Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
jsf said:
NASDAQ broke its record this week, other major composites are recovering at rapid rates.
My own pension funds are the highest they have been, but then i manage that split of funds myself rather than relying on what most people do of never switching funds, most still have their money in the split as it was setup when the policy was started, which gives pretty crappy returns usually.
Sorry, but this is postering.My own pension funds are the highest they have been, but then i manage that split of funds myself rather than relying on what most people do of never switching funds, most still have their money in the split as it was setup when the policy was started, which gives pretty crappy returns usually.
Equities are down pretty much across the board from February 2020 levels. Even managing own funds, your pension investments will be down unless:
1. You timed the market perfectly, sold your holding just before Covid and bought back in when the market dropped;
2. You're invested exclusive in Tech funds - SMT; Amazon/Tesla stock - which typically would be a very unwise strategy;
3. You're misinterpreting the data your pension provider is giving.
Auto810graphy said:
fridaypassion said:
Arriving on a bike with socks/sandals/notebook and a tape measure? Might as well not even bother.
We have a mid 30s chap that looks at our cars every now and again who matches this description.Over the past few years he had been to look several cars as he’s local but did not buy. Last time was a really cheap Dacia Sandero, he checked his bike fitted, noted tyre depths and lots of other stuff, said he was buying but last we heard he was asking his mum to borrow some money (serious).
He was on the phone Monday wanting to look at a 1 Series. Was politely told him we would need a holding deposit to view and he told us he would take his custom elsewhere.
Fiisch said:
Sorry, but this is postering.
Equities are down pretty much across the board from February 2020 levels. Even managing own funds, your pension investments will be down unless:
1. You timed the market perfectly, sold your holding just before Covid and bought back in when the market dropped;
2. You're invested exclusive in Tech funds - SMT; Amazon/Tesla stock - which typically would be a very unwise strategy;
3. You're misinterpreting the data your pension provider is giving.
Like most people who are sensible. i have a mixed portfolio made up of UK and ROW stocks across various sectors.Equities are down pretty much across the board from February 2020 levels. Even managing own funds, your pension investments will be down unless:
1. You timed the market perfectly, sold your holding just before Covid and bought back in when the market dropped;
2. You're invested exclusive in Tech funds - SMT; Amazon/Tesla stock - which typically would be a very unwise strategy;
3. You're misinterpreting the data your pension provider is giving.
My pension fund is 12% up on this time last year, It's value is the same as the highest point in 2020, some parts are up, some parts are down, that's why you diversify.
If you were investing in UK only stocks, you'd be down at the moment, that would be a daft way to invest in a pension as UK growth is low, always has been, always will be. Europe in general is crap for returns.
It's pretty clear there is a disconnect between the equity markets and the real economy, the central banks have made it quite clear they are prepared to backstop the markets, you are seeing the results of that.
NASDAQ
jsf said:
Like most people who are sensible. i have a mixed portfolio made up of UK and ROW stocks across various sectors.
My pension fund is 12% up on this time last year, It's value is the same as the highest point in 2020, some parts are up, some parts are down, that's why you diversify.
If you were investing in UK only stocks, you'd be down at the moment, that would be a daft way to invest in a pension as UK growth is low, always has been, always will be. Europe in general is crap for returns.
It's pretty clear there is a disconnect between the equity markets and the real economy, the central banks have made it quite clear they are prepared to backstop the markets, you are seeing the results of that.
NASDAQ
Absolutely agree, but my own global (albeit somewhat passive) diversified strategy is still down on last year's highs.My pension fund is 12% up on this time last year, It's value is the same as the highest point in 2020, some parts are up, some parts are down, that's why you diversify.
If you were investing in UK only stocks, you'd be down at the moment, that would be a daft way to invest in a pension as UK growth is low, always has been, always will be. Europe in general is crap for returns.
It's pretty clear there is a disconnect between the equity markets and the real economy, the central banks have made it quite clear they are prepared to backstop the markets, you are seeing the results of that.
NASDAQ
Holding global passive funds - in particular Vanguard Lifestrategy 100; Lindsell Train; Fundsmith and Scottish Mortgage Trust across ISA/SIPP accounts. The only one that is up on last year is Scottish Mortgage Trust, and then only by virtue of Amazon/Tesla's recent meteoric rises, even after dumping in more cash after the fall.
I digress, but if you're up on last year, you've been very lucky or made some very well-timed investments.
I can see a number of businesses going under as the year progresses. Smaller businesses - pubs, shops, restaurants - will struggle to weather 3+ months without income. All of this will see the vast majority with a vastly reduced disposable income, which will inevitably hit car prices.
Facebook is already awash with ads - "lost job due to Covid so forced to sell". Unfortunately, many of these poor souls have yet to realise that their expectation on sale price is +20% on what is realistic at the moment.
Auto810graphy said:
fridaypassion said:
Arriving on a bike with socks/sandals/notebook and a tape measure? Might as well not even bother.
We have a mid 30s chap that looks at our cars every now and again who matches this description.Over the past few years he had been to look several cars as he’s local but did not buy. Last time was a really cheap Dacia Sandero, he checked his bike fitted, noted tyre depths and lots of other stuff, said he was buying but last we heard he was asking his mum to borrow some money (serious).
He was on the phone Monday wanting to look at a 1 Series. Was politely told him we would need a holding deposit to view and he told us he would take his custom elsewhere.
Local old guy who's given us the runaround for years, he's always ages on the phone too, always looking for a car for his daughter who's not local, he's enquired about almost everything that we sell which is auto and small, was definately buying a new Twingo auto a couple of years ago, he rang in on a used 2 Series that we have, same spiel on the phone about his daughter.
Wants to drive it, not sure if it is right for his daughter though, was told no test drive until his daughter can also see it, she's 100 miles away so will be difficult apparently, oh well, no test drive then.
Inky81 said:
Welshbeef said:
What is the thoughts here about Xmas? Do we believe it will be possibly by then to have a proper big family Xmas or Social distancing will exist until vaccine exists meaning it really isn’t possible?
Again. Wrong thread. This is about used car values.Algarve said:
Inky81 said:
Welshbeef said:
What is the thoughts here about Xmas? Do we believe it will be possibly by then to have a proper big family Xmas or Social distancing will exist until vaccine exists meaning it really isn’t possible?
Again. Wrong thread. This is about used car values.Fiisch said:
I digress, but if you're up on last year, you've been very lucky or made some very well-timed investments.
No doubt a bit of both. I had a few months off work where i could barely move a few years ago and spent a fair bit of time watching the financial press and doing some research. It proved to me what i suspected, most of the talking heads on TV are chancers who dont know their arse from their elbow. That led me to thinking a bit more deaply than previously on how to use my limited resources.Anyway, sorry about the OT content.
As some asked earlier in the thread on predictions, i'm going to put the new cars market at about 60% of what we saw for June last year.
Used is far harder to call, i still think it's in for a kicking, but this wont play out for a while yet as the furlough scheme is hiding the real economy effects of the outcome of CV19.
HTP99 said:
Auto810graphy said:
fridaypassion said:
Arriving on a bike with socks/sandals/notebook and a tape measure? Might as well not even bother.
We have a mid 30s chap that looks at our cars every now and again who matches this description.Over the past few years he had been to look several cars as he’s local but did not buy. Last time was a really cheap Dacia Sandero, he checked his bike fitted, noted tyre depths and lots of other stuff, said he was buying but last we heard he was asking his mum to borrow some money (serious).
He was on the phone Monday wanting to look at a 1 Series. Was politely told him we would need a holding deposit to view and he told us he would take his custom elsewhere.
Local old guy who's given us the runaround for years, he's always ages on the phone too, always looking for a car for his daughter who's not local, he's enquired about almost everything that we sell which is auto and small, was definately buying a new Twingo auto a couple of years ago, he rang in on a used 2 Series that we have, same spiel on the phone about his daughter.
Wants to drive it, not sure if it is right for his daughter though, was told no test drive until his daughter can also see it, she's 100 miles away so will be difficult apparently, oh well, no test drive then.
By insisting on a level of commitment before even test driving a car, you are putting pressure on the buyer. In this day and age of virtual shopping, customers have a lot of choices. Some will succumb to this pressure others will find alternative ways of buying.
For your sake I hope your method is the best.
maz8062 said:
HTP99 said:
Auto810graphy said:
fridaypassion said:
Arriving on a bike with socks/sandals/notebook and a tape measure? Might as well not even bother.
We have a mid 30s chap that looks at our cars every now and again who matches this description.Over the past few years he had been to look several cars as he’s local but did not buy. Last time was a really cheap Dacia Sandero, he checked his bike fitted, noted tyre depths and lots of other stuff, said he was buying but last we heard he was asking his mum to borrow some money (serious).
He was on the phone Monday wanting to look at a 1 Series. Was politely told him we would need a holding deposit to view and he told us he would take his custom elsewhere.
Local old guy who's given us the runaround for years, he's always ages on the phone too, always looking for a car for his daughter who's not local, he's enquired about almost everything that we sell which is auto and small, was definately buying a new Twingo auto a couple of years ago, he rang in on a used 2 Series that we have, same spiel on the phone about his daughter.
Wants to drive it, not sure if it is right for his daughter though, was told no test drive until his daughter can also see it, she's 100 miles away so will be difficult apparently, oh well, no test drive then.
By insisting on a level of commitment before even test driving a car, you are putting pressure on the buyer. In this day and age of virtual shopping, customers have a lot of choices. Some will succumb to this pressure others will find alternative ways of buying.
For your sake I hope your method is the best.
Our new guidance is also to make sure of affordability and suitability due to safety and cleanliness concerns, before any test drive, sure my guy can test drive the car but only after the person that the car is actually for, agrees that it will be suitable and given that prior to him enquiring on the BMW he wanted a small city car for his daughter, one would be wary about why all of a sudden a lower, larger, more powerful car would suddenly be the car for her.
Same as with the other example, he'd been about for years wasting time, couldn't afford a Sandero and now is interested in a BMW, sorry but that screams time waster and we currently don't have time for time wasters.
Edited by HTP99 on Sunday 7th June 17:31
maz8062 said:
It's interesting that you both find this funny. As is the way these days, people use extreme examples of a practice to introduce rules that impact everyone. If you make the buying process difficult for everyone i.e pay a deposit before you can test drive a car, in the end, your footfall will dry up to be replaced by those virtual showrooms that the likes of SEAT use.
By insisting on a level of commitment before even test driving a car, you are putting pressure on the buyer. In this day and age of virtual shopping, customers have a lot of choices. Some will succumb to this pressure others will find alternative ways of buying.
For your sake I hope your method is the best.
By insisting on a level of commitment before even test driving a car, you are putting pressure on the buyer. In this day and age of virtual shopping, customers have a lot of choices. Some will succumb to this pressure others will find alternative ways of buying.
For your sake I hope your method is the best.
It’s not a general rule yet but even the time wasters have pent up demand. I doubt the guy I am referring to would buy even if I knocked 50% off and chucked in a night with Pippa Middleton.
We don’t have an actual showroom but do sell off some of our own cars to the public and also buy and finance for client requirements.
Similar to traditional showrooms people test driving for fun has an expense and insurance liability risk to our business.
As a rule we can normally spot a “test pilot” and with unaccompanied test drives the new normal we will have to take the risk of loosing the odd potential sale by misjudgment.
Auto810graphy said:
It’s not a general rule yet but even the time wasters have pent up demand. I doubt the guy I am referring to would buy even if I knocked 50% off and chucked in a night with Pippa Middleton.
We don’t have an actual showroom but do sell off some of our own cars to the public and also buy and finance for client requirements.
Similar to traditional showrooms people test driving for fun has an expense and insurance liability risk to our business.
As a rule we can normally spot a “test pilot” and with unaccompanied test drives the new normal we will have to take the risk of loosing the odd potential sale by misjudgment.
What if he’d paid a holding deposit? Would that be refundable had he not liked the car?
Fiisch said:
I often get dealers not taking me seriously at first, which I think is largely because I’m cursed with looking particularly young. I’m in my mid 30s but still get ID’ed in shops..!
What if he’d paid a holding deposit? Would that be refundable had he not liked the car?
You’ve completely missed the point on this , known time wasters are not worth wasting 30 seconds on met along an hour, the tricky bit is spotting who’s a time waster early on and get rid of them.What if he’d paid a holding deposit? Would that be refundable had he not liked the car?
jsf said:
Fiisch said:
I digress, but if you're up on last year, you've been very lucky or made some very well-timed investments.
No doubt a bit of bothI moved my whole pension into cash pre UK election in September 2019 but (unfortunately) re-invested wholly back into equity funds in November 2019 once things were clearer (geographically spread - but with 40% UK as I felt UK stocks were better value). Value peaked in late February 2020 then dropped 40% during the first 3 weeks of March. Has now recovered so am now down only around 10% from the February peak. Am planning to liquidate half tomorrow and let half run as I have a feeling that the recent share surge might turn quickly and a second big leg down might be round the corner. By liquidating 50% to cash I'll be hedging my bets (although liquidating all holdings might be a better bet but I've always been terrible at timing the markets)
Sorry for continuing the Off Topic here !
OddCat said:
Just out of interest then, what are you planning to do now?
I moved my whole pension into cash pre UK election in September 2019 but (unfortunately) re-invested wholly back into equity funds in November 2019 once things were clearer (geographically spread - but with 40% UK as I felt UK stocks were better value). Value peaked in late February 2020 then dropped 40% during the first 3 weeks of March. Has now recovered so am now down only around 10% from the February peak. Am planning to liquidate half tomorrow and let half run as I have a feeling that the recent share surge might turn quickly and a second big leg down might be round the corner. By liquidating 50% to cash I'll be hedging my bets (although liquidating all holdings might be a better bet but I've always been terrible at timing the markets)
Sorry for continuing the Off Topic here !
Do not seek financial advice on PH! Go see a professional advisor. There's a great example of this on the Porsche section at the moment, complete plonker giving out daft advice as gospel. Dangerous and irresponsible. You need to find someone that actually gets paid to do it, as opposed to people having a nibble and getting lucky every now and then giving investment advice. Especially if its your pension!I moved my whole pension into cash pre UK election in September 2019 but (unfortunately) re-invested wholly back into equity funds in November 2019 once things were clearer (geographically spread - but with 40% UK as I felt UK stocks were better value). Value peaked in late February 2020 then dropped 40% during the first 3 weeks of March. Has now recovered so am now down only around 10% from the February peak. Am planning to liquidate half tomorrow and let half run as I have a feeling that the recent share surge might turn quickly and a second big leg down might be round the corner. By liquidating 50% to cash I'll be hedging my bets (although liquidating all holdings might be a better bet but I've always been terrible at timing the markets)
Sorry for continuing the Off Topic here !
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