Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[Harris_I]

av185 said:

The 10% hard Brexit surcharge if imposed could very well support used car prices further particularly nearly new stuff for obvious reasons.

Mid to high end priced late stuff will doubtless show a substantial uplift.

That may indeed be the case _if_ the tariff is not negotiated. Although for 4 year old cars the uplift would of course be small. Plus, of course, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a glut of 2-4 year old cars coming out of finance, many under voluntary termination, as the helicopter money runs out and consumers feel the need to tighten belts.

Anyway it was the absolute certainty with which he predicted 20-30% rises and it somehow being linked to VAT that got me

[stevemcs]

I keep watching V8 Mustangs and the ones around 26-28k are selling within a week.

[Wills2]

Auto810graphy said:

Throttlebody said:

Significant point is 71% of buyers want a better deal than was available pre CV19. They see CV19 as a significant milestone in their attitude and expectation for a new car deal.

Not really that significant, if anything that is low. Imagine asking 10 pub goes if they wanted lower prices, I would expect 100% would want this.

Once again you are just stating the obvious

Everything that guy has posted on this thread has been proven to be utter bilge, stating the obvious is a high point for him TBH.

[Auto810graphy]

Watching this weeks auction prices and trade defleets the trade market still seems strong with most stuff hitting CAP clean.

Older vans look to be calming down slightly but late used are still strong money with less being offered in the marketplace due to new supply issues.

Cars are all still selling well however I am now wondering if there is going to be a hit In 4-7 year old Non premium sub £12k diesel hatchback / SUV market as prices I am seeing for Qashqai, XTrail, Octavia, Golf etc just seem to high in my head compared to a three year old one.

We got some 2015 Qashqai manuals underwritten by a trader yesterday at CAP clean but they looked expensive to me.

• These are my personal observations

[Throttlebody]

Auto810graphy said:

Throttlebody said:

Significant point is 71% of buyers want a better deal than was available pre CV19. They see CV19 as a significant milestone in their attitude and expectation for a new car deal.

Not really that significant, if anything that is low. Imagine asking 10 pub goes if they wanted lower prices, I would expect 100% would want this.

Once again you are just stating the obvious

I can see your having difficulty grasping the premise and significance of the survey question.

It’s about a pre and post CV19 consumer attitude change.

[Throttlebody]

Analysis and feedback from SMMT disappointing June sales figures:

- EV and hybrid sales increasing. Continuing pre CV19 trend.
- Diesel sales down. Continuing pre CV19 trend.
- More sales due to avoidance of public transport. (Lower part ex rate).
- ‘Revenge sales’ Buyers compensating for lockdown and restricted holidays. (Lower part ex rate)
- Fleet sales very depressed.
- Sales boosted by delayed existing pre-lockdown, pre-Jun orders.
- Scottish and Welsh sales not fully on stream.

[The spinner of plates]

It’s certainly a very interesting time and the dynamics playing out are fascinating.

Personally I’d rather be selling used for the next few years.

[Deep Thought]

The spinner of plates said:

It’s certainly a very interesting time and the dynamics playing out are fascinating.

Personally I’d rather be selling used for the next few years.

Yup. Interesting at the moment because we can see the dynamics playing out.

I've a feeling that over time there will be lower peaks and troughs therefore harder to see / demonstrate a real world impact.

I guess the next big one likely to create an impact is the ending of furlough or if in the meantime we saw hit after hit after hit of big redundancies and consumer confidence went down dramatically quickly because of it.

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Auto810graphy said:

Throttlebody said:

Significant point is 71% of buyers want a better deal than was available pre CV19. They see CV19 as a significant milestone in their attitude and expectation for a new car deal.

Not really that significant, if anything that is low. Imagine asking 10 pub goes if they wanted lower prices, I would expect 100% would want this.

Once again you are just stating the obvious

I can see your having difficulty grasping the premise and significance of the survey question.

It’s about a pre and post CV19 consumer attitude change.

And we can see you're having difficulty grasping how easily that is overcome both with tailored deals that are currently available, future adjustments manufacturers make to selling incentives, and expectation management by the dealers.

I dont think there will be any manufacturers or franchisees looking at that and going "71% of people expecting a better deal? Well thats it lads, game over. We may as well pack up and go home".

Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 10th July 12:27

[Throttlebody]

Deep Thought said:

Throttlebody said:

Auto810graphy said:

Throttlebody said:

Significant point is 71% of buyers want a better deal than was available pre CV19. They see CV19 as a significant milestone in their attitude and expectation for a new car deal.

Not really that significant, if anything that is low. Imagine asking 10 pub goes if they wanted lower prices, I would expect 100% would want this.

Once again you are just stating the obvious

I can see your having difficulty grasping the premise and significance of the survey question.

It’s about a pre and post CV19 consumer attitude change.

And we can see you're having difficulty grasping how easily that is overcome both with tailored deals that are currently available, future adjustments manufacturers make to selling incentives, and expectation management by the dealers.

I dont think there will be any manufacturers or franchisees looking at that and going "71% of people expecting a better deal? Well thats it lads, game over. We may as well pack up and go home".

Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 10th July 12:27

Well if manufacturers and dealers meet consumers post CV19 expectations with better new car deals, then job done right.

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Deep Thought said:

Throttlebody said:

Auto810graphy said:

Throttlebody said:

Significant point is 71% of buyers want a better deal than was available pre CV19. They see CV19 as a significant milestone in their attitude and expectation for a new car deal.

Not really that significant, if anything that is low. Imagine asking 10 pub goes if they wanted lower prices, I would expect 100% would want this.

Once again you are just stating the obvious

I can see your having difficulty grasping the premise and significance of the survey question.

It’s about a pre and post CV19 consumer attitude change.

And we can see you're having difficulty grasping how easily that is overcome both with tailored deals that are currently available, future adjustments manufacturers make to selling incentives, and expectation management by the dealers.

I dont think there will be any manufacturers or franchisees looking at that and going "71% of people expecting a better deal? Well thats it lads, game over. We may as well pack up and go home".

Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 10th July 12:27

Well if manufacturers and dealers meet consumers post CV19 expectations with better new car deals, then job done right.

And still missing the point i see.

No doubt purposely as usual.

[mistermexican]

I think a lot depends on a future that nobody knows yet. Nobody really knows what's going to happen with COVID-19 and if there's going to be a second, third or fourth spike, or if it's just going to trundle on for years at a low level or if it dies off.

It also depends on how much the government choose to support the economy, especially if there is a second or multiple waves. We know that furlough won't continue past the end of October so the real effect on the economy won't be known until then at the earliest but probably more like February-April 2021.

If there's a second (or multiple waves) and the government does nothing more to help then I can see a lot of unemployment and a lot of new and used cars not selling, and cars on finance that people can't afford coming onto the market.

If however, COVID-19 trundles on a low but manageable pace then I can see less impact on it.

So it could go either way. I personally think there'll be a second wave in October(ish) and even some more mini-waves after that and I don't think the government will do much more to provide support due to the massive cost it has already incurred. Just my view though.

[jimPH]

I think we will see a second wave, but we will manage it. I don't think the economy can afford a second lockdown, certainly not look like the first anyway.

Best we can do is shield the most susceptible.

[Roaringopenfire]

wsn03 said:

Don't know where I read it, on here possibly, but with all the working from home just can't see how the car industry isn't going to take a big hit - expensive cars come with bigger margins surely? I would be worried if I was working for JLR, especially knowing how close to the wind they sail.

We are both working, both now likely to be mainly based from home as working practices in our industry (IT) seem to be changing. Some office will return, but the normal Friday from home will most likely become Monday, Thursday, Friday...or maybe it more?

My neighbours had a car write off before lock down, and were about to buy something new. With the change to his work practices seemingly now permanent they've decided to just keep the one car - another sale lost. Wonder how many other households are going to cut down on numbers of cars - the 2nd hand car we are eyeing up (BMW 420 MSport about 6 yrs old) seems to be dropping in price slowly but significantly.

The fallout for the economy has yet to properly start...this is going to be a big one.

Your perspective shows how difficult it is to call the market. In my case, now working from home permanently, I sold the 1 series diesel which was the commute car and have since bought two 3 litre, 6 cylinder cars (BMW and Porsche). The mileage that I do is now all leisure and brilliant fun.

[Deep Thought]

jimPH said:

I think we will see a second wave, but we will manage it. I don't think the economy can afford a second lockdown, certainly not look like the first anyway.

Best we can do is shield the most susceptible.

Agreed.

I think we know a lot more about the illness now, we can track and trace more easily, we know how to help people better when they are ill, if they are seriously ill there are various medications that can now assist and the % death rate from it is coming down accordingly.

I think we'll see local hotspots that will be managed and locked down but we absolutely cant afford another full lockdown. Its now going to be about managing the illness in society. We cant all just sit at home and hope it goes away because it isnt.

[Throttlebody]

Talking about sitting at home and with the joys of post CV19 developing e-commerce, here’s something for the BMW fanboys -

BMW UK has launched its digital car locator that gives customers real-time access to new stock across its entire dealer network.

It comes as the group says online car reservations soared by 130 per cent in May on April’s figure, with the trend continuing into June. Hello DT.

BMW Group UK, said: ‘In what is clearly going to be a challenging year for automotive retail, it is more important than ever that we provide customers with the right tools to research their next vehicle from home’

Get full access to uber machines while sitting on your bog in your M+S slippers.

[AndrewNR]

Roaringopenfire said:

Your perspective shows how difficult it is to call the market. In my case, now working from home permanently, I sold the 1 series diesel which was the commute car and have since bought two 3 litre, 6 cylinder cars (BMW and Porsche). The mileage that I do is now all leisure and brilliant fun.

Yeah, I think people still 'want' a vehicle whether they do 1,000 or 20,000 miles per year.
The biggest hit will be the revenue the Government receive from fuel sales; car sales may stay the same but attitudes on a car's use have changed.

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Talking about sitting at home and with the joys of post CV19 developing e-commerce, here’s something for the BMW fanboys -

BMW UK has launched its digital car locator that gives customers real-time access to new stock across its entire dealer network.

It comes as the group says online car reservations soared by 130 per cent in May on April’s figure, with the trend continuing into June. Hello DT.

BMW Group UK, said: ‘In what is clearly going to be a challenging year for automotive retail, it is more important than ever that we provide customers with the right tools to research their next vehicle from home’

Get full access to uber machines while sitting on your bog in your M+S slippers.

Hardly a surprise it "soared" in May during lockdown. Probably from 10 to 13.

I've had a quick look and it seems only to allow you to select a dealer and show you their new car stock, so fairly hopeless. I'd have thought "blue BMW 330i M Sport, with X, Y, Z options" across the UK would have been far more sensible, given cars can be moved about anyway.

Also, even if my local dealer has a car i want, it will let you reserve and buy the car AT LIST PRICE then passes your details to your local dealer anyway.

Brilliant.

Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 12th July 13:04

[Deep Thought]

AndrewNR said:

Roaringopenfire said:

Your perspective shows how difficult it is to call the market. In my case, now working from home permanently, I sold the 1 series diesel which was the commute car and have since bought two 3 litre, 6 cylinder cars (BMW and Porsche). The mileage that I do is now all leisure and brilliant fun.

Yeah, I think people still 'want' a vehicle whether they do 1,000 or 20,000 miles per year.
The biggest hit will be the revenue the Government receive from fuel sales; car sales may stay the same but attitudes on a car's use have changed.

Fuels sales, and VAT and tax on new car sales. That would be threefold - if volumes on new cars drop they lose tax revenue, if people chose cheaper cars instead they lose tax revenue and if people buy used instead they'll lose tax revenue too (VAT on margin not on total price)

[Deep Thought]

AndrewNR said:

Roaringopenfire said:

Your perspective shows how difficult it is to call the market. In my case, now working from home permanently, I sold the 1 series diesel which was the commute car and have since bought two 3 litre, 6 cylinder cars (BMW and Porsche). The mileage that I do is now all leisure and brilliant fun.

Yeah, I think people still 'want' a vehicle whether they do 1,000 or 20,000 miles per year.
The biggest hit will be the revenue the Government receive from fuel sales; car sales may stay the same but attitudes on a car's use have changed.

If people continue to WFH then absolutely, but there now seems to be a "get back to the office" message being propagated from the gov - which is quite disappointing but presumably to support all those local supporting businesses in town centres- coffee shops,etc.

Plus businesses may still expect people to be in the office "some" days a week, thus maybe still meaning a reasonable commuting requirement.

I wonder how many of those people currently fully WFH will still be doing that this time next year?