Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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Discussion

jammy-git

25,096 posts

167 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Butter Face said:
jammy-git said:
This might be a bit cheeky, but could I ask you to look up the value for this car please: https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1213258
Way over book but not unusual for that type of car IMO

Thanks! I knew it would be out a bit but it's good to know how far out!

Justin Case

1,482 posts

89 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Autotrader update today:

490k trade sales, a DECREASE of 20k on typical lockdown days
35k private sale, an INCREASE of 5k on typical lockdown days

Struggling to interpret that...
Perhaps : key workers need to replace cars, go to dealers who are taking suitable precautions to avoid infection. Key workers need to replace cars., avoid private sellers as no guarantee they are taking suitable precautions. What would you do?

Deep Thought

26,717 posts

152 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Autotrader update today:

490k trade sales, a DECREASE of 20k on typical lockdown days
35k private sale, an INCREASE of 5k on typical lockdown days

Struggling to interpret that...
Element of dealer stock moving but hard to currently replace.

Private seller confidence in market rising and lockdown restrictions easing so advertising their cars that they previously have been unable to.

Kinky

37,279 posts

224 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Vroomer said:
Autotrader update today:

490k trade sales, a DECREASE of 20k on typical lockdown days
35k private sale, an INCREASE of 5k on typical lockdown days

Struggling to interpret that...
On the private sales element, it could be that folks are selling privately, hoping to get a higher price than the WBAC/trade-in values they've been quoted?

Deep Thought

26,717 posts

152 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Kinky said:
Vroomer said:
Autotrader update today:

490k trade sales, a DECREASE of 20k on typical lockdown days
35k private sale, an INCREASE of 5k on typical lockdown days

Struggling to interpret that...
On the private sales element, it could be that folks are selling privately, hoping to get a higher price than the WBAC/trade-in values they've been quoted?
Agreed.

It shows very little as a standalone statistic. Not really a surprise if the amount of private sales of cars was to trend upwards for the reasons you've suggested.

On the other side, its hard to draw any concrete conclusion about the trade sales side of things until forecourts are allowed to reopen and people have more freedom of movement (likely to be announced this week i think with a view to restarting most likely 8th June, if not 15th June.

Im doing work with a company that does consumer research and insights on a national scale and they're saying that consumer spending habits are changing weekly and evolving with every change in the lockdown restrictions. Impossible to make any real predictions based on one snapshot of one view of the data in one particular week of lockdown.

Edited by Deep Thought on Monday 25th May 14:42

Wooda80

1,717 posts

30 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
jammy-git said:
Thanks! I knew it would be out a bit but it's good to know how far out!
CAP values on Porsches don't tend to reflect market values, either trade or retail.

I've no axe to grind and I'm not trying to talk them up or defend them, simply to point out that if you find your perfect used Cayman, for example, apparently priced fairly in comparison with others on the market then you will only p*ss on your own bonfire if you look up the CAP value.

Why this should be when CAP supposedly follows market prices I have no idea, but Porsches are not the only anomaly. Not many years ago CAP clean on most Mercedes was hopelessly overstated to the extent that it was closer to the dealer retail price, but I looked at an S500 coupe the other week which booked, like the Porsche, far less than the retail prices wuld suggest. We bid and bought based on what we could sell it for rather than what the guide said.

tonker

56,746 posts

203 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
jammy-git said:
Thanks! I knew it would be out a bit but it's good to know how far out!
It has a Hartech rebuild. That’s why it’s that price. The usual low price has to cover a rebuild for anyone crazy enough to take one in without a bore score test / IMS check..

fridaypassion

4,943 posts

183 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
niggtv said:
Odd interpretation; how do you know the private sellers are desperate for the cash?!

There have been very few private sales due to the restrictions on movement, but as this starts to be relaxed it makes sense that private sales increase again - even if fairly low levels still.

Re traders, not sure how long the AT freebie offer lasts, but this may be part of it. Sales still seem to be completing, so perhaps traders are running down their stock a bit.
Traders have just all had a free 50 grand cash injection so they will all be around a while yet. Most places are still closed so I would guess the increase is due to limited avenues for getting rid. Webuyanycar and the auction system is paralysed so no easy option with the garages shut.

Regarding dealers and autotrader most have reduced their numbers of stock listed on AT as soon as CV hit. AT were a bit slow to come up with support (pistonheads were straight in!) so numbers will be down. Also those dealers remote selling are having more of an issue with restocking. That's certainly the case for me I've sold 4x what I've been able to restock.

Sa Calobra

29,615 posts

166 months

Monday 25th May
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dave_s13 said:
Other car still has a 3.5litre V6 petrol though.

Still very interested in cars, just my needs have changed to fit my life/budget at the moment.
Everytime you plug it in sing to yourself danger! Danger! Hivoltage! The way we touch!..

Deep Thought

26,717 posts

152 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Ok, well i've watched 23 auctions end on a trade site i'm still registered with. Heres my observations

Of the 23 cars, only 3 met reserve. 16 looked like they were close to reserve (amber status finish), 4 were some distance away (red status finish)

There were 8 cars with a CAP Clean of under £10K. On average they made £602 behind CAP Clean
There were 12 cars with a CAP Clean above £10K but under £20K. On average they made £734 behind CAP Clean
There were 3 cars with a CAP Clean above £20K but under £35K. On average they made £2436 behind CAP Clean (of interest, ALL were large 4x4s)

The average number of bids on diesel cars was 14, whereas the average number of bids on cooking petrol cars was 7. Of interest, the massive exception (and removed from the petrol car bid numbers to not skew the average) was on a Golf R with 36 bids.

4x4s under £20K fared no better and no worse than other cars at around £650 behind CAP Clean on average.

TL;DR - Cars under £20K were coming it at roughly £700 behind CAP clean. Strong bidding on diesels of all kinds. Bidding on large, expensive 4x4s very cautious.


Anonymous-poster

11,061 posts

161 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Is 20 out of 23 not meeting reserve normal?

Deep Thought

26,717 posts

152 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Anonymous-poster said:
Is 20 out of 23 not meeting reserve normal?
No. Probably only around 25% normally dont meet reserve - but thats because cars tend to meet close to CAP clean. An amber colour means close to reserve, a red status means a significant amount away from reserve.

Its an automated "reserve not met" rather than someone deciding as the auction ends.

Sometimes they'll just accept the highest bid, sometimes they'll contact the highest bidder by phone to negotiate and try to meet the buyer on price. If they cant the car will be relisted.

Cars that are too far from reserve, they'll just relist automatically.

Under normal circumstances any that need to be relisted will be done within the hour. It is not in their interest to not sell cars, so i'd expect they'll reach an accommodation on most.

At the moment they're running maybe one auction a week, so i'll need to see how many are relisted for the next auction.



Edited by Deep Thought on Monday 25th May 16:55

Anonymous-poster

11,061 posts

161 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
To be fair most traders at the moment will not be wanting to add to their stock.

Deep Thought

26,717 posts

152 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Anonymous-poster said:
To be fair most traders at the moment will not be wanting to add to their stock.
Yeah i think thats fair comment. I'm not surprised by the above figures.


TeaVR

1,015 posts

182 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
fridaypassion said:
Traders have just all had a free 50 grand cash injection so they will all be around a while yet.
Can you expand on that please?

Anonymous-poster

11,061 posts

161 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
TeaVR said:
fridaypassion said:
Traders have just all had a free 50 grand cash injection so they will all be around a while yet.
Can you expand on that please?
If they applied for the bounce back loan the first 12 months is interest free and for 5 years after it will be @2.5%.

So NO it’s not FREE!

ging84

6,364 posts

101 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
AndrewNR said:
Nearly 15 years old, looks quite dated (in and out) and by modern standards, considering it has a 6.0L engine it isn't particularly fast; seems reasonable to me. phone
Yeah but it's a Bentley.
Someone could buy a captain's hat and make a few hundred quid every Saturday driving from their council estate to the registry office.

jamoor

12,044 posts

170 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
Anonymous-poster said:
TeaVR said:
fridaypassion said:
Traders have just all had a free 50 grand cash injection so they will all be around a while yet.
Can you expand on that please?
If they applied for the bounce back loan the first 12 months is interest free and for 5 years after it will be @2.5%.

So NO it’s not FREE!
12 months interest free is about as free as cash gets.

Dedders

68 posts

51 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
ging84 said:
Came across this beast browsing autotrader

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202...

a 2006 bently continental for £15k

I'm not really too clued in on Bentley values so could be well wrong, but my initial reaction was must be a fix upper, but advert does not suggest it is.
seems way to cheap, 3 months ago I would have assumed scam but is this where thing are now?
I’ve been watching that for a while and keep being tempted as it’s a lot of car for the money and only 5 miles away from me. Must resist!

Deep Thought

26,717 posts

152 months

Monday 25th May
quotequote all
jamoor said:
Anonymous-poster said:
TeaVR said:
fridaypassion said:
Traders have just all had a free 50 grand cash injection so they will all be around a while yet.
Can you expand on that please?
If they applied for the bounce back loan the first 12 months is interest free and for 5 years after it will be @2.5%.

So NO it’s not FREE!
12 months interest free is about as free as cash gets.
No as free as it gets would be giving someone £50K for free without an expectation they pay you it back.

Theres a big difference between a free 50 grand cash injection and an interest free 50 grand cash injection which you are expected to repay