Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
Anonymous-poster said:
ChocolateFrog said:
jammy-git said:
Maybe not m quite the topic of this thread, but I do wonder how used car prices are going to be affected as we move towards renewables; electric and hydrogen cars.
I'd imagine it'll be like cars that ran on leaded fuel. Eventually we just won't be able to get diesel, and petrol will only be available from specialists, and the vast majority of today's cars will become totally obsolete.
Horsey related stuff hasn't disappeared and they're essentially useless and obsolete. I'd imagine it'll be like cars that ran on leaded fuel. Eventually we just won't be able to get diesel, and petrol will only be available from specialists, and the vast majority of today's cars will become totally obsolete.
I bet it's an industry worth a billion or two.
jammy-git said:
Anonymous-poster said:
ChocolateFrog said:
jammy-git said:
Maybe not m quite the topic of this thread, but I do wonder how used car prices are going to be affected as we move towards renewables; electric and hydrogen cars.
I'd imagine it'll be like cars that ran on leaded fuel. Eventually we just won't be able to get diesel, and petrol will only be available from specialists, and the vast majority of today's cars will become totally obsolete.
Horsey related stuff hasn't disappeared and they're essentially useless and obsolete. I'd imagine it'll be like cars that ran on leaded fuel. Eventually we just won't be able to get diesel, and petrol will only be available from specialists, and the vast majority of today's cars will become totally obsolete.
I bet it's an industry worth a billion or two.
paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.
Cheers Paddy, a useful post, finally.
paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.
Very useful. Thank you for that.Given that most people from all sides of the discussion seem to agree that the economic impact of this whole thing is going to take at least 6 months to play out, at -1.6% per week that should see a 40% drop in 6 months time.
mike74 said:
Very useful. Thank you for that.
Given that most people from all sides of the discussion seem to agree that the economic impact of this whole thing is going to take at least 6 months to play out, at -1.6% per week that should see a 40% drop in 6 months time.
And thats a great example of exactly why you shouldnt take a small snapshot of data taken over a very small timeframe which draws a conclusion from it based on many assumptions and with no access to the underlying data, and then extrapolate that out over a predefined timeframe.Given that most people from all sides of the discussion seem to agree that the economic impact of this whole thing is going to take at least 6 months to play out, at -1.6% per week that should see a 40% drop in 6 months time.
Its interesting data yes, but very important to keep in context.
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 24th May 17:46
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 24th May 17:48
Deep Thought said:
And thats exactly why you shouldnt take a small snapshot of data taken over a very small timeframe which draws a conclusion from it based on many assumptions and with no access to the underlying data, and then extrapolate that out over a predefined timeframe.
Agreed.I suppose a far more accurate method of data gathering and analysis would be to put a car up for sale, then withdraw it, but not before acting like some weird voyeuristic stalker with far too much spare time on their hands by searching for the profiles of the supposedly interested parties on Facebook
mike74 said:
Agreed.
I suppose a far more accurate method of data gathering and analysis would be to put a car up for sale, then withdraw it, but not before acting like some weird voyeuristic stalker with far too much spare time on their hands by searching for the profiles of the supposedly interested parties on Facebook
I didnt draw any conclusions about the market as a whole based on a very small statistic set over a very small timeframe, unlike what you did.I suppose a far more accurate method of data gathering and analysis would be to put a car up for sale, then withdraw it, but not before acting like some weird voyeuristic stalker with far too much spare time on their hands by searching for the profiles of the supposedly interested parties on Facebook
I would have thought far too much spare time is what most people have at the moment.
If i'm considering letting someone come to my home right now, i want to have a little bit of an understanding about them, and make a judgement on whether they're likely to be wasting their effort and mine by getting here and then having to say "well i've my own car to sell first" or "i know you've it up for £3K but i'll give you two grand for it mate as i want to resell it for profit" or "i'll need to go and check my insurance first" (all of which i've had people do by the way, and x100 more). If you dont have those concerns then good for you.
I changed my mind. No children were harmed, no puppies got hurt. I advised them of that long before they attempted to get in a car to come see me.
Didnt think that needed reiterated again, but hopefully you can grasp that this time.
Oh, and what conclusions are you drawing then about the value of 2019 C63s in 6 months time then based on that compelling data?
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 24th May 18:00
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 24th May 18:09
jammy-git said:
I think we'll see two step changes with the switch to EVs.
The first one will come soon, where for anyone well off, getting an EV and solar panels will make far more sense than leasing another BMW, Audi or Merc.
The second step change will be with automonous EVS. Once they come along, for anyone on a low income it'll make more sense to just pay a taxi charge fee as and when they need to go somewhere, than own their own car.
when autonomous EVs come along.. LOL and admire optimismThe first one will come soon, where for anyone well off, getting an EV and solar panels will make far more sense than leasing another BMW, Audi or Merc.
The second step change will be with automonous EVS. Once they come along, for anyone on a low income it'll make more sense to just pay a taxi charge fee as and when they need to go somewhere, than own their own car.
the public expectation of capabilities autonomous, vs reality.. and likely future reality. gap - is enormous..
you might as well be waiting for your flying car..... over the horizon, a since the 1960s
BJWoods said:
jammy-git said:
I think we'll see two step changes with the switch to EVs.
The first one will come soon, where for anyone well off, getting an EV and solar panels will make far more sense than leasing another BMW, Audi or Merc.
The second step change will be with automonous EVS. Once they come along, for anyone on a low income it'll make more sense to just pay a taxi charge fee as and when they need to go somewhere, than own their own car.
when autonomous EVs come along.. LOL and admire optimismThe first one will come soon, where for anyone well off, getting an EV and solar panels will make far more sense than leasing another BMW, Audi or Merc.
The second step change will be with automonous EVS. Once they come along, for anyone on a low income it'll make more sense to just pay a taxi charge fee as and when they need to go somewhere, than own their own car.
the public expectation of capabilities autonomous, vs reality.. and likely future reality. gap - is enormous..
you might as well be waiting for your flying car..... over the horizon, a since the 1960s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adwrz9OXlkQ
jamoor said:
but ity needs to be 'perfect' - the bit missing, is the hardest bit making it impossible.. Or impractical real wrld video is 'perfect conditions, rain, mist, snow, fog, dark, etc,etc,etcand throwing/collecting more data at it will just make this harder and more expensive.. morte processing power could make this harder.
let alone human behaviour.. and pedestrians gaming car behaviour, when more on the road. new laws, road layouts wil be needed. mixing human drivers and autonomy, is going to be really interesting, people know how people react, autonomous cars will be not be quitethe same. Imagine the problems with lots of autonomous cars? do they interact, do they 'negotiate' at the classic everyone wants to turn right at a roundabout? are they programmed more aggressively, to get out of junctions.. would a BMW AI, be more agressive than a Volvo one?
think of the issue arising when autonomous cars start interacting with each other (I encountered this weird type of emergent behaviour, with robots, at Reading Cybernetics department, decades ago)
All the car manufactures have gone about it the wrong way.. what is needed is autonomous roads..interacting with autonomous cars.. make the road the intensive hardware/processing beast, supplying information to the cars. much easier. an industry wide standard to conform to for the cars, to use the roads. and the 'FAST' lane... (100mph plus? could even be petrol, diesel, hydrogen car, autonomy should not bbe linked to an EV mentality. imagine Dual carriageway, and motorways. sensors, etc,etc, transponders in cars, communication from the road to cars on the road.. potential for very high speeds, and then autonomous cars, peel off onto non autonomous roads and hand controls back to the driver.. I'd happily have an EV, but why would I want to pay for autonomy, that seems obligatory for car manufactures to pretend to offer aswell..
Dump all the electronics. make the EV as light, simple as possible, basic driver aids. make it cheaper lighter. and dumb.
lets have lot's of electric cars first.. make them cheap light and no more 'intelligent' than the average Astra/focus/golf is..
Autonomy as a must have feature (more expensive evs) I think is holding EVs back. all imho
Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 18:21
Edited by BJWoods on Sunday 24th May 18:29
paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.
Sorry to be the party pooper but what happens if suddenly two above average mile C63’s are added for sale at say £4000 less than your current average price? Would this not bring the average down? paddy1970 said:
Ok, I have looked at the selling price of the following cars (0-60<=5s, mileage<100k, more than 10 new listings or modified listings in the last week on autotrader) and it seems that there has been a drop of -1.6% in selling price from last week.
Why has my car depreciated the most? FFS. Wooda80 said:
Right, I'm going to put my 2014 car up for sale straight away.
Once prices have dropped 40% I'll be able to get a 2017 model for the money I draw from the sale..
I did that end of 2008, sold my 9 year old car and bought the same model 3 year old car for the same money 3 months later.Once prices have dropped 40% I'll be able to get a 2017 model for the money I draw from the sale..
Auto810graphy said:
Sorry to be the party pooper but what happens if suddenly two above average mile C63’s are added for sale at say £4000 less than your current average price? Would this not bring the average down?
Please bear in mind that I have excluded high mileage car (over 100k miles).However if you have 2 cars with above average mileage £4k less than the rest, it will bring the average down by less than £800 (there is a minimum of 10 samples). It won't explain the £3k difference.
Next week, I will show the average mileage so the comparison can be contrasted with the average price. Or I can try to compare like for like. I will have a think!
Edited by paddy1970 on Sunday 24th May 18:51
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