Has JCB saved engines?

[Volvolover]

Killboy said:

Volvolover said:

You're in the industry and in the know as you keep telling me, you figure it out

You are the one making statements. I'm asking you for the details of what you just said.

Or are you talking nonsense again?

Really?

Zero BIK rate
Previous grants to purchase
Upscaled government investment in public charging


There's three very easy ones for you to get you going or are they lies too?

[anonymous-user]

Volvolover said:

I'm not disagreeing with you really, but just pointing out current growth in demand is driven by legislation which is easy to see.

Put it this way, if they were taxed at the same rate as an ICE and petrol was 5p a mile would it be the same type of chart as above?

There is a very important factor at play, that has only recently started to change,namely, that so far you cannot just walk into any showroom and buy an EV equivalent to the ICE car.


Only now, with the advent of models such as the ID3 or skoda Enyka-kaka, is there an easy line of purchase for the average man in the street.

Until now, EVs have been niche, expensive models. Even with Tesla, bring down costs with the Model3, you can't just walk into a showroom and buy one. Most private car buyers in the uk buy a new car when their old one goes in for work. "Serial" Golf or Yaris buyers for example, walk into a VW or Toyota dealer and get sold a new one. To buy an EV to date has required the used to actively go out to "buy and EV".

This is changing, and fast. When you can a walk into any showroom for any major brand and see, drive and experience an EV that is effective identical to the ICE car you arleady own from that brand, that is the day that for most people the sales of EV will go through the roof.

For most people, who don't drive long distances, and put comfort, ease of use, ahead of everything else (well except "liking the colour" which imo is the main differentiator for non-car people buying cars.....) suddenly, they will walk into a show room, get shown say a 2.0 tdi Golf and an ID3, and frankly, they'll choose the ID3. A test drive will seal the deal, with the instantaneous performance being so dominant they they will be convinced they have just bought the worlds fastest car (compared to their 1.3 yaris petrol, it actually will be....). They will love the silence, the one-pedal driving, the ease, convenience and the salesman will sell it to them on "Low running costs" and "being very environmentally friendly"


At this point, and we are very very nearly there, it's game over for ICE sales........

[Volvolover]

Max_Torque said:

Volvolover said:

I'm not disagreeing with you really, but just pointing out current growth in demand is driven by legislation which is easy to see.

Put it this way, if they were taxed at the same rate as an ICE and petrol was 5p a mile would it be the same type of chart as above?

There is a very important factor at play, that has only recently started to change,namely, that so far you cannot just walk into any showroom and buy an EV equivalent to the ICE car.


Only now, with the advent of models such as the ID3 or skoda Enyka-kaka, is there an easy line of purchase for the average man in the street.

Until now, EVs have been niche, expensive models. Even with Tesla, bring down costs with the Model3, you can't just walk into a showroom and buy one. Most private car buyers in the uk buy a new car when their old one goes in for work. "Serial" Golf or Yaris buyers for example, walk into a VW or Toyota dealer and get sold a new one. To buy an EV to date has required the used to actively go out to "buy and EV".

This is changing, and fast. When you can a walk into any showroom for any major brand and see, drive and experience an EV that is effective identical to the ICE car you arleady own from that brand, that is the day that for most people the sales of EV will go through the roof.

For most people, who don't drive long distances, and put comfort, ease of use, ahead of everything else (well except "liking the colour" which imo is the main differentiator for non-car people buying cars.....) suddenly, they will walk into a show room, get shown say a 2.0 tdi Golf and an ID3, and frankly, they'll choose the ID3. A test drive will seal the deal, with the instantaneous performance being so dominant they they will be convinced they have just bought the worlds fastest car (compared to their 1.3 yaris petrol, it actually will be....). They will love the silence, the one-pedal driving, the ease, convenience and the salesman will sell it to them on "Low running costs" and "being very environmentally friendly"


At this point, and we are very very nearly there, it's game over for ICE sales........

I've already said i'm not disagreeing with you, its in the post for sure

[KobayashiMaru86]

I'll resist as long as I can and while all my toys will be petrol (until they make them too expensive to run too), I can see the daily being EV eventually. Even if the car then becomes a white good for me, with no emotional attachment. From what I've seen of EV's, with the exception of what Rimac is doing, which is unobtainium, most are dull and will probably kill off cars as an interest for me.

[bigwheel]

What would a hydrogen powered ICE be lubricated with?

[Killboy]

Volvolover said:

Really?

Zero BIK rate
Previous grants to purchase
Upscaled government investment in public charging


There's three very easy ones for you to get you going or are they lies too?

Would you like to plot these "legislations" on your graph?

[Polite M135 driver]

bigwheel said:

What would a hydrogen powered ICE be lubricated with?

Saturated fats.

[anonymous-user]

Volvolover said:

I've already said i'm not disagreeing with you, its in the post for sure

I wasn't disagreeing with you not disagreeing with me!! :-)

I was just pointing out that yes, tax and legistalation are one thing, but the biggest single factor in choosing an EV or an ICE is having the opportunity to be offered the EV in the first place! Something that unit recently, certainly was not the case. And the more mainstream EVs become, the more they move away from first adopters, the more important this becomes. A bit like Coke vs Pepsi matters not one little bit if the shop you go to only has Coke.....

[DonkeyApple]

cidered77 said:

You see that graph as an argument for "change isn't happening, but it will" - i see it as "change is clearly happening now".

Percentage changes are startling - doubling of BEV, and a massive chunk off Petrol in one year. If you plotted the previous few years, you'd show an exponential curve for BEV that i don't see any chance of reversing. Reminder to come back here in 12 month's time, and see what it looks like then....

We shouldn't look at EV growth in percentage terms such as that as it is ultimately meaningless.

If a beggar has 50p and you give home a £1, his net worth has increased stratospherically in percentage terms but we all appreciate that he remains penniless.

2021 we should buy around 200k EVs. Last year we bought 100k. The previous ten years totalled 100k all in.

Those are impressive growth figures and show the change is clearly happening. However, is is a meteoric rate of change? No, it's happening at a snail's pace despite the massive hype and coverage.

In over a decade of heavy EV pushing of the 35m+ cars on the roads in the UK fewer than 350k at present are EVs. That's 1% market penetration since the GWiz launched in 2001. 20 years to crack 1%.

The reality is somewhere inbetween. Growth is not meteoric by any means, it's incredibly slow but it is categorically happening and categorically gaining pace.

But it is still heavily limited by the fact that we buy 2m new cars a year and for the next 5-10 years more than 50% of these will remain non EVs so the best case scenario is that we hit 500-1m new EVs a year sometime this decade.

This is a change rather than a revolution and we have to be wary of not letting the excessive press and news coverage along with PR hype distort our perception of reality.

[Killboy]

Max_Torque said:

A test drive will seal the deal, with the instantaneous performance being so dominant they they will be convinced they have just bought the worlds fastest car (compared to their 1.3 yaris petrol, it actually will be....). They will love the silence, the one-pedal driving, the ease, convenience and the salesman will sell it to them on "Low running costs" and "being very environmentally friendly"

Exactly. I've been scooting about in Electric Golf ZipCars for a while now, and I just could not even imagine thinking the ICE variant is better for 99% of the time you will be sitting in it. The looking at the costs to run, its a no-brainer.

However, the purchase prices are still somewhat an issue. For the non company buyer, the grant still puts it way more expensive than their ICE competitors (in general).

I've been toying with some company tax calculators to see just how much a zero BIK would tempt a company accountant, and its still difficult to get the EV cheaper. But, the kicker is the residual values of an EV will smash their ICE counterparts, and the cost per mile will ludicrously favour the EV.

[cidered77]

DonkeyApple said:

cidered77 said:

You see that graph as an argument for "change isn't happening, but it will" - i see it as "change is clearly happening now".

Percentage changes are startling - doubling of BEV, and a massive chunk off Petrol in one year. If you plotted the previous few years, you'd show an exponential curve for BEV that i don't see any chance of reversing. Reminder to come back here in 12 month's time, and see what it looks like then....

We shouldn't look at EV growth in percentage terms such as that as it is ultimately meaningless.

If a beggar has 50p and you give home a £1, his net worth has increased stratospherically in percentage terms but we all appreciate that he remains penniless.

2021 we should buy around 200k EVs. Last year we bought 100k. The previous ten years totalled 100k all in.

Those are impressive growth figures and show the change is clearly happening. However, is is a meteoric rate of change? No, it's happening at a snail's pace despite the massive hype and coverage.

In over a decade of heavy EV pushing of the 35m+ cars on the roads in the UK fewer than 350k at present are EVs. That's 1% market penetration since the GWiz launched in 2001. 20 years to crack 1%.

The reality is somewhere inbetween. Growth is not meteoric by any means, it's incredibly slow but it is categorically happening and categorically gaining pace.

But it is still heavily limited by the fact that we buy 2m new cars a year and for the next 5-10 years more than 50% of these will remain non EVs so the best case scenario is that we hit 500-1m new EVs a year sometime this decade.

This is a change rather than a revolution and we have to be wary of not letting the excessive press and news coverage along with PR hype distort our perception of reality.

completely 100% disagree. For any new wave of anything - fashion/technology/services/fruit, anything really, of course you look at the percentage growth figures - especially when you move beyond the initial developing/early adopter phase to more mainstream. Of course you do! and it's clear that period of transition has already started.... (graphs above)

Doubling of growth in a year is meteoric - any reason why that won't continue in 2021? Graphs our friend Volvolover posted says it's on track....

5-10 years we will still be 50% ICE? not a chance.... it's June 9th today; lets come back in a year's time and see what that % share is in 12 month's time.

I was half thinking of it for the next renewal of the family wagon - but, want to sit back to watch how it develops for just one more car (and the Defender 90 isn't EV yet); if this were 2025 though, 5 years away from the change... would i be spending 65k on something with real and present question marks on its resale because everything is shifting ? don't think i would be -

[fido]

KobayashiMaru86 said:

I'll resist as long as I can and while all my toys will be petrol (until they make them too expensive to run too), I can see the daily being EV eventually. Even if the car then becomes a white good for me, with no emotional attachment. From what I've seen of EV's, with the exception of what Rimac is doing, which is unobtainium, most are dull and will probably kill off cars as an interest for me.

I was toying with a Honda-E to get round the Congestion Charge but the price of it relative to just using public transport (or even getting reamed occasionally by driving my petrol into town) means it would be a foolhardy investment!

[ashenfie]

fido said:

KobayashiMaru86 said:

I'll resist as long as I can and while all my toys will be petrol (until they make them too expensive to run too), I can see the daily being EV eventually. Even if the car then becomes a white good for me, with no emotional attachment. From what I've seen of EV's, with the exception of what Rimac is doing, which is unobtainium, most are dull and will probably kill off cars as an interest for me.

I was toying with a Honda-E to get round the Congestion Charge but the price of it relative to just using public transport (or even getting reamed occasionally by driving my petrol into town) means it would be a foolhardy investment!

if. there is a congestion charge you most likely in the city and it will be quicker to walk. We are talking saving the environment not. shoe leather for lazy people.

[98elise]

fido said:

Max_Torque said:

The single biggest problem today with recycling HV lithium batteries is that there just aren't any to recycle!

Sorry I don't buy that - in the same way that my local council don't recycle all those carefully stacked boxes I leave out for them every week! It's too expensive and difficult or Tesla & co would be recycling their own batteries 100% (as you say why wouldn't you?) (<-answer). The labour cost alone would be pretty huge to disassemble the huge arrays of cells in a car battery - that's not to say they can't make them more recyclable in the future but then again that adds to the cost of design/manufacture.

Edited by fido on Wednesday 9th June 14:16

Why would the Labour cost be huge? They are highly modular and easy to disassemble with a few tools. They are essentially laptop size cells, clustered into modular packs, then fitted into the large battery case.

Most EV conversion places use old Tesla batteries as the basis for conversions.

[ashenfie]

Tesla already recycle the batteries that are not good enough for cars, so not seeing this be an issue.

[Volvolover]

Max_Torque said:

Volvolover said:

I've already said i'm not disagreeing with you, its in the post for sure

I wasn't disagreeing with you not disagreeing with me!! :-)

I was just pointing out that yes, tax and legistalation are one thing, but the biggest single factor in choosing an EV or an ICE is having the opportunity to be offered the EV in the first place! Something that unit recently, certainly was not the case. And the more mainstream EVs become, the more they move away from first adopters, the more important this becomes. A bit like Coke vs Pepsi matters not one little bit if the shop you go to only has Coke.....

I must say with the VAG BEVS that have recently been announced I can see them selling like water in the dessert to the general punter

[jagfan2]

cidered77 said:

Well now you've frightened me into trying to make my own crank at home....

I do completely get the point on interoperability of parts though... and only recently getting hands on with cars/racecars, can see the incredible precision and near total uniqueness of most parts making up my various motors. With the associated energy required to make...

One thought i've had a few times - ignoring competitive forces and industry opposition for now, wouldn't one longer term solution be a universal standard for battery interface? A kind of "USB for battery tech" . You could then completely decouple the powertrain supply chain from the building of cars, and you also create potential for the public to only upgrade their battery, and keep the same car (with many less moving parts) going for much longer, with the associated reduction in energy from production. We have common networking standards (GSM/3G/4g/5G/MPLS/etc etc), whereas all the telcos would much prefer they remain proprietary after all

It's not far removed from Tesla today, really - that Model S looks the same as it did nearly 10 years ago now; they're not bothered with what it looks like, and endless grill or lights changings, and neither are the buyers it seems. They're differentiating on software, and battery/motor tech.... could that be the future of cars i wonder.....

To use your analogy, why don't mobiles all have the same battery so its easily replaceable when it looses capacity or fails, or so you could keep your newer better battery when you swap phones? or even in power tools? Unfortunately the proprietary nature makes them money.

Also here isnt a universal battery pack, for the same reason there isnt a universal engine or fuel tank standard, they are large lumps and very specific to each platform, OEMs are just about working out how to standardise them internally let alone with other manufacturers. And as we see in motorsport and passenger cars, the battery software is critical to range, so this tends to be proprietary.

However the HV connectors (hidden and visible) are effectively industry standard now, which is significantly reducing cost, and will do further as 800v/400v systems become more standard

[Megaflow]

Christ it is like watching the dinasours denying the asteroid or complaining about the sun coming up tomorrow.

BEV’s are happening. The tipping point is here. Find something to like about it.

Personally a daily driver that is as quiet as a Rolls Royce, probably quieter, with minimal to zero servicing costs, servicing being different to maintenance such as replacing worn brakes, sounds like a win win to me!

[APontus]

Megaflow said:

Christ it is like watching the dinasours denying the asteroid or complaining about the sun coming up tomorrow.

Exactly that. You can hate the fact it's happening whilst still acknowledging the inevitable.

All the passenger car investment is going into BEV. Whole manufacturers have invested billions, changed their businesses, formed strategic technical alliances and even merged together to create and deliver it. The decisions have been taken at government and board room level and we're now into the execution phase.

[braddo]

Megaflow said:

...

BEV’s are happening. The tipping point is here.

...

It feels like things got serious in Jan 2020 - from 1st Jan the sudden quantity of TV adverts from mainstream manufacturers to market their electric/hybrid models was very striking to me.

So, we're barely 18 months in to the process of the big manufacturers actually trying to sell/market their EV products. And most of that 18 months has been a global pandemic with lockdowns!

Given that context, I think it shows that the switch towards EV/hybrid and away from pure ICE cars is going to happen very quickly.