Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[Earthdweller]

greggy50 said:

Its mad and personally I need to wait 12-18 months now and see what the maket does so picked up a Z4 SI for £3k which ironically has probably gone up a grand as well...

A Z4 Si for £3k ?

Even the ropiest ones haven’t dropped below about £5k and decent roadsters are pushing £9k and Coupes over £10k

That’s some bargain there

[nickfrog]

ghost83 said:

I find it all crazy that people have the money to pay more for cars and houses during a pandemic
(...)
So I honestly find it amazing that ppl are spending the way they are!
(...)
I just find it reckless that people are willing to spend the way they are!

We don't actually know who is spending what, it's possible that some don't have any financial issues. We actually need them to spend money to restart the economy and bring growth to pay for our national debt.

[cidered77]

Fast Bug said:

ghost83 said:

I find it all crazy that people have the money to pay more for cars and houses during a pandemic

Yet I read that upto 200,000 employees will lose their jobs with extension of the restrictions many businesses are struggling come end of September if furlough does end it’s still predicted a lot of staff will be let go!

So I honestly find it amazing that ppl are spending the way they are!

I’m personally not! being self employed my business hasn’t got any help when we locked down in November I was living on savings till may! My personal priority is to build up my savings for this autumn/winter

I just find it reckless that people are willing to spend the way they are! Even if people have had grants or bounce back loans it’s all to pay back at some point! This high can’t go on forever and it’s got to come crashing down at some point

This maybe a sweeping generalisation, but most of the people still furloughed are younger or lower income people who more than likely wouldn't be buying a new house or car either way. Many people have saved a fair chunk of money on travel costs/no holidays/not going out/not buying lunch at work. Quite a few companies have told their staff that they won't be back in the office 5 days a week in the future as well, quite a few of my customers will be office based for only 2 or 3 days a week.

Covid in that respect has been pretty random/pretty cruel.

Couple took over the pub a few hundred meters from our house a few months before Covid - already taking a financial punt you assume - of course, they're not in the pub trade anymore. People in service massively affected, but plenty of industries where there hasnt been much impact at all. I know some small business owners who were massively impacted, but propped up by gov payments and rates help, etc - some doing even better now than before; some nearly bankrupted. Is down to chance, but on the whole - i think there are a lot of people especially those in stable corporate jobs who , have saved loads on holidays and going out - aren't going to be commuting as much anymore in the future, so have used the time to rethink. VC calls in 2021 are punctuated by the sound of building work for me - construction is going nuts at the moment; that and people moaning at the start about complications of house hunting!

Also doesn't need a huge number of people to make a shift in the market. All those clickbait headlines on bog roll last year - daily mail loved a headline of people with loads in their trolly, but in reality - shortages were just driven by majority of people thinking "ooh, i better do a bigger shop this time"; and that's all it took to break supply chains - a 5-15% increase in demand (More or Less did a great piece on this).

Embarrassed to admit that working in telecommunications, i've "had a good war" - nobody got ill, mum and her partner the only people in the family to get it and they got past it; couple of cars added to the collection and an extension going on. Definitely more luck than judgement tho... under no illusions about that!

So it won't be reckless in most cases - just natural supply/demand/what happens when people have more money.

[Sheepshanks]

spreadsheet monkey said:

ghost83 said:

I find it all crazy that people have the money to pay more for cars and houses during a pandemic

The pandemic has been "asymmetric" - it hasn't hit everyone equally. Plenty of people in tech and professional industries have kept the same levels of income, while spending less on commuting and holidays.

...not to mention everyone in the public sector. Think that's nudging 20% of the workforce now - probably higher in some parts of the country.

[The spinner of plates]

ghost83 said:

I find it all crazy that people have the money to pay more for cars and houses during a pandemic

Yet I read that upto 200,000 employees will lose their jobs with extension of the restrictions many businesses are struggling come end of September if furlough does end it’s still predicted a lot of staff will be let go!

So I honestly find it amazing that ppl are spending the way they are!

I’m personally not! being self employed my business hasn’t got any help when we locked down in November I was living on savings till may! My personal priority is to build up my savings for this autumn/winter

I just find it reckless that people are willing to spend the way they are! Even if people have had grants or bounce back loans it’s all to pay back at some point! This high can’t go on forever and it’s got to come crashing down at some point

The pandemic has been a mixed bag.

Some have had businesses that have flourished.. and had very low outgoings due to lockdown.
Plenty sitting on decent cash reserves right now.

And you can't take it when you go.. which many people think now more than even having lost people in the last year or so.

[Deep Thought]

The spinner of plates said:

ghost83 said:

I find it all crazy that people have the money to pay more for cars and houses during a pandemic

Yet I read that upto 200,000 employees will lose their jobs with extension of the restrictions many businesses are struggling come end of September if furlough does end it’s still predicted a lot of staff will be let go!

So I honestly find it amazing that ppl are spending the way they are!

I’m personally not! being self employed my business hasn’t got any help when we locked down in November I was living on savings till may! My personal priority is to build up my savings for this autumn/winter

I just find it reckless that people are willing to spend the way they are! Even if people have had grants or bounce back loans it’s all to pay back at some point! This high can’t go on forever and it’s got to come crashing down at some point

The pandemic has been a mixed bag.

Some have had businesses that have flourished.. and had very low outgoings due to lockdown.
Plenty sitting on decent cash reserves right now.

And you can't take it when you go.. which many people think now more than even having lost people in the last year or so.

Agreed

Considerable amount of people have been working from home, so theres an automatic saving on commuting / fuel costs. Then theres the tenner a day saving for many on a couple of cups of starbucks coffee (or equivalent) and a sandwich meal deal for lunch. Car usage / wear and tear / maintenance down, not able to go out so another saving there in terms of weekend spend, not being able to get away on holiday, so saving £,£££s there for a typical family.

Those on furlough had been getting 80% of their take home pay so probably no worse off when you factor in commuting costs, spend at work for lunches etc.

Many people wanting to "treat themselves" after a tough year. Cant yet realistically go on holiday, so have money to spend...

[Court_S]

cidered77 said:

Covid in that respect has been pretty random/pretty cruel.

Couple took over the pub a few hundred meters from our house a few months before Covid - already taking a financial punt you assume - of course, they're not in the pub trade anymore. People in service massively affected, but plenty of industries where there hasnt been much impact at all. I know some small business owners who were massively impacted, but propped up by gov payments and rates help, etc - some doing even better now than before; some nearly bankrupted. Is down to chance, but on the whole - i think there are a lot of people especially those in stable corporate jobs who , have saved loads on holidays and going out - aren't going to be commuting as much anymore in the future, so have used the time to rethink. VC calls in 2021 are punctuated by the sound of building work for me - construction is going nuts at the moment; that and people moaning at the start about complications of house hunting!

Also doesn't need a huge number of people to make a shift in the market. All those clickbait headlines on bog roll last year - daily mail loved a headline of people with loads in their trolly, but in reality - shortages were just driven by majority of people thinking "ooh, i better do a bigger shop this time"; and that's all it took to break supply chains - a 5-15% increase in demand (More or Less did a great piece on this).

Embarrassed to admit that working in telecommunications, i've "had a good war" - nobody got ill, mum and her partner the only people in the family to get it and they got past it; couple of cars added to the collection and an extension going on. Definitely more luck than judgement tho... under no illusions about that!

So it won't be reckless in most cases - just natural supply/demand/what happens when people have more money.

Much the same here too; no one I know has been ill, I’ve been busy as has my other half. I had a hefty pay cut for a while (20% and dropped to a four day week for a few months before getting 10% back and the final 10% in November last year).

I work in construction. Our retail clients just stopped everything overnight (I was in the retail team so it was squeaky bum time at first) but I was moved to a different team and have largely been busier than I have for a while now. Working on public sector projects has been an eye opener for sure. I have a good pipeline of work personally for the next year or so and as a company we seem to be pretty damn busy.

However, people I have worked with for years at other companies were less fortunate with many getting made redundant as soon as the retail work dried up.

The change to working form more more made me reassess my car situation but ultimately the sort of stuff that I want to move onto is too expensive so I’ve gone relatively cheap for a while. Still enjoying it though. I’m commuting less and not spending money on lunches etc. Most of my colleagues are the same, so those who have safe jobs etc do have some cash for stuff like bigger houses, nicer cars etc. The flip side is that for many, the pandemic has been pretty disastrous.

[ChocolateFrog]

ghost83 said:

I find it all crazy that people have the money to pay more for cars and houses during a pandemic

Yet I read that upto 200,000 employees will lose their jobs with extension of the restrictions many businesses are struggling come end of September if furlough does end it’s still predicted a lot of staff will be let go!

So I honestly find it amazing that ppl are spending the way they are!

I’m personally not! being self employed my business hasn’t got any help when we locked down in November I was living on savings till may! My personal priority is to build up my savings for this autumn/winter

I just find it reckless that people are willing to spend the way they are! Even if people have had grants or bounce back loans it’s all to pay back at some point! This high can’t go on forever and it’s got to come crashing down at some point

But many times more people than that won't have lost their jobs and will have been spending significantly less to boot.

Most of the people that will or have lost their jobs are in low paying jobs anyway that won't trouble the higher end of the used car market.

[PTF]

Personally the last 15 months have been an opportunity to get my garage and finances in order.

• I had 4 or 5 motorbikes getting very little use.
• I had a diesel commuting car that was on 0% finance, that i suddenly had little use for.
• I had a boxster that i was hardly using that was costing quite a bit in maintenance.
• I was wanting a better track car to replace my MX5.
• I had a small amount of personal debt that was lingering and annoying me.

Fast forward to now

• The boxster sold for what i paid for it 3 yrs previously
• I sold the diesel commuter for a decent price
• I have 1 motorbike, which covers my needs, The others sold for good money.
• I have managed to find an M135i for a lower "pre-covid-madness" price and am v happy with it as a daily car now my mileage has reduced.
• I have a clio 200 for track use
• I'm completely debt free

Lower running costs, more disposable income, and high used car/bike prices - it's all been great for getting things re-organised!

Granted i realise i'm very lucky to have been able to just shift to working from home with nothing but a positive impact on my monthly finances.

Edited by PTF on Tuesday 15th June 12:33

[jimPH]

Fast Bug said:

jimPH said:

Fast Bug said:

I sure hope it doesn’t last for 4 years!

Well quite, but it doesn't just get to 4 years and lose most of its value, that's telling me normal rules apply. The dealer certainly doesn't have confidence that the current higher prices will enable them to make better offers.

The dealer won't set the final payment, they funder sets that. The idea is that at the end of the agreement you should have some equity, I'm not sure I'd want to be brave on an RV for what will be an oddball vehicle*.

If it's on still on my car listing when my CLS goes back I'll get one, so I'm not knocking your choice of car

It's for the wife. 4 kids so I need 7 seats, but she can't handle a massive car. This seems to fit the bill. Personally I never PCP, I'm just checking what the dealer thinks it will be worth so I can judge the best time to buy. 12 month examples should be well priced I'd of thought. In 12 months of course.

[greggy50]

Earthdweller said:

greggy50 said:

Its mad and personally I need to wait 12-18 months now and see what the maket does so picked up a Z4 SI for £3k which ironically has probably gone up a grand as well...

A Z4 Si for £3k ?

Even the ropiest ones haven’t dropped below about £5k and decent roadsters are pushing £9k and Coupes over £10k

That’s some bargain there

It was the 2.5 SI not the 3.0 SI which are cheaper. Car cost me £3.1k but managed to get £100 back selling the wheels and buying CSL reps.

It was on 120k miles hence the price but for the money they can't be beaten you can still get a nice 2.5 SI for 5k and mine will probably owe me about 38/3900 when I have painted the front bumper and changed the bushes etc.

[mrdanbartlett]

greggy50 said:

It was the 2.5 SI not the 3.0 SI which are cheaper. Car cost me £3.1k but managed to get £100 back selling the wheels and buying CSL reps.

It was on 120k miles hence the price but for the money they can't be beaten you can still get a nice 2.5 SI for 5k and mine will probably owe me about 38/3900 when I have painted the front bumper and changed the bushes etc.

Blimey. I sold my mint Z4 3.0i about 5 years ago for either £3500 or 4500, I think it was the former. Roof motor was on the way out but it was v good condition, grey, the good wheels, good spec etc.

[Earthdweller]

greggy50 said:

It was the 2.5 SI not the 3.0 SI which are cheaper. Car cost me £3.1k but managed to get £100 back selling the wheels and buying CSL reps.

It was on 120k miles hence the price but for the money they can't be beaten you can still get a nice 2.5 SI for 5k and mine will probably owe me about 38/3900 when I have painted the front bumper and changed the bushes etc.

]

Still a bargain there I reckon and just nicely run in

[e-honda]

Who sells a car for £3100?
I know that £100 is real money, but is it largely symbolic?
Would you ever get a car dealer who's been knocked down that close to £3k but wouldn't go all the way?
I'm sure your probably a better negotiator than me and I'd have probably been paying £3250+ but I do wonder.

[greggy50]

e-honda said:

Who sells a car for £3100?
I know that £100 is real money, but is it largely symbolic?
Would you ever get a car dealer who's been knocked down that close to £3k but wouldn't go all the way?
I'm sure your probably a better negotiator than me and I'd have probably been paying £3250+ but I do wonder.

Not sure to be honest, if was up for £3,150 and I got the £50 knocked off to cover my train fair to collect it...

As it was it was a lot cheaper than anything else similar on the market so I just wanted to make sure I secured the car.

I would think I could probably get 4.5 for it easily enough given the market at the moment and the fact it has a few desirable mods such as the roofnmotor relocation, genuine wind deflectors and a gap tech roof module etc.

These really are the only cheap convertibles left now if you want something bigger than a 4 pot. Even an S2000 or Mk1 Boxter are double the price for a decent one.

[johnnyBv8]

e-honda said:

Who sells a car for £3100?
I know that £100 is real money, but is it largely symbolic?
Would you ever get a car dealer who's been knocked down that close to £3k but wouldn't go all the way?
I'm sure your probably a better negotiator than me and I'd have probably been paying £3250+ but I do wonder.

I don’t think that the £100 over £3000 is any more or less valid than any other £100 in the price. Presumably £3100 was just the number that both parties were comfortable enough with to agree a deal. There are a myriad of reasons why a seller wouldn’t just round down to the nearest £1000.

In terms of asking whether a car dealer would ever get to £3100 and not drop to £3000, of course they would - every dealer has a bottom line price taking into account their costs, value of the car, and their perceived ability to sell.

[jonwm]

Good example of how the market hasn't been hit by COVID.

Friends bought a 67 plate Kuga ST in January 2020 for £16.4k from a car supermarket type place, just traded it in and got £17k against a £22k X3.

So in 18 months give or take they have "made" £600 on a fairly common car with another 8k miles on the clock.

[Hub]

jonwm said:

Good example of how the market hasn't been hit by COVID.

Friends bought a 67 plate Kuga ST in January 2020 for £16.4k from a car supermarket type place, just traded it in and got £17k against a £22k X3.

So in 18 months give or take they have "made" £600 on a fairly common car with another 8k miles on the clock.

Ah, but how much would the X3 have been in Jan 2020?

[mrdanbartlett]

Hub said:

Ah, but how much would the X3 have been in Jan 2020?

Exactly! If you are trading up then its hitting your pocket.

Also I've noticed a supply drop, usually there are around 80-90 w205 c63 saloons for sale, now its more like 50-60.

[Deep Thought]

Our 2019 M140i has just broken £25K on WBAC! Amazing for a car we gave £28,200 new in Mar 2019.

21-Nov-19 £20,500
20-Mar-20 £12,270
10-Apr-20 Declined to offer
10-May-20 Declined to offer
08-Jun-20 £18,000
22-Jun-20 £19,000
14-Jul-20 £19,500
29-Jul-20 £21,000
2-Aug-20 £21,500
19-Aug-20 £21,680
4-Sep-20 £23,000
14-Sep-20 £23,000
30-Sep-20 £22,000
7-Oct-20 £21,570
23-Oct-20 £21,710
5-Nov-20 Declined to offer
19-Nov-20 £20,790
15-Dec-20 £21,340
18-Jan-21 £20,210
24-Feb-21 £20,410
06-Mar-21 £19,445
18-Apr-21 £21,405
08-May-21 £23,240
18-May-21 £23,700
27-May-21 £24,500
01-Jun-21 £24,710
19-Jun-21 £25,210