RE: Japanese Car Makers Back 200mph Eliica EV

[Mr Gear]

renrut said:

Mr Gear said:

You know these will be equipped with very sophisticated battery management software/hardware? Have a look on Autotrader, and find me an advert for a cheap Prius or Insight that says something along the lines of: "For sale due to knackered battery"

I think you need to go research battery technology and the difference between hybrids and pure EVs a bit more. The battery tech has got to the point where even at optimum charging and cycling, Lithium based (and most of other fancy metal batteries) have a defined lifetime due to decay. This is a fundamental of the chemistry involved.

They've been trying to crack improved battery capacity for a long long time (EV1 anyone) and to date the best commercially viable technologies still suffer from these effects. Oh there are a few types bandied about in research papers etc but non that can be manufactured on the scales discussed for the Leaf et al.

An Insight or Prius won't have as apparent a problem as a pure EV due to the petrol engine masking any battery life shortcomings, all they'd see it as poorer mpg only as the engine has to cut in more often to recharge.

Personally I'm gonna have to see what the Nissan Leaf comes with in terms of warranties etc.

How very condescending. I am well aware of the multitude of differences between a hybrid and a pure EV, I was using it to demonstrate that the same argument has been levied at hybrids for years, and there isn't an ounce of evidence to support it. Whist there is nothing fundamentally wrong with your post above, I am saying that there is no evidence whatsoever that battery management will be a problem for production EVs.

The batteries will not last forever, and there will be a rate of decay in their capacity, but why the pessimism? If there was genuinely a massive problem with this, do you not think that Nissan would have delayed the production of the Leaf until such time that it was more viable? Show me something that proves otherwise by all means.

Even if a battery dies after 10 years and costs £10,000 to replace, there will be a huge amount of value in the dead battery too. You don't just throw away precious metals when they are easily and economically recycled.

[annodomini2]

Mr Gear said:

renrut said:

Mr Gear said:

You know these will be equipped with very sophisticated battery management software/hardware? Have a look on Autotrader, and find me an advert for a cheap Prius or Insight that says something along the lines of: "For sale due to knackered battery"

I think you need to go research battery technology and the difference between hybrids and pure EVs a bit more. The battery tech has got to the point where even at optimum charging and cycling, Lithium based (and most of other fancy metal batteries) have a defined lifetime due to decay. This is a fundamental of the chemistry involved.

They've been trying to crack improved battery capacity for a long long time (EV1 anyone) and to date the best commercially viable technologies still suffer from these effects. Oh there are a few types bandied about in research papers etc but non that can be manufactured on the scales discussed for the Leaf et al.

An Insight or Prius won't have as apparent a problem as a pure EV due to the petrol engine masking any battery life shortcomings, all they'd see it as poorer mpg only as the engine has to cut in more often to recharge.

Personally I'm gonna have to see what the Nissan Leaf comes with in terms of warranties etc.

How very condescending. I am well aware of the multitude of differences between a hybrid and a pure EV, I was using it to demonstrate that the same argument has been levied at hybrids for years, and there isn't an ounce of evidence to support it. Whist there is nothing fundamentally wrong with your post above, I am saying that there is no evidence whatsoever that battery management will be a problem for production EVs.

The batteries will not last forever, and there will be a rate of decay in their capacity, but why the pessimism? If there was genuinely a massive problem with this, do you not think that Nissan would have delayed the production of the Leaf until such time that it was more viable? Show me something that proves otherwise by all means.

Even if a battery dies after 10 years and costs £10,000 to replace, there will be a huge amount of value in the dead battery too. You don't just throw away precious metals when they are easily and economically recycled.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20022049-54.html...

[Mr Gear]

annodomini2 said:

Mr Gear said:

renrut said:

Mr Gear said:

You know these will be equipped with very sophisticated battery management software/hardware? Have a look on Autotrader, and find me an advert for a cheap Prius or Insight that says something along the lines of: "For sale due to knackered battery"

I think you need to go research battery technology and the difference between hybrids and pure EVs a bit more. The battery tech has got to the point where even at optimum charging and cycling, Lithium based (and most of other fancy metal batteries) have a defined lifetime due to decay. This is a fundamental of the chemistry involved.

They've been trying to crack improved battery capacity for a long long time (EV1 anyone) and to date the best commercially viable technologies still suffer from these effects. Oh there are a few types bandied about in research papers etc but non that can be manufactured on the scales discussed for the Leaf et al.

An Insight or Prius won't have as apparent a problem as a pure EV due to the petrol engine masking any battery life shortcomings, all they'd see it as poorer mpg only as the engine has to cut in more often to recharge.

Personally I'm gonna have to see what the Nissan Leaf comes with in terms of warranties etc.

How very condescending. I am well aware of the multitude of differences between a hybrid and a pure EV, I was using it to demonstrate that the same argument has been levied at hybrids for years, and there isn't an ounce of evidence to support it. Whist there is nothing fundamentally wrong with your post above, I am saying that there is no evidence whatsoever that battery management will be a problem for production EVs.

The batteries will not last forever, and there will be a rate of decay in their capacity, but why the pessimism? If there was genuinely a massive problem with this, do you not think that Nissan would have delayed the production of the Leaf until such time that it was more viable? Show me something that proves otherwise by all means.

Even if a battery dies after 10 years and costs £10,000 to replace, there will be a huge amount of value in the dead battery too. You don't just throw away precious metals when they are easily and economically recycled.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20022049-54.html...

Thanks for the link. Quote: "Auto industry executives say to expect a 20 percent to 30 percent drop in range over 8 to 10 years."

Hardly apocalyptic then.

[renrut]

Mr Gear said:

renrut said:

Mr Gear said:

You know these will be equipped with very sophisticated battery management software/hardware? Have a look on Autotrader, and find me an advert for a cheap Prius or Insight that says something along the lines of: "For sale due to knackered battery"

I think you need to go research battery technology and the difference between hybrids and pure EVs a bit more. The battery tech has got to the point where even at optimum charging and cycling, Lithium based (and most of other fancy metal batteries) have a defined lifetime due to decay. This is a fundamental of the chemistry involved.

They've been trying to crack improved battery capacity for a long long time (EV1 anyone) and to date the best commercially viable technologies still suffer from these effects. Oh there are a few types bandied about in research papers etc but non that can be manufactured on the scales discussed for the Leaf et al.

An Insight or Prius won't have as apparent a problem as a pure EV due to the petrol engine masking any battery life shortcomings, all they'd see it as poorer mpg only as the engine has to cut in more often to recharge.

Personally I'm gonna have to see what the Nissan Leaf comes with in terms of warranties etc.

How very condescending. I am well aware of the multitude of differences between a hybrid and a pure EV, I was using it to demonstrate that the same argument has been levied at hybrids for years, and there isn't an ounce of evidence to support it. Whist there is nothing fundamentally wrong with your post above, I am saying that there is no evidence whatsoever that battery management will be a problem for production EVs.

The batteries will not last forever, and there will be a rate of decay in their capacity, but why the pessimism? If there was genuinely a massive problem with this, do you not think that Nissan would have delayed the production of the Leaf until such time that it was more viable? Show me something that proves otherwise by all means.

Even if a battery dies after 10 years and costs £10,000 to replace, there will be a huge amount of value in the dead battery too. You don't just throw away precious metals when they are easily and economically recycled.

Just to be condescending again as you liked it so much. If you realised the fundamental difference in operation you'd know that hybrid cars are far less dependant on the battery capacity than an EV. A hybrid car with a low capacity battery pack is tolerable, maybe not even noticeable to the average 8 mile a day type. An EV with a low capacity battery pack is near useless. A hybrid can use its ICE to keep it topped up at that lower level, an EV does not have that luxury.

The Leaf uses Lithium Manganese batteries. That variety have a service life of 10+ years (longer than lithium ion but still far short of less energy dense types like lead acid). That service life is assuming ideal conditions. Fancy control electronics and monitoring and charging will probably be able to maintain that. The car may well last the 8 year warranty but what will it be worth at the end of it? Most cars manage around 10% at 10 years from my experience so to stand a chance it needs to be worth at least £2.5K at 8 years old. How much would you pay for an 8yr old family hatchback with an engine that is broken beyond repair? Oh and it won't be worth much as spares either as they'll all be dead at 8-10yrs old so the market will be flooded. Nissan might get away with it but I can't imagine the public reaction will be kind.

The recycling of the batteries will be a given but so is the steel and aluminium used in the body. A new car might be worth £300 at the weighbridge when it costs £20K. Anyone got any figures for the recycling value by weight of completely used lithium batteries? Best I can find is for lithium ion at about $2 per lb.

Don't get me wrong I'm not wanting to kill the EV but its not 'the solution' for mainstream transport. I see hybrid and electric drivetrains as the future with the power still coming from some sort of ICE.

[geoffracing]

Mr Gear said:

Have you ever used an electric vehicle?

Edited by Mr Gear on Tuesday 9th November 13:04

No, but I was bumped by a Prius in a supermaket carpark, because it is so silent that I hadn't heard it arriving.
One will have to go back to the beginning of motoring and again have
a chap in front of each car with a flag
AND a horn.

Is that progress?
As anyhow electric cars also POLLUTE; it is all dust in the eyes.

[geoffracing]

thinfourth2 said:

[I'd love an electric car as then i can avoid petrol stations.

Now, there you are right! They stink and are dangerous.

However the time it takes to recharge is so discouraging.

On a parallel subject, I'm fed up with my 2-year-old Bosch screwdriver, for which I had bought 2 chargers so as to always have one ready: both chargers don't keep current for more than a quarter of an hour now.

So if an - expensive - electric car is to let one down after a year or two, I prefer a petrol BMW!

[Mr Gear]

geoffracing said:

Mr Gear said:

Have you ever used an electric vehicle?

No, but I was bumped by a Prius in a supermaket carpark, because it is so silent that I hadn't heard it arriving.
One will have to go back to the beginning of motoring and again have
a chap in front of each car with a flag
AND a horn.

Is that progress?
As anyhow electric cars also POLLUTE; it is all dust in the eyes.

Edited by Mr Gear on Tuesday 9th November 15:33

[thinfourth2]

geoffracing said:

thinfourth2 said:

[I'd love an electric car as then i can avoid petrol stations.

Now, there you are right! They stink and are dangerous.

However the time it takes to recharge is so discouraging.

For my daily commute an electric car would take less of my time then a petrol car to recharge

I have to take an extra ten minutes once a week to refill with petrol

To recharge an electric car i would need an extra 30 seconds a day to plug in and unplug an electric car.

[geoffracing]

However the time it takes to recharge is so discouraging.


[/quote]

For my daily commute an electric car would take less of my time then a petrol car to recharge

I have to take an extra ten minutes once a week to refill with petrol

To recharge an electric car i would need an extra 30 seconds a day to plug in and unplug an electric car.
[/quote]

I see what you mean, but even so before being able to re-use your car, you have to wait and wait...
while the petrol car is again ready after your 10-minute-refuelling.

[thinfourth2]

geoffracing said:

thinfourth2 said:

For my daily commute an electric car would take less of my time then a petrol car to recharge

I have to take an extra ten minutes once a week to refill with petrol

To recharge an electric car i would need an extra 30 seconds a day to plug in and unplug an electric car.

I see what you mean, but even so before being able to re-use your car, you have to wait and wait...
while the petrol car is again ready after your 10-minute-refuelling.

No you do this thing called sleep

So if i had an electric car i would sleep while it recharges

If i want to go a long distance i would use another car or hire one

We as a nation are happy enough to rent a van once a year when we need it but insist on owning a HUGE car to go a visit granny twice a year who lives 300miles away.

We don't even buy interesting huge cars we buy fecking people carriers

Its bonkers

[anything fast]

thinfourth2 said:

anything fast said:

thats really cheered me up!!!! i'd rather walk ta

Well walk then as electric cars are a big part of the future of motoring

And if you want to stick with the old traditional ways use a horse

nah... i will just drive my 5.7 litre supercharged yank tank and speed up global warming... mind you its less polluting than a horse or a cow!

[thinfourth2]

anything fast said:

thinfourth2 said:

anything fast said:

thats really cheered me up!!!! i'd rather walk ta

Well walk then as electric cars are a big part of the future of motoring

And if you want to stick with the old traditional ways use a horse

nah... i will just drive my 5.7 litre supercharged yank tank and speed up global warming... mind you its less polluting than a horse or a cow!

You belive in global warming



Oh dear

[renrut]

thinfourth2 said:

geoffracing said:

thinfourth2 said:

For my daily commute an electric car would take less of my time then a petrol car to recharge

I have to take an extra ten minutes once a week to refill with petrol

To recharge an electric car i would need an extra 30 seconds a day to plug in and unplug an electric car.

I see what you mean, but even so before being able to re-use your car, you have to wait and wait...
while the petrol car is again ready after your 10-minute-refuelling.

No you do this thing called sleep

So if i had an electric car i would sleep while it recharges

If i want to go a long distance i would use another car or hire one

We as a nation are happy enough to rent a van once a year when we need it but insist on owning a HUGE car to go a visit granny twice a year who lives 300miles away.

We don't even buy interesting huge cars we buy fecking people carriers

Its bonkers

The people carriers are usually driven by those with bounteous loins, the question isn't the distance its capacity.

2 cars per person isn't practical for the majority of people in urban city areas. I know a lot who live in flats where they are only allocated a single parking space per flat. Woe betide anyone who parks in the wrong space...

[anything fast]

thinfourth2 said:

anything fast said:

thinfourth2 said:

anything fast said:

thats really cheered me up!!!! i'd rather walk ta

Well walk then as electric cars are a big part of the future of motoring

And if you want to stick with the old traditional ways use a horse

nah... i will just drive my 5.7 litre supercharged yank tank and speed up global warming... mind you its less polluting than a horse or a cow!

You belive in global warming



Oh dear

not at all!! thats why i dont give 2 hoots!!

[Mr Gear]

anything fast said:

thinfourth2 said:

anything fast said:

thinfourth2 said:

anything fast said:

thats really cheered me up!!!! i'd rather walk ta

Well walk then as electric cars are a big part of the future of motoring

And if you want to stick with the old traditional ways use a horse

nah... i will just drive my 5.7 litre supercharged yank tank and speed up global warming... mind you its less polluting than a horse or a cow!

You belive in global warming



Oh dear

not at all!! thats why i dont give 2 hoots!!

How is it less polluting than a horse or cow?

[thinfourth2]

renrut said:

thinfourth2 said:

So if i had an electric car i would sleep while it recharges

If i want to go a long distance i would use another car or hire one

We as a nation are happy enough to rent a van once a year when we need it but insist on owning a HUGE car to go a visit granny twice a year who lives 300miles away.

We don't even buy interesting huge cars we buy fecking people carriers

Its bonkers

The people carriers are usually driven by those with bounteous loins, the question isn't the distance its capacity.

2 cars per person isn't practical for the majority of people in urban city areas. I know a lot who live in flats where they are only allocated a single parking space per flat. Woe betide anyone who parks in the wrong space...

Which takes me back to the point of an electric car will do 95% what you need so why do we buy huge cars that do that extra 5%.

We don't all run around in transits all day just incase we need to move a sofa.

Our current car culture is hugely wasteful in space and resources just look around you on your commute home and count how many cars are single occupant. And i'm not talking about petrolheads i'm talking about the sad tossers in their dull resale grey diesels in which the back doors have never been opened. We need a shift towards something with a smaller footprint and i don't mean carbonfoot print i mean the actual size and use of resources.

If there was a wholesale shift towards smaller cheaper transport we would have less congestion and less use of oil which is better for everyone.

I'm not a watermelon who hates freedom i just think that everyone having huge cars is dumb. It would be far better if everyone in citys drove a smaller car and hired a big one when they need or want it.

Does vauxhalls smallest car really need to weigh almost 1500Kg and be bigger then a landrover defender.

[Mr Gear]

thinfourth2 said:

Which takes me back to the point of an electric car will do 95% what you need so why do we buy huge cars that do that extra 5%.

We don't all run around in transits all day just incase we need to move a sofa.

Our current car culture is hugely wasteful in space and resources just look around you on your commute home and count how many cars are single occupant. And i'm not talking about petrolheads i'm talking about the sad tossers in their dull resale grey diesels in which the back doors have never been opened. We need a shift towards something with a smaller footprint and i don't mean carbonfoot print i mean the actual size and use of resources.

If there was a wholesale shift towards smaller cheaper transport we would have less congestion and less use of oil which is better for everyone.

I'm not a watermelon who hates freedom i just think that everyone having huge cars is dumb. It would be far better if everyone in citys drove a smaller car and hired a big one when they need or want it.

Does vauxhalls smallest car really need to weigh almost 1500Kg and be bigger then a landrover defender.

Couldn't have put it better myself, but last time I said something sensible like that, I was denounced as a "commie".

Ah well. The capitalist pigs are welcome to their Vauxhall Zafiras. I'll stick with my motorbike for commuting thanks.

Edited by Mr Gear on Wednesday 10th November 10:23

[thinfourth2]

Mr Gear said:

thinfourth2 said:

Which takes me back to the point of an electric car will do 95% what you need so why do we buy huge cars that do that extra 5%.

We don't all run around in transits all day just incase we need to move a sofa.

Our current car culture is hugely wasteful in space and resources just look around you on your commute home and count how many cars are single occupant. And i'm not talking about petrolheads i'm talking about the sad tossers in their dull resale grey diesels in which the back doors have never been opened. We need a shift towards something with a smaller footprint and i don't mean carbonfoot print i mean the actual size and use of resources.

If there was a wholesale shift towards smaller cheaper transport we would have less congestion and less use of oil which is better for everyone.

I'm not a watermelon who hates freedom i just think that everyone having huge cars is dumb. It would be far better if everyone in citys drove a smaller car and hired a big one when they need or want it.

Does vauxhalls smallest car really need to weigh almost 1500Kg and be bigger then a landrover defender.

Couldn't have putr it better myself, but last time I said something sensible like that, I was denounced as a "commie".

Ah well. The capitalist pigs are welcome to their Vauxhall Zafiras. I'll stick with my motorbike for commuting thanks.

Don't worry someone will be along any minute now to say electric cars are so dull and petrol cars are exciting

Before jumping into their vauxhall Zafira

and for those of you that don't know what a vauxhall Zafria looks like i have one pictured below

[renrut]

thinfourth2 said:

renrut said:

thinfourth2 said:

So if i had an electric car i would sleep while it recharges

If i want to go a long distance i would use another car or hire one

We as a nation are happy enough to rent a van once a year when we need it but insist on owning a HUGE car to go a visit granny twice a year who lives 300miles away.

We don't even buy interesting huge cars we buy fecking people carriers

Its bonkers

The people carriers are usually driven by those with bounteous loins, the question isn't the distance its capacity.

2 cars per person isn't practical for the majority of people in urban city areas. I know a lot who live in flats where they are only allocated a single parking space per flat. Woe betide anyone who parks in the wrong space...

Which takes me back to the point of an electric car will do 95% what you need so why do we buy huge cars that do that extra 5%.

We don't all run around in transits all day just incase we need to move a sofa.

Our current car culture is hugely wasteful in space and resources just look around you on your commute home and count how many cars are single occupant. And i'm not talking about petrolheads i'm talking about the sad tossers in their dull resale grey diesels in which the back doors have never been opened. We need a shift towards something with a smaller footprint and i don't mean carbonfoot print i mean the actual size and use of resources.

If there was a wholesale shift towards smaller cheaper transport we would have less congestion and less use of oil which is better for everyone.

I'm not a watermelon who hates freedom i just think that everyone having huge cars is dumb. It would be far better if everyone in citys drove a smaller car and hired a big one when they need or want it.

Does vauxhalls smallest car really need to weigh almost 1500Kg and be bigger then a landrover defender.

Can't disagree with you on the majority of that. Very few need anything more than a 125 on their morning commute but everyone wants 'better' than what they've got and some people need it to facilitate their lifestyle (meant in an unpompous way). Try telling someone they've got to make do with something worse and they'll say 'its my money I'll spend it how I like', the crux of capitalist society.

Factors leading to bigger more wasteful cars as far as I can see it:

Perceived Value - if you have it you'll spend it. A well specced big car is often not a lot more than a well specced small city except you 'get more car for your money'.

Safety - no one (esp those with children in the car) will be happy about their car being a deathtrap. That 'deathtrap' might be a 4* vs a 5* at NCAP but thats all perception. Impact safety is massively improved with extra metal = weight.

Status - since days of old big fuel hungry car = status. 9/10 people like to have a bit of it, its part of feeling like you're doing well in life. turning up in an S class is seen to be more successful than turning up in a 1992 Metro. If the car is more expensive and flashier then it will acquire status.

Necessity - I knew a guy who couldn't actually fit into anything smaller than a focus. He was big in all dimensions. If you need to design a car to fit 98% of the population distribution into it to maximise sales you need to give a bit more leg and head room. You might need a big car, not just on the need to say pick up kids from nursery (yuk) but maybe you have a job that makes having a larger car easier - sales rep with a large boot full of samples? Eng who does a lot of off site testing? Or possibly just do intergalactic mileages and a larger car makes it less stress and strain - small cars are generally still not as good as big ones over long distances. Or how about you coach a young football team for a small club and use parents cars rather than hiring buses?

Economics - How much is it to hire a big car for a day? £50 maybe? So you could buy an electric car then hire a big car to use it for that 300 mile trip you make once a month to visit friends/relatives/whatevers. What if you decide its such a long way you may as well make a weekend of it? Well that'll make it more like £120 so that you can set of friday and come back sunday night. Do that 10x a year thats over £1000 before you've started. Add time and hassle for arranging the hire car, drop offs, pick ups etc, the occasional times they send the wrong one. How much does it cost to run around in a big car all year vs a small car? For some people it won't be very much, for others it will be huge. Mostly those it doesn't suit won't have a big car anyway. There are a lot of factors here and I'm sure a lot of people get it very wrong (diesels for the 2 mile commute?) but public education seems to be stuck on the co2 and speed headlines.

Congestion - Congestion is a factor of numbers of cars rather than size. The extra 3 foot in length isn't going to make a queue that much longer and shouldn't make any difference to waiting times. It won't improve. Interestingly the IET had a tiny article on some analysis of behaviour if you gave people more efficient cars - they simply drove more. If that is the case then congestion would be worse not better.

Performance - no point having a car that is fast and nimble because driving fast will only kill you faster (so we're told). Also the rate engine and handling tech is improving you can get 1980s (cheap) ferrari/porsche performance in an average family saloon and it uses half the fuel too. So there is less impetus to build smaller lighter cars to get good performance and less desire and need in the consumer to sacrifice weight and capacity for a quick thrill on a sunday morning.

Until there is a sea change in one or more of those factors above I can't see the general public being happy with a single small car and hiring a large car as needed. The obvious trend for small cars to bloat over their lifecycle suggests its going the other way if anything.

Only thing that would possibly work would be something like the Japanese Kei car system, massively cheaper but the car HAS to be both dimensionally and performance and consumption small.

[annodomini2]

renrut said:

Economics - How much is it to hire a big car for a day? £50 maybe? So you could buy an electric car then hire a big car to use it for that 300 mile trip you make once a month to visit friends/relatives/whatevers. What if you decide its such a long way you may as well make a weekend of it? Well that'll make it more like £120 so that you can set of friday and come back sunday night. Do that 10x a year thats over £1000 before you've started. Add time and hassle for arranging the hire car, drop offs, pick ups etc, the occasional times they send the wrong one. How much does it cost to run around in a big car all year vs a small car? For some people it won't be very much, for others it will be huge. Mostly those it doesn't suit won't have a big car anyway. There are a lot of factors here and I'm sure a lot of people get it very wrong (diesels for the 2 mile commute?) but public education seems to be stuck on the co2 and speed headlines.

Missed the fact that certainly for the near term, electric cars are vastly more expensive.

But you don't cover fuel, electric cars in terms of fuel are generally accepted to be cheaper to run.

Assuming the depreciation on a new electric car is in line with typical conventionally fuelled cars, in your scenario the electric car would have to be cheaper overall by a £1000 a year to be cost effective. Obviously this assumes new sales only.