Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
Huge impact on many people - just look at football alone: the hundreds of hourly paid staff who work in the catering concessions on match days, small army of hourly paid stewards for whom the forty or fifty quid once a fortnight is actually a big deal. Cleaning contractors. Coach and minibus operators who run away supporters to matches.
People who run companies supplying all the above . . . table linen to the hospitality area, match day programme printing, etc, etc. Most (all?) with fixed costs to service.
Multiply that across all the other impacted areas - travel, tourism, trade events, live music, etc - there's a huge economic impact on a lot of individuals in hugely diverse circumstances. And that - back to the point of the thread - is in all probability going to lead to some distressed selling of mid- and high-end cars.
But . . . presumably the government's response to a debt / debt serviceability / income / employment crisis will be inflationary . . . both deliberately and as a policy side effect. So if they weren't going down, car prices (as a number rather than as underlying value) would be going up?
(Both my wife and I were going to replace our cars this year, as their combined age is 39 and combined mileage 220,000. I see her in a Merc!).
But there are many, many, people right now worried sick about paying the rent, and how to afford a small birthday party or new shoes for their children. I hope our government's up to the challenge.
People who run companies supplying all the above . . . table linen to the hospitality area, match day programme printing, etc, etc. Most (all?) with fixed costs to service.
Multiply that across all the other impacted areas - travel, tourism, trade events, live music, etc - there's a huge economic impact on a lot of individuals in hugely diverse circumstances. And that - back to the point of the thread - is in all probability going to lead to some distressed selling of mid- and high-end cars.
But . . . presumably the government's response to a debt / debt serviceability / income / employment crisis will be inflationary . . . both deliberately and as a policy side effect. So if they weren't going down, car prices (as a number rather than as underlying value) would be going up?
(Both my wife and I were going to replace our cars this year, as their combined age is 39 and combined mileage 220,000. I see her in a Merc!).
But there are many, many, people right now worried sick about paying the rent, and how to afford a small birthday party or new shoes for their children. I hope our government's up to the challenge.
Already happening I think.
Recently sold my 1M looking to move onto a 981 Cayman GTS, so I’ve been getting ‘valuations’ for specific cars using WBAC, Autotrader, Arnold Clark, Evans Halshaw etc.
The accuracy of the specific value from each source might be debatable but across all 4 cars the average drop has been about £700 in two weeks - calculated from their trade sale, trade buy, part-ex and private sale guide prices/valuations.
Recently sold my 1M looking to move onto a 981 Cayman GTS, so I’ve been getting ‘valuations’ for specific cars using WBAC, Autotrader, Arnold Clark, Evans Halshaw etc.
The accuracy of the specific value from each source might be debatable but across all 4 cars the average drop has been about £700 in two weeks - calculated from their trade sale, trade buy, part-ex and private sale guide prices/valuations.
av185 said:
Doubtful that mainstream vanilla cars will take much of a hit pricewise and desirable stuff could actually strengthen ££ due to demand as folks trade out of their higher capital value high fuel consumption wheels and downgrade to more economical cars. As previously mentioned modern euro 6 diesels have held up very well as they are cheap to ved and fuel.
Dont forget vehicles are an absolute necessity for most.
Higher end stuff will inevitably take a hit depending on the vehicle but again this will be propped up by reduced manufacturing numbers by the likes of Ferrari (factory now closed ban on shorting Ferrari stock) and Porsche and rare restricted run cars as ever will indoubtedly hold up extremely well.
The other aspect to this is that it is a structural event bear stock market scenario (as opposed to a single event like sars etc) triggering a probable global recession which could well last on average 4+years hence folks pension funds will be feeling the pain and these markets could drop up to 60% from their peak suggesting much more loss of value on the financial markets is to come with a corresponding huge reduction in consumers confidence and spending ability.
With very few people buying cars with cash, if this goes the way that some are forecasting repo'd cars will saturate the market (at all levels of price point). The ease in which you can get credit for a car could come back to bite people if they cant work or work in consumer industries, and or get laid off. Banks and lenders not chasing debt will only last for so long. I think its possible to see a re run of 2008 if this plays out in some of the more alarming forecasted scenarios. Thats without oil hitting $32 and Iran escalating tensions. I personally will be looking for a nice S class at bottom book in 12 months time.....if I make it through Covid19 and being in a high risk category. Dont forget vehicles are an absolute necessity for most.
Higher end stuff will inevitably take a hit depending on the vehicle but again this will be propped up by reduced manufacturing numbers by the likes of Ferrari (factory now closed ban on shorting Ferrari stock) and Porsche and rare restricted run cars as ever will indoubtedly hold up extremely well.
The other aspect to this is that it is a structural event bear stock market scenario (as opposed to a single event like sars etc) triggering a probable global recession which could well last on average 4+years hence folks pension funds will be feeling the pain and these markets could drop up to 60% from their peak suggesting much more loss of value on the financial markets is to come with a corresponding huge reduction in consumers confidence and spending ability.
lj04 said:
I made the same mistake selling my S1, will probably regret selling my S2.5 in a few years but for the V6 itch
Actually a bit surprised the S1 is still fairly affordable. They did make quite a few of them of course, but OK ones seem to be available from around 12k (as long as ultra low mileage isn't needed)? Still a very decent buy IMO. If they ever go back down to 08/09 prices, I need to find a nice little hangar to start a collection 
.av185 said:
Meanwhile across the pond the Dow Jones is up 10%.
Spanish Flu killed 50 Million ! "However, the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1918 and 1919, you can see that the stock market was relatively unaffected by any of the three waves of the Spanish flu"
Can someone explain why Italy and Iran are more affected than others ? -other than both starting with a capital I (and having a letter a in them) , i can't see any connection/explanation.Neither countries are any dramatically different from their neighbours i would have thought.
tali1 said:
Spanish Flu killed 50 Million ! "However, the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1918 and 1919, you can see that the stock market was relatively unaffected by any of the three waves of the Spanish flu"
Can someone explain why Italy and Iran are more affected than others ? -other than both starting with a capital I (and having a letter a in them) , i can't see any connection/explanation.Neither countries are any dramatically different from their neighbours i would have thought.
tali1 said:
Spanish Flu killed 50 Million ! "However, the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1918 and 1919, you can see that the stock market was relatively unaffected by any of the three waves of the Spanish flu"
Can someone explain why Italy and Iran are more affected than others ? -other than both starting with a capital I (and having a letter a in them) , i can't see any connection/explanation.Neither countries are any dramatically different from their neighbours i would have thought.
No idea about Iran though.
tali1 said:
Can someone explain why Italy and Iran are more affected than others ? -other than both starting with a capital I (and having a letter a in them) , i can't see any connection/explanation.Neither countries are any dramatically different from their neighbours i would have thought.
Italy - possibly 'just' a head start for the disease - popular with Chinese tourists, and business travel to/from automotive and other industries re component supply. Virus got a hold before anybody knew what they were dealing with.Iran? I'm not aware of what interchange of individuals there were with China - any Chinese infrastructure projects going on? And then bad luck / bad timing as infection coincided with internal moves for religious festivals, etc? (Speculating only!).
Octoposse said:
Italy - possibly 'just' a head start for the disease - popular with Chinese tourists, and business travel to/from automotive and other industries re component supply. Virus got a hold before anybody knew what they were dealing with.
Iran? I'm not aware of what interchange of individuals there were with China - any Chinese infrastructure projects going on? And then bad luck / bad timing as infection coincided with internal moves for religious festivals, etc? (Speculating only!).
You also have to remember Italy is very, very tight knit family wise. Iran? I'm not aware of what interchange of individuals there were with China - any Chinese infrastructure projects going on? And then bad luck / bad timing as infection coincided with internal moves for religious festivals, etc? (Speculating only!).
Many have their older family live with them under one roof, this will make a massive difference.
Iran have a massive amount of Chinese there, nearly every construction project is being done by the Chinese.
Some really self centred goofy nerdy replies here.
Here is the world facing a pandemic and all some can think about is house prices and the general value of personal possessions ffs.
No one 'owns' anything, all of it is simply borrowed for the short period we are all here for.
We all come with nothing and all go with nothing..
Here is the world facing a pandemic and all some can think about is house prices and the general value of personal possessions ffs.
No one 'owns' anything, all of it is simply borrowed for the short period we are all here for.
We all come with nothing and all go with nothing..
I actually feel fortunate to not have any interesting cars at the moment.
I’m not sure if it was good or bad reasoning on my part, but impending Brexit really spooked me with regards to the economy and business in general.
In late 2018 I sold my 3 Porsches, 2 of which were classic 911’s.
Then in mid 2019 I sold my business, and also a rental property I owned.
I got near enough top money for the cars as this was just as the arse was about to fall out of numerous Porsche models, did well out of the business sale, and was extremely surprised to sell the rental property easy enough.
Right now me and my wife have two newish (but not expensive) daily drivers.
I’m still on the Porsche forums, and it is what can only be described as a bloodbath, and that’s just been the pre-virus price falls.
I absolutely do not wish for the economy to take a hit, but if it does (either by a shoddy Brexit trade deal or a pandemic) then it may be a good time to buy back into a couple of sportscars/supercars.
I’m not sure if it was good or bad reasoning on my part, but impending Brexit really spooked me with regards to the economy and business in general.
In late 2018 I sold my 3 Porsches, 2 of which were classic 911’s.
Then in mid 2019 I sold my business, and also a rental property I owned.
I got near enough top money for the cars as this was just as the arse was about to fall out of numerous Porsche models, did well out of the business sale, and was extremely surprised to sell the rental property easy enough.
Right now me and my wife have two newish (but not expensive) daily drivers.
I’m still on the Porsche forums, and it is what can only be described as a bloodbath, and that’s just been the pre-virus price falls.
I absolutely do not wish for the economy to take a hit, but if it does (either by a shoddy Brexit trade deal or a pandemic) then it may be a good time to buy back into a couple of sportscars/supercars.
nickfrog said:
ninepoint2 said:
nickfrog said:
TimoMak said:
Lots of lightly used Honda Jazzes to hit the market in 2-3 months ?
You really maintain your reputation as a t
t with gusto. 
oh and you don't offend me, just fill me with despair that you think that way.. 
A1VDY said:
Some really self centred goofy nerdy replies here.
Here is the world facing a pandemic and all some can think about is house prices and the general value of personal possessions ffs.
No one 'owns' anything, all of it is simply borrowed for the short period we are all here for.
We all come with nothing and all go with nothing..
Says the man who proudly proclaims his car to have “£10k options when new“ in his profile.Here is the world facing a pandemic and all some can think about is house prices and the general value of personal possessions ffs.
No one 'owns' anything, all of it is simply borrowed for the short period we are all here for.
We all come with nothing and all go with nothing..
Amazing.
Price won’t take a knock on classic stuff as no one's going to sell now . If anything I think there will be less availability on the market , as people will just store assets away .
Ps, I Liked the Honda jazz joke
People need to Lighten up it’s only a mild flu it’s just much more catchable .
Ps, I Liked the Honda jazz joke
People need to Lighten up it’s only a mild flu it’s just much more catchable .
Weekendrebuild said:
Price won’t take a knock on classic stuff as no one's going to sell now . If anything I think there will be less availability on the market , as people will just store assets away .
Ps, I Liked the Honda jazz joke
People need to Lighten up it’s only a mild flu it’s just much more catchable .
They will store assets away unless they need the money?Ps, I Liked the Honda jazz joke
People need to Lighten up it’s only a mild flu it’s just much more catchable .
Weekendrebuild said:
jamoor said:
They will store assets away unless they need the money?
True but generally people with assets like that have money to begin with . They aren’t rolling in cash, and whatever they have stuck in their ‘one big purchase’ is pretty much all their spare money.
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