Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[johnnyBv8]

Richard-D said:

Deep Thought said:

Richard-D said:

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

As has been said, its the rising and falling variance that is of interest.

Yes, we all know they try to "chip you back" when they get you there - thats their modus operandi - but their offers have been an indicator of whats happing out there in the market.

My fault as I should have been clearer. I don't believe that the rise and fall of their prices has anything to do with the current market either. It initially goes up as they're trying to get you to come in. The initial offer didn't achieve that so the offer creeps up. It then goes down to try to worry people that the price is in decline and that they 'need to' sell now.

I bet that if you start a 'sale' from a different account for a similar car (but offset the start of the process a month or so) you will end up with one going down in 'value' as the other is going up.

People are talking about it as a valuation. It's nothing of the sort. It's simply an offer. The fluctuations in the offer are based upon how they believe they can get you to accept the minimum for the car, not it's value.

WBAC offers are a good reflection of the market - their offers are closely correlated with CAP. All they do is put the cars through BCA (both under the same ownership). I don't know if there is algorithm 'tweaking' to try and encourage a sale, but broadly it's just an offer in line with the market.

[jimPH]

As a person who has been monitoring the market for a basket of hot hatches, the prices above pretty much reflect my own results, of which I posted graphs previously.

[The Rotrex Kid]

I was looking at a C63 in May (2010, 85k with performance pack) top book was £11400 then, I declined to buy at £12750.

Top trade book is now £12600. Ho hum, never mind.

[Deep Thought]

Richard-D said:

My fault as I should have been clearer. I don't believe that the rise and fall of their prices has anything to do with the current market either. It initially goes up as they're trying to get you to come in. The initial offer didn't achieve that so the offer creeps up. It then goes down to try to worry people that the price is in decline and that they 'need to' sell now.

I bet that if you start a 'sale' from a different account for a similar car (but offset the start of the process a month or so) you will end up with one going down in 'value' as the other is going up.

People are talking about it as a valuation. It's nothing of the sort. It's simply an offer. The fluctuations in the offer are based upon how they believe they can get you to accept the minimum for the car, not it's value.

Edited by Richard-D on Sunday 20th December 01:22

This has been covered before. WBAC value cars based on estimated auction price minus their costs minus their profit margin.

Sometimes the value goes up based on what they're being fed back from auction, so sometimes you get an email to say the value has increased. Most of the time you dont.

The prices i have posted are reflective of what was happening at troughs and peaks in the market (as fed back by the motor trade on here RE: buying cars and how quickly they were selling) - a trough in March, a peak in June, July, Aug, Sept and then dropping back.

There is no active attempt to "see what you might take" for the car

And RE: your proving your view with another account - i just tried it. I plugged in our car again, as i have many times before with my details so they're well aware of it historically. Price came back at £21,340. I then cleared my browsing history, cookies, connected via a VPN, entered the car details manually, gave bogus contact details and the price came back at.... £21,340.

[Deep Thought]

johnnyBv8 said:

Richard-D said:

Deep Thought said:

Richard-D said:

I'm not convinced that WBAC automated 'offers' are a good indicator of used car prices. Realistically they're little more than attempts to get you to one of their agents.

As has been said, its the rising and falling variance that is of interest.

Yes, we all know they try to "chip you back" when they get you there - thats their modus operandi - but their offers have been an indicator of whats happing out there in the market.

My fault as I should have been clearer. I don't believe that the rise and fall of their prices has anything to do with the current market either. It initially goes up as they're trying to get you to come in. The initial offer didn't achieve that so the offer creeps up. It then goes down to try to worry people that the price is in decline and that they 'need to' sell now.

I bet that if you start a 'sale' from a different account for a similar car (but offset the start of the process a month or so) you will end up with one going down in 'value' as the other is going up.

People are talking about it as a valuation. It's nothing of the sort. It's simply an offer. The fluctuations in the offer are based upon how they believe they can get you to accept the minimum for the car, not it's value.

WBAC offers are a good reflection of the market - their offers are closely correlated with CAP. All they do is put the cars through BCA (both under the same ownership). I don't know if there is algorithm 'tweaking' to try and encourage a sale, but broadly it's just an offer in line with the market.

Exactly it.

[Deep Thought]

swisstoni said:

That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.

Sorry, but it makes no sense at all. Their algorithm is based on predicted auction price, not what they "hope you might take for it".

[gizlaroc]

Richard-D said:

My fault as I should have been clearer. I don't believe that the rise and fall of their prices has anything to do with the current market either. It initially goes up as they're trying to get you to come in. The initial offer didn't achieve that so the offer creeps up. It then goes down to try to worry people that the price is in decline and that they 'need to' sell now.

I bet that if you start a 'sale' from a different account for a similar car (but offset the start of the process a month or so) you will end up with one going down in 'value' as the other is going up.

People are talking about it as a valuation. It's nothing of the sort. It's simply an offer. The fluctuations in the offer are based upon how they believe they can get you to accept the minimum for the car, not it's value.

It is a valuation. If the car needs 'nothing' doing to it they will pay you what they offered you. If there are things that will need sorting to retail it they will ask you to do them and come back or tell you what they charge to do them.*

Their prices are updated after every auction based on what similar cars went through at. It is one of the most up to date price indicators out there.

• Now of course they don't do the work, but they know auction buyers will be knocking that cost off their maximum bid.

[Supercell]

Sold my Suzuki Swift Sport back in August, and took advantage of the price rises to make a good profit. Kept looking for a new(to me) car, got bored of waiting, and so found what I liked a couple weeks ago and it should be delivered tomorrow. Who knows If i've got a bargain or not but I was bored of waiting

[matt21]

I’m tracking my 2017 BMW M6 with WBAC. Been creeping up for weeks. I did pop along and they confirmed they would give me exactly the same price as they quoted me as there is nothing to knock it down. I am confident If the price changes up or down this will still be the case

[RUSTILLDOWN]

Supercell said:

Sold my Suzuki Swift Sport back in August, and took advantage of the price rises to make a good profit. Kept looking for a new(to me) car, got bored of waiting, and so found what I liked a couple weeks ago and it should be delivered tomorrow. Who knows If i've got a bargain or not but I was bored of waiting

What did you go for? And have you used the invisibility spell yet?

[Newton472]

Good news: it appears some of the worst finance scams are finally being legislated against.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs...

[HTP99]

Newton472 said:

Good news: it appears some of the worst finance scams are finally being legislated against.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs...

It's behind a pay wall.

[The Rotrex Kid]

HTP99 said:

Newton472 said:

Good news: it appears some of the worst finance scams are finally being legislated against.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs...

It's behind a pay wall.

I’d imagine it’s just the FCA stuff about dealers not setting interest rates

[HTP99]

The Rotrex Kid said:

HTP99 said:

Newton472 said:

Good news: it appears some of the worst finance scams are finally being legislated against.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs...

It's behind a pay wall.

I’d imagine it’s just the FCA stuff about dealers not setting interest rates

If so then nothing new then!

[loskie]

It's not a scam though is it? It's customer's greed, vanity and stupidity.

[swisstoni]

Deep Thought said:

swisstoni said:

That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.

Sorry, but it makes no sense at all. Their algorithm is based on predicted auction price, not what they "hope you might take for it".

You don’t think there might be some psychology going on AFTER the initial quote? Make the next offer a little bit lower to make the punter think that prices are turning down?
I wouldn’t put it past them at all.

[Richard-D]

swisstoni said:

Deep Thought said:

swisstoni said:

That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.

Sorry, but it makes no sense at all. Their algorithm is based on predicted auction price, not what they "hope you might take for it".

You don’t think there might be some psychology going on AFTER the initial quote? Make the next offer a little bit lower to make the punter think that prices are turning down?
I wouldn’t put it past them at all.

.

I'm genuinely surprised that some people are unable to see the difference between a valuation and an offer. Just acknowledging that the party giving you the figure is looking to make a profit should be enough to prove this.

To clarify I don't hold anything against WBAC for doing this. You are not obliged to accept their offer. Very strange for others to pretend it's anything other than that though.

Edited by Richard-D on Sunday 20th December 15:04

[Deep Thought]

swisstoni said:

Deep Thought said:

swisstoni said:

That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.

Sorry, but it makes no sense at all. Their algorithm is based on predicted auction price, not what they "hope you might take for it".

You don’t think there might be some psychology going on AFTER the initial quote? Make the next offer a little bit lower to make the punter think that prices are turning down?
I wouldn’t put it past them at all.

I dont think they are that concerned. I'm sure they get tens of thousands of valuations per day. How much are they going to have to vary it to make someone change their mind? £100? £200? That could be their net profit margin.

If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.

In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.

[Deep Thought]

Richard-D said:

I'm genuinely surprised that some people are unable to see the difference between a valuation and an offer. Just acknowledging that the party giving you the figure is looking to make a profit should be enough to prove this.

To clarify I don't hold anything against WBAC for doing this. You are not obliged to accept their offer. Very strange for others to pretend it's anything other than that though.

Edited by Richard-D on Sunday 20th December 15:04

WBAC describe it as a valuation not an offer.

Its a valuation in that if you have described your car accurately, they will give you that for it.

Many traders will use it as a reference point when they are valuing a car.

[johnnyBv8]

Richard-D said:

swisstoni said:

Deep Thought said:

swisstoni said:

That makes a fair bit of sense. We imagine there is some WBAC intelligence department rivalling GCHQ. But in reality the truth is probably our old friend the algorithm.

I suppose there is still some human nudging of the price movements based on major events; they weren’t quoting at all for a while.

Sorry, but it makes no sense at all. Their algorithm is based on predicted auction price, not what they "hope you might take for it".

You don’t think there might be some psychology going on AFTER the initial quote? Make the next offer a little bit lower to make the punter think that prices are turning down?
I wouldn’t put it past them at all.

.

I'm genuinely surprised that some people are unable to see the difference between a valuation and an offer. Just acknowledging that the party giving you the figure is looking to make a profit should be enough to prove this.

To clarify I don't hold anything against WBAC for doing this. You are not obliged to accept their offer. Very strange for others to pretend it's anything other than that though.

You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.

WBAC assigns a sum to the car (using 'sum' terminology so as not to send the discussion down a blind alley again!), which is based generally on their ability to sell it at BCA and the price they expect to achieve. Whether it's an initial valuation or an offer is irrelevant; the trends of the assigned sum, obtained in the same way each month, are a fairly consistent proxy of the used car market, hence its discussion on the forum.