RE: Final EU vote on 2035 engine phaseout delayed
Discussion
GT9 said:
Battery packs are made structural to reduce the kerb mass (and cost) of the vehicle.
I have it on good authority from my fellow posters that both mass and cost are very important.
It seems you truly can't please all the people all the time.
No. You not worked that one out yet? I have it on good authority from my fellow posters that both mass and cost are very important.
It seems you truly can't please all the people all the time.
(Applies to all walks of life, and doubly-so to women!
)More seriously, we could do with some stats to see how big a problem this is:-
- How much mass is saved per car by making the battery strucural? We can then work out a % saving, both for resource consumption and dynamic purposes.
- What % of BEVs are likely to be written-off (significantly) prematurely through battery-packs being structural.
...and then see whether there's a big difference between those two %'s (IYSWIM)...i.e. does the material saving from manufacture cost- or save metal & other parts over the long-run?
Equally, the cost equation is:-
- How much lower is the purchase price because the battery is structural?
- What's the incremental additional lifetime cost for a BEV through higher insurance premiums?
havoc said:
No. You not worked that one out yet?
(Applies to all walks of life, and doubly-so to women! )
More seriously, we could do with some stats to see how big a problem this is:-
- How much mass is saved per car by making the battery strucural? We can then work out a % saving, both for resource consumption and dynamic purposes.
- What % of BEVs are likely to be written-off (significantly) prematurely through battery-packs being structural.
...and then see whether there's a big difference between those two %'s (IYSWIM)...i.e. does the material saving from manufacture cost- or save metal & other parts over the long-run?
Equally, the cost equation is:-
- How much lower is the purchase price because the battery is structural?
- What's the incremental additional lifetime cost for a BEV through higher insurance premiums?
I'd be inclined to let it be.(Applies to all walks of life, and doubly-so to women!
)More seriously, we could do with some stats to see how big a problem this is:-
- How much mass is saved per car by making the battery strucural? We can then work out a % saving, both for resource consumption and dynamic purposes.
- What % of BEVs are likely to be written-off (significantly) prematurely through battery-packs being structural.
...and then see whether there's a big difference between those two %'s (IYSWIM)...i.e. does the material saving from manufacture cost- or save metal & other parts over the long-run?
Equally, the cost equation is:-
- How much lower is the purchase price because the battery is structural?
- What's the incremental additional lifetime cost for a BEV through higher insurance premiums?
Gives something for the recycling boys to cut their teeth on.
GT9 said:
I'd be inclined to let it be.
Gives something for the recycling boys to cut their teeth on.
Where a battery is non-repairable and is structural it is very unlikely to be replaceable at anything remotely close to a reasonable cost. I would expect that to have a seriously adverse effect on its used value.Gives something for the recycling boys to cut their teeth on.
Strangely Brown said:
On that we agree. But hey, I can't see anything outrageous or unbelievable in there so I am inclined to give the benefit.
"Battery packs are the most expensive part of an EV and make up around half the total price of electric cars."Edited by Strangely Brown on Thursday 23 March 20:08
Ignoring that WRITTEN OFF is in capitals and therefore obviously FACT, (does the Daily Mail have 12 year olds writing for them?), I don't see why battery packs can't be both structural and also bolted to hardpoints such that they can be replaced when dead or damaged.
Edited by pheonix478 on Thursday 23 March 21:30
Strangely Brown said:
GT9 said:
I'd be inclined to let it be.
Gives something for the recycling boys to cut their teeth on.
Where a battery is non-repairable and is structural it is very unlikely to be replaceable at anything remotely close to a reasonable cost. I would expect that to have a seriously adverse effect on its used value.Gives something for the recycling boys to cut their teeth on.
It's hardly going to matter if it's damaged or even whether that's an insurance write-off or not.
Much discussion recently about batteries on the EV threads and in GG has centred around their recyclability, and the problem of not having enough feedstock yet to demonstrate high-volume recyclability.
I'm suggesting, with tongue partially in cheek, that this might help get the recycling plants going.
Call it seeking opportunity where others might see threat
braddo said:
Pepperpots said:
braddo said:
There are not going to be swathes of the UK population stuck in villages with no means of getting around.
Unless you drive a Taycan or an iPace apparently...
havoc said:
but in the real world like Yorkshire, mid-Wales, Scotland, Lincolnshire...
All places in the U.K. where the population desperately needs to walk more!! Suicide and murder by lard is a particularly egregious way for people to kill themselves or murder their children as it takes so long and costs everyone else so much money. Decades of giving them lard vouchers while they not only consume all the biscuits but all the resources of the NHS and local social services.
Ironically, they're at the vanguard of EV mobility as a section of society!!
Here's the reality:
People who need old, used cars due to economic circumstances can't buy new or nearly new cars full stop. This isn't an EV issue but merely a common sense one.
EVs in the U.K. have only really been being bought since 2020 so there are no old, used EVs for people to purchase yet. But given the likelihood that this section of society has a lot of the folk who don't own driveways they couldn't make use of them yet either.
If we look to the 2040s which is when these people will be considering a viable switch to EV via an old used wagon then the U.K. private car fleet will be at least 50% used EVs with some dating back to today. Ergo the old used market will have been created for people to take advantage of.
At the same time three other markets will need to have developed:
1: A remote charging network. This is being created today by the consumer demands of those who have driveways and have EVs. Ie why Tescos and Waitrose have chargers and Aldi and Lidl aren't yet running as many. Not because these businesses are stupid but because they are smart. If employers and retailers and any enterprise wants to cater for consumers with any wealth, any meaningful spending power then they must facilitate remote charging if only as a PR fop. By 2035 this network will be expansive from private clubs down to free 10 mins for Poundland grazers.
2: battery replacement/refurbishing. This doesn't exist at present for the simple reason that there are no EVs yet needing the service. By the 2040s we will have the same data as China does as to when a typical battery pack needs replacing or refurbing, the typical cost and whether the state of the vehicle warrants the expense. The used market may settle in to the simple practice of refurbing the battery packs at 10 years. Especially as manufacturers plan to still be owning their cars beyond this period as they seek to move to a rental and subscription model for the entire life of the vehicle. That massive expansion of the used approved beyond 6 years and two debt cycles will see manufacturers finding the age or drop off point where to get the rental deal away they need to have refurbed the cells.
3: New forms of consumer credit offerings that are based on the depreciation curve of EVs not ICE. The market currently just uses the ICE model and adds risk mark-up fudge to cover over the error. They do this because there are so few transactions that it doesn't matter and the current consumers will willingly pay more than enough to cover the error. However, long before 2035 and the 2040s the volume of EV sales and the number of used deals will mean EV financing has to use its own modelling. That middling will be structured around the different depreciation curve and higher terminal value of EVs. In simple terms the higher terminal value due to motor and battery values will mean PCP like products will fill the lower end of the market to easily facilitate the financial needs of the low income households seeking to finance an old, used EV.
While this all means there is almost no problem for most people, we must admit that there is a looming issue for lard fanatics who just won't be able to fit into the type of small city car that has a small and cheap enough battery for them to afford. EVs may transpire to have lardist prejudices although one would think the extra regen would compensate?
otolith said:
Last car I scrapped was because it wasn't worth fixing the diesel injectors.
A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
Wonder how many milk floats will be scrapped by people in the future when they realise the cost of replacing the the batteries.A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
GroundZero said:
otolith said:
Last car I scrapped was because it wasn't worth fixing the diesel injectors.
A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
Wonder how many milk floats will be scrapped by people in the future when they realise the cost of replacing the the batteries.A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
Do you have a visceral dislike for them that prejudices your views on their merits and limitations maybe?
Has it occurs to you that such casual use of language makes your point less credible not more?
Strangely Brown said:
Hmmm... battery not repairable and is structural. That means it is not replacable. Who would want to buy that in the used market?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/electriccars/art...
Nice story, except it’s not truehttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/electriccars/art...
Edited by Strangely Brown on Thursday 23 March 19:07
The Model Y structural battery can be removed for repair and replacement.
It’s certainly harder than for a non structural one but the steps are detailed in Teslas service manuals.
In fact the ease of repairability often conflicts with weight and cost saving measures in car design, not limited to EVs. Use of composites to save weight, bigger single piece mouldings and castings to make assembly quicker and cheaper etc all make repair harder.
It’s a balance which is justly dependent on the chance of needing a repair or replacement. If that chance is low then going with the more efficient integrated design is still the best choice as Tesla have done.
https://insideevs.com/news/587147/tesla-structural...
Soupdragon65 said:
GroundZero said:
otolith said:
Last car I scrapped was because it wasn't worth fixing the diesel injectors.
A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
Wonder how many milk floats will be scrapped by people in the future when they realise the cost of replacing the the batteries.A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
Do you have a visceral dislike for them that prejudices your views on their merits and limitations maybe?
Has it occurs to you that such casual use of language makes your point less credible not more?
Not too shabby that a Taycan milk float can lap Dunsfold (Top Gear circuit ) less than 1:18
GroundZero said:
Wonder how many milk floats will be scrapped by people in the future when they realise the cost of replacing the the batteries.
It's going to depend on the allround state of the car. The point at which batteries generally start to degrade will trigger the point at which depreciation increases. There will therefore be an inflection point where it switches from being prudent to sell a used car with a depleted range to selling a used car with a refurbished battery pack. It's going to depend on where that inflection point is on the lifetime curve. If it is half way through and the car remains owned by the manufacturer then a refurb is going to be done and priced into the next lease. If batteries last as long as the lifetime of the vehicle then the whole lot will be replaced.
What is generally expected is that the lifespan of an EV will be greater than an ICE as there are fewer costly consumables to trigger the scrapping event. It's also currently expected that most used EVs will benefit from a battery refurb in their lifetime.
But what a lot of folk have missed is that manufacturers aren't planning on consumers ever owning the cars they use. The industry plan is to retain all the cars on the balance sheet way beyond the current 2-3 lease cycles and if plausible keep the car its entire life on the balance sheet being endlessly rented out. That would mean no one ever has to deal with battery replacement, scrapping or anything as everyone will be shoved onto perpetual leasing and service subscriptions.
Soupdragon65 said:
Strangely Brown said:
Hmmm... battery not repairable and is structural. That means it is not replacable. Who would want to buy that in the used market?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/electriccars/art...
Nice story, except it’s not truehttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/electriccars/art...
Edited by Strangely Brown on Thursday 23 March 19:07
The Model Y structural battery can be removed for repair and replacement.
It’s certainly harder than for a non structural one but the steps are detailed in Teslas service manuals.
In fact the ease of repairability often conflicts with weight and cost saving measures in car design, not limited to EVs. Use of composites to save weight, bigger single piece mouldings and castings to make assembly quicker and cheaper etc all make repair harder.
It’s a balance which is justly dependent on the chance of needing a repair or replacement. If that chance is low then going with the more efficient integrated design is still the best choice as Tesla have done.
https://insideevs.com/news/587147/tesla-structural...
So, I refer the honourable gentleman to my original statement.
DonkeyApple said:
All places in the U.K. where the population desperately needs to walk more!!
Suicide and murder by lard is a particularly egregious way for people to kill themselves or murder their children as it takes so long and costs everyone else so much money. Decades of giving them lard vouchers while they not only consume all the biscuits but all the resources of the NHS and local social services.
Suicide and murder by lard is a particularly egregious way for people to kill themselves or murder their children as it takes so long and costs everyone else so much money. Decades of giving them lard vouchers while they not only consume all the biscuits but all the resources of the NHS and local social services.
Would you like to try walking your young kids 3-4 miles to the next village (where the nearest school is), down country roads with no paths? In winter?
Do yourself a favour - use your brain before posting s
t, eh?As to your other points:-
1) How is that going to work for a village when the nearest supermarket or shopping centre is 10 miles away or more in the nearest town. And those 'remote charging points' have to service a dozen similarly-afflicted villages?
2) How is that going to work when the battery is a structural part of the car (as per the link above, and as confirmed by Tesla among others). And given how much a replacement battery costs (and will continue to cost, given the weight/quantity of materials/amount of labour required), even assuming they can be swapped-out without hours of labour on top, how is that going to help someone who can only afford to buy a car worth a few grand at most?
3) How is that going to work for a family that can't GET credit?
Once again, you're viewing all this through YOUR perspective, and not even bothering to think that there's a whole host of issues facing those who live in the countryside and aren't minted enough to have a nice farmhouse with plenty of off-road parking. Either that or you don't give a f
k as long as you're alright, just like half of PH posters nowadays...havoc said:
DonkeyApple said:
All places in the U.K. where the population desperately needs to walk more!!
Suicide and murder by lard is a particularly egregious way for people to kill themselves or murder their children as it takes so long and costs everyone else so much money. Decades of giving them lard vouchers while they not only consume all the biscuits but all the resources of the NHS and local social services.
Suicide and murder by lard is a particularly egregious way for people to kill themselves or murder their children as it takes so long and costs everyone else so much money. Decades of giving them lard vouchers while they not only consume all the biscuits but all the resources of the NHS and local social services.
Would you like to try walking your young kids 3-4 miles to the next village (where the nearest school is), down country roads with no paths? In winter?
Do yourself a favour - use your brain before posting s
t, eh?As to your other points:-
1) How is that going to work for a village when the nearest supermarket or shopping centre is 10 miles away or more in the nearest town. And those 'remote charging points' have to service a dozen similarly-afflicted villages?
2) How is that going to work when the battery is a structural part of the car (as per the link above, and as confirmed by Tesla among others). And given how much a replacement battery costs (and will continue to cost, given the weight/quantity of materials/amount of labour required), even assuming they can be swapped-out without hours of labour on top, how is that going to help someone who can only afford to buy a car worth a few grand at most?
3) How is that going to work for a family that can't GET credit?
Once again, you're viewing all this through YOUR perspective, and not even bothering to think that there's a whole host of issues facing those who live in the countryside and aren't minted enough to have a nice farmhouse with plenty of off-road parking. Either that or you don't give a f
k as long as you're alright, just like half of PH posters nowadays...What's the frothing about having to walk 3 miles to school in winter?
What's the issue with driving to a supermarket?
You seem to be quite angry and random about made up things. Please don't go and join that group of whinging dorises who are convinced that it's all someone else's fault and everyone else should be paying them free money because they're really princesses and very important.
Our village is putting in chargers at the village hall and church to cater for the locals in old workers cottages that have zero offstreet parking. Most properties have parking and the biggest issue is getting mega kilowatts delivered to allow international coathanger travelling sales. All the supermarkets that are 9+ miles away have chargers. London is 95 miles to the centre where there is charging. The surrounding towns and cities are from 20 miles away and have charging.
None of the villages around here are having the slightest issue switching to EV. There's no shortage of EVs about from old to new.
The reason for this is that there is enough money in the community for people to switch now. Other communities will have to wait longer but none of this stuff is rocket science and people who live in villages tend to be more self sufficient and resilient than urban dwellers so will work all of this out more easily. Just so long as they put down the daily Mail
Strangely Brown said:
Excellent. Everyone already knows that anything [within the laws of physics] is possible given enough money and political will. The fact that the ModelY battery can be removed, by dismantling most of the car, does not mean that it is ever going to be a practical or affordable proposition for any owner once the car is out of warranty.
So, I refer the honourable gentleman to my original statement.
It’s not meant to be easy as it’s unlikely to be required very often. Making it hot swappable would be bad engineering. For overall efficiency you make things as easy as they need to be, no more.So, I refer the honourable gentleman to my original statement.
Your original statement said it was not replaceable. That’s just wrong. The steps required are literally in the service manual.
havoc said:
Would you like to try walking your young kids 3-4 miles to the next village (where the nearest school is), down country roads with no paths? In winter?
Do yourself a favour - use your brain before posting s
t, eh?As to your other points:-
1) How is that going to work for a village when the nearest supermarket or shopping centre is 10 miles away or more in the nearest town. And those 'remote charging points' have to service a dozen similarly-afflicted villages?
2) How is that going to work when the battery is a structural part of the car (as per the link above, and as confirmed by Tesla among others). And given how much a replacement battery costs (and will continue to cost, given the weight/quantity of materials/amount of labour required), even assuming they can be swapped-out without hours of labour on top, how is that going to help someone who can only afford to buy a car worth a few grand at most?
3) How is that going to work for a family that can't GET credit?
Once again, you're viewing all this through YOUR perspective, and not even bothering to think that there's a whole host of issues facing those who live in the countryside and aren't minted enough to have a nice farmhouse with plenty of off-road parking. Either that or you don't give a f
k as long as you're alright, just like half of PH posters nowadays...2. how many cars are written-off for structural damage inside the wheelbase? Precious few. Not something us users need to worry about.
3. same way it works now for a family who can't get credit. You know you're talking about 2050 don't you? No need whatsoever to be worrying about this now. The price of a usable ICE banger has doubled since COVID, yet the likelihood of having to put it in the bin tomorrow has stayed the same. The more new EVs we buy today, the smaller this problem will be in 20 years.
havoc said:
Would you like to try walking your young kids 3-4 miles to the next village (where the nearest school is), down country roads with no paths? In winter?
Do yourself a favour - use your brain before posting s
t, eh?As to your other points:-
1) How is that going to work for a village when the nearest supermarket or shopping centre is 10 miles away or more in the nearest town. And those 'remote charging points' have to service a dozen similarly-afflicted villages?
2) How is that going to work when the battery is a structural part of the car (as per the link above, and as confirmed by Tesla among others). And given how much a replacement battery costs (and will continue to cost, given the weight/quantity of materials/amount of labour required), even assuming they can be swapped-out without hours of labour on top, how is that going to help someone who can only afford to buy a car worth a few grand at most?
3) How is that going to work for a family that can't GET credit?
Once again, you're viewing all this through YOUR perspective, and not even bothering to think that there's a whole host of issues facing those who live in the countryside and aren't minted enough to have a nice farmhouse with plenty of off-road parking. Either that or you don't give a f
k as long as you're alright, just like half of PH posters nowadays...Villages tend not to have Hi rise apartments but a mix of terrace, semi detached and detached properties. Many of these will have parking including ex local authority housing. Not withstanding if there is demand then commercial providers may well step in.
Enterprising residents will provide their own much like broadband.
Yes currently there is a lag but when I was young car ownership was a rarity with less than 5M privately owned cars. Now it's about 50% of the population.
EVs and charging network will undoubtedly follow a similar trend.
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