Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)
Discussion
Joey Deacon said:
I ordered a new car last month and was given an estimated delivery date for the beginning of October. I received an email from the dealer yesterday telling me my car is due to arrive in the UK at the end of June.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
Perhaps found a cancelled one in the system?No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
There’s going to be a lot of dealers holding expensive stock the next six months judging on prices paid for used stock. Sooner or later someone’s going to take the pain.
Those people financing 4+ year old cars over long terms, having paid substantially more than what common sense says, are going to default when the choice comes between paying household bills or a high loan repayment for something that costs £120 to fill with fuel.
The world has gone mental. The warning signs of the coming of the four horsemen was when dealers started phoning previous customers and ask to buy back cars at more than original price. Mental.
Apart from a few low volume special models, cars must be treated as a sharply depreciating asset by the majority of purchasers. Perhaps for a while EVs will buck this trend, but not forever either.
We sold our 6 year old focus for very near what we paid for it 4 years before. Mental for a car with 80k on the clock. Mental.
Those people financing 4+ year old cars over long terms, having paid substantially more than what common sense says, are going to default when the choice comes between paying household bills or a high loan repayment for something that costs £120 to fill with fuel.
The world has gone mental. The warning signs of the coming of the four horsemen was when dealers started phoning previous customers and ask to buy back cars at more than original price. Mental.
Apart from a few low volume special models, cars must be treated as a sharply depreciating asset by the majority of purchasers. Perhaps for a while EVs will buck this trend, but not forever either.
We sold our 6 year old focus for very near what we paid for it 4 years before. Mental for a car with 80k on the clock. Mental.
carparkno1 said:
Joey Deacon said:
I ordered a new car last month and was given an estimated delivery date for the beginning of October. I received an email from the dealer yesterday telling me my car is due to arrive in the UK at the end of June.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
And a sped up delivery also interesting.
Wonder what these twin things could do to use cars
Ordered a brand new Golf R at the same time. He’s now been told its being delivered in august
Superflow said:
Yep.The market is going through it’s denial period now as traders will try and offload overpriced stock and come October (call it the 22nd)the game is up for the mainstream sectors bargains aplenty come the festive season!
I think (but don't know) you'll be rather disappointed.ghost83 said:
Good to know first hand dealer knowledge
I’ve said the same come winter when energy goes up again it’s going to start to hit hard then when energy goes up again in January even harder!
I suspect fleet and motability sales will be the main buyers through q4 2022 and q1 2023 as supply gets chance to pick itself back up, something will defiantly have to give! Manufacturers will need to sell cars to keep their own money flowing otherwise they will have to let their workforces go, so it will be either lowering the price of cars which I doubt or attractive discounts and finance coupled with a scrap page scheme to get people buying again
You seriously think manufacturers are going to start slashing list prices after many have continually raised them over the past 12 months the most recent being up to 30 % merely in one rise alone the other week. I have a few new cars on order at various price points mainstream medium and relatively expensive and expect a minimum of at least two price rises before delivery.
You are conveniently forgetting the sc shortage backlog and componentry supply issues and huge price rises. Margin will continue to dominate over volume across many manufacturers and for obvious reasons. Whilst demand for new cars will tend to reduce clearly due to the economic constraints approaching this really is a non event for manufacturers chasing margin over volume as they will have fewer cars to sell but at higher prices. Their huge profit rises seen recently will continue because of this strategy. Demand will still exceed supply for the most part and many buyers forced away from the new car market will simply buy used instead thus supporting used values.
New car supply will broadly continue to be restricted well into next year.
Edited by av185 on Wednesday 18th May 13:21
Joey Deacon said:
I ordered a new car last month and was given an estimated delivery date for the beginning of October. I received an email from the dealer yesterday telling me my car is due to arrive in the UK at the end of June.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
I work with a number of manufactures and the Tier 1's for delivering & sequencing parts to build cars, JLR are going to 3 shifts again from June, first time in a while that's happened, I was with 3 people from JLR 2 weeks ago and I asked about the chip shortage and they said its not an issue.
They are however pushing all resource to the models that make them more money Defender, Evoque and new RR have high build number projections, Jaguar XE is literally a few a day.
Stellantis on the other hand are dropping Spec for fun off the Peugeot models, I think the 3008 is down to 2 models now and smaller engine choice, standard spec has dropped (Electric tailgate, heated / electric seats & wireless charging plates) but the price has risen.
Order a 5008 now and it will be built Dec/ Jan 23 for delivery Feb / March.
DS have build slots available for June on the new DS4, appreciate is a more niche brand.
Depending on brand it does seem like they can build cars now its just if they choose to or not!
Edited by jonwm on Wednesday 18th May 13:21
HTP99 said:
Joey Deacon said:
I ordered a new car last month and was given an estimated delivery date for the beginning of October. I received an email from the dealer yesterday telling me my car is due to arrive in the UK at the end of June.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
No idea what has happened for it to potentially arrive three months earlier than predicted.
Perhaps found a cancelled one in the system?
Venisonpie said:
I think (but don't know) you'll be rather disappointed.
I just hope for others something will happen which it already is on cars £500 reductions on price while other have sat on autotrader for months which only means the trader cannot sell at said price like I said denial period.
Superflow said:
Not me I’m not in the game.
I just hope for others something will happen which it already is on cars 500 reductions on price while other have sat on autotrader for months which only means the trader cannot sell at said price like I said denial period.
TTmonkey said:
Those people financing 4+ year old cars over long terms, having paid substantially more than what common sense says, are going to default when the choice comes between paying household bills or a high loan repayment for something that costs 120 to fill with fuel.
Will there be many people who've spent their last available penny on a car loan, where their electric bill going up will result in the car having to be sold ?
Venisonpie said:
I guess it depends on their cash situation, if the don't need to blink then they probably won't.
Venisonpie said:
Macron said:
Is 2012 a Euro5 engine?
It will be yes, biggest market for those is likely to be London and diesels up to and including most of 2016 will be Euro5 = non ULEZ compliant.
Superflow said:
As they’ve been on for months it’s more likely they can’t drop them as they’ll be selling at a loss I mean if I went in and looked at a car that’s been up for 2/3 months and wouldn’t move on price I’d just laugh and leave,just sell it and move on.
Big engined out of date stuff I think will tank at some point but otherwise the lack of supply will hold the market away from a crash. Interest rates are still ludicrously low and there's still plenty of cash about, the current inflation is only going to impact some people and not all.
Venisonpie said:
But why? The market may not drop in the way some are suggesting.
Big engined out of date stuff I think will tank at some point but otherwise the lack of supply will hold the market away from a crash. Interest rates are still ludicrously low and there's still plenty of cash about, the current inflation is only going to impact some people and not all.
I know people are ‘buying’ Renaults an Dacia at £200 per month.Interest rates should/could be at 3% by end of 2022 but probably won’t.
Superflow said:
I understand all that however if many cars are not moving and some reductions are already happening what will happen come winter?
I know people are ‘buying’ Renaults an Dacia at 200 per month.Interest rates should/could be at 3% by end of 2022 but probably won’t.
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