Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[ChocolateFrog]

greenarrow said:

So, is coronavirus hitting used car prices? I'm one of those sad individuals who spends hours and hours looking at Autotrader and Facebay at various potential purchases. I tend to look at older stuff and I think if anything prices of those cars have risen of late. Example, early Honda Civic Type R FN2. Before Christmas I saw several going for £3000-£3500 in my area. Ditto Mk5 Golf GTI. Now, they seem to be creeping up towards the £4K level. Another car I look out for is the Fiesta ST Mk7. Prices don't seem to have dropped below £7K for early examples this year.....

No reason to yet, barely anyone has actually lost their job yet.

No one has been able to buy a car reasonably for atleast 2 months.

Most people, even if they're on 80% wages are actually better off because no eating out, mortgage freezes etc.

There's very few distressed sales right now.


It's a game of musical chairs, at the moment everyone has a seat but when the music stops it isn't one seat that's removed it's 25%.

I haven't actually seen anything go up in value but equally nothing's got cheaper either including my car, why would you unless you were desperate for the cash.

Insert own percentage, mine is hopefully an exaggeration.

Edited by ChocolateFrog on Friday 5th June 15:20

[impreza280]

greenarrow said:

So, is coronavirus hitting used car prices? I'm one of those sad individuals who spends hours and hours looking at Autotrader and Facebay at various potential purchases. I tend to look at older stuff and I think if anything prices of those cars have risen of late. Example, early Honda Civic Type R FN2. Before Christmas I saw several going for £3000-£3500 in my area. Ditto Mk5 Golf GTI. Now, they seem to be creeping up towards the £4K level. Another car I look out for is the Fiesta ST Mk7. Prices don't seem to have dropped below £7K for early examples this year.....

I think what you're seeing is the usual seasonality but magnified this June - demand is always strong in the Spring, so this year's March/April/May/June is being condensed into June. Every November they typically hit their lowest - I was once told the lowest prices of the year at auction are in the 3rd week of Nov, before used car dealers start to stock up for the New Year. This doesn't apply equally to all types of car. There's also the difference between advertised price and sale price - I wouldn't like to comment on that, apart from the likelihood of the gap widening later in the year.

[Scootersp]

greenarrow said:

So, is coronavirus hitting used car prices? I'm one of those sad individuals who spends hours and hours looking at Autotrader and Facebay at various potential purchases. I tend to look at older stuff and I think if anything prices of those cars have risen of late.

I tend to look at the same era, old stuff is almost standalone/independant, market guides WBAC quotes etc don't work down there, low volume of market supply and demand.I still think it could drop if the necessity to sell on mass rises and some private sellers do what the need to do to get the phone to ring!

I own a BMW 645, a tough sell pre covid, old uneconomical, reliability/bork fears etc. Some are for sale for ages, there just aren't many buyers at all looking for one at anyone time?

If demand really does fall it's inevitable some sellers will have to drop the prices to get to the front of the queue, but right now every car they can get out close to pre covid price and give a low p/x the better as it makes future off loading more palatable......I bet dealers are closely monitoring demand and may well shift when the pent up demand wanes a bit?

[av185]

impreza280 said:

Every November they typically hit their lowest - I was once told the lowest prices of the year at auction are in the 3rd week of Nov, before used car dealers start to stock up for the New Year.

For the past few years November has shown very strong prices as auctions now are traditionally less affected than former years by the winter lull in demand as it is less seasonal now.

Weather dependent, December is generally quieter than November and very few dealers are looking to buy cars which will inevitably sit around over the festive period especially if there is snow.

[Scootersp]

limpsfield said:

I would have thought that an economic Titan such as yourself would have been aware that the definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth, so we are not already in it.

Definitions don't explain everything do they? I mean if the 2nd quarter is better than the first and then gradually improves quarter by quarter, by definition would we ever be in a recession!?

It's a general rule of thumb used in normal economic times, by definition a...

1% GDP drop one qtr and a further 1% drop the next = Recession

But a

10% GDP drop one qtr 8.9% gain the next = no recession

Yet the above GDP's are the same after the 6 months.

[Throttlebody]

Anonymous-poster said:

The manufacturer smoke and mirrors has started already!
Audi offering first 4 months payment free and up to £18k off and Fiat/Alfa offering 12 months free redundancy insurance on new cars!

Ford are doing 0% APR, deferred monthly payments options and cashback/deposit contribution options on some PCPs. Wonder what mugs think Ford are doing them a favour. The’ve just massaged the numbers. They call it ‘Peace of Mind’

[Deep Thought]

Anonymous-poster said:

Aftershox said:

Anonymous-poster said:

The manufacturer smoke and mirrors has started already!
Audi offering first 4 months payment free and up to £18k off and Fiat/Alfa offering 12 months free redundancy insurance on new cars!

Incredible - Used car sales 1-3 years old will tank.

What are audi doing regarding the 18k? What model?

Probably the A8 down to £1k for A1 at a guess?

Summary as a starting point here -

https://www.drivethedeal.com/SpecialOffers.aspx

around £26k off some A8s
around £15k off some A6s
around £8k off some A4s

Deals on Q3, Q5, Q7, Q8 also.

[Deep Thought]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Any bidding i am seeing on the trade site i have access to, and also from what others are saying about trade auctions they are watching and partaking in suggests that bidding is relatively closely aligned to CAP Clean prices, therefore car dealers should NOT be lowballing trade ins.

If someone thinks they're getting a low ball offer, i'd ask where that offer sits relative to CAP Clean - i'd physically ask to see it - and ask them why its so far way (if it is).

As always, WBAC could be a baseline figure or see if any sellers of similar cars could be interested in making a trade bid. Selling privately may also be an option

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Anonymous-poster said:

The manufacturer smoke and mirrors has started already!
Audi offering first 4 months payment free and up to £18k off and Fiat/Alfa offering 12 months free redundancy insurance on new cars!

Ford are doing 0% APR, deferred monthly payments options and cashback/deposit contribution options on some PCPs. Wonder what mugs think Ford are doing them a favour.The’ve just massaged the numbers. They call it ‘Peace of Mind’

Are you saying those deals are no better than pre-COVID?

[Inky81]

Deep Thought said:

Summary as a starting point here -

https://www.drivethedeal.com/SpecialOffers.aspx

around £26k off some A8s
around £15k off some A6s
around £8k off some A4s

Deals on Q3, Q5, Q7, Q8 also.

That appears to be quite strong discounting, but does anyone have any data on how it compares to pre C-19 pricing?

VAG supply lots of daily rental/contract hire fleets, where discounts are necessary to secure volume. It's reasonable to assume demand from these buyers has reduced, and as a result consumers are seeing these discounts transferred to their market, to meet production targets. This could have knock on effects to other manufacturers and the 2nd hand values.

[Deep Thought]

Inky81 said:

That appears to be quite strong discounting, but does anyone have any data on how it compares to pre C-19 pricing?

VAG supply lots of daily rental/contract hire fleets, where discounts are necessary to secure volume. It's reasonable to assume demand from these buyers has reduced, and as a result consumers are seeing these discounts transferred to their market, to meet production targets. This could have knock on effects to other manufacturers and the 2nd hand values.

Agreed. Without pre-COVID prices its hard to say if thats impressive, or if they've "just massaged the numbers" and are "using smoke and mirrors"

And to caveat those prices - drivethedeal do those specific "offers" on specific (stock) cars. But it might be indicative of deals achievable out there. Also Broadspeed.com might be a good source.

I would say though, the Ford deals seem stronger - they certainly didnt offer 3 months deferred, 3 months they pay for and i dont think 0% was as available across the range as it was now.

Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 5th June 17:06

Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 5th June 17:10

[Throttlebody]

Scootersp said:

limpsfield said:

I would have thought that an economic Titan such as yourself would have been aware that the definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth, so we are not already in it.

Definitions don't explain everything do they? I mean if the 2nd quarter is better than the first and then gradually improves quarter by quarter, by definition would we ever be in a recession!?

It's a general rule of thumb used in normal economic times, by definition a...

1% GDP drop one qtr and a further 1% drop the next = Recession

But a

10% GDP drop one qtr 8.9% gain the next = no recession

Yet the above GDP's are the same after the 6 months.

An true economic indicator of the level of decline and where things are heading.

[ToastMan76]

Throttlebody said:

An true economic indicator of the level of decline and where things are heading.

Considering there were mass furloughing, a rise in unemployment, and the main economic driver - services was completely shut down, -2% is fantastic.

[anonymous-user]

ToastMan76 said:

Considering there were mass furloughing, a rise in unemployment, and the main economic driver - services was completely shut down, -2% is fantastic.

Most furloughing of staff didnt start until the 23rd March, when Borris spoke and shut us down. Those figures show the slowdown as people start to take onboard a ststorm might be on the way. The April/May update will look much worse.

[Earthdweller]

I was in a main dealer today having a service done

They’ve only just reopened

Spoke to one of the sales guys and asked how it was going he said that used had picked up really well, surprisingly so.

He said that new hadn’t really got going again

[Hungrymc]

jsf said:

Most furloughing of staff didnt start until the 23rd March, when Borris spoke and shut us down. Those figures show the slowdown as people start to take onboard a ststorm might be on the way. The April/May update will look much worse.

Q2 will show the real decline. Even if (when) unemployment bites in Q3 & Q4, output will be far higher than Q2 through the worst of lock down.

[Auto810graphy]

Throttlebody said:

An true economic indicator of the level of decline and where things are heading.

Don’t get upset TB but some (slightly) positive news in the US

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993

[anonymous-user]

Auto810graphy said:

Don’t get upset TB but some (slightly) positive news in the US

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52938993

It's looking like post the shock we will be at 2008 levels of unemployment if that plays out further and translates to UK, what was most shocking in the stats was although there was a reversal of trend in most sectors, the black unemployed continued to go up. These being in the majority lower income sector.

[Greggymagic]

Deep Thought said:

Summary as a starting point here -

https://www.drivethedeal.com/SpecialOffers.aspx

around £26k off some A8s
around £15k off some A6s
around £8k off some A4s

Deals on Q3, Q5, Q7, Q8 also.

What is amazing in that list is that there is an Audi Q5 with a list price of nearly 70k!!!

70k!!! For an Audi Q5!! Even if that's the top model, that does seem a crazy list price.

[jimPH]

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/investigat...

The post Corona bounce is on. My stocks are all flying, I'll be paying cash with the profit.