RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

Author
Discussion

MikeM6

2,904 posts

52 months

Tuesday 4th February
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I wonder if this will drive up the value of interesting engined cars whilst everyone scrambles to get something interesting whilst they still can?

Legislation has already neutered the combustion engine anyway. Enjoy them whilst they last.

Aletsch

104 posts

93 months

Tuesday 4th February
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How is the electricity required to fuel all the non-ICE cars going to be generated? For a large part by coal-fired power stations, top job!!

simonrockman

5,873 posts

205 months

Tuesday 4th February
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cuda said:
Are they going to ban fossil fueled aircraft too?

Didn't think so...
There was an airline spokesman on Radio 4 this morning saying that the enemy is carbon, not flying. Using non-carbon emitting fuels, such as hydrogen, is a perfectly acceptable solution.

Fittster

18,826 posts

163 months

Tuesday 4th February
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Aletsch said:
How is the electricity required to fuel all the non-ICE cars going to be generated? For a large part by coal-fired power stations, top job!!
http://www.powerstations.uk/coal-countdown/

ALC 23

4 posts

35 months

Tuesday 4th February
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cuda said:
Are they going to ban fossil fueled aircraft too?

Didn't think so...
There is currently no viable commercial alternative, so no. There is huge effort for alternative fuels in aviation though.

Considering road transportation accounts for 21.6% of global CO2 emissions vs 2% for aviation it make sense to legislate against ICE.

Sad for petrol heads, at least we get to keep the old ones - which let's face it, are the best ones! smile

TheOrangePeril

412 posts

130 months

Tuesday 4th February
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GhostWKD said:
Portrait said:
Are they going to give everyone a drive to charge their car or am I just going to be tripping over cables for the rest of time.
Presumably they'll give electric cars to families that can only afford a dirt cheap runabout too?
In London you can already buy devices that lift a charging cable above the pavement so you can run it to a parking space outside a building. The actual long-term urban solution, though, is lamp post charging. Incredibly cheap and easy to install anywhere there's a parking space. Eventually inductive charging may well take over.

As for cheap little runabouts, by 2035 there will be a hell of a lot of EVs on the second hand market. I see no reason why they would be drastically more expensive than the 15yr old cars people buy and run cheaply now.

Inky81

86 posts

46 months

Tuesday 4th February
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It's still 15 years away, no need to panic. Look at the progress in EV's over the past decade or so, we've come from G-Wizz(e)s to electrified Porsches that set N'ring records. Manufacturers will continue to develop cars that appeal, and therefore sell, to the enthusiast. Elephant in the room is the sheer volume of Co2 required to manufacturer new EV's vs ICE vehicles however....

smartie93

74 posts

115 months

Tuesday 4th February
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RobM77 said:
It's a bit weird when your hobby and passion is legislated like this. I'm assuming it'll still be legal to own and drive internal combustion engine cars, just like steam engines have been for decades now. I wonder how fuel will be sold for those of us with internal combustion engine classics? How expensive will it become?...

I sincerely hope the government are attacking the far more polluting sectors of commercial transport such as artics and particularly ships, otherwise it's just a farce. I watched Harry Metcalfe's video on his classic Esprit the other day, and despite it being an old school 1970s engine, he worked out that it had output the same CO2 in its entire life that a typical artic outputs in a couple of months... (I think I've remembered that right - correct me if not).
They never legislated against "External combustion engines", they were made redundant by better technology. EVs superiority isn't so convincing at the minute and yes I've driven lots of Teslas.

For fuel I assume special order? Maybe they'll give us licences to store larger amounts of petrol at home? Maybe they'll sort out synthetic fuels, making classics carbon neutral. clap Either way the petrol station will likely exist at least into the early 2040s.

The lorry is a necessary evil, while the Lotus is a toy burning fuel for fun... can't really take the moral high ground.


RenesisEvo

3,090 posts

169 months

Tuesday 4th February
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ALC 23 said:
Considering road transportation accounts for 21.6% of global CO2 emissions vs 2% for aviation it make sense to legislate against ICE.
21.6 from road, 2 from air - so where does the other 76.4% come from? Should we not be focusing on that, considering it's 3x the problem? For years it's seemed like reducing carbon has been treated like Pareto's principle in reverse - going after the 20%, not the 80%. I don't see such drastic legislation being proposed for shipping, power generation or other industries (I've not looked either, mind - conscious there's a gap between what the media make us aware of, and reality).

Thom

1,696 posts

197 months

Tuesday 4th February
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The US, China and India are accountable for 85% of CO2 emissions, yet our "governments" are still trying to force EVs down our throats. Why don't they just go to hell.

Norfolk B-roads

1,715 posts

89 months

Tuesday 4th February
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Good stuff.

I look forward to watching EVs get exponentially less stty over the next 20 years.

Witchfinder

5,661 posts

202 months

Tuesday 4th February
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This is great news, it's just a shame it's not 2030 instead of 2035.

RenesisEvo

3,090 posts

169 months

Tuesday 4th February
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TheOrangePeril said:
As for cheap little runabouts, by 2035 there will be a hell of a lot of EVs on the second hand market. I see no reason why they would be drastically more expensive than the 15yr old cars people buy and run cheaply now.
The problem being a 15 year old ICE car has the same range (or sometimes, better, thanks to shrinking fuel tanks for WLTP) as a new one. Those used EVs will be fundamentally compromised - there's going to be a conundrum where a used BEV is flawless but also worthless because its battery is knackered so it has an unpalatable range, and the cost of changing the battery is more than various alternatives (e.g. buying a used ICE or hybrid, public transport for small distances, etc). What value do you place on a £100k-new Tesla that can now only do 30 miles? Replacement batteries will have to get a lot cheaper (difficult using rare materials of finite supply), otherwise a lot of early BEVs will become very shiny scrap. Look at mobile phones - how many are perfectly fine but get junked after 2 or 3 years because of the battery life. There's a very limited market for them - you buy new, you replace with new. The used market is tiny. EVs may go the same way - good news for manufacturers, bad news for the impoverished.


Edited by RenesisEvo on Tuesday 4th February 13:00

Kenny Powers

2,550 posts

77 months

Tuesday 4th February
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Inky81 said:
It's still 15 years away, no need to panic. Look at the progress in EV's over the past decade or so, we've come from G-Wizz(e)s to electrified Porsches that set N'ring records. Manufacturers will continue to develop cars that appeal, and therefore sell, to the enthusiast.
Are the automakers also going to buy everyone a nice semi-detached house with a driveway?

Still, at least those left behind unable to buy a new car will see fuel prices plummet. Oh...

rbozza

9 posts

32 months

Tuesday 4th February
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By the time this kicks in self driving cars will be the norm and many people won’t know how (or care) to drive a car. Or in fact own a car.

Driving a car will become like riding a horse, a once essential form of transport that will become purely a hobby for enthusiasts.

Get your head around it people, that be the future!

snorkel sucker

2,480 posts

153 months

Tuesday 4th February
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Cars always have been, and will continue to be, an easy target for lazy politicians trying to prove they are doing something about a problem, when all they are really doing is collectively mind-bending the masses to believe them.

Remember how we were sold the diesel dream until that blew up in a cloud of dirty particulate. The same will be true of EVs once people start to realise what embodied energy actually means. And that isn't even taking into account the elephant in the room that is EV infrastructure. How can a Parliament, who can't even get HS2 going, be expected to be able to overhaul the entire UK to suddenly accommodate a country full of EVs?

2035 is merely a target that kicks the can down the road far enough so these 'leaders' get another term in office.

That being said, maybe all this will see a further softening in the car market. I'll have my £15k M3 CSL in black rather than grey, please.

Numeric

494 posts

101 months

Tuesday 4th February
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I do suddenly feel a bit like a fox hunter!

Same day an article saying that steel mill growth will massivley increase carbon output in i think china? I agree something needs to be done - but also are people not just seeking the easy options rather than making real differences themselves in their personal lives - after all car enthusiasts are a very niche group (most people barely know which wheels are driven!)?

So how many people who say we must go electric also eat meat, like dairy products and have children?

I can't disagree with this legislation so long as infrastructure is put in place (more important than HS2 I'd venture) to cope - but could we also look at changing the real way that people live - driving a Tesla to the airport because you care about then environment then climbing on a Ryanair to use an Air BNB in Barcelona is hypocracy.




mgbond

6,724 posts

182 months

Tuesday 4th February
quotequote all
RenesisEvo said:
ALC 23 said:
Considering road transportation accounts for 21.6% of global CO2 emissions vs 2% for aviation it make sense to legislate against ICE.
21.6 from road, 2 from air - so where does the other 76.4% come from? Should we not be focusing on that, considering it's 3x the problem? For years it's seemed like reducing carbon has been treated like Pareto's principle in reverse - going after the 20%, not the 80%. I don't see such drastic legislation being proposed for shipping, power generation or other industries (I've not looked either, mind - conscious there's a gap between what the media make us aware of, and reality).
And there you have hit the nail on the Head. Give up meat (or drastically reduce consumption). This industry is the biggest producer of Co2 and we constantly cut down trees around the world to grow crops to feed the meat and therefore removing the very thing that takes the Co2 out of the atmosphere.
So, to all Petrol heads, stop eating meat. lol

torx_whisperer

104 posts

143 months

Tuesday 4th February
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I wonder if this well help or hurt classic car values.

sideways man

742 posts

87 months

Tuesday 4th February
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The price of electricity will go up. It must, as the government will loose a load of tax revenue selling less fuel.