End of petrol and hybrid
Discussion
Electric is coming, no doubt. Is 15yrs doable..... yes if you make it so. The change in just 5yrs has been significant. These things do have a tendency to accelerate once they get moving.
usn90 said:
Seen as this is for the sale of petrol cars, what do we foresee with the combustion engines already on the road?
Will there come a time where you can no longer use them?
do not want to part with my 355 but at the same time do not want an expensive paperweight in the garage
As with any technology, most will disappear. The numbers will reduce to the point the impact is inconsequential. 100.000 cars left that stay in the garage 95% of the time won't impact anything. Will there come a time where you can no longer use them?
do not want to part with my 355 but at the same time do not want an expensive paperweight in the garage
usn90 said:
Seen as this is for the sale of petrol cars, what do we foresee with the combustion engines already on the road?
Will there come a time where you can no longer use them?
do not want to part with my 355 but at the same time do not want an expensive paperweight in the garage
They still make leaded fuel for light aircraft which is a smaller niche than ICE cars will be. I wouldn't worry about not being able to get fuel for a long time yet.Will there come a time where you can no longer use them?
do not want to part with my 355 but at the same time do not want an expensive paperweight in the garage
Major Fallout said:
This would ruin my 4 generation family business, and leave me as a 50 year old unskilled person. I would have to go on benefits.
Unless someone can sort out a fuel you still need a small forecourt for.
Without wanting to come across as harsh, you currently have 15 years notice give or take, that should be long enough for anyone to either rethink the business model or retrain in something else entirely. Unless someone can sort out a fuel you still need a small forecourt for.
Jamescrs said:
Without wanting to come across as harsh, you currently have 15 years notice give or take, that should be long enough for anyone to either rethink the business model or retrain in something else entirely.
There's a market there tat'll really need very skilled, knowledgeable, well trained people in diagnosing and repairing EV's. Might be a career change in it for me...
Jamescrs said:
Without wanting to come across as harsh, you currently have 15 years notice give or take, that should be long enough for anyone to either rethink the business model or retrain in something else entirely.
theres going to be quite a change to the automotive industry - a lot of people will have to skill up Earl of Petrol said:
Proof if it were needed that we are governed by idiots.
EV’s are a knee jerk reaction to a long term problem. Shifting the burning of fossil fuel from vehicles to power stations is not the answer. Refining, developing and re-engineering the ICE to run on low or zero carbon (synthetic?) fuels is the way forward.
In 20 years the outskirts of of our towns and cities will be populated by yards full of expired lead-acid batteries, and believe me that mountain will grow faster than we can excavate it. Still we can always ship them off to China as we do with a lot of our waste now. Until we get someone intelligent, forward thinking and with the strength of character to stand up to the naysayers then we’re stuck with this type of pandering.
You know we can recycle batteries right?EV’s are a knee jerk reaction to a long term problem. Shifting the burning of fossil fuel from vehicles to power stations is not the answer. Refining, developing and re-engineering the ICE to run on low or zero carbon (synthetic?) fuels is the way forward.
In 20 years the outskirts of of our towns and cities will be populated by yards full of expired lead-acid batteries, and believe me that mountain will grow faster than we can excavate it. Still we can always ship them off to China as we do with a lot of our waste now. Until we get someone intelligent, forward thinking and with the strength of character to stand up to the naysayers then we’re stuck with this type of pandering.
And you realise that the batteries used in EV's are lithium based, not lead based, right?
Although I agree we could have synthetic fuels generated from e.g. fischer-tropsch methods, however this requires some novel metal catalysts and reasonably high temperatures, it's not going to be 100% yielding (100 molecules of input materials does not yield you 100 molecules of end product) and we're still burning something, re-releasing that carbon but (in the case of cities) in a concentrated area. Those vehicles will still need lubricants so really it's much of the same.
I'd be more than happy to have an EV. My wife wants one, so her next car will likely be a Kia e-Nero (unless the forthcoming VW ID-3 is better). We can charge it up from home, and since she only does 100 miles a week she can go two weeks on a full charge...at something like £9 - £10 max. Our energy supplier (claims to) gets energy from renewable sources (wind, solar, etc) so there we're being responsible. If I wanted, I could have some solar panels put on my roof to charge up batteries in the house which I could then use to discharge into the electric car during the evenings when it;s parked at home.
Whatever we do, though, we have to use resources and use energy. Windfarms dont just get made from thin air, for example.
Edited by thatdude on Tuesday 4th February 08:46
Jamescrs said:
Without wanting to come across as harsh, you currently have 15 years notice give or take, that should be long enough for anyone to either rethink the business model or retrain in something else entirely.
No not harsh at all, it’s just the cost to do so and the time while running a business. Major Fallout said:
This would ruin my 4 generation family business, and leave me as a 50 year old unskilled person. I would have to go on benefits.
Unless someone can sort out a fuel you still need a small forecourt for.
No it wont.Unless someone can sort out a fuel you still need a small forecourt for.
As most of the major fuel companies virtue signal and disband there petrol stations you will have a larger market share still.
Also at only 35 think plan for the future.
Invest it charging stations.
Invest in and EV service centre along side you garage.
Battery recycling
Become a hub for classic car meets. coffee, beard wax, synthetic vegan sausage rolls, things like that.
Major Fallout said:
This would ruin my 4 generation family business, and leave me as a 50 year old unskilled person. I would have to go on benefits.
Unless someone can sort out a fuel you still need a small forecourt for.
Dont like to see anyone lose their job/business but now is the time to adapt/diversify and look to the future, fuel stations will dwindle, they already have.Unless someone can sort out a fuel you still need a small forecourt for.
Things change, four generations and however many years is no defense against change, it happens whether we like it or not, there are casualties and there are winners from every scenario. Cars arent going anywhere and there will be services drivers of EV's need.
BBC headline uses the words ban on SALE of diesel, petrol and hybrid.
There is no mention anywhere of ban on EXISTING ICE cars but if the uptake of EV is too slow we can see that ICE car fuel taxation and social stigma will coerce us petrolheads out of our beloved ICE cars.
Common sense says that the number of ICE cars currently on the road will take many years to replace and at what environmental cost to scrap, recycle and produce the new EV?
The likes of Toyota and Lexus must be fairly pi$$ed at having led the hybrid technology for it to now be outlawed. I wonder how much budget they have to develop fully BEVs?
This announcement will probably cause a dip in people changing their cars with a knock onto the manufacturers and jobs in both manufacturing and servicing.
This needs to be handled and managed with some clear thinking on the impact to the industry.
I'm personally holding off swapping my old car and seeing which way the wind is blowing. This announcement has made my decision harder as I was migrating to the idea of a hybrid for range anxiety reasons, but that seems shortsighted now for residuals. What to do?
Is the EV technology/charging network developed enough? I don't want to buy into BETAmax.
There is no mention anywhere of ban on EXISTING ICE cars but if the uptake of EV is too slow we can see that ICE car fuel taxation and social stigma will coerce us petrolheads out of our beloved ICE cars.
Common sense says that the number of ICE cars currently on the road will take many years to replace and at what environmental cost to scrap, recycle and produce the new EV?
The likes of Toyota and Lexus must be fairly pi$$ed at having led the hybrid technology for it to now be outlawed. I wonder how much budget they have to develop fully BEVs?
This announcement will probably cause a dip in people changing their cars with a knock onto the manufacturers and jobs in both manufacturing and servicing.
This needs to be handled and managed with some clear thinking on the impact to the industry.
I'm personally holding off swapping my old car and seeing which way the wind is blowing. This announcement has made my decision harder as I was migrating to the idea of a hybrid for range anxiety reasons, but that seems shortsighted now for residuals. What to do?
Is the EV technology/charging network developed enough? I don't want to buy into BETAmax.
Earl of Petrol said:
In 20 years the outskirts of of our towns and cities will be populated by yards full of expired lead-acid batteries,
Er, no they wont, go to an approved and regulated scrap yard (they all are these days by and large) and with the right paperwork and ID, if you have a van full of batteries they will pay you pretty well for them, i have a mate who buys and sells mobility scooters who is always replacing dead batteries with new ones, he saves them up and does a trip to the scrappy and weights them in and comes away with a few hundred quid.Lead Acid batteries are normal car ones anyway, what you want are lithium Ion.
They will become prized like Lead Acid as they contain lots of useful materials, as has been said, the cells can be reused, or recycled. There just arent enough out there as yet to make it worthwhile.
There is a business opportunity here, get in on the ground floor, buying battery packs from crashed cars, there will be a ready market when EV's get more prevalent, it will be big business. Recycle the broken duff ones, refit decent ones to cars with expired batteries, though we arent there yet as they seem to hold up pretty well.
Its like ECU's, people were terrified of them, "I will stick to points and carbs", but you cant avoid it now, dont think anything comes with a carb, now there are lots of companies that buy/sell/code and repair ECU's. Same with turbos, injectors, DPF's and all the other complex stuff.
Batteries are pretty simple, loads of Tesla videos on Youtube, people disassembling and rebuilding, just dont short them out.
Hybrids will dwindle as battery tech, range and charge time improve, I always reckon they will look like those combined DVD/Video players in a few years.
I saw an interview on YouTube (on FullyCharged I think) which was very interesting. A majority of cars are financed. A lot of those deals depend on a future value of the vehicle. As more and more people want EVs (perhaps due to tax changes, social pressure, whatever) the future value of piston cars will drop towards zero. So the cost of a lease/finance on a new piston vehicle will rise. This will rapidly make it too expensive for many people to own new piston vehicles so EVs will take over.
I think we will see this starting this year with company vehicles and the very advantageous tax for EVs.
I think we will see this starting this year with company vehicles and the very advantageous tax for EVs.
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