ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?
Discussion
jjwilde said:
Oh wow you found ONE broken roadster (out of thousands). Firstly it isn't unsellable it will easily sell and secondly the battery will be broken due to some sort of user error, it's likely it's been sat in storage (low mileage) for years and not charged. Consider it like never changing the oil on a car.
There are plenty of original roadsters still working just fine, you can also pay Tesla to upgrade the battery to modern tech giving it a 300+ mile range.
And on top of all that the roadster has held its value near perfectly after 10 years.
This is for a Tesla Roadster, presumably quite a desirable & mould breaking car. There are plenty of original roadsters still working just fine, you can also pay Tesla to upgrade the battery to modern tech giving it a 300+ mile range.
And on top of all that the roadster has held its value near perfectly after 10 years.
How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
volvos60s60 said:
This is for a Tesla Roadster, presumably quite a desirable & mould breaking car.
How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
But the batteries are expected to last 20 years - and then have a second life as storage batteries?How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
It's likely the car will fall apart around the battery after 20 years - then the car will still have decent value due to the battery.
CheesecakeRunner said:
volvos60s60 said:
jjwilde said:
They are certainly holding their value pretty well at 8 years old right now!
That is because the penny has not dropped yet. As I said yesterday, there is a 2010 Tesla Roadster on A/T at the moment, 11000 miles only but needs new batteries at around €15000 for the batteries alone, making the car effectively unsaleable.https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202007101...
It's a very limited run, specialist sports car, from the earliest days of electric motoring. It's not at all representative of what the state of modern batteries will be in ten years time. The advert also doesn't say why it needs a new battery. For all we know, the pack could have suffered accidental damage, when you're assuming its somehow worn out.
Very early EV tech and those batteries know for failure. Seem to remember reading somewhere if not in use for any extended period they need to be kept on trickle charge or problems are likely.
Seems a fair price despite the work required and the updated battery would be a major bonus so not sure why it's considered 'unsaleable'?
volvos60s60 said:
This is for a Tesla Roadster, presumably quite a desirable & mould breaking car.
How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
Again with very early battery tech. Not comparable with current EV's and no reason to think batteries will only last 10 years based on the degradation seen on high mileage examples.How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
Edited by SWoll on Tuesday 9th February 10:46
EV's will become a subscription model anyway if big tech gets its way. It would not surprise me if eventually the UK government disallowed ownership of private vehicles. Outsourced EV's to a few companies and then maybe ration EV's usage out based on their ideal of social justice. Its a win for government as they get more money and control.
jjwilde said:
volvos60s60 said:
This is for a Tesla Roadster, presumably quite a desirable & mould breaking car.
How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
But the batteries are expected to last 20 years - and then have a second life as storage batteries?How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
It's likely the car will fall apart around the battery after 20 years - then the car will still have decent value due to the battery.
I watched an article on You Tube recently involving a dealer who specialises in Teslas. He's bought and sold a number of the Model S with well over 100K miles on them. Made the interesting point that due to re-gen, many are on original brake discs at 100K. The batteries have a long warranty I believe (10 or 12 years), but it seems the Tesla Model S certainly does go the distance.
volvos60s60 said:
This is for a Tesla Roadster, presumably quite a desirable & mould breaking car.
How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
Taking 2012 Nissan Leaf as an example with a 24kWh battery... They're still selling for £4.5-5k on Autotrader. Not bad for a car that never had much range, or performance and supposedly is a ticking time bomb for a £6,000 battery swap, is it?How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
The reality is, there's a growing industry for keeping these cars going. In some cases a cell.or module within the battery is failing, and it can be replaced and the battery "rebalanced" for a lot less than a new battery.
Evanivitch said:
volvos60s60 said:
This is for a Tesla Roadster, presumably quite a desirable & mould breaking car.
How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
Taking 2012 Nissan Leaf as an example with a 24kWh battery... They're still selling for £4.5-5k on Autotrader. Not bad for a car that never had much range, or performance and supposedly is a ticking time bomb for a £6,000 battery swap, is it?How will a 10 year old all electric SUV or family hatchback, such as the VW id3 suffer when it's batteries need replacement - it won't be worth doing & it will have started depreciating quite badly well before the 10 year mark once the replacement battery issue becomes more widely known as a ticking clock problem - hence the comparison with selling a flat on a short lease
The reality is, there's a growing industry for keeping these cars going. In some cases a cell.or module within the battery is failing, and it can be replaced and the battery "rebalanced" for a lot less than a new battery.
Electronic fuel injection, catalytic converters, turbos, dual mass flywheels and all manner of other things have been supposed to send otherwise serviceable vehicles to early graves. The reality is, it hasn't happened. As long as there's a market for old, cheap cars, there will be a market for products and services that can keep them running on a sensible budget.
Biggest issue the Model S seems to have as it ages, based on the owners I've spoken to, is the brakes needing attention due to lack of use. They seize up because regen takes care of pretty much all normal stopping duties. Battery capacity remains well into the 90s in percentage terms past 100,000 miles.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
Terminator X said:
You might be disappointed to hear of all the pollution caused by heavy industry etc.
Plus pollution in the UK is pretty much zero compared to India etc.
TX.
I'm not sure what heavy industry, which I live nowhere near, has to do with street level pollution from cars? Even if you do nothing with industry, removing ICE will remove a significant amount of street level pollution. Plus pollution in the UK is pretty much zero compared to India etc.
TX.
Also, what about India? My kids don't breath the air in India.
Why the irrational and irrelevant arguments?
TX.
what's required is a universal battery cartridge which can be replaced at a filling station in a minute or two.
You could even stock a couple of different sizes similar to having multiple fuels at the pumps as at present. i.e. so your supermini takes a small battery pack, big limo takes something larger and commercial vehicles take the biggest type.
The 2030 ban is ridiculous. It's the sort of thing the government should have no business in dictating but in this day and age where you vote for a 'small government' conservative party and you end up with a new labour continuum what else are we to expect.
What should happen is for electric cars to be available and the infrastructure to grow organically. If something happens to liquid fuels which naturally pushes people towards electric then they'll go voluntarily. Electric is already a fair proposition if you can afford one and if your life is organised such that it isn't going to inconvenience you.
You could even stock a couple of different sizes similar to having multiple fuels at the pumps as at present. i.e. so your supermini takes a small battery pack, big limo takes something larger and commercial vehicles take the biggest type.
The 2030 ban is ridiculous. It's the sort of thing the government should have no business in dictating but in this day and age where you vote for a 'small government' conservative party and you end up with a new labour continuum what else are we to expect.
What should happen is for electric cars to be available and the infrastructure to grow organically. If something happens to liquid fuels which naturally pushes people towards electric then they'll go voluntarily. Electric is already a fair proposition if you can afford one and if your life is organised such that it isn't going to inconvenience you.
Interesting thread, with most posters so far saying ‘just do it.” Also government initiatives have a habit of stalling or of being diluted. Think of the entire green agenda and the way the airline industry fudged it; think of Mercedes making Smarts at a loss to improve their green credentials; think of peoples love of Mustangs. Easy to spend others’ money, but I wouldn’t worry. I might even bet on this not happening lock, stock and barrel in a 2030.
Edited by Lester H on Tuesday 9th February 15:39
I think you'd be safer betting on a fudge as they don't like U-turns.
A good one might be to state that existing models can continue to sell but no new ICE models may be introduced. So if we're on the MK16 Focus by then they'll just have to stick with that design but can sell as many as they want until they scrap it.
A good one might be to state that existing models can continue to sell but no new ICE models may be introduced. So if we're on the MK16 Focus by then they'll just have to stick with that design but can sell as many as they want until they scrap it.
I've argued this before, but I can't see any future for what we today call cars as anything other than a 'personal transportation device'. PTD
Us 'actual' car enthusiasts...... just so last century!
As we are all going to be pushed into BV vehicles, then logically, the powers that be will take away (what us PH'ers call) the 'driving' element of all vehicles on the road. PTDs will be GPS / computer controlled - there will be no driver involvement.
And indeed we are just a couple of (car) generations away from permanently (no option on the matter) autonomous vehicles.
Even today you can have GPS speed limiters, why not GPS acceleration limiters, electronics to actually prevent you overtaking anything (on the grounds that 'Big Brother' will determine the optimum speed for any given road / road conditions)?
I find it amusing that the 'early adopters' profess such enthusiasm for BEVs, as they bang on about the performance and the (subsidised) economy of running them - but 'they' don't acknowledge the direction of travel - that 'driving' is to become mere 'transport'.
As efficient transportation, BEVs are so much better than ICE cars.
But don't expect them to be regarded as anything other than 'white goods' - flashy, latest tech then obsolete in what 5 years.
And, as others have said they will subscription only or, even more even scarily (for those of us who love our horrible, polluting, unsafe, environmentally damaging, cars) we'll all be going around in Johnny Cabs. (Total Recall)
Us 'actual' car enthusiasts...... just so last century!
As we are all going to be pushed into BV vehicles, then logically, the powers that be will take away (what us PH'ers call) the 'driving' element of all vehicles on the road. PTDs will be GPS / computer controlled - there will be no driver involvement.
And indeed we are just a couple of (car) generations away from permanently (no option on the matter) autonomous vehicles.
Even today you can have GPS speed limiters, why not GPS acceleration limiters, electronics to actually prevent you overtaking anything (on the grounds that 'Big Brother' will determine the optimum speed for any given road / road conditions)?
I find it amusing that the 'early adopters' profess such enthusiasm for BEVs, as they bang on about the performance and the (subsidised) economy of running them - but 'they' don't acknowledge the direction of travel - that 'driving' is to become mere 'transport'.
As efficient transportation, BEVs are so much better than ICE cars.
But don't expect them to be regarded as anything other than 'white goods' - flashy, latest tech then obsolete in what 5 years.
And, as others have said they will subscription only or, even more even scarily (for those of us who love our horrible, polluting, unsafe, environmentally damaging, cars) we'll all be going around in Johnny Cabs. (Total Recall)
alfaspecial said:
I find it amusing that the 'early adopters' profess such enthusiasm for BEVs, as they bang on about the performance and the (subsidised) economy of running them - but 'they' don't acknowledge the direction of travel - that 'driving' is to become mere 'transport'.
er, i bought my EV 5 years ago precisely because it was just "transport". Ridiculously cheap, extremely practical, vitrually depreciation and running cost free transport. This allows me to commute to work in a queue of muppets nose to tail doing 7 mph, in comfort, for such a low amount of money, i can have a 600 bhp toy in the garage for when i actually want to drive.......ejenner said:
I think you'd be safer betting on a fudge as they don't like U-turns.
A good one might be to state that existing models can continue to sell but no new ICE models may be introduced. So if we're on the MK16 Focus by then they'll just have to stick with that design but can sell as many as they want until they scrap it.
So Morgan will be good for another 200 years of ICE.....A good one might be to state that existing models can continue to sell but no new ICE models may be introduced. So if we're on the MK16 Focus by then they'll just have to stick with that design but can sell as many as they want until they scrap it.
Terminator X said:
So you only care about pollution in your street? Green cars are a tiny part of the jigsaw; if every car in the world were suddenly green overnight there would still be plenty of pollution for your kids to choke on.
TX.
So the majority of street level pollution in built up areas (the stuff kids are breathing) isn't down to ICE vehicles then? TX.
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