Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[Earthdweller]

The spinner of plates said:

In your dreams.

I well remember the Morris Marina asset bubble, as everyone who lived through the 70’s knew well

Get a brown one with a beige vynl roof …. You’ll be a millionaire son, straight off the dole for you !

He’s right, everyone got off the picket line and dole queues and bought Marina’s


I've been driving in my car
It's not quite a Jaguar
I bought it in Primrose Hill
From a bloke from Brazil

It was made in fifty-nine
In a factory by the Tyne
It says Morris on the door
The GPO owned it before

I drive in it for my job
The governor calls me a slob
But I don't really care
Give me some gas and the open air

[av185]

jimPH said:

Meanwhile, back at Ford HQ..

Well that's our supply chain sorted out, we've got a backlog of customer orders and our competitors are restricting supply and increasing margin, they can't fullfill their order books, this could be a great opportunity to gain market share.. "OPEN THE TAPS"


Few months later at VW..

Ford have slashed leadtimes and making more cars available to our customers, their gaining a rapid chunk of market share.. what can we do!! "PRODUCTION, FULL STEAM AHEAD"

Etc... Etc..

New Fiesta and Focus models still cannot be ordered new due to supply chain problems.

Likely to be this situation for quite some time yet.

[AlexNJ89]

jimPH said:

Meanwhile, back at Ford HQ..

Well that's our supply chain sorted out, we've got a backlog of customer orders and our competitors are restricting supply and increasing margin, they can't fullfill their order books, this could be a great opportunity to gain market share.. "OPEN THE TAPS"


Few months later at VW..

Ford have slashed leadtimes and making more cars available to our customers, their gaining a rapid chunk of market share.. what can we do!! "PRODUCTION, FULL STEAM AHEAD"

Etc... Etc..

This guy understands supply and demand

[Macron]

av185 said:

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

My driving licence was issued in 196-

No-one in the 70's had money to do this. NO ONE. No one was buying cars. Wherever you got that from it's complete bks. You didn't have enough money for food.

Sound familiar?

There is currently an odd situation creating a boom. There have been many odd situations creating many odd booms.

Not once has it not ended with a bust.

There is always room for a first. Although people won't be arriving at the food banks in their ever-increasingly valuable Bentayaga's this Christmas.

[valiant]

Wilmslowboy said:

yellowbentines said:

Evercross said:

Earthdweller said:

Watched a YouTube video yesterday from a caravan dealer who was walking around his stock

He was saying that demand has just evaporated.. gone

He was pointing out vans and saying things like “we’re fully stocked up, bought loads of stock in, it’s just died a death, hands on the head time”

Lots of expensive stock and nobody buying, vans that would have sold in hours .. no interest.

That wasn't difficult to predict once international travel restrictions started to drop-off post Covid.

I wonder when we'll start to see the increase in badly finished/half-finished DIY camper van conversions on the market.

I'm in the mkt for a VW Cali Beach - Need to try and time it right as a correction could see a 20% drop.

You’ll be lucky on a Cali. Even pre-covid those things held their money like a limpet mine.

Campers are interesting. Vans are still in very short supply for the big converters and the traditional Sevel (Fiat/PSA Ducato) camper platform is still suffering delays and manufacturers are concentrating on the LHD market as it’s just easier to shift them.

Traded my van in a few weeks back and was offered very, very near what I paid for it 18 months ago and they were desperate for stock. Speaking to a different ‘main’ dealer a few months back and they weren’t getting any vans for 2022. Not one. Nada. And these guys are one of only 6 or 7 dealers specialising in this particular camper brand in the country and had won ‘best dealer’ for that brand over previous years. They were also desperate for quality stock.

Reading on forums and people are still waiting in some cases for two years from placing an order to hopefully getting a van.

Camper vans and motorhomes aim at a slightly different end of the market with generally cash rich people buying them and a lot of people who’ve recently retired using their pension lump sum to buy the van of their dreams. These people are less affected by the credit crunch than most and prices for motorhomes/camper vans are reflecting that. Even twenty year old plus stuff is attracting strong money.

Edited by valiant on Sunday 22 May 22:02

[The spinner of plates]

av185 said:

The spinner of plates said:

av185 said:

Yep this makes sense and I've been saying exactly the same throughout the thread. The days of huge initial new car depreciation in the UK could well now be a distant memory.

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

Okay thankfully we are extremely unlikely to return to those extreme levels of inflation but with many asset classes looking expensive and perhaps increasingly less upside in equity markets depending on your risk appetite then throwing money into a car is actually looking like a smarter move for many especially bearing in mind the rapidly rising prices of new cars and more inevitable price rises to come at all price points. Throw a minimum of 10% inflation into the mix and car purchasing looks even more attractive.

In your dreams.

And presumably in your nightmares because this is happening right now.

I’ve got no skin in the game, so sleep fine.

I do understand the supply side - prices are up, production now.
But this is a short term market reaction due to 2 years of money printing and nothing to spend it on due to lockdowns.

Going into H2 we can all now spend money as usual, yet real wages aren’t keeping up with living expense inflation.
This time next year demand will be down. And if the market wants to shift metal, so will prices.

It’s a bubble. Not the ever-upwards trend story you seem to either believe or be pedalling.

[av185]

Macron said:

av185 said:

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

My driving licence was issued in 196-

No-one in the 70's had money to do this. NO ONE. No one was buying cars. Wherever you got that from it's complete bks. You didn't have enough money for food.

Sound familiar?

There is currently an odd situation creating a boom. There have been many odd situations creating many odd booms.

Not once has it not ended with a bust.

There is always room for a first. Although people won't be arriving at the food banks in their ever-increasingly valuable Bentayaga's this Christmas.

Quite a coincidence this was just posted on another thread:



Doesn't take a genius to work out what is the shrewder move:

Sit on cash losing say 10% a year

Upgrade to a new/nearly new or more expensive car with all the benefits associated with this AND with the potential to come out with a profit or even break even.

[e-honda]

av185 said:

Quite a coincidence this was just posted on another thread:



Doesn't take a genius to work out what is the shrewder move:

Sit on cash losing say 10% a year

Upgrade to a new/nearly new or more expensive car with all the benefits associated with this AND with the potential to come out with a profit or even break even.

Inflation is a backwards looking measure, it doesn't directly tell you anything about prices in 12 months time, it tells you about prices 12 months ago.
The projections that put inflation reaching 10% this year also have them back down to a much more manageable 3.5% this time next year.

The 70s were a very different, average inflation through the whole decade was above what it is projected to be for this 1 single year.

[Teebs]

@AV185 - what car(s) would be a shrewd move to purchase and hedge against inflation then? Let's say 1 car for £10k / 20 / 30 / 40.

Thanks

[Fusion777]

Teebs said:

@AV185 - what car(s) would be a shrewd move to purchase and hedge against inflation then? Let's say 1 car for 10k / 20 / 30 / 40.

Thanks

Interested in hearing this, too.

[Auto810graphy]

jimPH said:

Meanwhile, back at Ford HQ..

Well that's our supply chain sorted out, we've got a backlog of customer orders and our competitors are restricting supply and increasing margin, they can't fullfill their order books, this could be a great opportunity to gain market share.. "OPEN THE TAPS"


Few months later at VW..

Ford have slashed leadtimes and making more cars available to our customers, their gaining a rapid chunk of market share.. what can we do!! "PRODUCTION, FULL STEAM AHEAD"

Etc... Etc..

If only it that were that easy. No mainstream manufacturers are producing anything near the number of cars or vans they did in 2019. Every day we get emails from manufacturers advising of shut downs, delays etc. if any stock does become available it’s full retail price.

Even Tesla who seemed on top of supply are falling behind with cars due for delivery this month going towards September delivery.

As for used prices, CAP was dropping on most mainstream cars for about 6 weeks but dealers have kept buying with strong in the past week CAP live seems to have remained the same on many cars I have checked.

[carparkno1]

av185 said:

Macron said:

av185 said:

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

My driving licence was issued in 196-

No-one in the 70's had money to do this. NO ONE. No one was buying cars. Wherever you got that from it's complete bks. You didn't have enough money for food.

Sound familiar?

There is currently an odd situation creating a boom. There have been many odd situations creating many odd booms.

Not once has it not ended with a bust.

There is always room for a first. Although people won't be arriving at the food banks in their ever-increasingly valuable Bentayaga's this Christmas.

Quite a coincidence this was just posted on another thread:



Doesn't take a genius to work out what is the shrewder move:

Sit on cash losing say 10% a year

Upgrade to a new/nearly new or more expensive car with all the benefits associated with this AND with the potential to come out with a profit or even break even.

So have 20k savings sat at the bank, being very stagnant but very safe, or splurge £400 a month into a 3 series on the gamble that in a couple of years time it's still worth the same in a post covid environment?

[Earthdweller]

av185 said:

Quite a coincidence this was just posted on another thread:



Doesn't take a genius to work out what is the shrewder move:

Sit on cash losing say 10% a year

Upgrade to a new/nearly new or more expensive car with all the benefits associated with this AND with the potential to come out with a profit or even break even.

Selective quoting is a wonderful thing isn’t it ?

Because on the same thread the same person also said ..

the thread was about the price of classic cars falling and cars not making reserves at auction and titled “market cooling”

[Teebs]

carparkno1 said:

So have 20k savings sat at the bank, being very stagnant but very safe, or splurge 400 a month into a 3 series on the gamble that in a couple of years time it's still worth the same in a post covid environment?

No, you've got this all wrong. You need one of his £16k Vauxhall Astras. Put the other £4k into crypto.

[swisstoni]

You would expect bank savings interest rates to eventually rise in a high interest economy, reducing the panic to turn cash into something else asap.

[carparkno1]

Teebs said:

carparkno1 said:

So have 20k savings sat at the bank, being very stagnant but very safe, or splurge 400 a month into a 3 series on the gamble that in a couple of years time it's still worth the same in a post covid environment?

No, you've got this all wrong. You need one of his 16k Vauxhall Astras. Put the other 4k into crypto.

Gamestop, BTC, Elite 200 - the new investment strategy of winners.

[av185]

e-honda said:

Inflation is a backwards looking measure, it doesn't directly tell you anything about prices in 12 months time, it tells you about prices 12 months ago.
The projections that put inflation reaching 10% this year also have them back down to a much more manageable 3.5% this time next year.

The 70s were a very different, average inflation through the whole decade was above what it is projected to be for this 1 single year.

You are correct the 70s were very different.

For a start there weren't the huge supply chain issues currently affecting the whole car industry.

[av185]

carparkno1 said:

av185 said:

Macron said:

av185 said:

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

My driving licence was issued in 196-

No-one in the 70's had money to do this. NO ONE. No one was buying cars. Wherever you got that from it's complete bks. You didn't have enough money for food.

Sound familiar?

There is currently an odd situation creating a boom. There have been many odd situations creating many odd booms.

Not once has it not ended with a bust.

There is always room for a first. Although people won't be arriving at the food banks in their ever-increasingly valuable Bentayaga's this Christmas.

Quite a coincidence this was just posted on another thread:



Doesn't take a genius to work out what is the shrewder move:

Sit on cash losing say 10% a year

Upgrade to a new/nearly new or more expensive car with all the benefits associated with this AND with the potential to come out with a profit or even break even.

So have 20k savings sat at the bank, being very stagnant but very safe, or splurge 400 a month into a 3 series on the gamble that in a couple of years time it's still worth the same in a post covid environment?

If your idea of 'safe' is a minimum of 10 to 12% erosion of your hard earned capital by rampant inflation then sit back do nothing and crack on but you will be alot poorer alot quicker than you think.

[The spinner of plates]

Fusion777 said:

Teebs said:

@AV185 - what car(s) would be a shrewd move to purchase and hedge against inflation then? Let's say 1 car for 10k / 20 / 30 / 40.

Thanks

Interested in hearing this, too.

Also waiting for guidance.

Even if just for fun.

Fire away AV185, pen at the ready to make notes.

[av185]

Earthdweller said:

av185 said:

Quite a coincidence this was just posted on another thread:



Doesn't take a genius to work out what is the shrewder move:

Sit on cash losing say 10% a year

Upgrade to a new/nearly new or more expensive car with all the benefits associated with this AND with the potential to come out with a profit or even break even.

Selective quoting is a wonderful thing isn’t it ?

Because on the same thread the same person also said ..

the thread was about the price of classic cars falling and cars not making reserves at auction and titled “market cooling”

The post was in direct reply to dmahons post incorrectly claiming no one bought cars as assets in tbe 1970s.

The thread is currently running and is merely a discussion about classic car prices with no real evidence other than anectodal or any accurate conclusions as to whether prices are rising cooling or staying the same.