Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[Deep Thought]

growlerowl said:

Deep Thought said:

I dont think there will be a second national lockdown. Ireland have already ruled it out, based on what they now know about the disease and about their approach to treating it now. Big gains have been made already.

Localised lockdowns, yes. Particularly when you see the knuckle draggers out in force at beaches, holiday towns, protests, etc. The rules dont apply to them apparently.

Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 1st July 14:31

Nobody mention Leicester

Just to clarify - you edited out the reference to Leicester in the original quote and that we were talking about and had acknowledged, just so you could then say "Nobody mention Leicester"?

[Shadow R1]

Deep Thought said:

Anonymous-poster said:

Deep Thought said:

Anonymous-poster said:

Bemmer said:

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Is the shortage of stock due to not being able to get the cars from the storage facilities to auction or is it being “managed” to keep the values up?

Who said or demonstrated that used cars were being stored in storage facilities?

Ah, I thought the photos were of secondhand cars not new!

I "think" they were new cars. Almost certain they were.

They are 2nd hand at both sites.

[syl]

Deep Thought said:

Imagine how much news like this will upset him

"UK on track for V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England economist"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53233705

My thoughts from the headline too, but I was far less optimistic after reading the article.

Unfortunately I think there will be a price we all have to pay, though it won’t be as bad as some make out. I do think values will fall in the latter part of the year as the truth becomes known, but not spectacularly. I’d rather it didn’t though, I have much more to gain from a booming economy.

[jammy-git]

Deep Thought said:

If we see 80%, then no. I dont think we'll see 80% though.

I wouldn't be too sure. I have friends who work at several different East Kent hospitals and they've all said they've seen cases and outbreaks on wards in the last two weeks - so that's a result of the very beginning of the lockdown restrictions being lifted. We've since had two weeks of shops beginning to open, loads of people flocking to beaches, pubs opening this weekend. We have very few restrictions in place. We're effectively where we were back in late Feb/early March. (Recent) history will repeat itself because we've done very little to make any difference.

[Deep Thought]

Shadow R1 said:

They are 2nd hand at both sites.

If you have actual evidence of that, then that surprises me.

[Deep Thought]

syl said:

Deep Thought said:

Imagine how much news like this will upset him

"UK on track for V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England economist"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53233705

My thoughts from the headline too, but I was far less optimistic after reading the article.

[b]Unfortunately I think there will be a price we all have to pay, though it won’t be as bad as some make out. I do think values will fall in the latter part of the year as the truth becomes known, but not spectacularly. I’d rather it didn’t though, I have much more to gain from a booming economy.{/b]

Agreed, and likewise

[ghost83]

I am still going to go out on a limb and say once furlough ends and we know who’s survived and who hasn’t I think autumn will still be the time when recession hits!

I know of 56 different people now that have used bounce back loans to buy cars or vans with (mix of customers and friends) as soon as these schemes end things will start to dry up! The first wave will hit end of July start of August and then after october

[Deep Thought]

jammy-git said:

Deep Thought said:

If we see 80%, then no. I dont think we'll see 80% though.

I wouldn't be too sure. I have friends who work at several different East Kent hospitals and they've all said they've seen cases and outbreaks on wards in the last two weeks - so that's a result of the very beginning of the lockdown restrictions being lifted. We've since had two weeks of shops beginning to open, loads of people flocking to beaches, pubs opening this weekend. We have very few restrictions in place. We're effectively where we were back in late Feb/early March. (Recent) history will repeat itself because we've done very little to make any difference.

Its going to be about control, what we now know about the virus and how to deal with it, how we treat people who have it, what we treat them with and how we ensure less people die.

But yes, what you're saying is a viable risk.

[Deep Thought]

ghost83 said:

I am still going to go out on a limb and say once furlough ends and we know who’s survived and who hasn’t I think autumn will still be the time when recession hits!

I know of 56 different people now that have used bounce back loans to buy cars or vans with (mix of customers and friends) as soon as these schemes end things will start to dry up! The first wave will hit end of July start of August and then after october

I dont think you're going out on a limb there at all. I think thats the general consensus.

The difference in views is around how bad that will be.

[jammy-git]

Deep Thought said:

jammy-git said:

Deep Thought said:

If we see 80%, then no. I dont think we'll see 80% though.

I wouldn't be too sure. I have friends who work at several different East Kent hospitals and they've all said they've seen cases and outbreaks on wards in the last two weeks - so that's a result of the very beginning of the lockdown restrictions being lifted. We've since had two weeks of shops beginning to open, loads of people flocking to beaches, pubs opening this weekend. We have very few restrictions in place. We're effectively where we were back in late Feb/early March. (Recent) history will repeat itself because we've done very little to make any difference.

Its going to be about control, what we now know about the virus and how to deal with it, how we treat people who have it, what we treat them with and how we ensure less people die.

But yes, what you're saying is a viable risk.

I guess you missed the press conference with the Mayor of Leicester yesterday. He was lamenting the fact that they'd be requesting data from the government from more than two weeks ago but it was very slow to arrive, so there was little they could do about the rise in cases because they had no idea where in Leicester the cases were!

I completely agree with you that it's about control. But it seems we're still not testing enough, people are still not doing what they can/should be doing to restrict the transmission and those on the front line still aren't getting the support they need.

[Venisonpie]

Deep Thought said:

ghost83 said:

I am still going to go out on a limb and say once furlough ends and we know who’s survived and who hasn’t I think autumn will still be the time when recession hits!

I know of 56 different people now that have used bounce back loans to buy cars or vans with (mix of customers and friends) as soon as these schemes end things will start to dry up! The first wave will hit end of July start of August and then after october

I dont think you're going out on a limb there at all. I think thats the general consensus.

It's almost like cars have become the new bog roll, people are falling over themselves to buy stuff at the moment. We're a nation of shopaholics whose been denied a fix for 3 months.

Someone mentioned vans, dealers are panic buying stock, I've got stuff that is barely better than scrap making above cap average. Nuts.

[Deep Thought]

jammy-git said:

I guess you missed the press conference with the Mayor of Leicester yesterday. He was lamenting the fact that they'd be requesting data from the government from more than two weeks ago but it was very slow to arrive, so there was little they could do about the rise in cases because they had no idea where in Leicester the cases were!

I completely agree with you that it's about control. But it seems we're still not testing enough, people are still not doing what they can/should be doing to restrict the transmission and those on the front line still aren't getting the support they need.

Agreed

We are by no means "out of the woods". We're not where we need to be in terms of control and theres too many knuckle draggers who dont think the rules apply to them.

[Deep Thought]

Venisonpie said:

It's almost like cars have become the new bog roll, people are falling over themselves to buy stuff at the moment. We're a nation of shopaholics whose been denied a fix for 3 months.

Someone mentioned vans, dealers are panic buying stock, I've got stuff that is barely better than scrap making above cap average. Nuts.

Yes, i've watched small vans go through an online trade auction group i follow at near retail money....

[Throttlebody]

93DW said:

Throttlebody said:

Don’t worry, I’m not expecting to get a £7k car for £1k. Realism is my bag.

I know that's not what you meant, If you think you'll be picking up cheaper-than-usual sub £1500 cars then you will be disappointed.

There will be more choice, that’s the key point.

[Butter Face]

Throttlebody said:

93DW said:

Throttlebody said:

Don’t worry, I’m not expecting to get a £7k car for £1k. Realism is my bag.

I know that's not what you meant, If you think you'll be picking up cheaper-than-usual sub £1500 cars then you will be disappointed.

There will be more choice, that’s the key point.

And if you’re right, more buyers getting their PCP Land Rovers repossessed so you’re still st out of luck

[Throttlebody]

Bemmer said:

Throttlebody said:

Realism is my bag.

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Chap posted up his long term survey and analysis earlier and prices were dropping.

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

93DW said:

Throttlebody said:

Don’t worry, I’m not expecting to get a £7k car for £1k. Realism is my bag.

I know that's not what you meant, If you think you'll be picking up cheaper-than-usual sub £1500 cars then you will be disappointed.

There will be more choice, that’s the key point.

Why do you think that? Cheap cars are being snapped up by people avoiding using public transport and quite likely those downsizing.

I'm seeing less cheapies about now, rather than more. I stick the odd car on facebook for a friend of mine whos a trader and the cheap stuff just flies out. Even stuff with crazy mega miles.

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Bemmer said:

Throttlebody said:

Realism is my bag.

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Chap posted up his long term survey and analysis earlier and prices were dropping.

If you took out the heavy drop by the Mustang i think the outcome would have been different.

Also, never a good idea to average an average

[Throttlebody]

Deep Thought said:

Imagine how much news like this will upset him

"UK on track for V-shaped recovery, says Bank of England economist"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53233705

Very pessimistic article. The BoE is still trying to stand by its ‘V’ predictions, the markets are more realistic though and always factor BoE predictions based on previous elements of spin and it’s desire to not spook the markets. More upside than downside.

[Throttlebody]

Deep Thought said:

Throttlebody said:

Bemmer said:

Throttlebody said:

Realism is my bag.

but it's clearly not..? You won't except the facts..? Prices are not dropping..? There is a shortage of used stock..? You continually bang on about all doom and gloom but the dealers are saying the contrary and your not listening..?

Chap posted up his long term survey and analysis earlier and prices were dropping.

If you took out the heavy drop by the Mustang i think the outcome would have been different.

Also, never a good idea to average an average

Or equally you could take out cars with a +ve price trend.