Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[mrdanbartlett]

Wilmslowboy said:

Some interesting data out from Asda this morning, they have a weekly disposable income tracker (earnings, less essentials, less tax) which shows a year on year decline of 16% (the largest decline since 2008).

The tracker currently shows a disposable income level of 205, a level not seen since October 2018.
Unwinding all the significant gains seen during COVID.


A year on year decline in avg disposable income is a rare event, see graph and the few times the red line dips below zero (graph excludes latest month April 22 data) - Statement on latest data can be found here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26...

Very interesting, although I initially read it as £205 spare a month, but then realized it was a week - which must be quite sustainable for many I'd imagine, depending what you have going on in your life. Commuting costs could eat alot of that though depending where you live and work.

Still it shows things are tighter for most people, I guess the question is will people just lower their car level - i.e if you were getting a 320 on PCP you may get a Focus instead, but I don't know what peoples mindset is on that.

[Roverp666]

Venisonpie said:

Quite a bizarre post.

Trying to find my place in your analogy I'm a wanter (wtf?) without an asset and according to you my activities (wtf? again) are about to be curtailed.

Sadly you're wrong. I'm very much in the market and am about to start a new job with a 60% uplift in net pay. Let the games commence!

Sorry you found my post bizarre, I found that quite bizarre myself!

Congratulations on your new job, I hope you are happy with your improved terms.

As for your place in my analogy, you appear to have placed yourself in the incorrect category, so I am afraid it is you who is wrong.

To clarify, your normal financial expenditure is probably the same now as before you obtained your new employment. However you have now had 60% net pay rise, this is your asset. You are now a wanter with an asset, not without.

If you understood my post correctly, you will note it stated going forward the market will be made up of needers and wanters with assets.
It is the wanters without assets that are soon to have their activities curtailed. People, who have not had the good fortune of a net increase in pay and start to suffer the effects of tightening credit, higher interest rates rising inflation/cost of living.

For you, this is not an issue, and therefore you are happy able and willing to purchase now, regardless of anything else.

Obviously I hope everything works out with both your new job and car.

[Venisonpie]

Roverp666 said:

Sorry you found my post bizarre, I found that quite bizarre myself!

Congratulations on your new job, I hope you are happy with your improved terms.

As for your place in my analogy, you appear to have placed yourself in the incorrect category, so I am afraid it is you who is wrong.

To clarify, your normal financial expenditure is probably the same now as before you obtained your new employment. However you have now had 60% net pay rise, this is your asset. You are now a wanter with an asset, not without.

If you understood my post correctly, you will note it stated going forward the market will be made up of needers and wanters with assets.
It is the wanters without assets that are soon to have their activities curtailed. People, who have not had the good fortune of a net increase in pay and start to suffer the effects of tightening credit, higher interest rates rising inflation/cost of living.

For you, this is not an issue, and therefore you are happy able and willing to purchase now, regardless of anything else.

Obviously I hope everything works out with both your new job and car.

I think I'm just about keeping up with assets and positions!

[Earthdweller]

e-honda said:

Not just the scrappage scheme, record low costs of borrowing, which continued right up to autumn last year.

Yep,

£300 million of tax payers money ploughed into the motor trade to support it in 2009

Not quite the way AV describes it

[anonymous-user]

Earthdweller said:

Yep,

300 million of tax payers money ploughed into the motor trade to support it in 2009

Not quite the way AV describes it

And the majority of it was used to buy a Hyundai i10 as they were under £6K once the £2K scrappage was added. That really helped the UK car builders.

[Lexington59]

More press:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...

[jimPH]

Joey Deacon said:

Earthdweller said:

Yep,

300 million of tax payers money ploughed into the motor trade to support it in 2009

Not quite the way AV describes it

And the majority of it was used to buy a Hyundai i10 as they were under 6K once the 2K scrappage was added. That really helped the UK car builders.

Probably fueled the classic car market too. No doubt a few fast ford's and mk2 escorts found their way onto the runway of scrap

[e-honda]

There was a list that told you what was scrapped can't find the link

[Earthdweller]

e-honda said:

There was a list that told you what was scrapped can't find the link

This perhaps …

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/car-scr...

Quick scan examples …

3 M3’s

2 M535i’s

44 Porsche 944’s

30 Peugeot 205 GTI’s

Etc

Edited by Earthdweller on Friday 27th May 12:17

[ChocolateFrog]

Earthdweller said:

e-honda said:

There was a list that told you what was scrapped can't find the link

This perhaps …

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/car-scr...

Quick scan examples …

3 M3’s

2 M535i’s

44 Porsche 944’s

30 Peugeot 205 GTI’s

Etc

Edited by Earthdweller on Friday 27th May 12:17

Almost worth shedding a tear over, seems almost criminal.

Funny to think that many of those i10's that replaced them will have themselves been scrapped by now.

[ghost83]

Been into Porsche Leeds this morning to look at the macan
Currently if you order one you’re looking at q4 2023 for a gts

BUT he said things are starting to speed up now so that q4 they expect to come back to q2/q3 and even quicker for normal macans and S models

Also they’ve just increased the price by over 2k it seems

[Venisonpie]

ghost83 said:

Been into Porsche Leeds this morning to look at the macan
Currently if you order one you’re looking at q4 2023 for a gts

BUT he said things are starting to speed up now so that q4 they expect to come back to q2/q3 and even quicker for normal macans and S models

Also they’ve just increased the price by over 2k it seems

Are you saying that by Q4 this year orders placed should be received in Q2/3 next year (except GTS which is longer) and prices have gone up 2k on current levels?

If so I can't see that helping used prices until late 23/early 24. Which is 18 months.

So you could wait until then to order by which time cash will be worth even less than today, prices will likely have increased further and that assumes no more global interruption.

Order now!

[ghost83]

Venisonpie said:

Are you saying that by Q4 this year orders placed should be received in Q2/3 next year (except GTS which is longer) and prices have gone up 2k on current levels?

If so I can't see that helping used prices until late 23/early 24. Which is 18 months.

So you could wait until then to order by which time cash will be worth even less than today, prices will likely have increased further and that assumes no more global interruption.

Order now!

Porsche 911 is upto 2yrs wait

So used values for them will stay high for a while, he told me at the garage that if I order a car and for whatever reason I changed my mind due to interest or price rises they would refund the deposit as they will sell no problem, luxury goods though isn’t it,

Bmw are advertising upto 5,000 contribution to some cars (not sure if new or used though)

Audi also told me if my missus orders an A1 she would get it within 16 weeks no issue

[Earthdweller]

ghost83 said:

Been into Porsche Leeds this morning to look at the macan
Currently if you order one you’re looking at q4 2023 for a gts

BUT he said things are starting to speed up now so that q4 they expect to come back to q2/q3 and even quicker for normal macans and S models

Also they’ve just increased the price by over 2k it seems

Interesting,

So he’s saying 18 months plus wait now but likely to reduce to less than 12 months or even quicker than that for non GTS models

How does that compare to pre Covid delivery times ?

Re the 911 and two year wait .. likewise, haven’t they always had long lead times ?

The last two BMW’s I factory ordered ( pre Covid ) were 6 months and 10 months respectively)

A friend of mine ordered a Golf R a couple of months back and has been given August for delivery, the dealer didn’t take a deposit from him, likewise they said if he cancels they’ll just sell it

[Fast Bug]

When I sold new Porsche lead times were between 6-9 months. That was a good few years ago now, christ I feel old....

[Milemuncher]

22 years ago I paid list price for a 9-month old Boxster because I was quoted a 12-month wait for a new one. Longish lead times are nothing new in Porsche land.

[av185]

ghost83 said:

Porsche 911 is upto 2yrs wait

So used values for them will stay high for a while, he told me at the garage that if I order a car and for whatever reason I changed my mind due to interest or price rises they would refund the deposit as they will sell no problem, luxury goods though isn’t it,

Lead times vary it depends on the model of 911.

Porsche were intending building a 992 Carrera T to follow the 991.2 Carrera T but it looks like they have pulled it. That would have been a good package and fairly accessible low numbers car for those with little buying history. Residually brilliant too.

Yours sales guy is broadly correct on the Carrera but looks like 30 months lead time not 24 months. My 992 Turbo S and GT3 still not arrived. TTS lead times now 28 months which will be the gen 2 992.

Bear in mind too a Carrera ordered now will be the next gen so 992.2 not 992.1.

Future price rises on new Carreras are inevitable bearing in mind the long lead times and broadly you will be liable for any increases in price up to spec freeze date although this is at the discretion of the individual OPC. If you cancel the order after spec freeze date the OPC technically can keep your deposit but again this would depend on the OPC actual car and actual spec chosen.

[ghost83]

Earthdweller said:

Interesting,

So he’s saying 18 months plus wait now but likely to reduce to less than 12 months or even quicker than that for non GTS models

How does that compare to pre Covid delivery times ?

Re the 911 and two year wait .. likewise, haven’t they always had long lead times ?

The last two BMW’s I factory ordered ( pre Covid ) were 6 months and 10 months respectively)

A friend of mine ordered a Golf R a couple of months back and has been given August for delivery, the dealer didn’t take a deposit from him, likewise they said if he cancels they’ll just sell it

He specifically said they can get base macans within 8 months
And the gts q4 2023 at the moment

BUT he said things are speeding up so the gts could move towards q2/q3 2023

[Venisonpie]

I bought a brand new Cayman 981 3 days before Christmas in 2013, 9 mths after they were launched.

Was guards red stock car and I managed a discount of just under 11% on list.

Try that in the next 3 years for a similar car. No chance.

[av185]

Yep 981 GT4s with 25k miles at 7 years old still selling over list price.