Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[93DW]

Throttlebody said:

Don’t worry, I’m not expecting to get a £7k car for £1k. Realism is my bag.

I know that's not what you meant, If you think you'll be picking up cheaper-than-usual sub £1500 cars then you will be disappointed.

[V8RX7]

Joey Deacon said:

Currently there are 9.3 Million people on furlough and 2.6 million people on the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS). Lets just think about those figures for a second, just under 12 million people being paid by the government to stay at home.

I just find it hard to believe that all of these 12 million people are thinking "I know, with no idea of when/if we are going back to work now would be an excellent time to buy a new car". Plus is it even possible to get finance when you are furloughed, or this being Pistonheads does everybody have a six figure slush fund sitting in a bank account somewhere?

12 million people unsure they have a job = increased car sales just doesn't compute to me, at least not long term.

I've claimed, I've also sold 2 cars, sold 2 motorbikes and bought 3 motorbikes since all this began.

No one is claiming increased car sales in total - there isn't the supply for a start, however there is demand and certain sections are seeing high demand and increased prices.

I tried to buy another bike yesterday - it sold with 2 hours

[Bemmer]

Throttlebody said:

Realism is my bag.

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

[Anonymous-poster]

Bemmer said:

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Is the shortage of stock due to not being able to get the cars from the storage facilities to auction or is it being “managed” to keep the values up?

[Deep Thought]

Bemmer said:

Throttlebody said:

Realism is my bag.

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Imagine how much news like this will upset him

"UK on track for V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England economist"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53233705

[Shadow R1]

Throttlebody said:

So said:

There's overbooking a track day and there's overbooking a track day.

A very Open Pit Lane.

That's the one.

[Deep Thought]

Anonymous-poster said:

Bemmer said:

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Is the shortage of stock due to not being able to get the cars from the storage facilities to auction or is it being “managed” to keep the values up?

Who said or demonstrated that used cars were being stored in storage facilities?

[Anonymous-poster]

Deep Thought said:

Anonymous-poster said:

Bemmer said:

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Is the shortage of stock due to not being able to get the cars from the storage facilities to auction or is it being “managed” to keep the values up?

Who said or demonstrated that used cars were being stored in storage facilities?

Ah, I thought the photos were of secondhand cars not new!

[TA14]

growlerowl said:

Joey Deacon said:

Currently there are 9.3 Million people on furlough and 2.6 million people on the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS). Lets just think about those figures for a second, just under 12 million people being paid by the government to stay at home.

Now the papers are painting a picture of these people having a jolly old time drinking in the garden, going to the beach, saving loads of money on commuting and just waiting to be called back to work to their job that definitely will still exist. The reality is that a large percentage of these people will have taken a large drop in salary and I am sure a large percentage are very worried about having a job to go back to.

I just find it hard to believe that all of these 12 million people are thinking "I know, with no idea of when/if we are going back to work now would be an excellent time to buy a new car". Plus is it even possible to get finance when you are furloughed, or this being Pistonheads does everybody have a six figure slush fund sitting in a bank account somewhere?

Plus now we are getting several reports a day of companies getting rid of thousands of staff with a five minute Zoom call. If you are currently on furlough you have to be wondering if you are next.

12 million people unsure they have a job = increased car sales just doesn't compute to me, at least not long term.

So hard to know as the government seem comfortable with turning on the taps but surely there's a point where diminishing returns and/or hyperinflation kicks in. I can see us needing to have government employment schemes sooner or later, and to me that type of situation does not seem compatible with current levels of car ownership. I can't see how we can avoid forced belt tightening on a mass scale. I mentioned keeping the lights on and people fed as being the priority at a certain point and was mocked but these unemployment figures are pretty historic in magnitude. I'll bet these types of scenarios are being examined in the treasury and big business etc.
But where that causes used car prices to go is anyone's guess. So many variables to consider and unknowns in terms of there being actors that will change their behaviour as the picture unfolds. I mean manufacturers will no doubt get special bailouts and may drop their prices etc. And used dealers will obviously have their own strategies in response. As will punters. And money printing could inflate the ticket price whilst the true value is diminished. In the end it seems like a classic unmodellable social science problem to me. But in broad economic terms I think we are f******, sadly.

I think that's about it as well. By any meaningful metric used car prices and new car sales volumes will fall but it may take a year or 18 months to show. Whilst the current apparent increase in prices is unexpected, the combination of manufacturers not producing cars for months has meant that people hold on to two and three year old cars for a little (lot?) longer so volumes on the second hand market are reduced and prices go up. You could argue that as car enthusiasts we should have seen that. Right now sounds like a good time to sell for individuals and businesses.

[av185]

Sevenon said:

I can 100% believe this. Cars sub £10k are definitely getting snapped up quickly. I've been looking for a £4-6k Honda Jazz for my grandad and each time I rung up, they have been sold. This is within days of them being advertised. If I drag my feet for a few days, then I ring back, they are also sold. Cars are definitely being sold in this price point and I also believe for strong money. Some car prices have crept up too since lockdown began.

I would imagine used cars above £15k will be a lot harder to shift. They are kinda in no mans land. Not cheap enough for cash or credit card, and not new or expensive enough for PCP type deals.

£15k to £100k cars are generally selling very quickly with prices rising sharply.

£100k to £350k market never been busier largely due to restticted supply of the right spec cars.

Check out Collecting Cars website Tom Hartley Romans International Bramley and Redline they are desperately seeking stock due to record sales in the last month.

[jgrewal]

Going to be a long tough road ahead - it's all good to talk about a V shaped recovery but what about a second lockdown? If Leicester has already suffered this fate we will probably see this at different points which will impact any economic bounce. Hearing similar things about Bradford and Barnsley local lockdowns coming..

Interestingly I had my 2017 C Class AMG for sale on AutoTrader for 3 weeks since start of June - hardly any calls. In the last week phone was going every few hours! Car was sold to a private buyer for asking price who paid deposit without even seeing the car in person. IMHO If the car is right and the demand is there this market will continue to stay near the prices we expect. Of course I could be wrong and this was just pent up demand..

[Algarve]

av185 said:

Check out Collecting Cars website Tom Hartley Romans International Bramley and Redline they are desperately seeking stock due to record sales in the last month.

What a tiny handful of rich people are doing has zero relevance to the overall market though.

[Deep Thought]

Anonymous-poster said:

Deep Thought said:

Anonymous-poster said:

Bemmer said:

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Is the shortage of stock due to not being able to get the cars from the storage facilities to auction or is it being “managed” to keep the values up?

Who said or demonstrated that used cars were being stored in storage facilities?

Ah, I thought the photos were of secondhand cars not new!

I "think" they were new cars. Almost certain they were.

[Deep Thought]

jgrewal said:

Going to be a long tough road ahead - it's all good to talk about a V shaped recovery but what about a second lockdown? If Leicester has already suffered this fate we will probably see this at different points which will impact any economic bounce. Hearing similar things about Bradford and Barnsley local lockdowns coming..

Interestingly I had my 2017 C Class AMG for sale on AutoTrader for 3 weeks since start of June - hardly any calls. In the last week phone was going every few hours! Car was sold to a private buyer for asking price who paid deposit without even seeing the car in person. IMHO If the car is right and the demand is there this market will continue to stay near the prices we expect. Of course I could be wrong and this was just pent up demand..

I dont think there will be a second national lockdown. Ireland have already ruled it out, based on what they now know about the disease and about their approach to treating it now. Big gains have been made already.

Localised lockdowns, yes. Particularly when you see the knuckle draggers out in force at beaches, holiday towns, protests, etc. The rules dont apply to them apparently.

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 1st July 14:31

[jammy-git]

Deep Thought said:

jgrewal said:

Going to be a long tough road ahead - it's all good to talk about a V shaped recovery but what about a second lockdown? If Leicester has already suffered this fate we will probably see this at different points which will impact any economic bounce. Hearing similar things about Bradford and Barnsley local lockdowns coming..

Interestingly I had my 2017 C Class AMG for sale on AutoTrader for 3 weeks since start of June - hardly any calls. In the last week phone was going every few hours! Car was sold to a private buyer for asking price who paid deposit without even seeing the car in person. IMHO If the car is right and the demand is there this market will continue to stay near the prices we expect. Of course I could be wrong and this was just pent up demand..

I dont think there will be a second national lockdown. Ireland have already ruled it out, based on what they now know about the disease and about their approach to treating it now. Big gains have been made already.

Localised lockdowns, yes. Particularly when you see the knuckle draggers out in force at beaches, holiday towns, protests, etc. The rules dont apply to them apparently.

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 1st July 14:31

Is there much of a difference between everywhere being on lockdown all at the same time, or 80% of towns and cities being on lockdown but at slightly different times over the course of a few months?

[av185]

Algarve said:

av185 said:

Check out Collecting Cars website Tom Hartley Romans International Bramley and Redline they are desperately seeking stock due to record sales in the last month.

What a tiny handful of rich people are doing has zero relevance to the overall market though.

My point was in reply to the poster saying £15k and above cars are/will struggle for which the opposite is true.

Demand for used cars across the board at all prices is as strong as it has ever been and there are no signs of this easing for the forseeable future for reasons already discussed.

[Deep Thought]

jammy-git said:

Deep Thought said:

jgrewal said:

Going to be a long tough road ahead - it's all good to talk about a V shaped recovery but what about a second lockdown? If Leicester has already suffered this fate we will probably see this at different points which will impact any economic bounce. Hearing similar things about Bradford and Barnsley local lockdowns coming..

Interestingly I had my 2017 C Class AMG for sale on AutoTrader for 3 weeks since start of June - hardly any calls. In the last week phone was going every few hours! Car was sold to a private buyer for asking price who paid deposit without even seeing the car in person. IMHO If the car is right and the demand is there this market will continue to stay near the prices we expect. Of course I could be wrong and this was just pent up demand..

I dont think there will be a second national lockdown. Ireland have already ruled it out, based on what they now know about the disease and about their approach to treating it now. Big gains have been made already.

Localised lockdowns, yes. Particularly when you see the knuckle draggers out in force at beaches, holiday towns, protests, etc. The rules dont apply to them apparently.

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 1st July 14:31

Is there much of a difference between everywhere being on lockdown all at the same time, or 80% of towns and cities being on lockdown but at slightly different times over the course of a few months?

If we see 80%, then no. I dont think we'll see 80% though.

[Deep Thought]

av185 said:

Algarve said:

av185 said:

Check out Collecting Cars website Tom Hartley Romans International Bramley and Redline they are desperately seeking stock due to record sales in the last month.

What a tiny handful of rich people are doing has zero relevance to the overall market though.

My point was in reply to the poster saying £15k and above cars are/will struggle for which the opposite is true.

[b]Demand for used cars across the board at all prices is as strong as it has ever been and there are no signs of this easing for the forseeable future for reasons already discussed[b/].

Demand for small vans seems also to be up. Prices generally seem to be up.

[Mexman]

Bemmer said:

But it's not just Mexmans business is it? The used car industry across the board are ALL experiencing a up turn in demand. Autotrader increasing used
stock values, Auctions quoting high residuals way above CAP Clean because of a shortage of stock, so therefore dealers are putting up the price of some stock. I don't find it strange? It's a fact....

Yep, all done, 10 cars out of 21 currently, all increased in price this morning.

[growlerowl]

Deep Thought said:

I dont think there will be a second national lockdown. Ireland have already ruled it out, based on what they now know about the disease and about their approach to treating it now. Big gains have been made already.

Localised lockdowns, yes. Particularly when you see the knuckle draggers out in force at beaches, holiday towns, protests, etc. The rules dont apply to them apparently.

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 1st July 14:31

Nobody mention Leicester