Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[av185]

BananaSlug said:

Thats great you’re doing well bit I feel the pain is just starting as the furlough scheme starts tapering down next month and there has already been a huge amount of job losses.

There will be plenty of people that wont be able to buy/change their car and plenty who won’t have the confidence to.

No one wanted this to happen and its bad for everyone, I had my eye on a couple of 991.1 gts cars a few months ago but this isn’t time for that now, I’d rather invest in property/stocks, Im expecting price drop at the start of next year.

The start of the new year will be the worst time to buy a used car especially a Porsche 991.1 as dealers will be desperate to buy stock after the quiet festive period and this years restrictions on Porsche production.

Unless that is you want to pay a high price.

Next year will be no different.

[Auto810graphy]

Thankyou4calling said:

SMMT sales figures for June 2020 out tomorrow.

223,000 sales in June 2019.

Pent up demand
Audi dealers selling 15 in a day
Dealerships “Really busy”

Who wants to guess how this will translate to actual factual?

What would be considered good?

Place your bets fellas.

I would take the figures with a pinch of salt as we could have sold and registered so many more vehicles but the new stock and availability are poor at the moment. Also some of the country is still on partial lock down with no new cars being registered eg Arnold Clark.

[Deep Thought]

Thankyou4calling said:

SMMT sales figures for June 2020 out tomorrow.

223,000 sales in June 2019.

Pent up demand
Audi dealers selling 15 in a day
Dealerships “Really busy”

Who wants to guess how this will translate to actual factual?

What would be considered good?

Place your bets fellas.

New cars? Probably 70% of that +/- 10%. Not all dealers have had a full months trading, many didnt bring back all staff (hence possibly amplifying the "really busy" vibe) not all cars bought / ordered will be registered in that month.

We are still in a pandemic and that will have an impact.

What are you thinking percentage wise?

[growlerowl]

Mexman said:

How have I lost the argument exactly?
Personal attacks, err...hang on a second, have you read back to yourself, your own posts?
It appears that most car salesman on here got it right at the beginning, so much for us having half a brain eh?
Where are all of these bargains?

Some like Eliot are man enough to admit they got it wrong months ago, and fair play to him.
How long it will last is a pure guess, make hay whilst the sun shines and all that.
Others however, need to go and relieve themselves over the lingerie section, in their Mums Kay's catalogue.

Do you honestly think we're near the end of this whole thing? To borrow from Churchill I'd suggest we are actually at the end of the beginning, and when the Chancellor is contemplating classic helicopter money (£500 voucher to every adult!) it's a giant flashing warning sign that economically we're on the brink. The pain was just delayed by the furlough scheme. Money printing is heading towards last ditch type of efforts.

[Deep Thought]

BananaSlug said:

Thats great you’re doing well bit I feel the pain is just starting as the furlough scheme starts tapering down next month and there has already been a huge amount of job losses.

There will be plenty of people that wont be able to buy/change their car and plenty who won’t have the confidence to.

No one wanted this to happen and its bad for everyone, I had my eye on a couple of 991.1 gts cars a few months ago but this isn’t time for that now, I’d rather invest in property/stocks, Im expecting price drop at the start of next year.

I'm broadly in agreement with this. The one thing i would say is - and this is based on my cynicism of the general public rather than optimism - i dont think consumer confidence is going to play as big a part as many people think. Those relatively unaffected will continue with their lifestyles.

[Thankyou4calling]

I think 70% of last year

Around 160,000 registered.

[HTP99]

Deep Thought said:

Thankyou4calling said:

SMMT sales figures for June 2020 out tomorrow.

223,000 sales in June 2019.

Pent up demand
Audi dealers selling 15 in a day
Dealerships “Really busy”

Who wants to guess how this will translate to actual factual?

What would be considered good?

Place your bets fellas.

New cars? Probably 70% of that +/- 10%. Not all dealers have had a full months trading, many didnt bring back all staff (hence possibly amplifying the "really busy" vibe) not all cars bought / ordered will be registered in that month.

We are still in a pandemic and that will have an impact.

What are you thinking percentage wise?

Don't forget though all the cars that were ordered prior to lockdown which would have been registered end of March, April and May, however were registered in June.

[Deep Thought]

growlerowl said:

Mexman said:

How have I lost the argument exactly?
Personal attacks, err...hang on a second, have you read back to yourself, your own posts?
It appears that most car salesman on here got it right at the beginning, so much for us having half a brain eh?
Where are all of these bargains?

Some like Eliot are man enough to admit they got it wrong months ago, and fair play to him.
How long it will last is a pure guess, make hay whilst the sun shines and all that.
Others however, need to go and relieve themselves over the lingerie section, in their Mums Kay's catalogue.

Do you honestly think we're near the end of this whole thing? To borrow from Churchill I'd suggest we are actually at the end of the beginning, and when the Chancellor is contemplating classic helicopter money (£500 voucher to every adult!) it's a giant flashing warning sign that economically we're on the brink. The pain was just delayed by the furlough scheme. Money printing is heading towards last ditch type of efforts.

Where has he - or anyone - said we're near the end of this?

Even in that post he said - how long it will last is anyones guess.

If i was in sales i'd definitely be doing as Mexman is saying they are doing - make hay while the sun shines and bolster the business for the road ahead.

[Anonymous-poster]

HTP99 said:

Deep Thought said:

Thankyou4calling said:

SMMT sales figures for June 2020 out tomorrow.

223,000 sales in June 2019.

Pent up demand
Audi dealers selling 15 in a day
Dealerships “Really busy”

Who wants to guess how this will translate to actual factual?

What would be considered good?

Place your bets fellas.

New cars? Probably 70% of that +/- 10%. Not all dealers have had a full months trading, many didnt bring back all staff (hence possibly amplifying the "really busy" vibe) not all cars bought / ordered will be registered in that month.

We are still in a pandemic and that will have an impact.

What are you thinking percentage wise?

Don't forget though all the cars that were ordered prior to lockdown which would have been registered end of March, April and May, however were registered in June.

If they were delivered to the franchise?

[HTP99]

Anonymous-poster said:

HTP99 said:

Deep Thought said:

Thankyou4calling said:

SMMT sales figures for June 2020 out tomorrow.

223,000 sales in June 2019.

Pent up demand
Audi dealers selling 15 in a day
Dealerships “Really busy”

Who wants to guess how this will translate to actual factual?

What would be considered good?

Place your bets fellas.

New cars? Probably 70% of that +/- 10%. Not all dealers have had a full months trading, many didnt bring back all staff (hence possibly amplifying the "really busy" vibe) not all cars bought / ordered will be registered in that month.

We are still in a pandemic and that will have an impact.

What are you thinking percentage wise?

Don't forget though all the cars that were ordered prior to lockdown which would have been registered end of March, April and May, however were registered in June.

If they were delivered to the franchise?

Why wouldn't that have been delivered?

[Deep Thought]

HTP99 said:

Don't forget though all the cars that were ordered prior to lockdown which would have been registered end of March, April and May, however were registered in June.

I think my figure is relatively conservative and i'd like - for the sake of the industry and everyones jobs - to be pleasantly surprised by a figure in excess of that.

[Mexman]

growlerowl said:

Do you honestly think we're near the end of this whole thing? To borrow from Churchill I'd suggest we are actually at the end of the beginning, and when the Chancellor is contemplating classic helicopter money (£500 voucher to every adult!) it's a giant flashing warning sign that economically we're on the brink. The pain was just delayed by the furlough scheme. Money printing is heading towards last ditch type of efforts.

No, I'm not naive enough to think that the motor trade will be exempt from an economic crash, just that it has not happened yet, and probably will not, for a while yet.
When or if it happens, then we will deal with it, and get thru it, there isn't a lot we can do about it, so I for one, am not overly concerned.
Cars will still sell, albeit, in reduced numbers, my earnings will fall, so my spending will fall.
Lockdown has proved one thing, although earning a lot less, whilst furloughed, my bank balance has shot up.

[Deep Thought]

Mexman said:

No, I'm not naive enough to think that the motor trade will be exempt from a economic crash, just that it has not happened yet, and probably will not, for a while yet.
When or if it happens, then we will deal with it, and get thru it, there isn't a lot we can do about it, so I for one, am not overly concerned.
Cars will still sell, albeit, in reduced numbers, my earnings will fall, so my spending will fall.
Lockdown has proved one thing, although earning a lot less, whilst furloughed, my bank balance has shot up.

I think thats a sensible and pragmatic approach and one that the motor industry and those in the motor industry will take. Granted there will be casualties because of this, and no doubt a significant amount of people will lose their jobs but those remaining will adapt and adjust.

It surprises me when people like ThroBo expect the industry to just sit on its hands, pretent nothing is wrong and not adapt.

[Venisonpie]

Auto810graphy said:

Venisonpie said:

Will you trade in SOR if not holding any stock or source individually for demand customers?

Our main business is vehicle leasing where we are a broker for some of the major finance companies so quite a lot is new. Alongside this we provide sourcing and alternative finance as well as some used sales as we often need to handle the disposal of clients vehicles.

Due to our customer base we do get some high end cars in so most used stuff over £50k gets traded or SOR with trusted partners but we do need to watch prices as these cars are technically ours for a short period of time between the finance being settled and the car being sold.

Basically we are keeping an eye on what we have and trying to sell it within 21 days of arrival, if this does not happen price drops and trade out options.

Sorry, I assumed you were a dealer rather than a lease operator. Fully understand your caution.

[growlerowl]

mike74 said:

Whilst I agree with all that I think the govt will just keep on throwing the kitchen sink at it in terms of handing out cheap/free money to the feckless spendthrifts and debt junkies, it's the only way to keep the charade that is laughingly referred to as the 'UK economy' going.

There are limits though - diminishing returns, hyperinflation. At some point they will be forced to stop/revert to a temporary war economy to keep the lights on. I'm not saying this will happen or that I want it, just that endless money printing is not a genuine option.

[Anonymous-poster]

HTP99 said:

Anonymous-poster said:

HTP99 said:

Deep Thought said:

Thankyou4calling said:

SMMT sales figures for June 2020 out tomorrow.

223,000 sales in June 2019.

Pent up demand
Audi dealers selling 15 in a day
Dealerships “Really busy”

Who wants to guess how this will translate to actual factual?

What would be considered good?

Place your bets fellas.

New cars? Probably 70% of that +/- 10%. Not all dealers have had a full months trading, many didnt bring back all staff (hence possibly amplifying the "really busy" vibe) not all cars bought / ordered will be registered in that month.

We are still in a pandemic and that will have an impact.

What are you thinking percentage wise?

Don't forget though all the cars that were ordered prior to lockdown which would have been registered end of March, April and May, however were registered in June.

If they were delivered to the franchise?

Why wouldn't that have been delivered?

There was 2pictures earlier in the thread of thousands of “new” cars in holding compounds?

[growlerowl]

Deep Thought said:

Where has he - or anyone - said we're near the end of this?

Even in that post he said - how long it will last is anyones guess.

If i was in sales i'd definitely be doing as Mexman is saying they are doing - make hay while the sun shines and bolster the business for the road ahead.

There's plenty of crowing going on but just because the government happened to pour vast sums of money into the furlough scheme, doesn't make anyone on the 'prices won't fall' side any kind of sage like genius.

[WilliamWaiver]

Seems like the used car market is buoyant for the time being. Pent up demand and low supply means basic economics is kicking in so much so some prices of the lumpy stuff have actually gone up.
I've been bid £30k more than 6 months ago on one of my 1 year old supercars presumably because there is no/very limited new car production and low used car stock and in comparison to list price a nearly new car is a massive saving still.
Seems like a lot of the governments grant money to businesses is finding its way into supercar purchases rather than what it was designed for from what I am hearing repeatedly which is disgraceful

[Deep Thought]

growlerowl said:

Deep Thought said:

Where has he - or anyone - said we're near the end of this?

Even in that post he said - how long it will last is anyones guess.

If i was in sales i'd definitely be doing as Mexman is saying they are doing - make hay while the sun shines and bolster the business for the road ahead.

There's plenty of crowing going on but just because the government happened to pour vast sums of money into the furlough scheme, doesn't make anyone on the 'prices won't fall' side any kind of sage like genius.

I think it speaks volumes that you see it as "crowing".

Nor is anyone saying they're a sage like genius for predicting prices may fall at some point - except ThroBo of course.

[Anonymous-poster]

Deep Thought said:

growlerowl said:

Deep Thought said:

Where has he - or anyone - said we're near the end of this?

Even in that post he said - how long it will last is anyones guess.

If i was in sales i'd definitely be doing as Mexman is saying they are doing - make hay while the sun shines and bolster the business for the road ahead.

There's plenty of crowing going on but just because the government happened to pour vast sums of money into the furlough scheme, doesn't make anyone on the 'prices won't fall' side any kind of sage like genius.

I think it speaks volumes that you see it as "crowing".

Nor is anyone saying they're a sage like genius for predicting prices may fall at some point - except ThroBo of course.

Is crowing the opposite of sneering?