ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?
Discussion
Great question OP.
I am in a similar quandary - never owned a decent car before but potentially able to get into something special to me in the next three years -much smaller budget than you -but all relative!
I’ve been watching a lot of EV conversion videos and think that’s the route I might go down. ICE drive it for the next 5/6 years then see if it can get it changed.
Crucially this won’t be a DD and I can fully see our next family car being EV-it just makes so much sense in a ‘white goods’ way.
Don’t want to commit yet as I don’t like the idea of my special car looking like a Nokia when everyone else is driving around in iPhones
I am in a similar quandary - never owned a decent car before but potentially able to get into something special to me in the next three years -much smaller budget than you -but all relative!
I’ve been watching a lot of EV conversion videos and think that’s the route I might go down. ICE drive it for the next 5/6 years then see if it can get it changed.
Crucially this won’t be a DD and I can fully see our next family car being EV-it just makes so much sense in a ‘white goods’ way.
Don’t want to commit yet as I don’t like the idea of my special car looking like a Nokia when everyone else is driving around in iPhones
Why don't you get a nice Porsche taycan EV? You should drive some EVs before you slate them, Mental bit of kit. I'm a massive petrol head, obviously, but just leased a Renault Zoe for commuting/light family duties. 3 days on and I can honestly say I would never buy another ICE car for daily driving. The Zoe is better in everyway than an equivalent ICE car. I don't even miss the noise. Plus I really enjoy my toys even more now. Plus more EVs will probably push the price of classics up (which by that time will be any ICE car that's half decent). Also as others have said we will still burn petrol and as a nation of car lover's we can't afford to lose the industry which supports them...
Stereolab said:
Great question OP.
I am in a similar quandary - never owned a decent car before but potentially able to get into something special to me in the next three years -much smaller budget than you -but all relative!
I’ve been watching a lot of EV conversion videos and think that’s the route I might go down. ICE drive it for the next 5/6 years then see if it can get it changed.
Crucially this won’t be a DD and I can fully see our next family car being EV-it just makes so much sense in a ‘white goods’ way.
Don’t want to commit yet as I don’t like the idea of my special car looking like a Nokia when everyone else is driving around in iPhones
Hi stereolab,I am in a similar quandary - never owned a decent car before but potentially able to get into something special to me in the next three years -much smaller budget than you -but all relative!
I’ve been watching a lot of EV conversion videos and think that’s the route I might go down. ICE drive it for the next 5/6 years then see if it can get it changed.
Crucially this won’t be a DD and I can fully see our next family car being EV-it just makes so much sense in a ‘white goods’ way.
Don’t want to commit yet as I don’t like the idea of my special car looking like a Nokia when everyone else is driving around in iPhones
Yes, we could make an EV work for a daily and knocking about locally but now my wife and I are retired we want to get out and about and do some trAvelling across this fair isle of ours once we all get the opportunity. So this means the special needs some range hence the ICE requirement in part.
strange you mention EV conversions as I follow Petrol Ped on line and there he goes and shows up on Vintage Voltage. Some very interesting content there but probAbly a bit niche at the moment but I'm sure will become more mainstream.
You've probably gathered I was looking to treat myself and the budget is not unlimited hence the question and concern about sudden drop in residuAls as more EVs come onto the market and enthusiasm and legislation takes its toll.
I do think EVs are not quite there for range and charging times and the infrastructure is a bit sporadic to rely on at the moment for easy big journeys. As a lot have said the car manufacturers are outstripping the nation's chArging stAtions and could become a tiresome impediment to EV charging away from home
anyway this discussion has convinced me to just get on and do it and not worry too much about the future. Cheers.
Jasandjules said:
I know this is Pistonheads, but there are people who can't afford to buy new cars. So they won't be purchasing a new EV in 2030......
As time passes (and it won’t take long, most cars on the road, certainly those doing reasonably mileage, are <15 years old), you won’t have much choice as most used cars will be electric (and hybrid).Then, due to politics, emission free zones being in most towns/cities, most used car buyers will actively choose hybrid/EV where they can.
Interesting/performance petrol cars will still be in demand of course, but that will be such a tiny part of the market and often for those who won’t be driving into towns or are second/toy cars.
Jasandjules said:
I know this is Pistonheads, but there are people who can't afford to buy new cars. So they won't be purchasing a new EV in 2030......
They wouldn’t be buying a new ICE car either. They’ll just buy a ten year old Model 3 for 5 grand in the same way they’ll buy a ten year old Mondeo now.
Down on the Farm said:
Haha. Love alfas Johnny Cabs comment. That really is the end for car enthusiasts.
Hi Gr Ja, I'm a retired controls engineer and I just can't see the autonomous tech being there in my lifetime.
Just imagine your operating system is a tad out of date or not fully compatible with the young guns chasing the latest tech and your priority for survival goes to the bottom of the stack!
or if your status is lessened as you get older and less productive member of society being retired so you get the bullet! 
I see these people getting excited for Apple’s car but I can’t think of anything worse. Sat waiting inside while it refuses to operate until you’ve jumped through some hoops and updated to the latest restrictive software version.Hi Gr Ja, I'm a retired controls engineer and I just can't see the autonomous tech being there in my lifetime.
Just imagine your operating system is a tad out of date or not fully compatible with the young guns chasing the latest tech and your priority for survival goes to the bottom of the stack!
or if your status is lessened as you get older and less productive member of society being retired so you get the bullet! Worryingly, I do see autonomous driving taking over in our relatively near future, and have the concerns already mentioned. This goes a bit further for me with the rush to create artificial intelligence. It could be the greatest thing we ever do, or the most disastrous. Depends on who’s in charge of what propaganda the ai is given...
I’ve currently got one of the last old school, low tech cars on order. Think I’ll be keeping that a long time as a safety.
CheesecakeRunner said:
Jasandjules said:
I know this is Pistonheads, but there are people who can't afford to buy new cars. So they won't be purchasing a new EV in 2030......
They wouldn’t be buying a new ICE car either. They’ll just buy a ten year old Model 3 for 5 grand in the same way they’ll buy a ten year old Mondeo now.
Driving a car for pleasure for me has to trigger a few things:
Decent engine noise/exhaust noise
Decent all round handling
Manual interaction with minimal electronics
No compulsory massive touch screen to distract me
Real knobs and buttons that i can easily adjust while driving without looking at them (refer to touch screen issue above)
Range
Plethora of fuel stations
No risk of instant death from electrocution if i maintain the car myself
A central powerplant and power source that doesn't need replacing after 30k miles because its effective range has more then halved.
If and when EVs manage to tick those boxes (noise obviously a moot point) i might be interested.
For the time being i like the fact that my two cars are close to the pinnacle of car and ICE design stretching back many many decades. Not white-goods that will look and feel obsolete in 5 years time.
Decent engine noise/exhaust noise
Decent all round handling
Manual interaction with minimal electronics
No compulsory massive touch screen to distract me
Real knobs and buttons that i can easily adjust while driving without looking at them (refer to touch screen issue above)
Range
Plethora of fuel stations
No risk of instant death from electrocution if i maintain the car myself
A central powerplant and power source that doesn't need replacing after 30k miles because its effective range has more then halved.
If and when EVs manage to tick those boxes (noise obviously a moot point) i might be interested.
For the time being i like the fact that my two cars are close to the pinnacle of car and ICE design stretching back many many decades. Not white-goods that will look and feel obsolete in 5 years time.
9 years is a long time and as we approach it we'll see how the manufacturers start adjusting.
There is a 2035 limit for cars that can drive a significant distance on EV. So the current hybrids like that V60 Golf GTE etc could then fit into that category and potentially provide that great balance for those wanting long trip capability.
Currently one of these does 30 miles I think at most, but imagine say a 100 mile capability one, so you can do electric almost all the time but also never get delayed on you annual Cornwall/Scottish highlands/european trip?
I can't see top end 2029 cars being legislated off the road a few years later, in fact I can't see that happening to ICE cars for quite some considerable time, inner city restrictions and some tax hikes may be but the passing of time, peoples attitudes and EV getting better will sort the main shift. But EV's might not avoid taxes either, it's a whole chunk of money lost in duty that needs to be found some how.
Also affordability will be key for a good transition, old EV's aren't looking to be as cheap as old ICE and they'll be poorer performance than the new ones, used owners, the sort that have >7 year old cars all the time could be hard to sway to old EV's?
I wouldn't currently be swayed from any personal choice, too early I think for that, but definitely one to watch, and as for autonomous cars I just can't see it until far far longer out, if at all.
There is a 2035 limit for cars that can drive a significant distance on EV. So the current hybrids like that V60 Golf GTE etc could then fit into that category and potentially provide that great balance for those wanting long trip capability.
Currently one of these does 30 miles I think at most, but imagine say a 100 mile capability one, so you can do electric almost all the time but also never get delayed on you annual Cornwall/Scottish highlands/european trip?
I can't see top end 2029 cars being legislated off the road a few years later, in fact I can't see that happening to ICE cars for quite some considerable time, inner city restrictions and some tax hikes may be but the passing of time, peoples attitudes and EV getting better will sort the main shift. But EV's might not avoid taxes either, it's a whole chunk of money lost in duty that needs to be found some how.
Also affordability will be key for a good transition, old EV's aren't looking to be as cheap as old ICE and they'll be poorer performance than the new ones, used owners, the sort that have >7 year old cars all the time could be hard to sway to old EV's?
I wouldn't currently be swayed from any personal choice, too early I think for that, but definitely one to watch, and as for autonomous cars I just can't see it until far far longer out, if at all.
kambites said:
I'm keeping my ICE car, but the family bus will go EV when we replace it and I wont miss the internal combustion element. For our use, electric drive is simply better.
Likewise. I’m happy to move with the times on the daily driver.
But I want my ICE toy for limited weekend miles.
The spinner of plates said:
kambites said:
I'm keeping my ICE car, but the family bus will go EV when we replace it and I wont miss the internal combustion element. For our use, electric drive is simply better.
Likewise. I’m happy to move with the times on the daily driver.
But I want my ICE toy for limited weekend miles.
Scootersp said:
9 years is a long time and as we approach it we'll see how the manufacturers start adjusting.
9 years is a very long time in technology.9 years ago, Tesla had one car. The Roadster built out Lotus bodyshells with their battery nailed in. The Model S didn't arrive until 2012, 8 years ago, and the Model 3 in 2017. Even though it feels like they've been around forever given the amount of talk about them...
If they can go from virtually nothing, to where they and their cars are now, I think it's actually very hard to imagine where the technology can go in another 9 years. EV from all manufacturers will now evolve unbelievably fast - a lot faster than people think they will.
If you are worried about residuals, what will happen to your 10 year old £60K EV when it needs new batteries?
Like your mobile phone, a cheap set of non OE batteries are nothing but sticking plaster, so you have to go OE, plus fitting.
There is a 2010 Tesla Roadster on A/T at the moment, 11000 miles only but needs new batteries at around €15000 for the batteries alone, making the car effectively unsaleable.
Just wait until all the early adopters realise this, then the only way forward is leasing EVs
Maybe classic cars or almost any seriously desirable modern ICE is the best place for your cash?
Like your mobile phone, a cheap set of non OE batteries are nothing but sticking plaster, so you have to go OE, plus fitting.
There is a 2010 Tesla Roadster on A/T at the moment, 11000 miles only but needs new batteries at around €15000 for the batteries alone, making the car effectively unsaleable.
Just wait until all the early adopters realise this, then the only way forward is leasing EVs
Maybe classic cars or almost any seriously desirable modern ICE is the best place for your cash?
Unless battery capacity and infrastructure improves markedly then it won't be viable, especially if landlords don't get onboard as anyone renting is effectively excluded from having an EV.
The taxation system will be changing as if not there will be a £40 billion shortfall a year from the switch from ICE to electricity.
The taxation system will be changing as if not there will be a £40 billion shortfall a year from the switch from ICE to electricity.
Institute for fiscal studies said:
A road map for motoring taxation
Taxes on motoring raise around £40 billion a year for the exchequer (around 5% of government revenue), equivalent to about £750 per adult in the UK. Most of this comes from fuel duties, which in 2019–20 are expected to raise £28 billion in their own right plus an additional £5.7 billion from the VAT payable on the duties. Another £6.5 billion comes from vehicle excise duty (VED) and £0.2 billion from the London congestion charge.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14407
Taxes on motoring raise around £40 billion a year for the exchequer (around 5% of government revenue), equivalent to about £750 per adult in the UK. Most of this comes from fuel duties, which in 2019–20 are expected to raise £28 billion in their own right plus an additional £5.7 billion from the VAT payable on the duties. Another £6.5 billion comes from vehicle excise duty (VED) and £0.2 billion from the London congestion charge.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14407
off_again said:
Been said previously, but lets be honest, is any government really going to ban ICE cars by 2030 / 2035 or what ever? Not seeing it. The chances of this actually coming into affect is limited, any deadlines will get pushed and its only for new cars anyway. Does that mean that ICE is going away? No time soon.
Between 2030 and 2040 the following countries will be banning the sale of new ICE cars.Norway, Austria, Belgium, UK, Denmark, Canada, Germany, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Netherlands, Slovenia, Sweden, Japan, Korea, Egypt, France, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Hong Kong. China will be banning them but hasn't set a date, and there is a strong possibility that the ban will happen here in the US in 2035.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2...
I live near the Permian basin, one of the richest oil fields in the US, and they are fighting for survival.
https://www.courthousenews.com/fracking-using-up-m...
https://www.sierraclub.org/texas/blog/2020/10/grou...
https://www.abqjournal.com/1331658/nm-say-times-up...
Add all this up; Biden is stopping any more drilling on Federal lands, many countries are moving to EV's, the water supply for oil wells is drying up, and the locals are calling on the Feds to stop the pollution from the wells and the refineries.
Petrol isn't going away, but it's going to get expensive as demand drops and production costs increase.
Back in the late 1800's the whale oil industry also stuck their heads in the sand and said, "It will never happen, the world will always need whale oil"
biggles330d said:
Same here. One my second EV and it beats my previous cars hands down on 90% of trips, especially the 95% that are probably less than 10 miles (to the shops / town / coffee etc). Even the thought of firing up my ICE for such a short trip and all the cold engine wear and tear, no heat coming from the heating and sub-optimal running as it all warms through makes it a nonsense compared with my EV. But, for the long road trip, distance stuff and sunday morning thrash the ICE will remain.
Sure but what we need is an electric Dacia priced EV. If it's going to be a purely functional local runabout, a Twizy type EV, with a bit more comfort and doors will do.
I actually quite fancied a Twizy but it's just as expensive to insure as a 200hp hatch.
I imagine the free park and charge will eventually become a parking time/cost plus convenience tariff, in a couple of years.
Even if they slowly increase the VED on ICE (counter-productive given it all got cheaper a few years ago), people will still offset that cost and keep their ICE cars rather than spend a fortune on an additional EV.
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