Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Author
Discussion

av185

18,529 posts

128 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
av185 said:
You forgot to mention Forex. rolleyes

Incidentally its a pity you didn't throw some money into an Astra 18 months back when you would have only made a paltry 55% return on your capital. hehe
No you wouldn’t

If you’d bought a nearly new year old Astra it would have cost you 11k or so in 2020 for a 2018/9 car

That car is now 3/4 years old and a quick look at auto trader shows 3 year old Astras from around 10.5k retail

So you would have made no money on it

If you’d bought a new one for 23k it would now be retailing for 15-16k

So in both cases you would have lost money and would still have to find more money to replace them

For you to earn 55% return your 3 year old Astra would have to return you 17k and your now 18 month old one 35000 … i

Fantasy, pure fantasy

rofl


There is absolutely no way on earth
rofl

You are making things up again. Please try and get your facts and figures right don't just randomly pluck up figures and if you don't understand a market or car please don't make out you do by posting incorrectly otherwise you just look foolish. hehe

Do you not remember this which has been previously posted confirming over 54% rise which immediately disproves your post completely:



Furthermore I will just remind you once more of the figures I recently posted on here this very thread CAP figures for 18 68 200 Elite Nav

Mar 21 £9000
Jan 22 £12250
Feb 22 £12400
Mar 22 £12500
Ap 22 £12550
May 22 £12600

The cars were selling at up to £1500 behind CAP clean in March 21 whereas now they are virtually at book if very slightly behind maybe.

I'll leave it up to you to confirm the percentage rise but using say £8000 March 21 to £12600 current price this is a 57.5% increase further confirming my previous points.

I rest my case. judge

av185

18,529 posts

128 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Superflow said:
av185 said:
Yep this makes sense and I've been saying exactly the same throughout the thread. The days of huge initial new car depreciation in the UK could well now be a distant memory.

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

Okay thankfully we are extremely unlikely to return to those extreme levels of inflation but with many asset classes looking expensive and perhaps increasingly less upside in equity markets depending on your risk appetite then throwing money into a car is actually looking like a smarter move for many especially bearing in mind the rapidly rising prices of new cars and more inevitable price rises to come at all price points. Throw a minimum of 10% inflation into the mix and car purchasing looks even more attractive.
I’m afraid I’m way ahead of you old chap as early this morning I took delivery of 36 high spec Astra’s in mostly black and gold ,decided to cash up some bitcoin and go for it!

I took the precaution of calling the few neighbours last night as I didn’t want them waking up thinking Arnold Clark had moved in!.
Big mistake Leon Cupras are clearly where its at. biglaugh

Superflow

1,421 posts

133 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Superflow said:
av185 said:
Yep this makes sense and I've been saying exactly the same throughout the thread. The days of huge initial new car depreciation in the UK could well now be a distant memory.

Also whilst I and many others on this thread are clearly too young to remember much of what happened in the 1970s apparantly inflation hit 26% and holding cash was a very expensive pastime understandably. Consequently many bought cars which was one of the safest places for your money.

Okay thankfully we are extremely unlikely to return to those extreme levels of inflation but with many asset classes looking expensive and perhaps increasingly less upside in equity markets depending on your risk appetite then throwing money into a car is actually looking like a smarter move for many especially bearing in mind the rapidly rising prices of new cars and more inevitable price rises to come at all price points. Throw a minimum of 10% inflation into the mix and car purchasing looks even more attractive.
I’m afraid I’m way ahead of you old chap as early this morning I took delivery of 36 high spec Astra’s in mostly black and gold ,decided to cash up some bitcoin and go for it!

I took the precaution of calling the few neighbours last night as I didn’t want them waking up thinking Arnold Clark had moved in!.
Big mistake Leon Cupras are clearly where its at. biglaugh
Oh no! Annoying as I’ve one bitcoin left looks like it will have to be another Astra, neighbours are gonna be fuming!

av185

18,529 posts

128 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Superflow said:
Oh no! Annoying as I’ve one bitcoin left looks like it will have to be another Astra, neighbours are gonna be fuming!
Such is life. Its a compromise. biggrin:

ghost83

5,485 posts

191 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Think I’m just gonna wait it out I’m in absolutely no rush

I still think q4 of 2022 and q1 2023 is going to be very telling

I personally don’t see how prices will stay buoyant or continue to rise as the country goes to st

In my mind demand will stall which will allow supply to start speeding up, dealers in their expensive dealerships will need sales so their only option will be discounts or incentives!

Simple economics really!


volvos60s60

566 posts

215 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
I can only speak from personal experience.

I have both of my privately owned are cars for sale at the moment and it's a question of whichever sell first, I'll keep the other.

One is a 2013 Mini JCW, the other a 2012 Toyota iQ. Genuinely nothing negative or off putting about either car, low to average miles, good condition, service history, few owners, good MOT history, etc.

Both advertised at the lower end of the comparable vehicles on AT. Not a serious call on either.

I think something has to give if very little is moving across the board. If it's hard to sell 9 or 10 years old cars, especially a cheap to run recession proof car like the iQ for not much money, can you imagine how hard it must be to shift more expensive cars in the £15-30K bracket. Dealers not wanting to realise a loss is irrelevant if they can't shift anything, because they are not able to replace with lower price stock. Being a Trader & not trading is a short term career.

Any one else got real world experience to add to mine. My post is not a prediction, nor is it talking the market up or down, it simply saying what reality is right now

Fast Bug

11,739 posts

162 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
ghost83 said:
Think I’m just gonna wait it out I’m in absolutely no rush

I still think q4 of 2022 and q1 2023 is going to be very telling

I personally don’t see how prices will stay buoyant or continue to rise as the country goes to st

In my mind demand will stall which will allow supply to start speeding up, dealers in their expensive dealerships will need sales so their only option will be discounts or incentives!

Simple economics really!
Whilst demand will drop, the issue is the size of the backlog and quite a lot of the issues causing it aren't being resolved. Until the outstanding orders have been fulfilled, there's no need for a manufacturer to start offering incentives. And on the whole the incentives will have to come from the manufacturers as dealers have had both front and back end support cut so don't have any real room to make the same deals that they would've done a few years ago.

av185

18,529 posts

128 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
volvos60s60 said:
I can only speak from personal experience.

I have both of my privately owned are cars for sale at the moment and it's a question of whichever sell first, I'll keep the other.

One is a 2013 Mini JCW, the other a 2012 Toyota iQ. Genuinely nothing negative or off putting about either car, low to average miles, good condition, service history, few owners, good MOT history, etc.

Both advertised at the lower end of the comparable vehicles on AT. Not a serious call on either.

I think something has to give if very little is moving across the board. If it's hard to sell 9 or 10 years old cars, especially a cheap to run recession proof car like the iQ for not much money, can you imagine how hard it must be to shift more expensive cars in the 15-30K bracket. Dealers not wanting to realise a loss is irrelevant if they can't shift anything, because they are not able to replace with lower price stock. Being a Trader & not trading is a short term career.

Any one else got real world experience to add to mine. My post is not a prediction, nor is it talking the market up or down, it simply saying what reality is right now
Interesting but effectively it makes no difference if a car is 10k 40k 100k or 500k. If it is priced and advertised correctly it will sell.

Talking of Minis both new Cooper S which arrived last week have now sold at a 50% premium on new price paid. These cars were ordered last summer incredibly even with some discount (c 1500) and initially expected last November but due to componentry shortages, manufacturing stoppages etc etc they have been delayed numerous times as posted before in this thread. Despite many incorrectly constantly claiming on this very thread that most cars including Minis were readily available with short lead times. scratchchin

A stroke of luck has obviously been the huge price increases only the other week with some models having risen up to a colossal 30% alone a few with even lesser spec than the old models. The equivalent spec Mini now is c 29k basic. The second aspect is that the 'manuel' gearboxes can no longer be specced on new Minis again due to supply chain and componentry shortages. The net effect on prices of late new Minis is obvious.

So there we have it just one example of how ordering a new even mainstream car at the right time can be a very rewarding experience certainly beats the risky and frankly boring 'sitting on cash' alternative for sure and there will be many more examples over the next few months and years despite the usual naysayers and doom mongers incessantly banging their apocalyptic drums. biglaugh

Edited by av185 on Monday 23 May 15:33

ghost83

5,485 posts

191 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Fast Bug said:
Whilst demand will drop, the issue is the size of the backlog and quite a lot of the issues causing it aren't being resolved. Until the outstanding orders have been fulfilled, there's no need for a manufacturer to start offering incentives. And on the whole the incentives will have to come from the manufacturers as dealers have had both front and back end support cut so don't have any real room to make the same deals that they would've done a few years ago.
That’s why I’m saying q4 this year and q1 next that’s a good 6 months and let’s be honest the st will rly start hitting the fan in October and with Xmas coming, in those 6 month if they sort the semiconductor issue out before then will give supply a chance to catch up! Depends on if interest rates go up anymore and by how much, same with energy costs

Nefos

253 posts

85 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
ghost83 said:
That’s why I’m saying q4 this year and q1 next that’s a good 6 months and let’s be honest the st will rly start hitting the fan in October and with Xmas coming, in those 6 month if they sort the semiconductor issue out before then will give supply a chance to catch up! Depends on if interest rates go up anymore and by how much, same with energy costs
I have to agree, I feel like currently we are on a tipping point. The pandemic trends are clearly still going, with the supply chains and all, but it is obvious that things are very expensive now, and will only get more expensive, with inflation, rising food and energy prices and lets not forget rent. And while by the sounds of it the market is not normal, but there are areas where it shows that it might not be peak demand/supply shortages everywhere, for example if I go on Autotrader and look for main dealers stock (mix of brand new and approved used) it is not rare to find a dealer with 100+ cars on the site.

I just cannot see things continuing, it really looks like that a large amount of people will be worse off (I should have £150/m less saved up by September compared to March, just by rising prices) and the car prices are sky high. Something will have to give.

Regarding chip shortages, we are getting pushed around by large car chip orders, so that will catch up somehow eventually, there will be no constant chip shortages forever.

time waster

676 posts

242 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
volvos60s60 said:
I can only speak from personal experience.

I have both of my privately owned are cars for sale at the moment and it's a question of whichever sell first, I'll keep the other.

One is a 2013 Mini JCW, the other a 2012 Toyota iQ. Genuinely nothing negative or off putting about either car, low to average miles, good condition, service history, few owners, good MOT history, etc.

Both advertised at the lower end of the comparable vehicles on AT. Not a serious call on either.

I think something has to give if very little is moving across the board. If it's hard to sell 9 or 10 years old cars, especially a cheap to run recession proof car like the iQ for not much money, can you imagine how hard it must be to shift more expensive cars in the 15-30K bracket. Dealers not wanting to realise a loss is irrelevant if they can't shift anything, because they are not able to replace with lower price stock. Being a Trader & not trading is a short term career.

Any one else got real world experience to add to mine. My post is not a prediction, nor is it talking the market up or down, it simply saying what reality is right now
Interesting but effectively it makes no difference if a car is 10k 40k 100k or 500k. If it is priced and advertised correctly it will sell.

Talking of Minis both new Cooper S which arrived last week have now sold at a 50% premium on new price paid. These cars were ordered last summer incredibly even with some discount (c 1500) and initially expected last November but due to componentry shortages, manufacturing stoppages etc etc they have been delayed numerous times as posted before in this thread. Despite many incorrectly constantly claiming on this very thread that most cars including Minis were readily available with short lead times. scratchchin

A stroke of luck has obviously been the huge price increases only the other week with some models having risen up to a colossal 30% alone a few with even lesser spec than the old models. The equivalent spec Mini now is c 29k basic. The second aspect is that the 'manuel' gearboxes can no longer be specced on new Minis again due to supply chain and componentry shortages. The net effect on prices of late new Minis is obvious.

So there we have it just one example of how ordering a new even mainstream car at the right time can be a very rewarding experience certainly beats the risky and frankly boring 'sitting on cash' alternative for sure and there will be many more examples over the next few months and years despite the usual naysayers and doom mongers incessantly banging their apocalyptic drums. biglaugh

Edited by av185 on Monday 23 May 15:33
Whoever is buying a mini for 45k in this market has lost the plot. They are going to lose a lot of money on it.

mrdanbartlett

704 posts

218 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
volvos60s60 said:
I can only speak from personal experience.

I have both of my privately owned are cars for sale at the moment and it's a question of whichever sell first, I'll keep the other.

One is a 2013 Mini JCW, the other a 2012 Toyota iQ. Genuinely nothing negative or off putting about either car, low to average miles, good condition, service history, few owners, good MOT history, etc.

Both advertised at the lower end of the comparable vehicles on AT. Not a serious call on either.

I think something has to give if very little is moving across the board. If it's hard to sell 9 or 10 years old cars, especially a cheap to run recession proof car like the iQ for not much money, can you imagine how hard it must be to shift more expensive cars in the 15-30K bracket. Dealers not wanting to realise a loss is irrelevant if they can't shift anything, because they are not able to replace with lower price stock. Being a Trader & not trading is a short term career.

Any one else got real world experience to add to mine. My post is not a prediction, nor is it talking the market up or down, it simply saying what reality is right now
So what I'm looking at (C63 w205 saloons, so 30-60K as I just have the search set to any year) seems to be slowly lowering in terms of number for sale, its currently 118 yet has been as high at 170 around January. Its very weird as I see many which just have sat for sale but I'm only really looking at the bottom end of that market, but some really don't seem to be shifting so maybe only the top end ones are selling. One was up for £35k *(IMO 5k over-priced) and then it went on ebay twice as an auction and 'sold' for 25k, its been seen listed for £27k privately now (same seller so assume ebay didn't work out due to usual time wasters). Still it shows a more true valuation.

Also many on the c63 FB group are saying their WBAC valuation of their cars is approx. 8-10k under their own personal idea of a valuation. Definitely 'feels' like there is a gap starting to appear between listed prices and what people are willing to pay/trade in value. I wonder how this will pan out when people visit a dealer and now the trade in price they are offered is quite low and that gap to the next car seems quite big?



time waster

676 posts

242 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Nefos said:
ghost83 said:
That’s why I’m saying q4 this year and q1 next that’s a good 6 months and let’s be honest the st will rly start hitting the fan in October and with Xmas coming, in those 6 month if they sort the semiconductor issue out before then will give supply a chance to catch up! Depends on if interest rates go up anymore and by how much, same with energy costs
I have to agree, I feel like currently we are on a tipping point. The pandemic trends are clearly still going, with the supply chains and all, but it is obvious that things are very expensive now, and will only get more expensive, with inflation, rising food and energy prices and lets not forget rent. And while by the sounds of it the market is not normal, but there are areas where it shows that it might not be peak demand/supply shortages everywhere, for example if I go on Autotrader and look for main dealers stock (mix of brand new and approved used) it is not rare to find a dealer with 100+ cars on the site.

I just cannot see things continuing, it really looks like that a large amount of people will be worse off (I should have 150/m less saved up by September compared to March, just by rising prices) and the car prices are sky high. Something will have to give.

Regarding chip shortages, we are getting pushed around by large car chip orders, so that will catch up somehow eventually, there will be no constant chip shortages forever.
Agreed, the pain is going to be extreme. Just looking to renew my Sky sub - so went on the Sky forum, and everyone seems to be cancelling on there. Its just the start. When the next rise in the energy cap hits in October - energy prices could have doubled. Winter of discontent ? I'm long cash.

yellowbentines

5,342 posts

208 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Talking of Minis...
However staying on the MINI theme, 6 months ago I was looking to replace my ageing second car with a 5 door Cooper hatch, 1.5 petrol, manual box, less than 4 years old and 40k miles - the advertised prices are pretty much bang on where they were 6 months ago. No drop, but no increase either.




carparkno1

1,432 posts

159 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
time waster said:
av185 said:
volvos60s60 said:
I can only speak from personal experience.

I have both of my privately owned are cars for sale at the moment and it's a question of whichever sell first, I'll keep the other.

One is a 2013 Mini JCW, the other a 2012 Toyota iQ. Genuinely nothing negative or off putting about either car, low to average miles, good condition, service history, few owners, good MOT history, etc.

Both advertised at the lower end of the comparable vehicles on AT. Not a serious call on either.

I think something has to give if very little is moving across the board. If it's hard to sell 9 or 10 years old cars, especially a cheap to run recession proof car like the iQ for not much money, can you imagine how hard it must be to shift more expensive cars in the 15-30K bracket. Dealers not wanting to realise a loss is irrelevant if they can't shift anything, because they are not able to replace with lower price stock. Being a Trader & not trading is a short term career.

Any one else got real world experience to add to mine. My post is not a prediction, nor is it talking the market up or down, it simply saying what reality is right now
Interesting but effectively it makes no difference if a car is 10k 40k 100k or 500k. If it is priced and advertised correctly it will sell.

Talking of Minis both new Cooper S which arrived last week have now sold at a 50% premium on new price paid. These cars were ordered last summer incredibly even with some discount (c 1500) and initially expected last November but due to componentry shortages, manufacturing stoppages etc etc they have been delayed numerous times as posted before in this thread. Despite many incorrectly constantly claiming on this very thread that most cars including Minis were readily available with short lead times. scratchchin

A stroke of luck has obviously been the huge price increases only the other week with some models having risen up to a colossal 30% alone a few with even lesser spec than the old models. The equivalent spec Mini now is c 29k basic. The second aspect is that the 'manuel' gearboxes can no longer be specced on new Minis again due to supply chain and componentry shortages. The net effect on prices of late new Minis is obvious.

So there we have it just one example of how ordering a new even mainstream car at the right time can be a very rewarding experience certainly beats the risky and frankly boring 'sitting on cash' alternative for sure and there will be many more examples over the next few months and years despite the usual naysayers and doom mongers incessantly banging their apocalyptic drums. biglaugh

Edited by av185 on Monday 23 May 15:33
Whoever is buying a mini for 45k in this market has lost the plot. They are going to lose a lot of money on it.
Just to clarify, are you saying that the two mini Cooper S have sold for, sat, 45k against an rrp of 30k? Surely if these are brand new mini would only let you sell them for rrp and no more. If they aren't used you can't just set your own price for a mainstream hatch?

moonigan

2,145 posts

242 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
carparkno1 said:
Just to clarify, are you saying that the two mini Cooper S have sold for, sat, 45k against an rrp of 30k? Surely if these are brand new mini would only let you sell them for rrp and no more. If they aren't used you can't just set your own price for a mainstream hatch?
I think it reads 50% on new price paid which was the RRP for last year minus £1.5K discount so possibly paid around £24-25K and resold for £36/37K.

RUSTILLDOWN

362 posts

69 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Fast Bug said:
Whilst demand will drop, the issue is the size of the backlog and quite a lot of the issues causing it aren't being resolved. Until the outstanding orders have been fulfilled, there's no need for a manufacturer to start offering incentives. And on the whole the incentives will have to come from the manufacturers as dealers have had both front and back end support cut so don't have any real room to make the same deals that they would've done a few years ago.
If I PERSONALLY had to wait 6-12 months for a vehicle and a recession hit I’d cancel the order.
If my BUSINESS had to wait 6-12 months for a vehicle and a recession hit I’d cancel even quicker.

Roverp666

7 posts

24 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Can anyone explain? Been looking for a 3 year old car for about 12 months. I would like one, I don't need one, I have a perfectly serviceable 12 year old car with less than 80 000 on it. It works perfectly, its just dated. When all the silly prices started I didn't even phone around. If others are prepared/need to pay these prices I am quite willing to stand back and let them do so. Obviously there is no point telling a dealer you think a car is too highly priced if the guy stood behind you is willing to pay it etc. I have now noticed a very high percentage of the cars I have been tracking have been in the dealer system since November last year, some having dropped in price over 3k in that time. I also have now noticed dealers seem to be stuffed with cars, so thinking things have changed, I have called in to view a few. When I point out I know they have had the vehicle for nearly 6 months the patter changes from "you are lucky this is still available" to "even though we have had it so long we can't possibly offer anything off". I see says I "If you are advertising it surely you want to sell it, if you have not sold it for six months this perhaps suggests the selling price is too high? ". "Well we bought it at the height of the market, we have to sell it at its current price, just to make a tiny bit" I then explain I am here to buy, I understand they are continually reducing them, but if the vehicle is still for sale they are obviously not reducing them quickly enough or by the right amount, or both. I understand they may well have paid a bigger trade price than the current one back then but surely the retail price cannot include that loss. I then get that vacant look when the realize a sale is not forthcoming at their current price. Although a little frustrating, it's no biggy for me with my current car situation. The thing I don't get is with the current state of affairs, why are the dealers unwilling to negotiate. If it was me, sure I don't want to make a small profit or even a loss, but surely you are better getting what you can for the stock you paid too much for, get the cash back into the market and continue to sell at a profit. Hanging on to cars, constantly priced above what they will now sell for can't be a serious business strategy surely? I also know selling cars for a smaller profit or even a loss is not a serious business strategy, but looking at some of the profits from dealerships over the last 12 months it is clear dealers did well when trade prices for the vehicle they had previously bought had increased considerably by the time they got them to retail, and therefore were retail priced accordingly. I didn't mind this at all, that's good business, and no one is forcing me to buy a car, so good luck to them, however am I wrong to be thinking now the boot is on the other foot, surely it makes sense to respond accordingly?

Fusion777

2,248 posts

49 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
New or used?
Either.

time waster

676 posts

242 months

Monday 23rd May 2022
quotequote all
Roverp666 said:
Can anyone explain? Been looking for a 3 year old car for about 12 months. I would like one, I don't need one, I have a perfectly serviceable 12 year old car with less than 80 000 on it. It works perfectly, its just dated. When all the silly prices started I didn't even phone around. If others are prepared/need to pay these prices I am quite willing to stand back and let them do so. Obviously there is no point telling a dealer you think a car is too highly priced if the guy stood behind you is willing to pay it etc. I have now noticed a very high percentage of the cars I have been tracking have been in the dealer system since November last year, some having dropped in price over 3k in that time. I also have now noticed dealers seem to be stuffed with cars, so thinking things have changed, I have called in to view a few. When I point out I know they have had the vehicle for nearly 6 months the patter changes from "you are lucky this is still available" to "even though we have had it so long we can't possibly offer anything off". I see says I "If you are advertising it surely you want to sell it, if you have not sold it for six months this perhaps suggests the selling price is too high? ". "Well we bought it at the height of the market, we have to sell it at its current price, just to make a tiny bit" I then explain I am here to buy, I understand they are continually reducing them, but if the vehicle is still for sale they are obviously not reducing them quickly enough or by the right amount, or both. I understand they may well have paid a bigger trade price than the current one back then but surely the retail price cannot include that loss. I then get that vacant look when the realize a sale is not forthcoming at their current price. Although a little frustrating, it's no biggy for me with my current car situation. The thing I don't get is with the current state of affairs, why are the dealers unwilling to negotiate. If it was me, sure I don't want to make a small profit or even a loss, but surely you are better getting what you can for the stock you paid too much for, get the cash back into the market and continue to sell at a profit. Hanging on to cars, constantly priced above what they will now sell for can't be a serious business strategy surely? I also know selling cars for a smaller profit or even a loss is not a serious business strategy, but looking at some of the profits from dealerships over the last 12 months it is clear dealers did well when trade prices for the vehicle they had previously bought had increased considerably by the time they got them to retail, and therefore were retail priced accordingly. I didn't mind this at all, that's good business, and no one is forcing me to buy a car, so good luck to them, however am I wrong to be thinking now the boot is on the other foot, surely it makes sense to respond accordingly?
We are at the tipping point, hold on a little longer and they will be biting your hand for the money