991.2 GT3 sell now or keep dilemma

[Taffy66]

isaldiri said:

Digga said:

Forget the media, it is the stock markets that seem to have reacted in the most extreme manner.

Well it depends really. Only last week we were practically at all time highs (in the US markets anyway). We probably aren't at 2008 or even 2011 type general economic weakness......yet. markets always overreact especially initially.

A week last Monday purely by coincidence my father cashed in a large amount of investments as it was needed elsewhere..I phoned him lunchtime today to remind him he'd be getting 14% less for them today in cash..Cheered him up no end..Just goes to show even in harsh times some lucky sods always seem to benefit from it.

[av185]

Cheib said:

Markets hate uncertainty more than anything else....and it’s a real world issue for a lot of companies supply chain disturbance from factory shutdown in China etc and I assume hotels and airlines are bracing themselves for a potential huge drop in business.

One things for sure it will be another boom year for UK hotels and UK tourism generally.

[JulierPass]

angussampson said:

Sooo.....

After sooo much cogitation, umming and arrring, took the plunge and bought the car I’d wanted since I hung around with the skyline lads in the early 2000’s.....a 911 GT3...

Thanks to one of the members on here putting me in touch with a chap, I bought a superb 2018 (67) black GT3.

Very happy with the deal. Don’t change my cars much. Can’t imagine selling it for ‘long time’ ( love you Long time....!)

Apparently it hasn’t been on track, the previous owner, a chap, professional in his fifties, said he hadn’t been on track ( not that it should matter with such a car, built for it ), he bucked the trend and sold it, old school......privately.

I looked at quite a few at dealers, but it never felt quite right, they were oft. trying to hurry me, unduly...

Found a gem, in the end....

Thanks also to posters on this thread for, the insurance advice. Footman James for me so that I can take in a few trackdays. Too fast for the roads!

Congrats got any pics?

[vvvdan1vvv]

Look up Spanish flu 1918

[Yellow491]

av185 said:

Cheib said:

Markets hate uncertainty more than anything else....and it’s a real world issue for a lot of companies supply chain disturbance from factory shutdown in China etc and I assume hotels and airlines are bracing themselves for a potential huge drop in business.

One things for sure it will be another boom year for UK hotels and UK tourism generally.

How do you work that out,if the virus spreads,hotels and tourism will be on its knees,just what we need with record floods!

[Yellow491]

Taffy66 said:

isaldiri said:

Digga said:

Forget the media, it is the stock markets that seem to have reacted in the most extreme manner.

Well it depends really. Only last week we were practically at all time highs (in the US markets anyway). We probably aren't at 2008 or even 2011 type general economic weakness......yet. markets always overreact especially initially.

A week last Monday purely by coincidence my father cashed in a large amount of investments as it was needed elsewhere..I phoned him lunchtime today to remind him he'd be getting 14% less for them today in cash..Cheered him up no end..Just goes to show even in harsh times some lucky sods always seem to benefit from it.

Digga i think we may need to ban the welsh from oulton next week,outbreak in swansea area

[av185]

Yellow491 said:

av185 said:

Cheib said:

Markets hate uncertainty more than anything else....and it’s a real world issue for a lot of companies supply chain disturbance from factory shutdown in China etc and I assume hotels and airlines are bracing themselves for a potential huge drop in business.

One things for sure it will be another boom year for UK hotels and UK tourism generally.

How do you work that out,if the virus spreads,hotels and tourism will be on its knees,just what we need with record floods!

Folks wont want to risk flying and being stuck abroad but the British obsession with having a holiday at all costs will override everything and the huge spike in UK hotel bookings just this week backs this up.

[Taffy66]

Yellow491 said:

Digga i think we may need to ban the welsh from oulton next week,outbreak in swansea area

You only live 80 miles from Swansea compared to 60 miles for me,20 miles is nothing for a virus.Just heard the UK Goverment intends shutting all hotels for at least a year to stop the spread..Sounds like a good idea to me.What do you think.?

[Digga]

SL550M said:

Digga said:

I don't see a conspiracy, but it is nonetheless a very significant event; there is no precedent for it. This has never been seen before in world history.

Erm....the Black Death? That killed almost half the population of Europe in the 14th century. Sorry to be a pedant!

I don't mean the illness and contagion, but rather the response; the quarantine and control measures. Nothing before has had this level of global reaction.j

[Digga]

Taffy66 said:

Yellow491 said:

Digga i think we may need to ban the welsh from oulton next week,outbreak in swansea area

You only live 80 miles from Swansea compared to 60 miles for me,20 miles is nothing for a virus.Just heard the UK Goverment intends shutting all hotels for at least a year to stop the spread..Sounds like a good idea to me.What do you think.?

Well my first two years of school were in Cardiff, and Welsh was the first second language I learned, so despite being very English, I am forever part Cymreag.

But in summary, yes a ban seems a good idea.

[Taffy66]

Digga said:

I don't mean the illness and contagion, but rather the response; the quarantine and control measures. Nothing before has had this level of global reaction.j

Foot and Mouth in 2000 completely shut down the countryside and that disease never posed a threat to human health..Either they're over reacting or they know something about this virus they deem to be best kept a secret form the public.
If it continues to escalate over the next few months i can see the UK Govt shutting down all schools and other places of regular mass congregation..My wife has been told to go shopping tomorrow for sis months of canned long lasting food supplies..Better to be safe than sorry.

[2010spy]

Talking about insurance. My GTS is £500. My GT3 Touring is £400. Same mileage. Perhaps they agree with Mr D that’s its not a proper GT3

[DRH986]

Sorry for the thread drift but I too have been puzzled by the apparent concern over something that on the face of it is just another type of flu. But it looks to me that the reason the authorities are so concerned about the coronavirus is due to the transmission rate. Apparently with normal flu, each infected person on average passes it on to 1.5 other people, whereas with this one it's looking more like 3.5. Now that doesn't sound a lot different until you do some simple compounding calculations.

So for normal flu, if you look at an onward transmission chain 5 deep (i.e. person A to B to C to D to E to F), then starting with one flu case, by the time you get to 5 links down the chain you end up with only about 7.5 other people infected. However for the coronavirus, you end up with 525 people infected.

Take the transmission chain to 10 links and normal flu has infected 57 people, while coronavirus has infected 276,000.

So whilst the death rate may be similar, the actual numbers of deaths and hospital cases will be drastically more at those levels of transmission and the health service would be completely overwhelmed. Which must surely also increase the death rate if people can't get treatment that normal flu victims would get.

Happy to be corrected by any medics or statisticians!

[jcosh]

2010spy said:

Talking about insurance. My GTS is £500. My GT3 Touring is £400. Same mileage. Perhaps they agree with Mr D that’s its not a proper GT3

Who’s the insurer if you dont mind me asking?

[Cheib]

DRH986 said:

Sorry for the thread drift but I too have been puzzled by the apparent concern over something that on the face of it is just another type of flu. But it looks to me that the reason the authorities are so concerned about the coronavirus is due to the transmission rate. Apparently with normal flu, each infected person on average passes it on to 1.5 other people, whereas with this one it's looking more like 3.5. Now that doesn't sound a lot different until you do some simple compounding calculations.

So for normal flu, if you look at an onward transmission chain 5 deep (i.e. person A to B to C to D to E to F), then starting with one flu case, by the time you get to 5 links down the chain you end up with only about 7.5 other people infected. However for the coronavirus, you end up with 525 people infected.

Take the transmission chain to 10 links and normal flu has infected 57 people, while coronavirus has infected 276,000.

So whilst the death rate may be similar, the actual numbers of deaths and hospital cases will be drastically more at those levels of transmission and the health service would be completely overwhelmed. Which must surely also increase the death rate if people can't get treatment that normal flu victims would get.

Happy to be corrected by any medics or statisticians!

That is a very good summary as I understand it. Basically it’s very good at spreading!

I believe though with a virus like this that the mortality rate tends to get lower over time....there will be slight different strains and the most virile will obviously kill its host quicker so has less chance to spread. So by a self selection process it becomes less virile over time.

[ben5575]

vvvdan1vvv said:

Look up Spanish flu 1918

Or Bird Flu in 2006 which was predicted to kill 750,000 people in the UK, hence the panic buying of the now proven to be ineffective tamiflu.

Or swine flu in 2009...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26954482

[DT398]

I’m in New Zealand at the moment and a single confirmed case here (someone who just got back from Iran) has lead to panic buying and huge queues at the supermarkets apparently. Bonkers.

[vvvdan1vvv]

Now look at how many people were thought to have died from Spanish flu. Seems this topic shouldn’t be on a Porsche thread though?

[PS2018]

Net number of cases has fallen for 5th day running, is now <43k. I’m not seeing that number reported anywhere. This thing is already passed its peak and is trending lower because recoveries are easily outnumbering the fresh cases.
Coronavirus is over. I’m not making light of the 3k dead so far, it is tragic of course- and the final number will likely be 6k, but referring to the transmission projections written above - it just isn’t happening like that.
Let’s get back to whether we need to sell or keep a 991.2 GT3!

[Yellow491]

av185 said:

Yellow491 said:

av185 said:

Cheib said:

Markets hate uncertainty more than anything else....and it’s a real world issue for a lot of companies supply chain disturbance from factory shutdown in China etc and I assume hotels and airlines are bracing themselves for a potential huge drop in business.

One things for sure it will be another boom year for UK hotels and UK tourism generally.

How do you work that out,if the virus spreads,hotels and tourism will be on its knees,just what we need with record floods!

Folks wont want to risk flying and being stuck abroad but the British obsession with having a holiday at all costs will override everything and the huge spike in UK hotel bookings just this week backs this up.

Where have you got that info from,hotels last year had there worst year ever.big chains on there knees,slashed prices,air B&B etc.Tourist associations confirm numbers down big time,now no chinese or japanese and if they control travel if a outbreak will kill off some large hotels in the uk,especially london.