End of petrol and hybrid
Discussion
jagnet said:
BricktopST205 said:
What is the highest peak demand the UK is capable of delivering?
The national grid's estimate of a 10% increase in demand from EVs relies on the majority of owners using smart charging at home. Hence the "we think" caveat. Without smart charging they describe meeting the additional demand as "challenging".otolith said:
If the battery is knackered and the car is beyond economic repair, it’s not worth 5k. It’s an ornament, or scrap.
They batteries will degrade - but gradually, by losing range. They’ll be useful so long as someone can make use of a car with that level of range remaining, but their value will decrease.
Seems to me that it will be an easier decline to manage than a car which is just going to suffer a terminal engine failure some day.
It's worth noting how the tech industry has overshadowed the automotive industry. You can't buy a Battery from Nissan for your 8 year old Leaf with 100,000 miles on it. There is no price or part number outside of the warranty system. It is like owning an 6 year old Apple product. They batteries will degrade - but gradually, by losing range. They’ll be useful so long as someone can make use of a car with that level of range remaining, but their value will decrease.
Seems to me that it will be an easier decline to manage than a car which is just going to suffer a terminal engine failure some day.
Evanivitch said:
BricktopST205 said:
Absolute no range anxiety what so ever. 20 litre Jerry can in the boot gives me a couple of hundred miles as backup if needed.
No range anxiety, but you carry a dangerous amount of fuel in a temporary container. Yeah, sure I believe you.WIL35 said:
I haven't read all the thread, but aren't we also going to be 'encouraged' to not use gas for central heating and domestic hot water? Presumably with a view to using electricity. Not sure how much extra that would demand.
a lot of energy, but the grid is expanding massively https://www.fircroft.com/blogs/7-upcoming-uk-based...
MrOrange said:
Without wanting to step into what might turn into well-trodden spat ground ...
Outliers of 22 year old, 200k Volvos are rare, but still valid, as are 500k mile EVs.
But, most regular folks wouldn’t have the mechanical sympathy or pro-active service and care - so many 15 year old appliance cars are knackered, bodged or rotten, fall into shed territory and often into the hands of those who do no service or work on them. Consequently they slide quite quickly into scrappage and are dead by age 15.
If you took the TCO over those 15 years it would be interesting to see the cost difference. This is just a thought experiment so don’t take it too literally. Or flame me, pls.
ICE, say 20k purchase, 150k miles at 40mpg = 23k fuel, 15 years of RFL and servicing, say 15k = 58k
EV, say 30k purchase, 150k miles = £4k leccy, 15 years of RFL and servicing, say £3k = £37k
Makes for a (guessed at numbers) compelling argument. And that assumes leccy cars are 50% more expensive like for like. EV cars will, at some point, have the same buy price as ICE, reducing the cost by (in this example) by 10k - making EV cars possibly cost less than half the price of an ICE.
This doesn’t help the “old cheap cars” discussion but does say a lot about the disruption that EVs offer.
You are assuming the Government will not impose a huge increase on either energy or a higher flat rate on all ICE cars (eg £200 per year). Outliers of 22 year old, 200k Volvos are rare, but still valid, as are 500k mile EVs.
But, most regular folks wouldn’t have the mechanical sympathy or pro-active service and care - so many 15 year old appliance cars are knackered, bodged or rotten, fall into shed territory and often into the hands of those who do no service or work on them. Consequently they slide quite quickly into scrappage and are dead by age 15.
If you took the TCO over those 15 years it would be interesting to see the cost difference. This is just a thought experiment so don’t take it too literally. Or flame me, pls.
ICE, say 20k purchase, 150k miles at 40mpg = 23k fuel, 15 years of RFL and servicing, say 15k = 58k
EV, say 30k purchase, 150k miles = £4k leccy, 15 years of RFL and servicing, say £3k = £37k
Makes for a (guessed at numbers) compelling argument. And that assumes leccy cars are 50% more expensive like for like. EV cars will, at some point, have the same buy price as ICE, reducing the cost by (in this example) by 10k - making EV cars possibly cost less than half the price of an ICE.
This doesn’t help the “old cheap cars” discussion but does say a lot about the disruption that EVs offer.
Edited by MrOrange on Friday 14th February 02:34
BricktopST205 said:
Evanivitch said:
BricktopST205 said:
Absolute no range anxiety what so ever. 20 litre Jerry can in the boot gives me a couple of hundred miles as backup if needed.
No range anxiety, but you carry a dangerous amount of fuel in a temporary container. Yeah, sure I believe you.Where you are carrying a full Jerry Can, is it lashed down ? has it been tested in impacts ? how old is it, how does it cope with high temperatures when the car is left in the sun ? does any vapour escape ?
It is probably ok but not as ok as not having it there, but I wouldnt want that in my car permanently, its added space and weight versus just planning putting fuel in, plus the additional risk of having 20 litres of extra flammable liquids in the car with you.
BricktopST205 said:
Nothing like a bit of spin is there. Who here fills up petrol "Smartly"? Very few I would imagine. That is the fantastic nature of it. You just wait till you are low and fill up.
I can imagine it now I need to charge my car to get the Chunnel to France only to get told I cannot charge now due to smart charging.
Which ever way you look at it we use 325TWh of electricity per year. To replace all fuel use tomorrow will need 140TWh to be produced to meet demand. That's a 43 % electricity increase per year. That's a massive jump whether you believe the grid can handle it or not.
But someone shared a link where the grid said it was OK so.............. I can imagine it now I need to charge my car to get the Chunnel to France only to get told I cannot charge now due to smart charging.
Which ever way you look at it we use 325TWh of electricity per year. To replace all fuel use tomorrow will need 140TWh to be produced to meet demand. That's a 43 % electricity increase per year. That's a massive jump whether you believe the grid can handle it or not.
Edited by BricktopST205 on Friday 14th February 09:41
xjay1337 said:
You are assuming the Government will not impose a huge increase on either energy or a higher flat rate on all ICE cars (eg £200 per year).
they wont tax electricity (I believe VAT was added as an EU requirement) they are aware there are a lot of people in fuel poverty and some pensioners die from not being able to afford energy, it would be politically suicide. xjay1337 said:
BricktopST205 said:
Nothing like a bit of spin is there. Who here fills up petrol "Smartly"? Very few I would imagine. That is the fantastic nature of it. You just wait till you are low and fill up.
I can imagine it now I need to charge my car to get the Chunnel to France only to get told I cannot charge now due to smart charging.
Which ever way you look at it we use 325TWh of electricity per year. To replace all fuel use tomorrow will need 140TWh to be produced to meet demand. That's a 43 % electricity increase per year. That's a massive jump whether you believe the grid can handle it or not.
But someone shared a link where the grid said it was OK so.............. I can imagine it now I need to charge my car to get the Chunnel to France only to get told I cannot charge now due to smart charging.
Which ever way you look at it we use 325TWh of electricity per year. To replace all fuel use tomorrow will need 140TWh to be produced to meet demand. That's a 43 % electricity increase per year. That's a massive jump whether you believe the grid can handle it or not.
Edited by BricktopST205 on Friday 14th February 09:41
ks many times Dave Hedgehog said:
xjay1337 said:
You are assuming the Government will not impose a huge increase on either energy or a higher flat rate on all ICE cars (eg £200 per year).
they wont tax electricity (I believe VAT was added as an EU requirement) they are aware there are a lot of people in fuel poverty and some pensioners die from not being able to afford energy, it would be politically suicide. Norway horrified as new rates make EV charging prices higher than petrol
A hike in electric car charging rates by European electric car fast charging network Ionity has drawn a backlash from the Norwegian electric car association Norsk Elbilforenig, which says the new rates make powering an electric vehicle more expensive than fuelling a similar petrol or diesel car..continues
robinessex said:
Never say never
Norway horrified as new rates make EV charging prices higher than petrol
A hike in electric car charging rates by European electric car fast charging network Ionity has drawn a backlash from the Norwegian electric car association Norsk Elbilforenig, which says the new rates make powering an electric vehicle more expensive than fuelling a similar petrol or diesel car..continues
So a charging network owned by the car industry that's doing everything it can to fight the introduction of EVs puts its price up massively so that they can quote parity running costs of EVs v ICE cars on fuel in their marketing has what to do with government policy? Norway horrified as new rates make EV charging prices higher than petrol
A hike in electric car charging rates by European electric car fast charging network Ionity has drawn a backlash from the Norwegian electric car association Norsk Elbilforenig, which says the new rates make powering an electric vehicle more expensive than fuelling a similar petrol or diesel car..continues
wisbech said:
So, the best thing for you will to be to buy one of the last new ICE cars for sale in 2035, and run it for as long as possible. Problem solved!
I am still not convinced the infrastructure will be in place to ban ICE car sales in 2035, but if it is I am hopeful that EVs will be so good by then that you would be crazy to buy an ICE car instead.I will be 61 by 2035 and I am sure driving will be no fun at all by then. If EVs are not the obvious choice, my plan is to buy two ICE cars that are exactly the same, put one in storage and then drive the other one until it is not economically viable any more. Then swap to the storage car and keep the original one for spare parts.
that should last me until I give up driving.
xjay1337 said:
BricktopST205 said:
Nothing like a bit of spin is there. Who here fills up petrol "Smartly"? Very few I would imagine. That is the fantastic nature of it. You just wait till you are low and fill up.
I can imagine it now I need to charge my car to get the Chunnel to France only to get told I cannot charge now due to smart charging.
Which ever way you look at it we use 325TWh of electricity per year. To replace all fuel use tomorrow will need 140TWh to be produced to meet demand. That's a 43 % electricity increase per year. That's a massive jump whether you believe the grid can handle it or not.
But someone shared a link where the grid said it was OK so.............. I can imagine it now I need to charge my car to get the Chunnel to France only to get told I cannot charge now due to smart charging.
Which ever way you look at it we use 325TWh of electricity per year. To replace all fuel use tomorrow will need 140TWh to be produced to meet demand. That's a 43 % electricity increase per year. That's a massive jump whether you believe the grid can handle it or not.
Edited by BricktopST205 on Friday 14th February 09:41
J4CKO said:
He does have a point though, your car will carry what 40 to 100 litres depending what it is, but its designed to carry that much, mounted low down and well secured, thoroughly crash tested, it has vent systems and various other safety features.
Where you are carrying a full Jerry Can, is it lashed down ? has it been tested in impacts ? how old is it, how does it cope with high temperatures when the car is left in the sun ? does any vapour escape ?
It is probably ok but not as ok as not having it there, but I wouldnt want that in my car permanently, its added space and weight versus just planning putting fuel in, plus the additional risk of having 20 litres of extra flammable liquids in the car with you.
I literally carry it for 18 hours and put it in my car if it is not needed at the end of the journey. This is merely when traveling the continent. I do not drive around permanently like this. Anyone who has driven in a foreign country especially when there have been closures on the autobahn will see why it is handy to have spare as detours do happen.Where you are carrying a full Jerry Can, is it lashed down ? has it been tested in impacts ? how old is it, how does it cope with high temperatures when the car is left in the sun ? does any vapour escape ?
It is probably ok but not as ok as not having it there, but I wouldnt want that in my car permanently, its added space and weight versus just planning putting fuel in, plus the additional risk of having 20 litres of extra flammable liquids in the car with you.
WIL35 said:
I haven't read all the thread, but aren't we also going to be 'encouraged' to not use gas for central heating and domestic hot water? Presumably with a view to using electricity. Not sure how much extra that would demand.
Quite a lot and I struggled to get my head around it to start with. The National Grid does anticipate increased use of hydrogen to mitigate some of that demand and it also anticipates substantial use of storage. Whilst thermal stores of up to 5k litres aren't uncommon elsewhere in Europe alongside biomass, the average UK homeowner has been rushing towards combi boilers as a means to free up space from even relatively small 200 litre tanks so imho the opportunity to store it directly as heat is much more limited in the UK than perhaps it might be elsewhere. Imho, whilst donning a bit of tinfoil, with smart charging and smart meters together with ever increasing amounts of wind power being built, the proposed ban on ICE in such a relatively short time is not just about vehicle pollution because the grid will need that battery capacity to smooth out the peaks and fill in demand. Throw "Vehicle 2 Grid" into the mix and you've got a huge buffer against intermittency for both periods of excess and inadequate supply without needing to build expensive dedicated storage thanks to EV owners supplying the storage FOC.
It's going to be interesting.
BricktopST205 said:
Also using the above as an example when the kids break up Dover is heaving with holiday makers. Would the grid simply turn around and go nope? Demand is too high.
Smart charging is a buzzword for saying lack of flexibility.
Clearly you know nothing about smart grid. You, the consumer has total flexibility. If you need your clothes out the drier before you go to bed, you set the drier to critical and pay standard tariff. If it will wait until morning you set the drier to smart, and get a preferential tariff. Same with charging your car. Your posts may have some valid points, but speaking from a position of ignorance doesn't help your case. Smart charging is a buzzword for saying lack of flexibility.
Edited by BricktopST205 on Friday 14th February 10:02
Edited by rick.e on Friday 14th February 12:00
Is there a standard plug/socket shape for EVs yet? Can I use the charger lead from a Kia in a Corsa or are they still at the VHS/Betamax stage?
Instead of going all out on road charging, surely a straightforward way of calculating the tax/VAT on fuel used in EVs is to have some sort of SIM installed into the handset of the plug/socket of each vehicle?
This, of course, will rely on some sort of universal standard across all vehicles though.
Instead of going all out on road charging, surely a straightforward way of calculating the tax/VAT on fuel used in EVs is to have some sort of SIM installed into the handset of the plug/socket of each vehicle?
This, of course, will rely on some sort of universal standard across all vehicles though.
Cold said:
Is there a standard plug/socket shape for EVs yet? Can I use the charger lead from a Kia in a Corsa or are they still at the VHS/Betamax stage?
Instead of going all out on road charging, surely a straightforward way of calculating the tax/VAT on fuel used in EVs is to have some sort of SIM installed into the handset of the plug/socket of each vehicle?
This, of course, will rely on some sort of universal standard across all vehicles though.
I am sure there will be someone along who knows more than me, but I believe there are three standards currentlyInstead of going all out on road charging, surely a straightforward way of calculating the tax/VAT on fuel used in EVs is to have some sort of SIM installed into the handset of the plug/socket of each vehicle?
This, of course, will rely on some sort of universal standard across all vehicles though.
1)CHAdeMO - Used by Japanese manufacturers
2)CSS - Used by European manufacturers , there are two standards of CSS charger Type 1 and Type 2
3)Tesla Supercharger - Used by Tesla.
Plus china have their own standard GB/T which is only used by Chinese manufacturers.
To add even more confusion, CCS may or may not have fast charge enabled which is signified by additional pins under the main charging lead. If you open the charging point of your car and these additional pins are blanked off then your car does not allow direct DC fast charging.
Simples!
Dave Hedgehog said:
hes already been debunked as talking bks many times
People read into what they want. National Grid says it will be fine depending if certain parameters are met. If we cannot smart charge then it will not work with current power levels. ks many times Dave Hedgehog said:
So a charging network owned by the car industry that's doing everything it can to fight the introduction of EVs puts its price up massively so that they can quote parity running costs of EVs v ICE cars on fuel in their marketing has what to do with government policy?
You are delusional if you really think EV will be cheaper than petrol for ever. Once the tipping point comes where EV's outsell ICE the government will tax as they will not lose the income generated from fuel. More than likely a tax per mile. Edited by BricktopST205 on Friday 14th February 12:22
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