Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
RUSTILLDOWN said:
I agree with many things that u say apart from when you’re really wound up by someone lol, however, I recommend u don’t make personal attacks about people’s financial position.
I will take on board your constructive feedback 
RUSTILLDOWN said:
Anyway, don’t know how much your “cost to change” was (nice purchase) and all is good if peanuts to the individual as it’s just changing one asset for another.
Cost to change wasnt the factor with the Z4C, nor was it when buying the 330i. Both of those (as per the 2013 ST Focus before it) i've been running as "cost neutral" (or as close to it as possible). So far so good.... RUSTILLDOWN said:
However, many cars have significant depreciation and unless someone is loaded I really REALLY don’t understand why anyone would currently change unless there’s a specific reason (e.g. end of finance agreement).
I think theres various reasons, including the one you've mentioned already. But its also worth noting that while many are WFH theres a very significant percentage of people still need to commute to and from their place of work. With that in mind...- End of finance agreement (as you said already)
- Need something bigger (people carrier, estate car)
- Want something smaller - dont need a big 4x4 any more
- Fresh requirement - now commuting as i dont want to use a bus or train
- Need something more economical - different job, longer commute
- Not doing the miles anymore, want something nice(r) instead of what they have
I think most people in that category will put that off until next year.
Mr Tidy said:
av185 said:
Yup there is little incentive to save.
It gets worse. Wait until your parents have to go into care....those that have saved all their life and own a (nice) property will have to pay their own exhorbitant care fees whereas those who pissed their money away will of course be entitled to free care.
Just been there and done that. It gets worse. Wait until your parents have to go into care....those that have saved all their life and own a (nice) property will have to pay their own exhorbitant care fees whereas those who pissed their money away will of course be entitled to free care.
Mum moved into a care home last July and we got a bit behind with the fees but thankfully managed to sell her retirement flat in May, although thanks to Covid we haven't been able to visit her since March.
Anyway that's partly why when I saw a Z4M Coupe up for sale at a good price just before Christmas I jumped in and bought it as I have fancied one for a while after having the 3 litre Coupe for over 5 years. And prices seem to have increased for both in recent months.
Maybe as people aren't spending on foreign holidays they are treating themselves to a car instead?
Interesting that as the number of cash strapped local authorities increases and are reducing funding they are also probing increasingly into claimants financial affairs and if you appear to have deliberately disposed of or transferred assets to reduce capital with a view to avoiding/reducing care costs they have every right to charge you the full fees.
Thankfully most local authority money folk within their finance departments are unsurprisingly hardly world class forensic accountant material lol so the system can be relatively easily bypassed. Allegedly.
:Justin Case said:
Do buyers of secondhand cars look round for an ew one as soon as the payments for the old one have finished, in the same way that most new car buyers do? If so, then sales will continue to be buoyant even after the initial surge, although at a lower rate because sadly some will have lost their jobs and have difficulty in getting a new one.
It is only the sheddists who get another car because the old one is worn out, among the people I know it is more age of car than anything else, and cars are still ageing at the same rate, even if the mileage is increasing more gradually. I actually predict that the net effect on prices will be minimal, so we can all go home now
I think theres a large element of people who keep their used cars for a set period, whether that be a number of years or over a finance term and will likely want to continue that if possible, so yes, i think its very possible the bulk of people will continue as is.It is only the sheddists who get another car because the old one is worn out, among the people I know it is more age of car than anything else, and cars are still ageing at the same rate, even if the mileage is increasing more gradually. I actually predict that the net effect on prices will be minimal, so we can all go home now
I read an article on the BBC site about the upcoming recession and of the last recession they commented...
BBC News said:
"the pain of a recession is typically not felt equally across society, and inequality can increase.
For instance, many people in the UK who owned houses with mortgages and kept their jobs during the last recession did OK. The Bank of England cut interest rates to support the economy, which reduced mortgage interest payments for many considerably, leaving them with more money to spend.
Others, such as benefit recipients or public sector workers, did less well."
So typically those in a private sector job, with a mortgage are likely to do OK during it. For instance, many people in the UK who owned houses with mortgages and kept their jobs during the last recession did OK. The Bank of England cut interest rates to support the economy, which reduced mortgage interest payments for many considerably, leaving them with more money to spend.
Others, such as benefit recipients or public sector workers, did less well."
I think those, and any others unaffected will continue life quite close to normal
Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 17th July 23:06
Deep Thought said:
Justin Case said:
Do buyers of secondhand cars look round for an ew one as soon as the payments for the old one have finished, in the same way that most new car buyers do? If so, then sales will continue to be buoyant even after the initial surge, although at a lower rate because sadly some will have lost their jobs and have difficulty in getting a new one.
It is only the sheddists who get another car because the old one is worn out, among the people I know it is more age of car than anything else, and cars are still ageing at the same rate, even if the mileage is increasing more gradually. I actually predict that the net effect on prices will be minimal, so we can all go home now
I think theres a large element of people who keep their used cars for a set period, whether that be a number of years or over a finance term and will likely want to continue that if possible, so yes, i think its very possible the bulk of people will continue as is.It is only the sheddists who get another car because the old one is worn out, among the people I know it is more age of car than anything else, and cars are still ageing at the same rate, even if the mileage is increasing more gradually. I actually predict that the net effect on prices will be minimal, so we can all go home now
I read an article on the BBC site about the upcoming recession and of the last recession they commented...
BBC News said:
"the pain of a recession is typically not felt equally across society, and inequality can increase.
For instance, many people in the UK who owned houses with mortgages and kept their jobs during the last recession did OK. The Bank of England cut interest rates to support the economy, which reduced mortgage interest payments for many considerably, leaving them with more money to spend.
Others, such as benefit recipients or public sector workers, did less well."
So typically those in a private sector job, with a mortgage are likely to do OK during it. For instance, many people in the UK who owned houses with mortgages and kept their jobs during the last recession did OK. The Bank of England cut interest rates to support the economy, which reduced mortgage interest payments for many considerably, leaving them with more money to spend.
Others, such as benefit recipients or public sector workers, did less well."
I think those, and any others unaffected will continue life quite close to normal
Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 17th July 23:06
So that’s a nearly double amount of people being affected this time round that sadly won’t be carrying on as normal (buying cars).
Dwh8611 said:
Deep Thought said:
Justin Case said:
Do buyers of secondhand cars look round for an ew one as soon as the payments for the old one have finished, in the same way that most new car buyers do? If so, then sales will continue to be buoyant even after the initial surge, although at a lower rate because sadly some will have lost their jobs and have difficulty in getting a new one.
It is only the sheddists who get another car because the old one is worn out, among the people I know it is more age of car than anything else, and cars are still ageing at the same rate, even if the mileage is increasing more gradually. I actually predict that the net effect on prices will be minimal, so we can all go home now
I think theres a large element of people who keep their used cars for a set period, whether that be a number of years or over a finance term and will likely want to continue that if possible, so yes, i think its very possible the bulk of people will continue as is.It is only the sheddists who get another car because the old one is worn out, among the people I know it is more age of car than anything else, and cars are still ageing at the same rate, even if the mileage is increasing more gradually. I actually predict that the net effect on prices will be minimal, so we can all go home now
I read an article on the BBC site about the upcoming recession and of the last recession they commented...
BBC News said:
"the pain of a recession is typically not felt equally across society, and inequality can increase.
For instance, many people in the UK who owned houses with mortgages and kept their jobs during the last recession did OK. The Bank of England cut interest rates to support the economy, which reduced mortgage interest payments for many considerably, leaving them with more money to spend.
Others, such as benefit recipients or public sector workers, did less well."
So typically those in a private sector job, with a mortgage are likely to do OK during it. For instance, many people in the UK who owned houses with mortgages and kept their jobs during the last recession did OK. The Bank of England cut interest rates to support the economy, which reduced mortgage interest payments for many considerably, leaving them with more money to spend.
Others, such as benefit recipients or public sector workers, did less well."
I think those, and any others unaffected will continue life quite close to normal
Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 17th July 23:06
So that’s a nearly double amount of people being affected this time round that sadly won’t be carrying on as normal (buying cars).
Here in Finland new car sales were down 53% in May,
24% in June compared to last year.
However used car sales have increased 21% and dealers in Finland are importing used cars from Sweden where the weak Krona has made them cheaper than the saturated German market which has the Euro.
Add into this that dispite government targets to use less cars and be carbon neutral by 2035 the number of cars are growing faster than the population, 170k cars were imported compared to a population decrease of 120k over the past decade.
The Covid crisis has supercharged this, domestic tourism is up, people want larger spacious cars instead of smaller ones new cars. Many are working remotely at their summer house in the countryside only going into the city/work by car to avoid public transport.
24% in June compared to last year.
However used car sales have increased 21% and dealers in Finland are importing used cars from Sweden where the weak Krona has made them cheaper than the saturated German market which has the Euro.
Add into this that dispite government targets to use less cars and be carbon neutral by 2035 the number of cars are growing faster than the population, 170k cars were imported compared to a population decrease of 120k over the past decade.
The Covid crisis has supercharged this, domestic tourism is up, people want larger spacious cars instead of smaller ones new cars. Many are working remotely at their summer house in the countryside only going into the city/work by car to avoid public transport.
Not really sure what the overall effect will be on used prices. Would have thought that they would drop slightly when the fear over job losses and negative economic news peaks. New sales would take an even bigger hit. The unemployment figures are forecast to be worse than the last recession, as is the hit to GDP. This also doesn't take into account reduction in working hours, overtime reductions, salary cuts, bonus cuts, etc.
I don't want anyone to lose their jobs, and I'd hope no-one else does either. But there also needs to be an acceptance of the situation we're going to be facing, and that asset/commodity prices are likely to suffer, as they tend to in all recessions. There's likely to be a similar effect in the housing market eventually, despite the recent stamp duty announcement. No government has managed to stave off recessions so far, despite the various tax cutting and spending measures that have been tried.
I don't want anyone to lose their jobs, and I'd hope no-one else does either. But there also needs to be an acceptance of the situation we're going to be facing, and that asset/commodity prices are likely to suffer, as they tend to in all recessions. There's likely to be a similar effect in the housing market eventually, despite the recent stamp duty announcement. No government has managed to stave off recessions so far, despite the various tax cutting and spending measures that have been tried.
Dwh8611 said:
Agree that for some life will carry on as normal but unfortunately this recession is forecast to be a lot worse than the last one. Unemployment rate predicted to be nearly 15% compared to 7.6% in 2009.
So that’s a nearly double amount of people being affected this time round that sadly won’t be carrying on as normal (buying cars).
Yes, though in fairness they were talking about recessions generally and what tended to / was expected to happen, not specifically the last one - i was coming back this morning to edit that.So that’s a nearly double amount of people being affected this time round that sadly won’t be carrying on as normal (buying cars).
BUT yes, its likely to affect more people through redundancy but with 85% of economically active (by definition of the unemployment rate) people still working i think the pool of relatively unaffected households will still be large.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 10:11
Deep Thought said:
Dwh8611 said:
Agree that for some life will carry on as normal but unfortunately this recession is forecast to be a lot worse than the last one. Unemployment rate predicted to be nearly 15% compared to 7.6% in 2009.
So that’s a nearly double amount of people being affected this time round that sadly won’t be carrying on as normal (buying cars).
Yes, though in fairness they were talking about recessions generally and what tended to / was expected to happen, not specifically the last one - i was coming back this morning to edit that.So that’s a nearly double amount of people being affected this time round that sadly won’t be carrying on as normal (buying cars).
BUT yes, its likely to affect more people through redundancy but with 85% of economically active (by definition of the unemployment rate) people still working i think the pool of relatively unaffected households will still be large.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 10:11
Dwh8611 said:
The BBC article was talking about the last recession but yes also in general. More people will remember the last one so the point I was making really was this one is forecast to be nearly twice as bad. So for many that cruised through the last one may struggle this time. Hopefully things are not as bad as they forecast
Agreed. Fingers crossed, for everyones sake. Dwh8611 said:
The BBC article was talking about the last recession but yes also in general. More people will remember the last one so the point I was making really was this one is forecast to be nearly twice as bad. So for many that cruised through the last one may struggle this time. Hopefully things are not as bad as they forecast
Also, the historic link to previous recessions is a bit flawed. This will be much bigger and deeper for sure, but has the new dimension of permanent paradigm shifts in societies behaviour. The effects of that will be long term and significant. CV19 brings a unique set of socio-economic issues.As UK Plc turns off the free money taps and the subsequent economic data develops, its slowly starting to permeate through to those sitting in their little comfort bubbles.
On a positive note, one less nearly new Range Rover Sport sitting on an airfield and making its way to me.
In regards the market, played golf with a couple of finance brokers yesterday afternoon, like me this was the first break from work they have had due to the volume of business with no signs of letting up.
One is looking to expand their buying and prep with investment in a new on prep centre along with a couple of new single car transporters. I know the new jobs this create are going to be the loweR end of the pay scale but good news.
In regards the market, played golf with a couple of finance brokers yesterday afternoon, like me this was the first break from work they have had due to the volume of business with no signs of letting up.
One is looking to expand their buying and prep with investment in a new on prep centre along with a couple of new single car transporters. I know the new jobs this create are going to be the loweR end of the pay scale but good news.
Auto810graphy said:
On a positive note, one less nearly new Range Rover Sport sitting on an airfield and making its way to me.
In regards the market, played golf with a couple of finance brokers yesterday afternoon, like me this was the first break from work they have had due to the volume of business with no signs of letting up.
One is looking to expand their buying and prep with investment in a new on prep centre along with a couple of new single car transporters. I know the new jobs this create are going to be the loweR end of the pay scale but good news.
A very very small thing as you say, but all those add up. My wifes company are recruiting now for significant expansion as well as to cover their usual attrition and i think they're looking for 50 heads a month for the forseeable. Thats one site of one company.In regards the market, played golf with a couple of finance brokers yesterday afternoon, like me this was the first break from work they have had due to the volume of business with no signs of letting up.
One is looking to expand their buying and prep with investment in a new on prep centre along with a couple of new single car transporters. I know the new jobs this create are going to be the loweR end of the pay scale but good news.
I see also Ocado are now going to recruit 500 new good paying tech jobs for Ocado Technology (not to be confused with Ocado Retail which is the online grocery function).
All small numbers in the grand scheme of things but all the small numbers start to add up.
Fingers crossed those who do lose their jobs find other work quickly - for many it will be able retraining and / or looking for new jobs outside their comfort zone.
My only concern is we do seem to be switching the balance of remuneration.
I posted earlier in the week about a few people I know are not returning from furlough, these are middle management so minimum £40k per annum roles. A lot of the new jobs created will be closer to half this which might be a problem if this occurs across other industries.
I posted earlier in the week about a few people I know are not returning from furlough, these are middle management so minimum £40k per annum roles. A lot of the new jobs created will be closer to half this which might be a problem if this occurs across other industries.
Auto810graphy said:
My only concern is we do seem to be switching the balance of remuneration.
I posted earlier in the week about a few people I know are not returning from furlough, these are middle management so minimum £40k per annum roles. A lot of the new jobs created will be closer to half this which might be a problem if this occurs across other industries.
Agreed.I posted earlier in the week about a few people I know are not returning from furlough, these are middle management so minimum £40k per annum roles. A lot of the new jobs created will be closer to half this which might be a problem if this occurs across other industries.
I've had to do it in the past and its certainly no fun.
Sometimes you have to take a step back short term - to keep money coming in - to take a step forward long term.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 14:30
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:
OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:
OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
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