Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Author
Discussion

Vroomer

Original Poster:

1,463 posts

133 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Sa Calobra said:
Governments can and do fail with no money to pay staff and any money paid make be worthless if inflation is rampant.
Give one example of a European government failing since WWII.
crosseyedlion said:
Vroomer said:
Give one example of a European government failing since WWII.
Give one example of a pandemic causing a complete global shutdown for months since ww2?
I haven't got one, why did you think I had? Sa Calobra's statement was "Governments can and do fail", so I asked for an example.

So

17,765 posts

175 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
R.Sole said:
Deep Thought said:
R.Sole said:
Vroomer said:
Deep Thought said:
Ironically hes probably better off on his 80% now than if he was working and paying for commuting costs, fuel, going out, etc, etc.
I think you've forgotten the £2500 pm salary cap
And I think there is tax and NI to come off the £500pw also!
Good points well made by you both - i hadnt had my first coffee when i typed it. getmecoat
Also many small companies that furloughed staff because they were told the government would cover it did nor realise it may be not until the end of April and by that time they will be out of cash and the staff will not get anything and they will be 4 weeks further down the line in getting benefits.
The government does seem to be big on making these "unprecedented announcements" and then not delivering on them.

Businesses, self-employed included, need money NOW in many cases.

Does anyone know why the government is delaying payment?

Vroomer

Original Poster:

1,463 posts

133 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
So said:
The government does seem to be big on making these "unprecedented announcements" and then not delivering on them.

Businesses, self-employed included, need money NOW in many cases.

Does anyone know why the government is delaying payment?
Because it's very, very complicated. And it's taxpayers' money they are giving away, it doesn't come from a mysterious pot.

So

17,765 posts

175 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
So said:
The government does seem to be big on making these "unprecedented announcements" and then not delivering on them.

Businesses, self-employed included, need money NOW in many cases.

Does anyone know why the government is delaying payment?
Because it's very, very complicated. And it's taxpayers' money they are giving away, it doesn't come from a mysterious pot.
Do you know for sure that it's the complexity? And what was the purpose of the "mysterious pot" comment? We know it's taxpayers' money, but government appears to be making promises and not delivering on them within a relevant time frame.

Limpet

3,791 posts

114 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
So said:
government appears to be making promises and not delivering on them within a relevant time frame.
Standard political modus operandi.

among my admittedly limited family and social circle, I don't know a private sector employer that isn't taking advantage of this scheme to some extent, so the ramifications of any 'misunderstanding' will be enormous.

jsf

16,531 posts

189 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
R.Sole said:
Vroomer said:
Deep Thought said:
Ironically hes probably better off on his 80% now than if he was working and paying for commuting costs, fuel, going out, etc, etc.
I think you've forgotten the £2500 pm salary cap
And I think there is tax and NI to come off the £500pw also!
Good points well made by you both - i hadnt had my first coffee when i typed it. getmecoat
And pension contributions.

jsf

16,531 posts

189 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Give one example of a European government failing since WWII.
Russia. They defaulted on their sovereign bonds.

The majority of the old Soviet union was a complete basket case for decades when it fell apart.

jsf

16,531 posts

189 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
gizlaroc said:
That is good news.

It is shame that it takes a pandemic and for it to effect everyone for them to allow this, this is one of the EU rules that seemed bonkers to me.

Every country needs to be able to give financial support to businesses in times of need to protect their economy and their people.

Strange that something so awful may well see the EU project slip back to what it should have been in the first place. Fingers crossed.
So much for the EU level playing field rules being worth anything when the real world catches up with the eurocrats.

SidewaysSi

7,113 posts

187 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
Huge disconnect from Johnson's mouth and the workings of the civil service to make things happen.

So

17,765 posts

175 months

Wednesday 1st April
quotequote all
SidewaysSi said:
Huge disconnect from Johnson's mouth and the workings of the civil service to make things happen.
I said this on another thread this morning and was jumped on, because "it's very difficult and it's taxpayers' money".

But I agree, the action is not matching the rhetoric at present.

Sa Calobra

29,433 posts

164 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
SidewaysSi said:
Huge disconnect from Johnson's mouth and the workings of the civil service to make things happen.
How would you do it?

Fast moving unprecedented times outside of a world war. Something you say takes more than a few weeks to set up. If you rush you lose checks and balances. There's a huge risk of fraud.

Some people now want their commission paying (something that's not even guaranteed contractually) - how do you please every man and makes changes that takes thousands of people to enact?

For instance the covid fines and the mechanics of this are still being ironed out in some forces.

JulianHJ

8,256 posts

215 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

smartypants

44,014 posts

122 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
Ostrich policy?

Fezzaman

514 posts

146 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
JulianHJ said:
I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.
It was mentioned here or some other thread. I can't say I buy in to that though. How is it any different to the credit rating agencies that stuck to their ratings? Or the banks that conveniently choose not to mark to market until they've got their own position on the right side of the trade?

I'd be willing to bet once all the players at said trade briefing have shifted their stock (most likely to some average Joe Public to not harm inter-trade relationships), the CAP/HPI pricing will suddenly change to suit them.

ghost83

3,740 posts

143 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
JulianHJ said:
I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.
It’s ok saying it will be frozen and no problem but in reality a lot of companies are going to go to the wall, a lot of people are going to be out of work, a car or supercar will not be a priority so sales will go down and therefore so will prices till they do sell, you will see car dealerships offering fantastic finance deals and discounts to get cars sold,

crosseyedlion

1,970 posts

151 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
ghost83 said:
JulianHJ said:
I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.
It’s ok saying it will be frozen and no problem but in reality a lot of companies are going to go to the wall, a lot of people are going to be out of work, a car or supercar will not be a priority so sales will go down and therefore so will prices till they do sell, you will see car dealerships offering fantastic finance deals and discounts to get cars sold,
Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.

Sa Calobra

29,433 posts

164 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
crosseyedlion said:
Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.
Is anyone actually open to even sell at the moment or indie traders even to still be around in four months time?

Earthdweller

4,822 posts

79 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
The first thing that will go is the fancy car .. and the last thing to come back

Anecdotally, I was having a chat with a friend last night, who has just been offered an M4 for what it owes the guy who has it .. he’s a small businessman and his entire cash flow has gone

It’s a fire sale to keep a roof over his head

I very much doubt he’s alone

crosseyedlion

1,970 posts

151 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
Sa Calobra said:
crosseyedlion said:
Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.
Is anyone actually open to even sell at the moment or indie traders even to still be around in four months time?
You can still buy and sell cars if you want. They have to be transported professionally.

GT72

4,117 posts

132 months

Thursday 2nd April
quotequote all
JulianHJ said:
I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.
Not a chance.

The reason prices are frozen at the moment and for the duration is that there's no market, they can't actually work out what the impact is. Which is fair enough, it will be the same as most industries. However, the concept it'll be back to normal once we're out is comical.

In my industry whilst lots of people are being furloughed, lots are being made redundant and lots are having company wide paycuts, which coupled the with lack of bonus next year will have a huge impact on peoples disposable income in the short term.

I've cancelled my order of a new car and am unlikely to resurrect that purchase for a few years, assuming I still have a job in 12 months.