Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
Yeah I think all the doom mongering is utterly pointless.
We all know people like this though, they’ll predict the absolute worst no matter what and in any situation all under the masquerade of ‘realism’. When it’s quite obvious that it’s really for the simple reason that in the unlikely event that they do turn out to be right and everything turns to a huge steaming pile of s
t then they get the smug satisfaction of saying to themselves and to everybody else ‘told you so’.
We all know people like this though, they’ll predict the absolute worst no matter what and in any situation all under the masquerade of ‘realism’. When it’s quite obvious that it’s really for the simple reason that in the unlikely event that they do turn out to be right and everything turns to a huge steaming pile of s
t then they get the smug satisfaction of saying to themselves and to everybody else ‘told you so’.milfordkong said:
Yeah I think all the doom mongering is utterly pointless.
We all know people like this though, they’ll predict the absolute worst no matter what and in any situation all under the masquerade of ‘realism’. When it’s quite obvious that it’s really for the simple reason that in the unlikely event that they do turn out to be right and everything turns to a huge steaming pile of st then they get the smug satisfaction of saying to themselves and to everybody else ‘told you so’.
And even when we see recovery at the other end, they'll continue to sift through to find news articles to support their newfound double dip theory or that its not really a recovery. Saw it back after the 2008/9 property crash. There was no convincing a minority even some years down the line that we were in a recovery. I remember an another forum a couple of people refused to believe that house prices had bottomed out and were rising. I think it cost them £50,000-100,000 because they waited that long and prices had risen that much. But still, they got to wallow in their "glass half empty" world when the rest of us just got on with it.We all know people like this though, they’ll predict the absolute worst no matter what and in any situation all under the masquerade of ‘realism’. When it’s quite obvious that it’s really for the simple reason that in the unlikely event that they do turn out to be right and everything turns to a huge steaming pile of s
t then they get the smug satisfaction of saying to themselves and to everybody else ‘told you so’.More than a quarter of all workers are now on state-funded furlough as companies scramble to sign up for support ahead of a deadline next week, highlighting the scale of the battle ahead to restart Britain's economy.
A total of 8.7m workers across 1.1m firms are using the job retention scheme according to HMRC - at a cost to taxpayers of £17.5bn and counting.
A net 300,000 workers were furloughed last week alone as companies rushing to access the wage subsidy outpaced those bringing staff back to work as Britain gradually opens back up.
I wonder if this will have an effect on used car prices? Does being furloughed result in different consumer behaviour? I wonder what happens when all the pent up demand is satisfied. Not sure I would be holding a lot of inventory going into winter 2020.
A total of 8.7m workers across 1.1m firms are using the job retention scheme according to HMRC - at a cost to taxpayers of £17.5bn and counting.
A net 300,000 workers were furloughed last week alone as companies rushing to access the wage subsidy outpaced those bringing staff back to work as Britain gradually opens back up.
I wonder if this will have an effect on used car prices? Does being furloughed result in different consumer behaviour? I wonder what happens when all the pent up demand is satisfied. Not sure I would be holding a lot of inventory going into winter 2020.
tinyboytim said:
I wonder if this will have an effect on used car prices? Does being furloughed result in different consumer behaviour? I wonder what happens when all the pent up demand is satisfied. Not sure I would be holding a lot of inventory going into winter 2020.
Yes sure it's likely to be tougher for the trade at some point. They will still make similar % profit (or perhaps more) out of lower priced cars once prices have stabilised but how much smaller will the market be, no one knows. mike74 said:
Plenty of idiots still lapping up there lives of leisure on furlough sat in their Argos inflatable hot tubs enjoying their beers and BBQ's... all blissfully unaware that their jobs no longer exist.
Well, arent you a joy,What are furloughed people meant to do, sit in their kitchen with their head in their hands worrying about the future they cant do a great deal about ?
So, some folk get an unexpected holiday, but have probably worked years and years with 20 days a year off.
And, all tempered with the fact that they may catch a nasty virus and drop dead, unlikely but possible.
May as well make the best of it where possible/within guidelines.
nickfrog said:
growlerowl said:
Or are you just trying to shut down people speaking the inconvenient truth?
(...)
It's called being realistic.
The problem with claiming to know the truth and the reality compared to someone like me who doesn't is that only one of us can be wrong. And by definition, it's not me. (...)
It's called being realistic.
J4CKO said:
Well, arent you a joy,
What are furloughed people meant to do, sit in their kitchen with their head in their hands worrying about the future they cant do a great deal about ?
So, some folk get an unexpected holiday, but have probably worked years and years with 20 days a year off.
And, all tempered with the fact that they may catch a nasty virus and drop dead, unlikely but possible.
May as well make the best of it where possible/within guidelines.
Surely that is life? Up's and down's and all that? I am sure we all get as much leisure time as we need, but with our political master's love of globalisation, we all have to work as hard as the next person. Maybe that is why Nissan choose Sunderland over Barcelona - because the people work hard.What are furloughed people meant to do, sit in their kitchen with their head in their hands worrying about the future they cant do a great deal about ?
So, some folk get an unexpected holiday, but have probably worked years and years with 20 days a year off.
And, all tempered with the fact that they may catch a nasty virus and drop dead, unlikely but possible.
May as well make the best of it where possible/within guidelines.
And I do tend to agree that a lot of people have been taking the mickey when it comes to this furlough. The UK has been one big holiday camp for the best part of 2 months. Someone has to pay the bills, whether personal debt and now a massive government borrowing binge. Great it looks like taxes will be heading higher at some point.
And coming back to the topic in hand, used car prices will have to adjust to whatever affordability the UK consumer has left. Of course that will vary, but I imagine the industry will have to adapt. More online sales models could be one outcome, perhaps, lower expenses. Maybe car dealers will have to actually answer an email or 2.
nickfrog said:
Quite frankly I am far more concerned about FTSE overheating/overrevving over the past month than by the car market or used car values.
Why are you concerned? If you have stocks, sell them. The disconnect between 'wall st' and 'main st' has never been greater it seems. If the stockmarkets crash again then sure that will reduce the wealth effect, but the central banks largesse seems to have taken care of that. Surely an overvalued FTSE will lead to higher used car values?Throttlebody said:
The real sharp operators look and read the market direction, plan and forecast ahead. They are realists that see risk. The less capable tend to rely on historic data, avoid taking a position on the future, prefer to remain comfortable, like to use hindsight and take no risk.
Well, you're truly in the st then. tinyboytim said:
I wonder if this will have an effect on used car prices? Does being furloughed result in different consumer behaviour? I wonder what happens when all the pent up demand is satisfied. Not sure I would be holding a lot of inventory going into winter 2020.
Yes it does undoubtedly. And not just cars. Everything is affected. Apparently M&S, Next etc are struggling to predict demand for clothing over the summer - what will peoples requirements be if they are furloughed or WFH? How do you predict the volume of that required?Cars - yes. I think the bulk of people on furlough wont need to change their cars. I think people WFH will have new requirements or will consider keeping their current cars longer.
Subsequently - therein likes the problem. Who can predict what it might look like? We might see a reasonable volume of transactions, but it might be people changing down or "rightsizing" their car choices. For example, Audi Q5 and Freelander type market - how many people "need" those and the extra cost? If i think a particular market is going to be hit its going to be those. Other car types may go up, others down. We might see people buy older cars, we might see a wholesale move away from a car being something "important" in peoples lives.
Very interesting to watch what happens.
Throttlebody said:
The real sharp operators look and read the market direction, plan and forecast ahead. They are realists that see risk. The less capable tend to rely on historic data, avoid taking a position on the future, prefer to remain comfortable, like to use hindsight and take no risk.
The difficulty currently is - noone knows. Big retailers have no idea how this will all look in the new normal. Factor in also that its an evolving situation too. Take say, a chocolate manufacturer - you probably every other year would be preparing to ramp up for your christmas offering of selection boxes, chocolates, etc - all those raw ingredient orders will need committed to. How do you plan for that this year? What if we're not allowed to visit each others homes then? What if we ARE and you planned otherwise based on data today?
Edited by Deep Thought on Wednesday 3rd June 10:45
tinyboytim said:
Surely that is life? Up's and down's and all that? I am sure we all get as much leisure time as we need, but with our political master's love of globalisation, we all have to work as hard as the next person. Maybe that is why Nissan choose Sunderland over Barcelona - because the people work hard.
And I do tend to agree that a lot of people have been taking the mickey when it comes to this furlough. The UK has been one big holiday camp for the best part of 2 months. Someone has to pay the bills, whether personal debt and now a massive government borrowing binge. Great it looks like taxes will be heading higher at some point.
And coming back to the topic in hand, used car prices will have to adjust to whatever affordability the UK consumer has left. Of course that will vary, but I imagine the industry will have to adapt. More online sales models could be one outcome, perhaps, lower expenses. Maybe car dealers will have to actually answer an email or 2.
But that misses the point, surely? Is it wrong that people are enjoying their unexpected time off and finding ways to relax and enjoy themselves, or should we expect them to be sitting in dark rooms in tears?And I do tend to agree that a lot of people have been taking the mickey when it comes to this furlough. The UK has been one big holiday camp for the best part of 2 months. Someone has to pay the bills, whether personal debt and now a massive government borrowing binge. Great it looks like taxes will be heading higher at some point.
And coming back to the topic in hand, used car prices will have to adjust to whatever affordability the UK consumer has left. Of course that will vary, but I imagine the industry will have to adapt. More online sales models could be one outcome, perhaps, lower expenses. Maybe car dealers will have to actually answer an email or 2.
Wheres the harm in a cheap hot tub and the odd BBQ?
Yes, the piper will have to be paid down the line in terms of taxation changes, but why shouldnt people enjoy the downtime now? They'd otherwise be off to Spain for a fortnight which they cant do and they're spending the money locally which is a good thing.
I'd love some more enthusiast friendly car pricing to maybe get into another Porsche. However, I increasingly fear that this crisis and recession makes the rich richer and the poor poorer in such a way that there will be little impact on the prices of any higher value goods whether cars or houses.
Savings rates have been increasingly dramatically as both higher paid employees, crisis proofed business owners and retirees have had far fewer avenues to spend their money. Restaurants, theatres, cafes, clothes shops, department stores, car dealers, estate agents etc have all been closed. Interest rates at banks are hovering around zero, stock markets are volatile and remain highly risky. As soon as the opportunities to "invest" open up, I think a lot of wealthy people will take them. Furthermore, investing in physical, tangible, income generating (housing) or portable (collectible cars) assets protects investors from further GBP devaluations as a 'bury any bad news during Covid' no-deal Brexit plays out too...
Savings rates have been increasingly dramatically as both higher paid employees, crisis proofed business owners and retirees have had far fewer avenues to spend their money. Restaurants, theatres, cafes, clothes shops, department stores, car dealers, estate agents etc have all been closed. Interest rates at banks are hovering around zero, stock markets are volatile and remain highly risky. As soon as the opportunities to "invest" open up, I think a lot of wealthy people will take them. Furthermore, investing in physical, tangible, income generating (housing) or portable (collectible cars) assets protects investors from further GBP devaluations as a 'bury any bad news during Covid' no-deal Brexit plays out too...
Salmonofdoubt said:
What I find most interesting about those figures is regardless of Covid the demand for purely IC vehicles appears to have fallen off a cliff. Which must leave some manufacturers staring into a potential black hole if they have small Hybrid or EV ranges and lots of built or part built IC vehicles in storage.
UK car industry pushes for scrappage scheme to help buy new petrol and diesel vehicleshttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/03/u...
Don't scrappage schemes just serve to take good serviceable cars off the roads?
Salmonofdoubt said:
UK car industry pushes for scrappage scheme to help buy new petrol and diesel vehicles
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/03/u...
Don't scrappage schemes just serve to take good serviceable cars off the roads?
Yes, and last time it didn't really help the UK car industry as most people ended up getting a Hyundai i10 as it was about £5500 once the £2K scrappage allowance was added in. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/03/u...
Don't scrappage schemes just serve to take good serviceable cars off the roads?
Joey Deacon said:
Salmonofdoubt said:
UK car industry pushes for scrappage scheme to help buy new petrol and diesel vehicles
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/03/u...
Don't scrappage schemes just serve to take good serviceable cars off the roads?
Yes, and last time it didn't really help the UK car industry as most people ended up getting a Hyundai i10 as it was about £5500 once the £2K scrappage allowance was added in. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/03/u...
Don't scrappage schemes just serve to take good serviceable cars off the roads?
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