Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[Hub]

2012/62 Focus ST estate... doing such minimal mileage as to not make any difference!

Sept 2019: £6,750
20 March 2020: £5,420
24 June: £7,175
14 July: £7,000
26 August £7,285
7 September £7,000
10 October £6,620
23 October £6,500
12 November £6,000
18 December £6,335

[HTP99]

So, do we have a definative answer yet, or do we need to wait another few months!?

[RUSTILLDOWN]

HTP99 said:

So, do we have a definative answer yet, or do we need to wait another few months!?

Someone very clever on this thread said several months ago that people will need to wait until Q2 next year before prices reduce.

[The Rotrex Kid]

RUSTILLDOWN said:

HTP99 said:

So, do we have a definative answer yet, or do we need to wait another few months!?

Someone very clever on this thread said several months ago that people will need to wait until Q2 next year before prices reduce.

Lots of other people said March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November.

[SidewaysSi]

The Rotrex Kid said:

RUSTILLDOWN said:

HTP99 said:

So, do we have a definative answer yet, or do we need to wait another few months!?

Someone very clever on this thread said several months ago that people will need to wait until Q2 next year before prices reduce.

Lots of other people said March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November.

I am incredibly clever and they will go down on February 24th.

[HTP99]

The Rotrex Kid said:

RUSTILLDOWN said:

HTP99 said:

So, do we have a definative answer yet, or do we need to wait another few months!?

Someone very clever on this thread said several months ago that people will need to wait until Q2 next year before prices reduce.

Lots of other people said March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November.

Definitely December, at a push January......or maybe February into March..................., possibly August....maybe or perhaps!

[Anonymous-poster]

Furlough been extended to end of April so that should keep things stable Ito Q2.

[Justin Case]

Probably before February 29th

[spikeyhead]

Bagsy May 17th

[Backtobasics]

I'm just confused by the whole situation now, I fully expected times to be tougher. Just reading a few articles today (obviously take with usual salt), National debt is equivalent to our GDP. 23% of the populous now in "poverty", 8.3m over indebted so are really susceptible to economic shock, food bank users rising rapidly.

But higher income households paying back debt at a massive rate (no travel, lunches out at work etc I expect). so when will used car prices drop who knows!

[RUSTILLDOWN]

Backtobasics said:

I'm just confused by the whole situation now, I fully expected times to be tougher. Just reading a few articles today (obviously take with usual salt), National debt is equivalent to our GDP. 23% of the populous now in "poverty", 8.3m over indebted so are really susceptible to economic shock, food bank users rising rapidly.

But higher income households paying back debt at a massive rate (no travel, lunches out at work etc I expect). so when will used car prices drop who knows!

I didn’t know that furlough has been extended yet again (mentioned above) but that’s what’s propping up most industries. That’s a good thing but obviously every tax payer gets the bill eventually, soooooo difficult.

At this rate the biggest recession ever won’t hit people until Q3 next year, and it will always take 6 months until used car prices are reduced

[jonwm]

Here a strange one.

Just because I saw this thread I put my 54 plate mini cooper s into it, I'm sure it was £380 in the summer when I did it, just had a price back of £1,890, I only paid £2k for it on ebay

No way they want a 15 year old 90k Mini, very strange.

[Richard-D]

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

[eliot]

Richard-D said:

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

Indeed - but a few of us have tracked that nominal offer over 6 months and it gives you and indication of market sentiment.

It seems like many people are getting rid of their eco stbox dailys and purchasing toys to mess about in.

I’ve worked from home for over 8 years - so enjoyed buying all the big petrol V8 iron that nobody wanted for cheap - now that stuff is in demand because everyone is at home doing minimal mileage.

[Fusion777]

From my experience traffic levels seem to be quite substantial. Not as busy as pre-covid, but there are decent numbers commuting. Can only think of one person at my place working from home all the time.

[Deep Thought]

Richard-D said:

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

As has been said, its the rising and falling variance that is of interest.

Yes, we all know they try to "chip you back" when they get you there - thats their modus operandi - but their offers have been an indicator of whats happing out there in the market.

[PistonAFC]

Deep Thought said:

As has been said, its the rising and falling variance that is of interest.

Yes, we all know they try to "chip you back" when they get you there - thats their modus operandi - but their offers have been an indicator of whats happing out there in the market.

It would be good for someone to post CAP prices compared WBAC to see how they line up. If WBAC are wildly above CAP trade then I guess it would mean that they are trying to lure people in and then chip them down when they get there and somewhat vulnerable/distressed sellers.

[Richard-D]

Deep Thought said:

Richard-D said:

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

As has been said, its the rising and falling variance that is of interest.

Yes, we all know they try to "chip you back" when they get you there - thats their modus operandi - but their offers have been an indicator of whats happing out there in the market.

My fault as I should have been clearer. I don't believe that the rise and fall of their prices has anything to do with the current market either. It initially goes up as they're trying to get you to come in. The initial offer didn't achieve that so the offer creeps up. It then goes down to try to worry people that the price is in decline and that they 'need to' sell now.

I bet that if you start a 'sale' from a different account for a similar car (but offset the start of the process a month or so) you will end up with one going down in 'value' as the other is going up.

People are talking about it as a valuation. It's nothing of the sort. It's simply an offer. The fluctuations in the offer are based upon how they believe they can get you to accept the minimum for the car, not it's value.

Edited by Richard-D on Sunday 20th December 01:22

[Mr Tidy]

I have no idea!

I sold my manual BMW Z4 Sport Coupe on 91K miles in February once I dropped the price to £6,600, and felt relieved I had shifted it before lockdown.

But as soon as lockdown ended prices went crazy, and still are going by this:- https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?postcode=g...

If you want a car and can afford it just buy it - YOLO. Sadly residual values may be irrelevant.

[swisstoni]

Richard-D said:

Deep Thought said:

Richard-D said:

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

As has been said, its the rising and falling variance that is of interest.

Yes, we all know they try to "chip you back" when they get you there - thats their modus operandi - but their offers have been an indicator of whats happing out there in the market.

My fault as I should have been clearer. I don't believe that the rise and fall of their prices has anything to do with the current market either. It initially goes up as they're trying to get you to come in. The initial offer didn't achieve that so the offer creeps up. It then goes down to try to worry people that the price is in decline and that they 'need to' sell now.

I bet that if you start a 'sale' from a different account for a similar car (but offset the start of the process a month or so) you will end up with one going down in 'value' as the other is going up.

People are talking about it as a valuation. It's nothing of the sort. It's simply an offer. The fluctuations in the offer are based upon how they believe they can get you to accept the minimum for the car, not it's value.

Edited by Richard-D on Sunday 20th December 01:22

That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.