Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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So

26,360 posts

223 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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Auto810graphy said:
Earthdweller said:
The first thing that will go is the fancy car .. and the last thing to come back

Anecdotally, I was having a chat with a friend last night, who has just been offered an M4 for what it owes the guy who has it .. he’s a small businessman and his entire cash flow has gone

It’s a fire sale to keep a roof over his head

I very much doubt he’s alone
To be fair as a finance broker we have been offered quite a few cars and vans in the last 10 days. Normally we would jump at the chance but we have nowhere to go with them and don’t want the risk of having them just in case the market does suffer badly.
Assuming your response is typical, that suggests that prices will take a bath quite soon.

gizlaroc

17,251 posts

225 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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the-photographer said:
Sorry, I meant CAR brands, not the dealer names
Same thing.

One of the German groups.

Already mentioned they are facing huge financial exposure.

JulianHJ

8,748 posts

263 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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growlerowl said:
Looking at industry websites, some are even saying used prices will *increase* due to lack of supply of new cars due to factory shutdown. I always suspected those scheming used car dealers were behind all of this!
This was also mentioned in the CAP HPI briefing.

Auto810graphy

1,405 posts

93 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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the-photographer said:
Could you say which brands are doing this?
Am intrigued which dealer group as hardly anybody is buying or selling within the trade and to take bids would be pointless.

growlerowl

334 posts

50 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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HTP99 said:
Nothing to do with "scheming used car dealers", prices of used car rose after the recession, its supply and demand.

People buy because they have to, not because they want to, they don't want to spend on new so they buy a used car, demand goes up, as do prices.


Edited by HTP99 on Thursday 2nd April 10:35
It wasn't clear to you that I was kidding?

Well for the sake of clarity: I was kidding when I suggested used car dealers were behind a conspiracy to unleash a global pandemic in order to shut down new car production and cause used car prices to rise.

So

26,360 posts

223 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
growlerowl said:
HTP99 said:
Nothing to do with "scheming used car dealers", prices of used car rose after the recession, its supply and demand.

People buy because they have to, not because they want to, they don't want to spend on new so they buy a used car, demand goes up, as do prices.


Edited by HTP99 on Thursday 2nd April 10:35
It wasn't clear to you that I was kidding?

Well for the sake of clarity: I was kidding when I suggested used car dealers were behind a conspiracy to unleash a global pandemic in order to shut down new car production and cause used car prices to rise.
If used cars were an index, I'd not be going long on it at the moment.

HTP99

22,608 posts

141 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
growlerowl said:
HTP99 said:
Nothing to do with "scheming used car dealers", prices of used car rose after the recession, its supply and demand.

People buy because they have to, not because they want to, they don't want to spend on new so they buy a used car, demand goes up, as do prices.


Edited by HTP99 on Thursday 2nd April 10:35
It wasn't clear to you that I was kidding?

Well for the sake of clarity: I was kidding when I suggested used car dealers were behind a conspiracy to unleash a global pandemic in order to shut down new car production and cause used car prices to rise.
I read it as scheming used car dealers keeping values high during/after the current issues.


Edited by HTP99 on Thursday 2nd April 11:24

gizlaroc

17,251 posts

225 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
Auto810graphy said:
Am intrigued which dealer group as hardly anybody is buying or selling within the trade and to take bids would be pointless.
Brand owned by VAG.

Well sealed bids.
So wouldn’t be surprised if they suddenly turn up again in a few months.

No reserve is BS surely?


growlerowl

334 posts

50 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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So said:
Assuming your response is typical, that suggests that prices will take a bath quite soon.
Interesting question is whether there will be any used car dealers left in 6-12 months' time if big price drops are in the pipeline. Will they be forced to liquidate and refinance? If so where will the finance come from?

stevensdrs

3,212 posts

201 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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New car registrations for April last year 161,064. Anyone want to hazard a guess what it will be for April 2020?

So

26,360 posts

223 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
growlerowl said:
So said:
Assuming your response is typical, that suggests that prices will take a bath quite soon.
Interesting question is whether there will be any used car dealers left in 6-12 months' time if big price drops are in the pipeline. Will they be forced to liquidate and refinance? If so where will the finance come from?
I don't know, on either count.

But you cannot help but think they'll be fewer in number.

JakeT

5,448 posts

121 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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stevensdrs said:
New car registrations for April last year 161,064. Anyone want to hazard a guess what it will be for April 2020?
I'm going with a lofty 6.

Fezzaman

552 posts

194 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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Auto810graphy said:
To be fair as a finance broker we have been offered quite a few cars and vans in the last 10 days. Normally we would jump at the chance but we have nowhere to go with them and don’t want the risk of having them just in case the market does suffer badly at the current prices they've been offered.
EFA
Surely the stuff you have been offered you would 'jump at the chance' at a particular price (assuming logistics of delivery and ownership admin are possible)? At what price would you take the risk?

stevensdrs

3,212 posts

201 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
JakeT said:
stevensdrs said:
New car registrations for April last year 161,064. Anyone want to hazard a guess what it will be for April 2020?
I'm going with a lofty 6.
Maybe a bullish forecast. laugh

ghost83

5,485 posts

191 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
Also something else which will affect long term is the fact when all this is over taxes for self employed people are going up according to the chancellor he wants a level playing field for everyone so if taxes go up profits go down wage bills have gone up due to living wage etc etc, company directors/owners possibly won’t have the same money they once had,

Very stressful times ahead for a lot of people and businesses, even more so for those that aren’t legit with their books as they won’t get 80% of their true income

kdsl

154 posts

121 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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ghost83 said:
Also something else which will affect long term is the fact when all this is over taxes for self employed people are going up according to the chancellor he wants a level playing field for everyone so if taxes go up profits go down wage bills have gone up due to living wage etc etc, company directors/owners possibly won’t have the same money they once had,

Very stressful times ahead for a lot of people and businesses, even more so for those that aren’t legit with their books as they won’t get 80% of their true income
That speech was in reference to IR35 and those in avoidance, not all self employed. Self employed builders, plumbers, Sparky's and the like are not affected. That's way way I received it anyway.

suffolk009

5,441 posts

166 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
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Sa Calobra said:
How can they go up when people will have maxed out credit or have no jobs or their employers are struggling?

It's not like coming out of a recession. We are decimating our economy and then entering a recession that'll follow covid.
Sorry in advance to be pedantic....

But "decimating" is really losing one in ten (it comes from the way Roman leaders used to motivate a lazy army: line them all up along the parapet of a high bridge and push every tenth soldier to their deaths).

There may well be more than 1 in 10 laid off, and the economy is likely to suffer worse than 10%. All this even without Brexit.

Sa Calobra

37,195 posts

212 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
Pandemic job loses, then resulting deep recession (we won't have any money left go stimulate the economy) then brexit.

It'll be more than 10%. It's a perfect storm.

Brexit will be delayed. It has to be now.

Boris won't though. His whole principle upon winning the election was based on out now.

Otherwise baton down. It's going to be a 1920's style US depression.

Barchettaman

6,325 posts

133 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
suffolk009 said:
Sorry in advance to be pedantic....

But "decimating" is really losing one in ten (it comes from the way Roman leaders used to motivate a lazy army: line them all up along the parapet of a high bridge and push every tenth soldier to their deaths).



There may well be more than 1 in 10 laid off, and the economy is likely to suffer worse than 10%. All this even without Brexit.
clap

Absolutely correct, but the correct definition of ‘decimate’ is so little-known, and the word so consistently misused, as to render any attempt at correction pretty pointless.

suffolk009

5,441 posts

166 months

Thursday 2nd April 2020
quotequote all
ghost83 said:
Also something else which will affect long term is the fact when all this is over taxes for self employed people are going up according to the chancellor he wants a level playing field for everyone so if taxes go up profits go down wage bills have gone up due to living wage etc etc, company directors/owners possibly won’t have the same money they once had,

Very stressful times ahead for a lot of people and businesses, even more so for those that aren’t legit with their books as they won’t get 80% of their true income
If the chancellor wants a level playing field and the self employed to pay equivalent taxes, he'd better figure out how to pay the self employed their holidays, sick days, pensions and offer them all the same other benefits..

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