Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)
Discussion
Al U said:
Venisonpie said:
They do live in a bubble though, they're not susceptible to the current inflation levels in the same way some are. Life is normal as are their buying habits.
As car enthusiasts we're perhaps aware of the market but many people simply don't know or care. If they can afford it they'll have it.
For the current prices to crash finance needs to become unavailable or unaffordable, unemployment needs to rise and supply increased. None of those things are close to happening.
Regarding this 40% that said no, the question was "have you cut back on non-essential spending". Non-essential is obviously quite subjective but I would put essentials down as mortgage/rent, utilities, motoring costs and food.As car enthusiasts we're perhaps aware of the market but many people simply don't know or care. If they can afford it they'll have it.
For the current prices to crash finance needs to become unavailable or unaffordable, unemployment needs to rise and supply increased. None of those things are close to happening.
Have I bought anything in the last few months other than those things? Of course I have. Did I think of the cost of living crisis is a bit much at the moment so I can't justify going out for this meal or buying these clothes etc? No. So if asked the question I would say no as well.
So I wouldn't say I live in a bubble and yes inflation with regards to fuel prices and supermarket shops etc. has gone up and that's a cost I have to accept but in terms of buying a car, I don't have to accept the high prices being asked when I think it's going to continue going down.
I think the people you are talking about who genuinely couldn't care less about the price of cars or depreciation are a much lower percentage of the population and are probably buying cars at the higher end of the market approaching 6 figures.
I think we are now at a very interesting stage. In the past obviously due to normal market rules it was easier to get a better deal on a car longer in stock. Having been looking for a newer car myself (I am lucky enough to just want one, I don't need one, having a perfectly serviceable older vehicle) I have now noticed a change in tack, have others?
Due to the rapidly emerging factors of high inflation, rising cost of living, higher interest rates etc (often disguised within the car industry using the much more palatable phrase of low supply and demand), I believe dealers/retailers are now sourcing stock at considerably less cost than previously. One would be forgiven that this of course allows them to sell these vehicles quicker, as they are more keenly priced. I suspect the general feeling is to use these sales to keep things ticking over whilst still desperately trying to sell the majority of ageing stock (in many cases from my personal research now approaching 9 months in trade) that they have overpaid for in the silly season of last July to November.
Unfortunately I feel as someone else has accurately described it on here, "all the easy marks have gone!"
Even with low demand, if we assume these vehicles now starting to enter the system will be bought, where does that leave us with the majority of aged overpriced stock? I can only see new car production increasing which further (from a dealers/retailers point of view) worsens this situation. Having heard so many "Can't reduce that any further as there is little profit in it after you take into consideration the high trade price we paid for it 9 months ago", I can't but help wonder the end game, as there does not seem any viable solution. These cars can't be sold (a brave statement I know, but if it's been in trade 9 months, that for me is more than a reasonable indicator.) If they are not sold, where is the income to sustain the business? If they sell now for what people are willing to pay, there is no profit, potentially loss, again where is the income to sustain the business? If they continue not to sell, the vehicle loses more value as more time goes by, again where is the income for the business. Some might think another brave statement but I think even the most ardent purveyors of the "everything is going to keep going up forever" brigade are finally starting to accept the evidence of the last few months or so.
As I am convinced the dealers/retailers are currently sticking their heads in the sand regarding these vehicles, hoping miraculously they will suddenly increase in value to justify the asking prices, in order to sell them, as ever, I'm interested as always on others thoughts regarding this.
Due to the rapidly emerging factors of high inflation, rising cost of living, higher interest rates etc (often disguised within the car industry using the much more palatable phrase of low supply and demand), I believe dealers/retailers are now sourcing stock at considerably less cost than previously. One would be forgiven that this of course allows them to sell these vehicles quicker, as they are more keenly priced. I suspect the general feeling is to use these sales to keep things ticking over whilst still desperately trying to sell the majority of ageing stock (in many cases from my personal research now approaching 9 months in trade) that they have overpaid for in the silly season of last July to November.
Unfortunately I feel as someone else has accurately described it on here, "all the easy marks have gone!"
Even with low demand, if we assume these vehicles now starting to enter the system will be bought, where does that leave us with the majority of aged overpriced stock? I can only see new car production increasing which further (from a dealers/retailers point of view) worsens this situation. Having heard so many "Can't reduce that any further as there is little profit in it after you take into consideration the high trade price we paid for it 9 months ago", I can't but help wonder the end game, as there does not seem any viable solution. These cars can't be sold (a brave statement I know, but if it's been in trade 9 months, that for me is more than a reasonable indicator.) If they are not sold, where is the income to sustain the business? If they sell now for what people are willing to pay, there is no profit, potentially loss, again where is the income to sustain the business? If they continue not to sell, the vehicle loses more value as more time goes by, again where is the income for the business. Some might think another brave statement but I think even the most ardent purveyors of the "everything is going to keep going up forever" brigade are finally starting to accept the evidence of the last few months or so.
As I am convinced the dealers/retailers are currently sticking their heads in the sand regarding these vehicles, hoping miraculously they will suddenly increase in value to justify the asking prices, in order to sell them, as ever, I'm interested as always on others thoughts regarding this.
Roverp666 said:
I think we are now at a very interesting stage. In the past obviously due to normal market rules it was easier to get a better deal on a car longer in stock. Having been looking for a newer car myself (I am lucky enough to just want one, I don't need one, having a perfectly serviceable older vehicle) I have now noticed a change in tack, have others?
Due to the rapidly emerging factors of high inflation, rising cost of living, higher interest rates etc (often disguised within the car industry using the much more palatable phrase of low supply and demand), I believe dealers/retailers are now sourcing stock at considerably less cost than previously. One would be forgiven that this of course allows them to sell these vehicles quicker, as they are more keenly priced. I suspect the general feeling is to use these sales to keep things ticking over whilst still desperately trying to sell the majority of ageing stock (in many cases from my personal research now approaching 9 months in trade) that they have overpaid for in the silly season of last July to November.
Unfortunately I feel as someone else has accurately described it on here, "all the easy marks have gone!"
Even with low demand, if we assume these vehicles now starting to enter the system will be bought, where does that leave us with the majority of aged overpriced stock? I can only see new car production increasing which further (from a dealers/retailers point of view) worsens this situation. Having heard so many "Can't reduce that any further as there is little profit in it after you take into consideration the high trade price we paid for it 9 months ago", I can't but help wonder the end game, as there does not seem any viable solution. These cars can't be sold (a brave statement I know, but if it's been in trade 9 months, that for me is more than a reasonable indicator.) If they are not sold, where is the income to sustain the business? If they sell now for what people are willing to pay, there is no profit, potentially loss, again where is the income to sustain the business? If they continue not to sell, the vehicle loses more value as more time goes by, again where is the income for the business. Some might think another brave statement but I think even the most ardent purveyors of the "everything is going to keep going up forever" brigade are finally starting to accept the evidence of the last few months or so.
As I am convinced the dealers/retailers are currently sticking their heads in the sand regarding these vehicles, hoping miraculously they will suddenly increase in value to justify the asking prices, in order to sell them, as ever, I'm interested as always on others thoughts regarding this.
Nice post. Suspect some dealers will cut their loses and get rid of stock if it allows them to use funds to then buy new stock at better prices and turn profit on those. I have seen some long term dealer cars be reduced now, but as the overal number for sale doesn't seem to be growing (on what I'm looking at) maybe they can be patient as that indicates the supply and demand is not too far off?Due to the rapidly emerging factors of high inflation, rising cost of living, higher interest rates etc (often disguised within the car industry using the much more palatable phrase of low supply and demand), I believe dealers/retailers are now sourcing stock at considerably less cost than previously. One would be forgiven that this of course allows them to sell these vehicles quicker, as they are more keenly priced. I suspect the general feeling is to use these sales to keep things ticking over whilst still desperately trying to sell the majority of ageing stock (in many cases from my personal research now approaching 9 months in trade) that they have overpaid for in the silly season of last July to November.
Unfortunately I feel as someone else has accurately described it on here, "all the easy marks have gone!"
Even with low demand, if we assume these vehicles now starting to enter the system will be bought, where does that leave us with the majority of aged overpriced stock? I can only see new car production increasing which further (from a dealers/retailers point of view) worsens this situation. Having heard so many "Can't reduce that any further as there is little profit in it after you take into consideration the high trade price we paid for it 9 months ago", I can't but help wonder the end game, as there does not seem any viable solution. These cars can't be sold (a brave statement I know, but if it's been in trade 9 months, that for me is more than a reasonable indicator.) If they are not sold, where is the income to sustain the business? If they sell now for what people are willing to pay, there is no profit, potentially loss, again where is the income to sustain the business? If they continue not to sell, the vehicle loses more value as more time goes by, again where is the income for the business. Some might think another brave statement but I think even the most ardent purveyors of the "everything is going to keep going up forever" brigade are finally starting to accept the evidence of the last few months or so.
As I am convinced the dealers/retailers are currently sticking their heads in the sand regarding these vehicles, hoping miraculously they will suddenly increase in value to justify the asking prices, in order to sell them, as ever, I'm interested as always on others thoughts regarding this.
Just sold my car on autotrader - listed it at 9:30 in the evening, sold by 7:30 the following morning.
Listed it at the autotrader recommend price, accepted an offer for 2% less, paid and collected within 24 hours - £80k plus car.
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
I was going to try motorway and WBAC but thier algorithms are rubbish when it comes to spec sensitive cars.
Lesson - dealers still buying high quality good value cars.
I listed on PH for the week before, except a few derisory offers little or no response.
Listed it at the autotrader recommend price, accepted an offer for 2% less, paid and collected within 24 hours - £80k plus car.
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
I was going to try motorway and WBAC but thier algorithms are rubbish when it comes to spec sensitive cars.
Lesson - dealers still buying high quality good value cars.
I listed on PH for the week before, except a few derisory offers little or no response.
Wilmslowboy said:
Just sold my car on autotrader - listed it at 9:30 in the evening, sold by 7:30 the following morning.
Listed it at the autotrader recommend price, accepted an offer for 2% less, paid and collected within 24 hours - £80k plus car.
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
I was going to try motorway and WBAC but thier algorithms are rubbish when it comes to spec sensitive cars.
Lesson - dealers still buying high quality good value cars.
I listed on PH for the week before, except a few derisory offers little or no response.
I’m guessing at that price it is a sought after car and not representative of the mainstream market.Listed it at the autotrader recommend price, accepted an offer for 2% less, paid and collected within 24 hours - £80k plus car.
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
I was going to try motorway and WBAC but thier algorithms are rubbish when it comes to spec sensitive cars.
Lesson - dealers still buying high quality good value cars.
I listed on PH for the week before, except a few derisory offers little or no response.
The top end will buy in any market conditions as price is less relevant for them.
Superflow said:
Wilmslowboy said:
Just sold my car on autotrader - listed it at 9:30 in the evening, sold by 7:30 the following morning.
Listed it at the autotrader recommend price, accepted an offer for 2% less, paid and collected within 24 hours - £80k plus car.
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
I was going to try motorway and WBAC but thier algorithms are rubbish when it comes to spec sensitive cars.
Lesson - dealers still buying high quality good value cars.
I listed on PH for the week before, except a few derisory offers little or no response.
I’m guessing at that price it is a sought after car and not representative of the mainstream market.Listed it at the autotrader recommend price, accepted an offer for 2% less, paid and collected within 24 hours - £80k plus car.
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
I was going to try motorway and WBAC but thier algorithms are rubbish when it comes to spec sensitive cars.
Lesson - dealers still buying high quality good value cars.
I listed on PH for the week before, except a few derisory offers little or no response.
The top end will buy in any market conditions as price is less relevant for them.
Wilmslowboy said:
It was the cheapest listed (similar spec car) on AT by about 10% and sold to a dealer.
This also puts you in the minority for most private adverts at the moment which in my experience are at or even in some cases above(!) what a trader/dealer is asking for a very similar car in terms of mileage spec etc.This is on much more mainstream things in the sub £40k region though as that's where I am looking.
There was a couple of W204 C63's go on ebay via auction method recently, which is also an interesting indicator vs a fixed price sale.
Both seemed to really struggle, final bids were low etc. I guess these are one of the worst hit in this current high cost fuel era as they are very thirsty but not in the price range where those buying don't care so much about fuel prices.
Overall the market seems pretty slow, not alot coming on and not a great deal selling, so overall numbers remain the same.
Interested to hear from any dealers and private sellers about how they are seeing things. I feel since AV stepped down from the thread its alot calmer but alot less busy as there isn't so much to argue about. I guess we all feel the market is slowly on the way down at present, but nothing overly drastic.
Both seemed to really struggle, final bids were low etc. I guess these are one of the worst hit in this current high cost fuel era as they are very thirsty but not in the price range where those buying don't care so much about fuel prices.
Overall the market seems pretty slow, not alot coming on and not a great deal selling, so overall numbers remain the same.
Interested to hear from any dealers and private sellers about how they are seeing things. I feel since AV stepped down from the thread its alot calmer but alot less busy as there isn't so much to argue about. I guess we all feel the market is slowly on the way down at present, but nothing overly drastic.
mrdanbartlett said:
There was a couple of W204 C63's go on ebay via auction method recently, which is also an interesting indicator vs a fixed price sale.
Both seemed to really struggle, final bids were low etc. I guess these are one of the worst hit in this current high cost fuel era as they are very thirsty but not in the price range where those buying don't care so much about fuel prices.
Overall the market seems pretty slow, not alot coming on and not a great deal selling, so overall numbers remain the same.
Interested to hear from any dealers and private sellers about how they are seeing things. I feel since AV stepped down from the thread its alot calmer but alot less busy as there isn't so much to argue about. I guess we all feel the market is slowly on the way down at present, but nothing overly drastic.
I didn't realise how many W204 C63s there were in existence until I started following them. There are so so many for sale.Both seemed to really struggle, final bids were low etc. I guess these are one of the worst hit in this current high cost fuel era as they are very thirsty but not in the price range where those buying don't care so much about fuel prices.
Overall the market seems pretty slow, not alot coming on and not a great deal selling, so overall numbers remain the same.
Interested to hear from any dealers and private sellers about how they are seeing things. I feel since AV stepped down from the thread its alot calmer but alot less busy as there isn't so much to argue about. I guess we all feel the market is slowly on the way down at present, but nothing overly drastic.
I’m after something new. Been watching a few cars (at dealers) and they still have the same cars listed at the same price for 2-3 months. No drop yet for what I’m looking at, but they’re not selling. I’m going to hold on for a few more months and see what happens (unless something really nice pops up).
mrdanbartlett said:
How would that translate? Do you mean suddenly loads of cars will be produced but the demand for them won't be there? I personally cannot see that as I suspect it will take a long time for car makers to 'catch up' with production and as it'll happen slowly they won't overshoot it.
I was thinking for the used car market. Dealers continue to buy stock at their current pace but demand has suddenly slowed leaving a huge amount of cars on forecourts depreciating rapidly.AlexNJ89 said:
I was thinking for the used car market. Dealers continue to buy stock at their current pace but demand has suddenly slowed leaving a huge amount of cars on forecourts depreciating rapidly.
Ah ok, well I think they'd stop buying cars if they aren't shifting them, or will cut losses and get new cheaper stock.I've tracked w205 C63's for a fairly long period now and the number for sale (107) is stable, and quite low compared to last years peak (180) but above the low of 60 it has been. Its actually been on a slow decline.
Not sure on the overall numbers of general cars on sale on AT for example.
mrdanbartlett said:
Ah ok, well I think they'd stop buying cars if they aren't shifting them, or will cut losses and get new cheaper stock.
I've tracked w205 C63's for a fairly long period now and the number for sale (107) is stable, and quite low compared to last years peak (180) but above the low of 60 it has been. Its actually been on a slow decline.
Not sure on the overall numbers of general cars on sale on AT for example.
The theory in the video is that they will have already bought the stock before they spot the signal that demand has stopped.I've tracked w205 C63's for a fairly long period now and the number for sale (107) is stable, and quite low compared to last years peak (180) but above the low of 60 it has been. Its actually been on a slow decline.
Not sure on the overall numbers of general cars on sale on AT for example.
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