Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)
Discussion
john41901 said:
Or does it, maybe the 65% is their assessment of the real demand once the cost of living price hikes finish kicking in…
As always the spiel on here and denial of reality is truly exceptional but good luck guys, will all look a little different come Jan.
This and a few other comments are becoming emotional rather than rational. There is clearly going to be a cost of living impact but this will only affect a portion of society. There will be a recession as broader confidence wobbles however this is only one side of the equation. As always the spiel on here and denial of reality is truly exceptional but good luck guys, will all look a little different come Jan.
There are a few industry representatives on here telling it like it is, not burying their head in the sand as you're suggesting. They work for manufacturers or dealers and giving useful insights to the supply constraints that are very real. The constraints are now primarily driven by the Ukraine war which is still sadly alive and kicking.
I work in wholescale procurement some of which involves buying road vehicles but also in the aviation sector. We're talking annual spend of circa 100m quid. As such over supply and price reductions would be very welcome as you can imagine but they're not happening and won't be for the foreseeable future.
Supply constraints are impacting strategies across all pillars with longer asset retention, parts availability increasing downtime and unpredictable uptime guarantees. To suggest manufacturers are artificially holding back supply at the moment is not credible but could be an option in the future if demand dictates. We're nowhere near that right now.
Venisonpie said:
This and a few other comments are becoming emotional rather than rational. There is clearly going to be a cost of living impact but this will only affect a portion of society. There will be a recession as broader confidence wobbles however this is only one side of the equation.
There are a few industry representatives on here telling it like it is, not burying their head in the sand as you're suggesting. They work for manufacturers or dealers and giving useful insights to the supply constraints that are very real. The constraints are now primarily driven by the Ukraine war which is still sadly alive and kicking.
I work in wholescale procurement some of which involves buying road vehicles but also in the aviation sector. We're talking annual spend of circa 100m quid. As such over supply and price reductions would be very welcome as you can imagine but they're not happening and won't be for the foreseeable future.
Supply constraints are impacting strategies across all pillars with longer asset retention, parts availability increasing downtime and unpredictable uptime guarantees. To suggest manufacturers are artificially holding back supply at the moment is not credible but could be an option in the future if demand dictates. We're nowhere near that right now.
Think the proportion of society that it will affect is largely than you might realise, and it will include business, too. Are your predictions based on demand for vans and cars staying the same as now? There isn’t going to be the same demand levels. Inflation is into double figures now at 10.1%, so cost pressures are increasing. There are a few industry representatives on here telling it like it is, not burying their head in the sand as you're suggesting. They work for manufacturers or dealers and giving useful insights to the supply constraints that are very real. The constraints are now primarily driven by the Ukraine war which is still sadly alive and kicking.
I work in wholescale procurement some of which involves buying road vehicles but also in the aviation sector. We're talking annual spend of circa 100m quid. As such over supply and price reductions would be very welcome as you can imagine but they're not happening and won't be for the foreseeable future.
Supply constraints are impacting strategies across all pillars with longer asset retention, parts availability increasing downtime and unpredictable uptime guarantees. To suggest manufacturers are artificially holding back supply at the moment is not credible but could be an option in the future if demand dictates. We're nowhere near that right now.
There’s sadly increased talk of businesses making job cuts or going to the wall as a result of energy prices. I don’t think new vehicles are going to be at the top of their lists.
johnnyBv8 said:
Vroomer said:
From the BBC today:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Inflation drives fastest fall in real pay on record
Pay has fallen further behind the rising cost of living, according the latest official data.
While average wages rose 4.7% between April and June, that was outpaced by inflation - or price rises - which is growing at a much faster pace.
As a result, the "real value" of pay fell by 3%, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Household budgets are being hit by soaring energy bills as well as higher food and fuel costs.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
How much longer can the car market continue to defy economic gravity?
Those are quite odd stats… 4.7% ave salary increase over that period equates to around 19% annually. This would outpace inflation. Presumably misquoting or misinterpreting ONS data by the BBC? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Inflation drives fastest fall in real pay on record
Pay has fallen further behind the rising cost of living, according the latest official data.
While average wages rose 4.7% between April and June, that was outpaced by inflation - or price rises - which is growing at a much faster pace.
As a result, the "real value" of pay fell by 3%, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Household budgets are being hit by soaring energy bills as well as higher food and fuel costs.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
How much longer can the car market continue to defy economic gravity?
Given inflation is accepted to be temporary, chasing it with wage rises is risky - unless people accept salary reductions as price of living falls again.
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
BlackR8 said:
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Not really a great time to use that barometer as its school holsSo whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
lord trumpton said:
BlackR8 said:
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Not really a great time to use that barometer as its school holsSo whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
BlackR8 said:
lord trumpton said:
BlackR8 said:
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Not really a great time to use that barometer as its school holsSo whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
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Fusion777 said:
Think the proportion of society that it will affect is largely than you might realise, and it will include business, too. Are your predictions based on demand for vans and cars staying the same as now? There isn’t going to be the same demand levels. Inflation is into double figures now at 10.1%, so cost pressures are increasing.
There’s sadly increased talk of businesses making job cuts or going to the wall as a result of energy prices. I don’t think new vehicles are going to be at the top of their lists.
I haven't made a prediction for demand, I've given an insight from a commercial buyers view. What I do predict is some people will be impacted by the cost of living and the Country will dip into recession. There’s sadly increased talk of businesses making job cuts or going to the wall as a result of energy prices. I don’t think new vehicles are going to be at the top of their lists.
Under normal supply volumes the price of used vehicles would have crashed but we're not under normal supply conditions. As such the supply/demand equation is going to take a long time to deliver pre pandemic pricing (if it ever does) which is where this all started.
The reason for the rise in cost of living is more or less the same reason new car prices and subsequently used car prices are high. War in Ukraine restricting energy, materials and components causing market prices in those sectors to soar.
BlackR8 said:
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Alternatively, cars aren't selling fast, it's just that people are not putting their cars on the market because either they can't afford to change, or they've tried selling previously with no success, so have kept the car rather than cut the price.So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Vroomer said:
BlackR8 said:
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Alternatively, cars aren't selling fast, it's just that people are not putting their cars on the market because either they can't afford to change, or they've tried selling previously with no success, so have kept the car rather than cut the price.So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Maybe they want to sell, but can't afford the advert...
Or traders are holding back, incase they flood the market. Its a trade conspiracy against the unsuspecting public. They don't fool me...
In the trade so can speak realistically from a traders point of view.
Demand this year has certainly fallen but we are still doing the numbers over and above what we did prior to covid. (2019)
June July were average but this month we are on for our best ever month and demand is really high. We literally cannot get stock fast enough. Stock price has fallen a little but still higher than pre covid.
We average around 40 units a month.
We have done into the 40s every month. June and July were 33 and 34.
August we are on 39 with 2 weeks still to play. Best we have ever achieved is 60.
We do cars and bikes, stock 30 cars and 30 bikes.
Demand this year has certainly fallen but we are still doing the numbers over and above what we did prior to covid. (2019)
June July were average but this month we are on for our best ever month and demand is really high. We literally cannot get stock fast enough. Stock price has fallen a little but still higher than pre covid.
We average around 40 units a month.
We have done into the 40s every month. June and July were 33 and 34.
August we are on 39 with 2 weeks still to play. Best we have ever achieved is 60.
We do cars and bikes, stock 30 cars and 30 bikes.
coxy0072004 said:
In the trade so can speak realistically from a traders point of view.
Demand this year has certainly fallen but we are still doing the numbers over and above what we did prior to covid. (2019)
June July were average but this month we are on for our best ever month and demand is really high. We literally cannot get stock fast enough. Stock price has fallen a little but still higher than pre covid.
We average around 40 units a month.
We have done into the 40s every month. June and July were 33 and 34.
August we are on 39 with 2 weeks still to play. Best we have ever achieved is 60.
We do cars and bikes, stock 30 cars and 30 bikes.
Interesting, as this is the general sense I was getting as well from tracking a few of the car models that I am considering as my next buy but also looking at the overall autotrader stock levels which have been falling more recently.Demand this year has certainly fallen but we are still doing the numbers over and above what we did prior to covid. (2019)
June July were average but this month we are on for our best ever month and demand is really high. We literally cannot get stock fast enough. Stock price has fallen a little but still higher than pre covid.
We average around 40 units a month.
We have done into the 40s every month. June and July were 33 and 34.
August we are on 39 with 2 weeks still to play. Best we have ever achieved is 60.
We do cars and bikes, stock 30 cars and 30 bikes.
coxy0072004 said:
In the trade so can speak realistically from a traders point of view.
Demand this year has certainly fallen but we are still doing the numbers over and above what we did prior to covid. (2019)
June July were average but this month we are on for our best ever month and demand is really high. We literally cannot get stock fast enough. Stock price has fallen a little but still higher than pre covid.
We average around 40 units a month.
We have done into the 40s every month. June and July were 33 and 34.
August we are on 39 with 2 weeks still to play. Best we have ever achieved is 60.
We do cars and bikes, stock 30 cars and 30 bikes.
It is very much the same here in Australia, prices have actually risen on used vehicles(again).People are gravitating towards late model used vehicles.Wait times on new vehicles is pretty long.Toyota, especially RAV4 Hybrid is over 12month wait,Corolla Hybrid @ least six months.New Ford Ranger has a 17,000 order backlog.Mazda seems to be getting on top of the issue.Honda’s new HRV Hybrid is now out to ten month wait.A lot of dealer ‘price gouging’ going on.Ford dealers charging outrageous delivery fees.A lot of people who have bought new vehicles are actually trying to move them on & cash in on a profit.Interesting times.Demand this year has certainly fallen but we are still doing the numbers over and above what we did prior to covid. (2019)
June July were average but this month we are on for our best ever month and demand is really high. We literally cannot get stock fast enough. Stock price has fallen a little but still higher than pre covid.
We average around 40 units a month.
We have done into the 40s every month. June and July were 33 and 34.
August we are on 39 with 2 weeks still to play. Best we have ever achieved is 60.
We do cars and bikes, stock 30 cars and 30 bikes.
BlackR8 said:
I have been keeping an eye on the number of cars for sale on autotrader and from what I can see the last few weeks the number of cars for sale is falling. A couple of months ago the number of cars available were climbing weekly getting to over 450k cars IIRC but the last few weeks have seen the number fall steadily down to around 430k cars and still falling.
So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
I was looking at the numbers last August and they are up on that:So whilst there seems to be a lot of chat at the moment about demand dropping and dealers being stuck with stock, this is only one data point but this suggests to me anyway that cars are still selling faster than they are becoming available.
Currently I am seeing a softening in prices, and on ebay cars are fetching around (or a bit above) pre-pandemic prices on auctions.
My prediction (for sub £20k not very rare used car market): prices are going to drop, but they will land near pre pandemic times. People who really wanted them bought them, the other people who can afford them can wait a bit. We will also see deprecation for the first time in 2 years on cars, where older cars are getting cheaper.
(feel free to quote this message in 6-9 months time, and laugh at my prediction).
As an example, I bought my leggy VW Eos 2.0 TFSI for £1800 at one of the lockdowns. It was more than pre pandemic, but I had no other choice due to life situation. Currently I could sell it for around £1300-400 which is fairs.
I expect to see some older big engined performance cars to drop in price more, as the tax+fuel+living costs should price out people who could afford them a year ago, but not anymore. But for the rest, if you need a car you need a car.
My prediction (for sub £20k not very rare used car market): prices are going to drop, but they will land near pre pandemic times. People who really wanted them bought them, the other people who can afford them can wait a bit. We will also see deprecation for the first time in 2 years on cars, where older cars are getting cheaper.
(feel free to quote this message in 6-9 months time, and laugh at my prediction).
As an example, I bought my leggy VW Eos 2.0 TFSI for £1800 at one of the lockdowns. It was more than pre pandemic, but I had no other choice due to life situation. Currently I could sell it for around £1300-400 which is fairs.
I expect to see some older big engined performance cars to drop in price more, as the tax+fuel+living costs should price out people who could afford them a year ago, but not anymore. But for the rest, if you need a car you need a car.
Johner said:
rotaryjam said:
towards boring electric cars
You forgot to say dirtier than advertised, in front of your 'boring electric cars'How much is a recharge at a public charging point going to cost after October?
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