Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)
Discussion
Pommy said:
nickfrog said:
Pommy said:
No, youre just being a sarcastic prick.You'll go find it if you really want it but I don't think you really do.
I thought you had mentioned basic discussion decency?Where would I find your analysts' views on used car values?
I am always keen on other people's view. Big fan of the plurality of opinions.
I don't think you are, you'll find it if you want to.
Nice swerve anyway.
I do want to find your investment analysts' view on used car prices. If it was in the public domain you would have posted a link to it very early on in this thread instead of the information you posted.
And I am glad I avoided you posting your employer's IP on a public forum though.
nickfrog said:
Pommy said:
nickfrog said:
Pommy said:
No, youre just being a sarcastic prick.You'll go find it if you really want it but I don't think you really do.
I thought you had mentioned basic discussion decency?Where would I find your analysts' views on used car values?
I am always keen on other people's view. Big fan of the plurality of opinions.
I don't think you are, you'll find it if you want to.
Nice swerve anyway.
I do want to find your investment analysts' view on used car prices. If it was in the public domain you would have posted a link to it very early on in this thread instead of the information you posted.
And I am glad I avoided you posting your employer's IP on a public forum though.
Have you considered I'm not sat here on a weekend with my analysts data sat on my phone just waiting to post it? No, I wouldn't think you have.
time waster said:
Work in social care, hospitality - you can't fill jobs at the moment. The open positions will protect the uk - but people have to realise that to earn money you need to work and not just be an influencer. Hopefully a correction will act as a level of stabilisation - as too many people got used to living under furlough and believe it is a new norm.
It is somewhat plausible that forecasts have included current vacancies, when projecting unemployment.Deep Thought said:
Whats your take on it?
Usually rich people especially Buisiness people are rich because they are pretty shrewd and they are the type who would be selling for overs not buying.A fool and his money is easily parted springs to mind when paying overs on a historically heavy depreciating vehicle imo.
Pommy said:
The decency went out when you decided to be sarcastic.
I don't think you are, you'll find it if you want to.
I often disagree with nick, but he is usually a fair guy to debate with. He hasn't posted in any way that looks like a problem as far as i can see, certainly not in a way that warrants calling him a prick.I don't think you are, you'll find it if you want to.
You aren't an analyst, you work with some. There is a reason they have that job and you don't.
It's often the case that people read publications written for a specialist and dont take from it the same message a specialist would. Do you agree that is a fair statement?
Tomanybikes said:
Deep Thought said:
Whats your take on it?
Usually rich people especially Buisiness people are rich because they are pretty shrewd and they are the type who would be selling for overs not buying.A fool and his money is easily parted springs to mind when paying overs on a historically heavy depreciating vehicle imo.
I take your point RE: it being a bad idea to pay overs on something like that.
A friend of my sons sells BMWs and we were talking a little while ago about the price of some of the BMW high end stuff. He commented it was quite usual for people to come in and spend 6 figure sums on BMWs now. Not every day, but it did happen regularly. Things like top end X5, X7. Stuff i'd normally associate with heart stopping depreciation.
He said generally they were bought through these peoples companies or "the monthlies" paid for through the companies and they werent normally concerned or bothered by the depreciation. Maybe they were rich enough not to care or could write a lot of the depreciation off to tax.
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 14th August 12:45
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.Deep Thought said:
Tomanybikes said:
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.I'd have thought that unusual to say the least.
They'd be investing in corporations and bonds on the financial markets, not concerning themselves about the future values of say, a VW Golf, would they not?
I have no idea but Pom was giving his opinion and you are giving yours both equally speculative but the used car market is at a very high point and a recession with high inflation with fuel prices increasing at set to increase much further if I was a betting man I would go with prices dropping.
Deep Thought said:
Agreed.
I take your point RE: it being a bad idea to pay overs on something like that.
A friend of my sons sells BMWs and we were talking a little while ago about the price of some of the BMW high end stuff. He commented it was quite usual for people to come in and spend 6 figure sums on BMWs now. Not every day, but it did happen regularly. Things like top end X5, X7. Stuff i'd normally associate with heart stopping depreciation.
He said generally they were bought through these peoples companies or "the monthlies" paid for through the companies and they werent normally concerned or bothered by the depreciation. Maybe they were rich enough not to care or could write a lot of the depreciation off to tax.
I have never understood the Company pays the monthlies so not bothered, what about the BIK that has to be paid on top?I take your point RE: it being a bad idea to pay overs on something like that.
A friend of my sons sells BMWs and we were talking a little while ago about the price of some of the BMW high end stuff. He commented it was quite usual for people to come in and spend 6 figure sums on BMWs now. Not every day, but it did happen regularly. Things like top end X5, X7. Stuff i'd normally associate with heart stopping depreciation.
He said generally they were bought through these peoples companies or "the monthlies" paid for through the companies and they werent normally concerned or bothered by the depreciation. Maybe they were rich enough not to care or could write a lot of the depreciation off to tax.
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 14th August 12:45
Tomanybikes said:
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.The analysts present to us their findings which we then work with portfolio and investment strategists to design Ideal Portfolios, Managed Account constructs, Asset Allocation and core/satellite fund strategies to utilise with Investment Consultants and Wealth Managers.
Their work goes to ensuring we don't just invest funds based on thoughts and prayers.
But hey, what would I know.
Tomanybikes said:
Unless the finance house offered capital for lending to the car trade and we’re keen to know the risk element on PCP residual values.
I have no idea but Pom was giving his opinion and you are giving yours both equally speculative but the used car market is at a very high point and a recession with high inflation with fuel prices increasing at set to increase much further if I was a betting man I would go with prices dropping.
Correct. Adding that he works with investment analysts does make his correct though.I have no idea but Pom was giving his opinion and you are giving yours both equally speculative but the used car market is at a very high point and a recession with high inflation with fuel prices increasing at set to increase much further if I was a betting man I would go with prices dropping.
Like you i would agree prices will drop. My view is that will be in line with typical historic depreciation and from the point they are at now. I dont believe we will see a sudden say, 20-25% in the next six months, irrespective of prevailing economic conditions.
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 14th August 13:26
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.In addition in some countries there are stamp duties on the value of vehicle transfers, values of which will fall and therefore affect funding requirements further. And yes, Government incomes are acutely affected by investment markets, not just taxes.
So forward planning revenue falls is absolutely the domain of Automotive Industry analysts...used and new cars.
Tomanybikes said:
Deep Thought said:
Agreed.
I take your point RE: it being a bad idea to pay overs on something like that.
A friend of my sons sells BMWs and we were talking a little while ago about the price of some of the BMW high end stuff. He commented it was quite usual for people to come in and spend 6 figure sums on BMWs now. Not every day, but it did happen regularly. Things like top end X5, X7. Stuff i'd normally associate with heart stopping depreciation.
He said generally they were bought through these peoples companies or "the monthlies" paid for through the companies and they werent normally concerned or bothered by the depreciation. Maybe they were rich enough not to care or could write a lot of the depreciation off to tax.
I have never understood the Company pays the monthlies so not bothered, what about the BIK that has to be paid on top?I take your point RE: it being a bad idea to pay overs on something like that.
A friend of my sons sells BMWs and we were talking a little while ago about the price of some of the BMW high end stuff. He commented it was quite usual for people to come in and spend 6 figure sums on BMWs now. Not every day, but it did happen regularly. Things like top end X5, X7. Stuff i'd normally associate with heart stopping depreciation.
He said generally they were bought through these peoples companies or "the monthlies" paid for through the companies and they werent normally concerned or bothered by the depreciation. Maybe they were rich enough not to care or could write a lot of the depreciation off to tax.
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 14th August 12:45
Tomanybikes said:
Unless the finance house offered capital for lending to the car trade and we’re keen to know the risk element on PCP residual values.
I have no idea but Pom was giving his opinion and you are giving yours both equally speculative but the used car market is at a very high point and a recession with high inflation with fuel prices increasing at set to increase much further if I was a betting man I would go with prices dropping.
Fuel prices, as in what we put in our cars, has been falling for a while.I have no idea but Pom was giving his opinion and you are giving yours both equally speculative but the used car market is at a very high point and a recession with high inflation with fuel prices increasing at set to increase much further if I was a betting man I would go with prices dropping.
Brent crude peaked at $123 in march, it's now $97.
It was $139 in 2008 before the GFC hit the markets.
The main issues driving car prices is lack of supply and the inflation inherent in new car legislation.
It's the perfect environment to hide from the public just how inflationary our shift to net zero is.
Pommy said:
Tomanybikes said:
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.The analysts present to us their findings which we then work with portfolio and investment strategists to design Ideal Portfolios, Managed Account constructs, Asset Allocation and core/satellite fund strategies to utilise with Investment Consultants and Wealth Managers.
Their work goes to ensuring we don't just invest funds based on thoughts and prayers.
But hey, what would I know.
Pommy said:
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.In addition in some countries there are stamp duties on the value of vehicle transfers, values of which will fall and therefore affect funding requirements further. And yes, Government incomes are acutely affected by investment markets, not just taxes.
So forward planning revenue falls is absolutely the domain of Automotive Industry analysts...used and new cars.
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
Tomanybikes said:
Deep Thought said:
Pommy said:
So what do you do?
You seem to be missing the point that working with some investment bank analysts doesnt make you or them used car price experts, nor does it make your opinion correct or one that should be deferred to.The analysts present to us their findings which we then work with portfolio and investment strategists to design Ideal Portfolios, Managed Account constructs, Asset Allocation and core/satellite fund strategies to utilise with Investment Consultants and Wealth Managers.
Their work goes to ensuring we don't just invest funds based on thoughts and prayers.
But hey, what would I know.
So what do you do?
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