458 prices

[jonny finance]

I have been following 458 prices for over 2 years and have noticed very nearly zero movement. If anything 'firm' comes to mind at present. For me 2 reasons - 1 warm reception regarding 488, so much negative talk about the engine, sound and emotive stuff. Saw my first RHD last week and it sure isn't a looker! And 2 - previous model price climbs. For the foreseeable whilst a good 430 seems to be over 100k a 458 will always command a wallet waving extra wedge

[sealtt]

Even though the prices have stayed flat at £140k, in real terms (vs the index of 'used ferraris') they have gotten cheaper.

The market is very hard to make sense of, there are many factors at play which means that bizarre things can happen - like a 5 year old F430 can go up in value simply by getting a bit older, it's not become rarer or more desirable, just a bit older and a bit more outdated and so goes up an extra few %

I also think the dealers play a big role in moving the markets up opportunistically. Control the supply of stock, control the supply of finance, etc...

Buy it with the expectation of £15k/year for depreciation & spread (well for 2-3 year ownership). If you are happy with that, go for it. Though always leave a little contingency! If it goes up or doesn't drop that is a little lottery win, not a base case or expectation.

[Slickhillsy]

sealtt said:

... it's not become rarer or more desirable.

Disagree on both points here...

Rarer, think you'll find it has as many have made their way to far flung RHD markets notably Asia.

More desirable, actually the 430 has aged really well and is a popular option for buyers when not fixed on a specific car ( say also considering a Gallardo or something Pork).

Take both of the above and throw in the fact demand is out stripping supply of good cars then why wouldn't you see price hikes.

Why even wouldn't the surpass a 458? Have you seen recent 328 GTS prices, I was shocked to see them up over £130k!!!! That is definately stretching it a bit but shows anything can happen in this market.

[sealtt]

Slickhillsy said:

Disagree on both points here...

Rarer, think you'll find it has as many have made their way to far flung RHD markets notably Asia.

More desirable, actually the 430 has aged really well and is a popular option for buyers when not fixed on a specific car ( say also considering a Gallardo or something Pork).

Take both of the above and throw in the fact demand is out stripping supply of good cars then why wouldn't you see price hikes.

Why even wouldn't the surpass a 458? Have you seen recent 328 GTS prices, I was shocked to see them up over £130k!!!! That is definately stretching it a bit but shows anything can happen in this market.

It was just meant to be an example of what I meant by a weird market, wasn't really trying to make a specific comment about the F430. Though on that side of things, who doesn't like a little discussion...

(1) I absolutely agree the F430 has aged well, I think it's a proper classic Ferrari design actually - I think in some years to come we will look back at it as one of the ones that they got really 'right'
(2) Regardless of that, I don't think the past 6 months of ageing have made that much difference! Certainly not that the price of them should have gone up!
(3) On supply, look at Voicey's data - supply is approx the same since March, but price level is up 10%
(4) On demand, yes - the demand is obviously increasing, and that was my point - demand is increasing because of weird factors which are not usually present in the market for 5-10 year old used cars, such as speculative buying on expectations of being able to buy depreciation free, if not for profit!!

[JayK12]

z4RRSchris said:

that's exactly what I'm saying, since 2008 we have seen an asset bubble. The prices of tax free assets such as non cars, art, wine, property, etc has increased massively.

we will see 348/355/360/430's back at 2008/2010 prices.

Any idiots who think otherwise should take a look at history

that said I'm thinking of putting 80k into a Gallardo but I'm prepared for it to be worth 50k when the market turns

Agreed. But how long it will take who knows, but the fall in prices is on its way.

[Nano2nd]

JayK12 said:

but the fall in prices is on its way.

and you know this how?

[mickyblue]

When I came to buy this year, based on my budget I looked at F430s at the top-end of their price range, and 458s at the bottom end. After looking at a number of cars, I felt that the price gap between the models was likely to shrink over the coming year - so I went for a top-end F430 with the expectation that I would be able to swap for reasonable money in about 12 months.

I'm very happy with the car - it's in much better condition (and has better history) than any 458 I would have been able to afford. It is my first Ferrari, and having lived with it for a few months I'm not sure I will be swapping for a 458 - at least not any time soon. It is clearly a faster, more sophisticated and modern car - but I don't think I need the added performance and sophistication and I'm not sure I'd enjoy it any more.

I don't expect to make money on the F430 - that's not why I bought it. Hopefully, however, the prices will hold-up reasonably well over the next few years - it will be interesting to see what happens to the price gap between them.

Micky

[_Leg_]

Durzel said:

You can always make more money, you can't make more time.

Ahh Legisms spread across PH....it should end "So spend it wisely" mate.

[Durzel]

_Leg_ said:

Ahh Legisms spread across PH....it should end "So spend it wisely" mate.

I also like: "Money comes and goes, time just goes".

[z4RRSchris]

Nano2nd said:

JayK12 said:

but the fall in prices is on its way.

and you know this how?

because history tell us that asset prices follow well defined patterns driven by external indicators. At the moment it's due to cheap credit, a pretty healthy economy in the UK and lack of returns in the traditional markets.

If you think 430 (like yours) prices will continue to rise you are a muppet.

[Nano2nd]

z4RRSchris said:

If you think 430 (like yours) prices will continue to rise you are a muppet.

[allister]

z4RRSchris said:

Nano2nd said:

JayK12 said:

but the fall in prices is on its way.

and you know this how?

because history tell us that asset prices follow well defined patterns driven by external indicators. At the moment it's due to cheap credit, a pretty healthy economy in the UK and lack of returns in the traditional markets.

If you think 430 (like yours) prices will continue to rise you are a muppet.

I'm not worried..... If Ferrari's lose 90% of there current value and fall to just 10% of where they are now, I can always trade my F430 in for a Z4 like your's Chris.

[dang2407]

Price will fall, and then prices will rise again. You only lose money if you have to sell.

[SlartiF430]

You will depreciate far quicker than your car. In fact your 458 will outlive you. So just buy what you can afford and if you're really worried about losing money on it, make some more to cover it.

[graeme4130]

Nano2nd said:

z4RRSchris said:

no modern mass produced Ferrari will go up. We are in an asset bubble, just go in believing that the car could be worth half in 2 years.

yeah okay, you seen the 430 prices thread? or whats been happen to 360s? if you bought a year or two ago and sold today the price has most definitely gone up - which is in stark contrast to what your saying here

op the 458 a little more difficult to call, one thing it won't be is "worth half in 2 years"

Market wise, we're in very unusual times. I wouldn't want to call a 2 year price on cars in this current climate
It may well continue as is, in which case, a 458 is better than money in the bank, but on the other hand, it may return to the market 'norm' and start to fall, or any economic bubble may burst and suddenly it's worth half
As pessimistic as it is, you'd be better off going into this assuming the worst, and enjoying anything better

[jasonwdh]

z4RRSchris said:

Nano2nd said:

JayK12 said:

but the fall in prices is on its way.

and you know this how?

because history tell us that asset prices follow well defined patterns driven by external indicators. At the moment it's due to cheap credit, a pretty healthy economy in the UK and lack of returns in the traditional markets.

If you think 430 (like yours) prices will continue to rise you are a muppet.

I think you've missed one very important external indicator out which wasn't as prevalent in earlier crashes; a lot of RHD cars are now sold to buyers abroad (particularly China). Demand now massively outstrips supply, you mention the 430 - try getting hold of a manual! Cheap credit is a factor but a lot of buyers are cash buyers who don't need to sell, there's no CGT so (excuse the pun) it's almost become a safe place to park your money.

[sealtt]

jasonwdh said:

I think you've missed one very important external indicator out which wasn't as prevalent in earlier crashes; a lot of RHD cars are now sold to buyers abroad (particularly China). Demand now massively outstrips supply, you mention the 430 - try getting hold of a manual! Cheap credit is a factor but a lot of buyers are cash buyers who don't need to sell, there's no CGT so (excuse the pun) it's almost become a safe place to park your money.

Why would China want RHD cars?

[jasonwdh]

sealtt said:

jasonwdh said:

I think you've missed one very important external indicator out which wasn't as prevalent in earlier crashes; a lot of RHD cars are now sold to buyers abroad (particularly China). Demand now massively outstrips supply, you mention the 430 - try getting hold of a manual! Cheap credit is a factor but a lot of buyers are cash buyers who don't need to sell, there's no CGT so (excuse the pun) it's almost become a safe place to park your money.

Why would China want RHD cars?

I don't know personally - was told many, many RHD cars are sent out there by someone who does just that. Maybe it's some weird snob-value thing they have going on?

[JayK12]

jasonwdh said:

sealtt said:

jasonwdh said:

I think you've missed one very important external indicator out which wasn't as prevalent in earlier crashes; a lot of RHD cars are now sold to buyers abroad (particularly China). Demand now massively outstrips supply, you mention the 430 - try getting hold of a manual! Cheap credit is a factor but a lot of buyers are cash buyers who don't need to sell, there's no CGT so (excuse the pun) it's almost become a safe place to park your money.

Why would China want RHD cars?

I don't know personally - was told many, many RHD cars are sent out there by someone who does just that. Maybe it's some weird snob-value thing they have going on?

Yes, they like to show they can afford a RHD which is more expensive, Japan take on LHD.........strange world.

[sealtt]

JayK12 said:

Yes, they like to show they can afford a RHD which is more expensive, Japan take on LHD.........strange world.

surely if they wanted to show off they should just buy a 458 or 488 rather than a 430? Regardless of whether it is RHD or LHD...

From what I understand, the point with Japan buying LHD is that the cars were originally designed to be LHD and so that is the authentic way to drive it. Obviously not the case with a RHD Ferrari in China, though might make sense for a classic Rolls or such like.

However without any hard facts this is all speculation and probably pretty irrelevant to the price increases overall I'd imagine.

Edited by sealtt on Monday 16th November 18:20