ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?

[DonkeyApple]

rxe said:

DonkeyApple said:

So a cheap 50 mile range EV on the drive and pre booked hire car once every two months?

It's not ideal and I'd be the first to enjoy the luxury of just having one utility vehicle that did it all but there is already an easy solution to your situation if you did want to use an EV but never have the hassle of stopping to charge.

Sure, there are loads of solutions ranging from hiring a jet to fly him there (with luggage) all the way down to giving him a bicycle with a large basket on the front and telling him to get on with it.

Of course I could hire a car, but why would I want to? I have a perfectly good car today, that will do the journey with ease. I’m just get in it and drive any distance that I want to. Now, politically, EVs are going to be forced on us, but it doesn’t sound like progress to me.

Indeed and I agree. It's just easier. It's not actually a problem or any kind of issue, just a matter of personal convenience.

Plus, hopefully he will have managed to graduate by 2035 anyway.

[Dracoro]

321boost said:

We will be taxed out of petrol cars and forced to EVs or we will still be able to carry on driving our petrol cars ‘no one is forcing us’.

As I have said before, pretty sure in this thread, there won't be overly punitive taxation on old cars as politically it would be very hard to push through as it simply affects the poorest most (who can only afford old used cars, and also many people who aren't even that poor but just like to get the most value out of their cars).

That mistake has been made before (remember it being >£500 for many cars, many of which are normal cars), and following taxation was a lot lower as emission figures went down.

[df76]

Quite surprised that this brand (Jaguar) is changing so quickly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56072019

[Shrimpvende]

Nah, I'm just going to starting to hoard stuff now before prices go crazy. It's accelerated my desire to own a number of cars, whilst I still can. I'm hugely fortunate to be in a position to own, even if temporarily, some of these things, so I'm going to make the most of it while I can. I currently have a new Vantage, which is a great car, but not one I'd want to be 'stuck with' post 2030 as the engine isn't that special.

I can only hope that by 2030 I have an NA V12 Aston (Vantage S most likely), Ferrari F12 (I HAVE to own one of these, even if just for a bit - it's my poster car), I already have a Clio Trophy that I'm never letting go of, I'd like to get a Yaris GR if possible too, a 911 GT3 or Cayman GT4...I've got a fair bit of work to do to get through these whilst I still can! Even if values go the other way and punitive taxes make them worthless in the future I'd still be happy I had them safely tucked away in my garage to play with as and when I like.

If I can do this, I don't care what milk float I have to daily to stay PC. I have a plug in hybrid daily driver now and prefer it over my previous petrol car, in fact a full EV would probably suit me now and I'd happily have one. Taxes would have to be huge or petrol be unavailable before I give up my petrol weekend toys though, I really, really hope that doesn't happen in my lifetime.

[321boost]

Dracoro said:

321boost said:

We will be taxed out of petrol cars and forced to EVs or we will still be able to carry on driving our petrol cars ‘no one is forcing us’.

As I have said before, pretty sure in this thread, there won't be overly punitive taxation on old cars as politically it would be very hard to push through as it simply affects the poorest most (who can only afford old used cars, and also many people who aren't even that poor but just like to get the most value out of their cars).

That mistake has been made before (remember it being >£500 for many cars, many of which are normal cars), and following taxation was a lot lower as emission figures went down.

You’re probably right but impact on poor or people who like to get most value out of their cars/money didn’t stop some cities from implementing CAZ which might start covering euro 5+ Petrol in the future. This is what causes concern.

[anonymous-user]

321boost said:

Max_Torque said:

rodericb said:

What sort of production volume for EV's give that scale where the cost of production equals an ICE car?

equivalence is the quoted point, ie where the same number of EVs is manufactured as EVs. This happens at 50% market penetration, because each EV sold displaces an ICE sale. In the UK where we buy 2M cars a year typically, 1M EV sales reaches equivalence.

The lower BOM is due to the intrinsic parallism of EV powertrains (more parts off the same tooling and process, and with a lower manual labour and energy input), the simpler/quicker assembly process, and the much less onerous development, validation and crucially certification overheads required in order to sell a robust and legal passenger car.

For example, take the crankshaft. Broadly speaking the crankshaft in say a BMW 3 cyl engine is "half" the one fitted to a BMW 6cyl engine. But it's not really. It needs different tooling to hold and machine it, the engine it goes in, and the stresses it experiences are all different, so each engine, the 1.5 3cyl and the 3.0 6 cyl will BOTH have a huge complex development and validation process. And because those engines have tailpipe emissions, they must be certified both for those emissions but also certified for the OnBoard Diagnostics that attempts to ensure those emissions in use are as they should be (because there are a huge number of ways in which an ICE can expirence wear and failure that lead to increasded emissions. So from the machine that does up the big ends to the crate that holds the cranks in storage and transport, to the forging dies, the grinding tooling, even the amount of hot liquid metal and casting mouldings, all are UNIQUE to each engine type.

Now consider a battery cell. A single cell can be used in both a mini sized car with say a 30 kWh battery, and a SUV sized one with say a 100 kWh battery. The only difference is the number of cells fitted. Each battery uses the same,identical part, the tooling is identical, the testing identical, the logistics, certification and warehousing identical. The machine that makes the cells identical, you just build say 3 machines instead of just one (and here the economies of scale start to work at the level of production tooling!!!) to make 3x as many cells.


And it's not just the cells. it works with eMachine laminates, windings, magnets, with power silicon and power conversion components.

You design one part, and uses it across a massive number of vehicles. That is simply not possible for an ICE.

This also drives one interesting (to us petrolheads interested in going fast) embodyment of this process, namely that it is probably cheaper to an OE to have a limited number of physical powertrains, uses in as many platforms as possible with SOFTWARE limiting. Because the losses of an eMachine are so low, you can fit a 300bhp eMachine to a small car, detuned to just 150bhp, and really, there is no significant efficiency loss (unlike putting a 3.0l 6cyl in a mini, where the extra friction and parasitics would render that car non-viable) and if that motor comes off a highly parallel line, it will be cheaper to use it, unchanged, instead of trying to reduce the cost of that individual motor (where the manufacturing overheads out weight the component cost)

This means that we might expect to be able to have greater freedom to modifiy our cars beyond current limitations, where a software modification could unlock potentially a LOT more performance for no efficiency deficit :-)

Doesn’t seem the case with Norway. EV market penetration is more than 50%.

er, without wishing to be rude, i don't think you are really understanding my point! Norway only buy less than 200,000 cars per year. Even if every single one of them was an EV, then the effect on the major OEs in terms of manufacturing percentages would be practically zero. Toyota alone sell about 10 MILLION cars a year, VW 4.3 Million for example!

To get to equivalent manufactuing volume the big OEs need to sell, globally, as many EVs as they currently sell ICEs (global passenger cars sales per year are around 80 MILLION btw.......)

[321boost]

It’s almost hilarious how some on here were saying 3-4 years ago how the range problem will be resolved and we will drive electric cars just like petrol or diesel cars. But now they’re saying “oh well the average person only averages 10 miles a day” so the range doesn’t matter
If someone only does five x 700 mile journeys in a year then their average is “only” 10 miles per day a bit like the BS argument where your car sits mostly and only gets used 5% of the time. It’s that 5% of the time when you need it the most and you have the convenience of it. Otherwise cars would’ve never become popular.
With the coronavirus the mid mileage (commuting) might be killed off anyway and the requirement left behind would be short journeys and LONG journeys. As of right now the range anxiety is a real thing out here in the real world otherwise electric cars would’ve taken over by now.

Range deniers.

Edited by 321boost on Monday 15th February 18:44

[NDA]

Down on the Farm said:

ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?

No. A foot in both camps.

I have a pair of V8's and, recently a Tesla.

Would I buy a new ICE performance car? Absolutely yes. Would I buy a new ICE daily driver? I didn't, I bought a battery appliance.

[anonymous-user]

rxe said:

Of course I could hire a car, but why would I want to?

Hiring the car for the occasionally useage (like you would hire a van to move a large item of furniture for example), means your day to day car can be much better suited to what it needs to do so here are a couple of reasons to buy and EV, and then hire when needed:

1) By driving an EV, you are likely to cut your use of energy for private transport and hence your carbon emissions by around 3 times (in the uk with our current grid mix). Now perhaps you don't GAS about global waming and climate change, but i bet you a tenner when your house is under 10 foot of water and your fuel cost £8 a gallon you will be moaning like a good 'un.....

2) An EV is generally a "nicer" car to drive day to day. Likely to be faster, quieter, easier to drive, more relaxing, and with things like cabin pre-conditioning, simply more practical. If you have off-street parking, then putting in your own charger (which just osts about the same as 4 or 5 tanks of fuel), means you no longer have to spend much time at petrol stations, because your car is already warm and fully charged each morning.

3) An EV is likely to be both significantly cheaper to run (cheap fuel, zero tax, low maintainance etc) but also it looks like they have pretty low depreciation.


Now your profile doesn't say what you drive,so perhaps you will find that you don't "enjoy" driving an EV as much as your current GT3 RS ( ;-) ) But if you actually drive a more normal car, then frankly, most EVs are more fun, more of the time, and certainly much more useable in their performance because they don't shout about it.

So there are three, pretty good reasons to drive an EV today, which you rate as important depends on your circumstances, but the reality is that there are good reasons to buy and drive an EV.

In my case, having owned an EV for coming up to 5 years, it's convient and cheap and saves me so much money i can have a PROPER stupid car in the garage for the weekends. I'm willing to bet my >600bhp, 840 kg silly car is more of a laugh than whatever you drive daily? :-)

[anonymous-user]

321boost said:

. But now they’re saying “oh well the average person only averages 10 miles a day” so the range doesn’t matter

That's not what is being said. It's clear that we, as a society, need to reduce our greedy energy consumption. Moving to electrification for our passenger cars is an extremely good way of doin just that, and comes with practically no downsides and significant upsides.

if we don't take that carrot, then you'll find the next thing is the stick. If climate change proves to be real (and the concensus is that it is indeed real) then we are likely to see as a society enourous limitations to our glutonous consumptions, changes that will make the optional buying of an EV look trivial IMO!

Range is vastly misunderstood by typical car buyers. The one thing i have seen, first hand, time and time again is that the range people think they need, and the range they actually use, is diametrically opposite. Sure, it would be nice to have a car that could do 1,000 miles without refuelling, but "Nice to have" is not "must have". Most EV owners quickly realise that range is in fact not such a big deal, espically once ranges climb over around 200 miles (a lot of EVs today) and the away-from-home fast charging network grows exponentially.


What we ARE saying is that today, a significant proportion of households have two (or more) cars, so one could be replaced with an EV right now (actually, 5 years ago really) for no penalty what-so-ever (and in fact, gains like lower cost, ease of use, and suitability for short journey purpose).

Some people, who do regularly drive long distances, no, they will have to stick to ICEs and hybrids for a bit longer, but actually not that much longer, because the charging network is growing so fast!

[SuperBaaaad]

All the time I can still buy cars with an ICE under the bonnet, I will. We’re a 3+ car household so likely we’ll get an EV at some point but I can’t imagine ever having 3 EVs.

[rxe]

Max_Torque said:

Hiring the car for the occasionally useage (like you would hire a van to move a large item of furniture for example), means your day to day car can be much better suited to what it needs to do so here are a couple of reasons to buy and EV, and then hire when needed:

1) By driving an EV, you are likely to cut your use of energy for private transport and hence your carbon emissions by around 3 times (in the uk with our current grid mix). Now perhaps you don't GAS about global waming and climate change, but i bet you a tenner when your house is under 10 foot of water and your fuel cost £8 a gallon you will be moaning like a good 'un.....

2) An EV is generally a "nicer" car to drive day to day. Likely to be faster, quieter, easier to drive, more relaxing, and with things like cabin pre-conditioning, simply more practical. If you have off-street parking, then putting in your own charger (which just osts about the same as 4 or 5 tanks of fuel), means you no longer have to spend much time at petrol stations, because your car is already warm and fully charged each morning.

3) An EV is likely to be both significantly cheaper to run (cheap fuel, zero tax, low maintainance etc) but also it looks like they have pretty low depreciation.


Now your profile doesn't say what you drive,so perhaps you will find that you don't "enjoy" driving an EV as much as your current GT3 RS ( ;-) ) But if you actually drive a more normal car, then frankly, most EVs are more fun, more of the time, and certainly much more useable in their performance because they don't shout about it.

So there are three, pretty good reasons to drive an EV today, which you rate as important depends on your circumstances, but the reality is that there are good reasons to buy and drive an EV.

In my case, having owned an EV for coming up to 5 years, it's convient and cheap and saves me so much money i can have a PROPER stupid car in the garage for the weekends. I'm willing to bet my >600bhp, 840 kg silly car is more of a laugh than whatever you drive daily? :-)

Sorry, that first sentence is a bit trite. I have several cars, but all of them serve my needs perfectly well in terms of space for passengers and “stuff”. What we’re talking about here is a car that doesn’t go very far without being a pain in the arse. I’m quite happy to hire a van if i want to move something huge as I do that about once a decade. Actually, what I do is pay someone else to move huge things. A car that doesn’t go very far without being a pain in the arse is a bit useless.

I doubt the environment will be well served by my buying a new electric car given my very random usage pattern which ranges from 25K a year some years to almost zero in others - it all depends on where I am working.

I’ve driven a Tesla S quite a lot in Europe. I was underwhelmed. The acceleration is of course comical and very impressive. The claimed quietness is a mirage - of course there is no engine noise, but you can hear the bloody suspension working and rattling away once you’ve taken the white noise of the engine away. Could have been Tesla’s stty build quality as opposed to a generic EV thing. Overall I wasn’t impressed or disappointed, it did its job, I didn’t get out of it thinking “gosh, my current car has to go”.

Maybe I would save money driving an EV, but the first time I sat in a motorway services (the sort of place I haven’t visited for 30 years) charging up, I really wouldn’t care.

[Kawasicki]

My next pair of family vehicles.

A medium sized 5 seat EV (ID3?) with a medium range and a diesel VW Multivan/Mercedes Viano type vehicle with 800km range for long trips or for when I really need the space.

[NMNeil]

bigothunter said:

Max_Torque said:

This means that we might expect to be able to have greater freedom to modifiy our cars beyond current limitations, where a software modification could unlock potentially a LOT more performance for no efficiency deficit :-)

Wonder what the Technischer Überwachungsverein (TÜV) would make of that proposal?

Won't be an issue.
The PCM or it's EV equivalent will be tamper proof, and will possibly brick if any modification to the code is attempted.
https://www.edn.com/32-bit-mcus-boost-in-vehicle-s...

[doogle83]

Shrimpvende said:

Nah, I'm just going to starting to hoard stuff now before prices go crazy. It's accelerated my desire to own a number of cars, whilst I still can. I'm hugely fortunate to be in a position to own, even if temporarily, some of these things, so I'm going to make the most of it while I can. I currently have a new Vantage, which is a great car, but not one I'd want to be 'stuck with' post 2030 as the engine isn't that special.

I can only hope that by 2030 I have an NA V12 Aston (Vantage S most likely), Ferrari F12 (I HAVE to own one of these, even if just for a bit - it's my poster car), I already have a Clio Trophy that I'm never letting go of, I'd like to get a Yaris GR if possible too, a 911 GT3 or Cayman GT4...I've got a fair bit of work to do to get through these whilst I still can! Even if values go the other way and punitive taxes make them worthless in the future I'd still be happy I had them safely tucked away in my garage to play with as and when I like.

If I can do this, I don't care what milk float I have to daily to stay PC. I have a plug in hybrid daily driver now and prefer it over my previous petrol car, in fact a full EV would probably suit me now and I'd happily have one. Taxes would have to be huge or petrol be unavailable before I give up my petrol weekend toys though, I really, really hope that doesn't happen in my lifetime.

My sentiment is definitely the same as yours, even if my budget might not be! Still very much have a V8 Vantage and N/A 911 (both manual preferably) on my list to get through before the milk float sits on the drive.

[df76]

So, even ignoring the UK government policy requirements, Ford and JLR will now both be fully electric by 2030. Within twenty years an "old" ICE car on our roads will start to become quite a rarity. The future use of petrol station land will now become quite a focus.

[bigothunter]

df76 said:

So, even ignoring the UK government policy requirements, Ford and JLR will now both be fully electric by 2030. Within twenty years an "old" ICE car on our roads will start to become quite a rarity. The future use of petrol station land will now become quite a focus.

Most commercial vehicles will still need diesel, so only a proportion of filling stations will close.

[Borghetto]

So where's all this increased electricity capacity going to be conjured up from?

[DonkeyApple]

df76 said:

So, even ignoring the UK government policy requirements, Ford and JLR will now both be fully electric by 2030. Within twenty years an "old" ICE car on our roads will start to become quite a rarity. The future use of petrol station land will now become quite a focus.

The logic is clear for a firm like Jaguar. Ford is much more interesting. Their 2030 'pledge' is for Europe and they will be using VW's platform. Personally, I'd first look at where the money is coming from for the Cologne plant revamp and whether the origin of the funds plays any part in making a public claim today that doesn't need to be adhered to tomorrow. That's me being the typical cynic in regards to public announcements by global corporates not often being nearly aligned with the true objectives.

The other element is that Ford have a hugely dominant position at the base end of the market such as the Fiesta which is the UK's most popular car but they have a competitive advantage over other firms from being able to manufacture more cheaply and having lower customer expectations. If in 2030 they are buying platform tech from VW then this advantage is flipped as their basic frame will be more expensive than VW's. Then on top of that the user tech for everyone is likely to be pretty much uniform so where will Ford's European cars find the savings to be cheaper than say VW or how will they boost their brand values so that consumers no longer expect them to be cheaper?

And this is all before the question as to whether by 2030 EVs at the lowest end of the market have become genuinely cheaper to manufacture than the comparable ICE or they risk losing 5 to 10 years of sales to competitors ablemto undercut with ICE products.

To me that's a hugely interesting how the next decade will impact on brand positionings, volumes and the general transfer over to EV. But, I'm inclined to file Ford's PR announcement under 'guff to get headlines and funding' as opposed to 'it's absolutely going to happen and is set in stone'.

[Evanivitch]

Borghetto said:

So where's all this increased electricity capacity going to be conjured up from?

Google: National Grid Future Energy Scenarios