Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[jammy-git]

Deep Thought said:

jammy-git said:

It's pent up demand, I think a lot of businesses will see an initial flurry of sales from customers who haven't been able to leave the house for a couple of months

After a few weeks I think we'll then see another drop off.

Drop off, yes - falling off a cliff and / or in to an abyss, no.

I don't think anyone can say definitively either way. No one knows what's going to happen in a month or two. I think there's a chance we have another full lockdown. Then the drop off is 100%. The virus could mutate, then we'll see the markets really go crazy. Or we could get a vaccine and everyone breathes a huge sigh of relief!

I do think only expecting a 20% drop off to be quite optimistic though, considering they're predicting unemployment rates of 10-15%.

[Vroomer]

jammy-git said:

It's pent up demand, I think a lot of businesses will see an initial flurry of sales from customers who haven't been able to leave the house for a couple of months

After a few weeks I think we'll then see another drop off.

Yes, dead cat bounce.

[Deep Thought]

Vroomer said:

Yes, dead cat bounce.

Dead cat bounce suggests after the bounce it will continue on its decline from what is currently a very low point anyway.

Is that what you're saying?

Or where do you expect it to land percentage wise relative to pre-COVID volumes?

[Deep Thought]

From the trade auction site i follow, i found another nine cars where people had hit "Buy it Now" almost instantly so i missed them from my auction watch.

No real grouping of type of car. CAP Clean was in the realm of £7,500 to £12,500 across the cars, the average Buy It Now price was 95% of CAP Clean.

All looked like stuff you'd expect to see on a typical used car forecourt - Audi, Honda, Merc, Nissan, VW. 7 were diesel, two petrol.

The only link between them was they all looked like clean, retail quality cars that were ready to go. One had its BIN set to slightly over CAP Clean - it was a Merc E class estate, diesel.

[Vroomer]

Deep Thought said:

Vroomer said:

Yes, dead cat bounce.

Dead cat bounce suggests after the bounce it will continue on its decline from what is currently a very low point anyway.

Is that what you're saying?

Or where do you expect it to land percentage wise relative to pre-COVID volumes?

Pent up demand will result in a short-term flurry of interest. When folk wake up to the worldwide recession that is about to hit, things will be different, sadly.

[jammy-git]

Is there anyone that isn't aware of the recession that's about to hit? The only unknown is how deep and how long it'll be.

[Salmonofdoubt]

I'm not sure how indicative prices are, but I've just had a quick scan of recently listed cars on autotrader within 50 miles of me. Along with the usual dealer stock being listed I noticed more 'interesting' cars than usual have appeared since the weekend, all from private sellers.

I'd like to think it's just people offloading their toys to upgrade or because they want to do something else.

[Hungrymc]

A dead cat bounce is normally triggered by perceived better value due to reduced prices (hence the cat being dead)... But generally, we have seen no price drop and so I don't think its the right description?

Anyway, I wasn't expecting any initial surge and so am really pleased to hear that it seems there is some demand returning. Its great news, hope to hear lots more of it.

[Deep Thought]

jammy-git said:

Is there anyone that isn't aware of the recession that's about to hit? The only unknown is how deep and how long it'll be.

Agreed. Definite recession. The unknown is how deep and how long.

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 27th May 11:31

[Deep Thought]

jammy-git said:

I don't think anyone can say definitively either way. No one knows what's going to happen in a month or two. I think there's a chance we have another full lockdown. Then the drop off is 100%. The virus could mutate, then we'll see the markets really go crazy. Or we could get a vaccine and everyone breathes a huge sigh of relief!

I do think only expecting a 20% drop off to be quite optimistic though, considering they're predicting unemployment rates of 10-15%.

I think the 20% drop off will be in to next year before things settled. I think we'll see an initial surge of activity, then a fall back, then it come up to around 80%. That doesnt mean that we'll see like for like transactions. I think a lot of people will trade down or buy a more economical car next time, but we will still see a very significant used car market in terms of transactions.

[Deep Thought]

Hungrymc said:

A dead cat bounce is normally triggered by perceived better value due to reduced prices (hence the cat being dead)... But generally, we have seen no price drop and so I don't think its the right description?

Anyway, I wasn't expecting any initial surge and so am really pleased to hear that it seems there is some demand returning. Its great news, hope to hear lots more of it.

No its not the right description but the term suits Throttlebody's narrative.

[Deep Thought]

Salmonofdoubt said:

I'm not sure how indicative prices are, but I've just had a quick scan of recently listed cars on autotrader within 50 miles of me. Along with the usual dealer stock being listed I noticed more 'interesting' cars than usual have appeared since the weekend, all from private sellers.

I'd like to think it's just people offloading their toys to upgrade or because they want to do something else.

Yes, lots of interesting and "classic on the cusp" and quite odd ball stuff coming up, particularly on facebook marketplace. Seems to be a fair amount of stuff from perhaps people trimming back small collections or deciding that that weekend project cant be justified.

[nickfrog]

jammy-git said:

I don't think anyone can say definitively either way. No one knows what's going to happen in a month or two. I think there's a chance we have another full lockdown.

Exaxtly. Making definite and sweeping statements about the future of car values and the future of automotive jobs either near term or short term is idiotic and delusional.

[Throttlebody]

nickfrog said:

Exaxtly. Making definite and sweeping statements about the future of car values and the future of automotive jobs either near term or short term is idiotic and delusional.

Sure, lets just have another summary of how your personal car finance works for you.

Fascinating market views and predictions. Stay safe

[Vroomer]

jammy-git said:

Is there anyone that isn't aware of the recession that's about to hit?

As has been discussed at length, there are thousands of people on furlough who are actually redundant, but just don't know it yet. Very sad.

[Throttlebody]

Deep Thought said:

Hungrymc said:

A dead cat bounce is normally triggered by perceived better value due to reduced prices (hence the cat being dead)... But generally, we have seen no price drop and so I don't think its the right description?

Anyway, I wasn't expecting any initial surge and so am really pleased to hear that it seems there is some demand returning. Its great news, hope to hear lots more of it.

No its not the right description but the term suits Throttlebody's narrative.

It’s a short-lived phase of upward movement after a prolonged downward trend.

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Deep Thought said:

Hungrymc said:

A dead cat bounce is normally triggered by perceived better value due to reduced prices (hence the cat being dead)... But generally, we have seen no price drop and so I don't think its the right description?

Anyway, I wasn't expecting any initial surge and so am really pleased to hear that it seems there is some demand returning. Its great news, hope to hear lots more of it.

No its not the right description but the term suits Throttlebody's narrative.

It’s a short-lived phase of upward movement after a prolonged downward trend.

... with a continued downward trend following.

Hard for a continued downward trend after this "bounce" given its at practicually zero now.

As i said - your interpretation of the phrase is just to suit your narrative.

[Anonymous-poster]

Deep Thought said:

Throttlebody said:

Deep Thought said:

Hungrymc said:

A dead cat bounce is normally triggered by perceived better value due to reduced prices (hence the cat being dead)... But generally, we have seen no price drop and so I don't think its the right description?

Anyway, I wasn't expecting any initial surge and so am really pleased to hear that it seems there is some demand returning. Its great news, hope to hear lots more of it.

No its not the right description but the term suits Throttlebody's narrative.

It’s a short-lived phase of upward movement after a prolonged downward trend.

... with a continued downward trend following.

Hard for a continued downward trend after this "bounce" given its at practicually zero now.

The only way is up!

Never try and catch a falling knife springs to mind!

[Deep Thought]

Anonymous-poster said:

Never try and catch a falling knife springs to mind!

lol.

Well fortunately i'm a spectator in this as i'm not in the trade, nor do i have a need to buy or sell a car any time soon.

[dave_s13]

I drove from Leeds to hudds, to Rochdale and back yesterday and noticed loads of single cars on low loaders...which I only noticed as my new (used) car is getting delivered this evening via a Shipley.com transport guy.

This might indicate cars have still been selling and keeping things bobbing along....the car transporter guys must be pretty busy, no bad thing.