How long do you think Till There are Proper Electric cars?
Discussion
AmitG said:
ruggedscotty said:
Toyota and Honda have invested interest in hydrogen.... hydrogen is not the way forward as it requires infrastructure much like fuel stations that are needed to support. You also need to convey hydrogen to the point of use. Electricity is much easier to transport. Sort out rapid charging even if you were able give 100-200 miles in a few minutes people would adjust to this and it would work.
Agree, but it leads to the question - what do the Japanese know about hydrogen that we don't? Toyota and Honda might make dull cars, but they are not stupid. And they are not going to bet the company on a technology with basic problems that cannot be overcome. They must have thought this through.It makes me wonder.
If someone told you that they were developing a phone or laptop that could be rapidly changed but only at special shops, would you think it was a great idea or would you continue to change you phone at home /work etc.
98elise said:
If someone told you that they were developing a phone or laptop that could be rapidly changed but only at special shops, would you think it was a great idea or would you continue to change you phone at home /work etc.
That's quite a good analogy if you're the sort of person that likes rubbish analogies.98elise said:
AmitG said:
ruggedscotty said:
Toyota and Honda have invested interest in hydrogen.... hydrogen is not the way forward as it requires infrastructure much like fuel stations that are needed to support. You also need to convey hydrogen to the point of use. Electricity is much easier to transport. Sort out rapid charging even if you were able give 100-200 miles in a few minutes people would adjust to this and it would work.
Agree, but it leads to the question - what do the Japanese know about hydrogen that we don't? Toyota and Honda might make dull cars, but they are not stupid. And they are not going to bet the company on a technology with basic problems that cannot be overcome. They must have thought this through.It makes me wonder.
If someone told you that they were developing a phone or laptop that could be rapidly changed but only at special shops, would you think it was a great idea or would you continue to change you phone at home /work etc.
herewego said:
It may be that they can't get the EV recharge down below say 30 mins
Well, the fact is they will be able to and the next generation of DC chargers will be capable of 350kW according to Tesla.Even now they are around 150kW, so 10 minutes on one would give you a good range extension - say 75-80 miles.
From memory, the Model 3 is expected to take around 15 minutes to fully charge on a V3 Supercharger.
98elise said:
They [Toyota and Honda] can't change physics. Hydrogen has some serious fundamental drawbacks with only one positive, which is quick filling time.
Completely agree. And that's exactly it. It's a basic observation. The Japanese must know this. They - arguably the best automotive engineers on the planet - are not going to overlook fundamental flaws in a "bet the company" technology that is going to cost billions to bring to market. So why are they still going with it?There must be a reason. I'd genuinely like to understand their position on this.
AmitG said:
There must be a reason. I'd genuinely like to understand their position on this.
2 reasons:1) they are 'hedging their bets' No one knows what the future holds, it could well , ultimately be a hydrogen economy that succeeds (although not in the short term). These large OEMs have huge R&D budgets, those budgets will be spent (see point 2) so you may as well spend them on something unique
2) Marketing. OEMs are "technology led" broadly speaking. They all use engineering studies, research and future potential studies to boost there standing as high technology companies. For example, Honda also have a series of robots, not something that useful for a car manufacturer right now, but potentially, a massive income stream / new company direction in oh, 20, 40, 60, or even 100 years. Having a USP, despite that USP being esentially pointless helps build a brand.
Thanks Max_Torque. That would certainly go some way to explaining it.
IMHO the Japanese tend to think over the long term. I reckon they can see BEVs hitting a brick wall so they are going straight to the final solution, as it were.
The next few years are going to be interesting for sure.
IMHO the Japanese tend to think over the long term. I reckon they can see BEVs hitting a brick wall so they are going straight to the final solution, as it were.
The next few years are going to be interesting for sure.
ruggedscotty said:
terrific idea, but......
A street light is absolute tops these days 100w
A rapid charger is way into the Kw territory.
Massive upgrade of the infrastructure is needed to support this
In LA, they replaced 4500 sodium vapour streetlights with LED lights. That's saved them $9M per year in energy and the increased grid capacity has allowed them to invest in lampost chargers.A street light is absolute tops these days 100w
A rapid charger is way into the Kw territory.
Massive upgrade of the infrastructure is needed to support this
There's no need for all charging stations to be 100kW+. In areas where people park to go shopping, they won't care if the same amount of charge takes an hour instead of 10 minutes, as long as they have good access to charge points.
FurtiveFreddy said:
The Model 3 is expected to take around 15 minutes to fully charge on a V3 Supercharger.
Exactly where it needs to get to, not just for Tesla but all other EV's really. I love my leaf but if my days total work mileage is over 100 mile it gets left at home and I get a hire car or take the wife's petrol. I wouldn't tack another 30 - 60 minutes on my day to stop at a rapid charger.I've had a Zoe for a few years now.
If I had to pinpoint one change that could be made right now to make EVs more useful, it'd be to sort out the mess of different "schemes" with membership for charging points and have one, single, universally accepted membership that works for both subscription users needing regular charges and once-in-a-blue-moon types like me who generally charge at home and only need a topup elsewhere rarely.
I mean, just make the card readers on them work with contactless bank cards FFS. Or have the ones in a pay-and-display accept a code or QR scan from a ticket printed on the existing parking machine for whatever the fee is.
If I had to pinpoint one change that could be made right now to make EVs more useful, it'd be to sort out the mess of different "schemes" with membership for charging points and have one, single, universally accepted membership that works for both subscription users needing regular charges and once-in-a-blue-moon types like me who generally charge at home and only need a topup elsewhere rarely.
I mean, just make the card readers on them work with contactless bank cards FFS. Or have the ones in a pay-and-display accept a code or QR scan from a ticket printed on the existing parking machine for whatever the fee is.
This is why hydrogen will not be successful.... As someone has said, inductive charging, already being tested by Renault built into road surfaces and charging a vehicle whilst in motion, will be a game changer.
Charging posts will increase with a view to providing EV charging in the interim, and also enabling charging of autonomous vehicles which can locate and use the charger overnight without having to return to a central 'depot'. This will enable a roaming pool of on-demand transport which users will consume as a service, via an app, and controlled by IoT and machine learning to match demand, supply and charging requirements..
Cheers,
UV
FurtiveFreddy said:
Well, the fact is they will be able to and the next generation of DC chargers will be capable of 350kW according to Tesla.
Even now they are around 150kW, so 10 minutes on one would give you a good range extension - say 75-80 miles.
From memory, the Model 3 is expected to take around 15 minutes to fully charge on a V3 Supercharger.
So scenario you pull into a station wanting to fill up but sadly you have 8 cars waiting. (Frequently at petrol stations that I visit) suddenly that quick fill is approaching 2 hours Even now they are around 150kW, so 10 minutes on one would give you a good range extension - say 75-80 miles.
From memory, the Model 3 is expected to take around 15 minutes to fully charge on a V3 Supercharger.
Then tag on the issue of faulty charger and a bigger line but no one can go elsewhere as they are out of juice.
Solution is to fully charge for the trip but sometimes things go wrong.
Next is if the whole population had EVs you'd cause he national grid to collapse.
Welshbeef said:
FurtiveFreddy said:
Well, the fact is they will be able to and the next generation of DC chargers will be capable of 350kW according to Tesla.
Even now they are around 150kW, so 10 minutes on one would give you a good range extension - say 75-80 miles.
From memory, the Model 3 is expected to take around 15 minutes to fully charge on a V3 Supercharger.
So scenario you pull into a station wanting to fill up but sadly you have 8 cars waiting. (Frequently at petrol stations that I visit) suddenly that quick fill is approaching 2 hours Even now they are around 150kW, so 10 minutes on one would give you a good range extension - say 75-80 miles.
From memory, the Model 3 is expected to take around 15 minutes to fully charge on a V3 Supercharger.
Then tag on the issue of faulty charger and a bigger line but no one can go elsewhere as they are out of juice.
Solution is to fully charge for the trip but sometimes things go wrong.
Next is if the whole population had EVs you'd cause he national grid to collapse.
Yes, there are plenty of stories around of particular Supercharger stations having queues and/or faulty chargers, but then there are still a lot of Tesla owners using 'free' Supercharging when they really should be charging more at home. That will change gradually. They recently started penalising anyone overstaying. They'll refine it as more EVs hit the streets.
As for the grid collapsing, how long do you think it will be until the whole population has EVs and how do you think the grid will supplied by the time that happens?
FurtiveFreddy said:
The infrastructure is expanding to support more EVs. This is partly why Tesla have been so successful so far. They don't rely only on Governments and profit-making private companies to invest in infrastructure, they have been expanding the Supercharger and destination charging network as they sell more vehicles.
Yes, there are plenty of stories around of particular Supercharger stations having queues and/or faulty chargers, but then there are still a lot of Tesla owners using 'free' Supercharging when they really should be charging more at home. That will change gradually. They recently started penalising anyone overstaying. They'll refine it as more EVs hit the streets.
As for the grid collapsing, how long do you think it will be until the whole population has EVs and how do you think the grid will supplied by the time that happens?
EV sales are exponentially growing. Each one adds to the strain on the national grid. Yes, there are plenty of stories around of particular Supercharger stations having queues and/or faulty chargers, but then there are still a lot of Tesla owners using 'free' Supercharging when they really should be charging more at home. That will change gradually. They recently started penalising anyone overstaying. They'll refine it as more EVs hit the streets.
As for the grid collapsing, how long do you think it will be until the whole population has EVs and how do you think the grid will supplied by the time that happens?
It would be interesting to hear how many thousand more EVs from the current base would push the grid to full capacity /blackouts.
As we all know the hovels have no plans for additional UK power generation purely replacement of exiting output when it reaches the end of its life.
Last Friday, a record 8.7 gigawatts of electricity was supplied to the grid by solar.
Musk is leading the push for more and better solar panels to be installed and that technology is coming to the UK whether the Government invests in it or not.
It will happen and sales of EVs will help the process more than groups of politicians sitting around a table trying to agree amongst themselves how to do it.
Musk is leading the push for more and better solar panels to be installed and that technology is coming to the UK whether the Government invests in it or not.
It will happen and sales of EVs will help the process more than groups of politicians sitting around a table trying to agree amongst themselves how to do it.
I can't see fast charging being feasible for a mass market system. sure it can work for tesla now because almost no-one has an EV. but when everyone has one, each petrol station is going to need a lot of 350kw chargers. most places have around 10-15 pumps - so when everyone drives EV you might need a 5MW power supply into each station. worse than that, if charging takes 2x as long as a petrol fill, but only gives you say 1/2 the range, all other things being equal you'd need 4x as many pumps to cope with all the EVs being driven around, so you might need 4x that supply. seems like battery swapping is the only way forward, but last I saw tesla had dropped that idea?
c6r said:
I can't see fast charging being feasible for a mass market system. sure it can work for tesla now because almost no-one has an EV. but when everyone has one, each petrol station is going to need a lot of 350kw chargers. most places have around 10-15 pumps - so when everyone drives EV you might need a 5MW power supply into each station. worse than that, if charging takes 2x as long as a petrol fill, but only gives you say 1/2 the range, all other things being equal you'd need 4x as many pumps to cope with all the EVs being driven around, so you might need 4x that supply. seems like battery swapping is the only way forward, but last I saw tesla had dropped that idea?
The big point here is that the majority of EVs will charge at home/work and won't visit petrol stations. I know everyone has their edge case and there are people living in homes without driveways etc, but so far in 3,000 miles of driving I have used a public charger twice. I always charge at home overnight and haven't needed to use an ICE at any point.As battery capacity increases to a more reasonable amount (2-300 miles from full) then you should only have EVs at the equivalent of a petrol station on long journeys where people already stop for a lengthy break at motorway services etc, and can hopefully charge at plenty of points in the car park. Those locations will require a lot of power, but there won't need to be as many of them.
As more and more people buy EVs the infrastructure will increase to support that need. As what won't happen is people actually driving further. My daily commute takes around 7 to 8kWH. Off a std 10A mains socket, that means a charge time of around 4 hrs, which can be fitted into my day ANY time during the 22 hrs i'm not driving the car. So, just because your new EV has a 100kWh battery doesn't mean you're going to use that extra capacity, and hence need to charge it up.
As i have said many times, the 'end game' is people charging big capacity EVs at work (from local solar on company roof) and then taking most of that energy home with them to run their house overnight! A scheme that REDUCES the reliance on our grid (and leverages a high level of renewables too, and all pretty much for free (just needs tax incentives for companies to install the solar arrays)
As i have said many times, the 'end game' is people charging big capacity EVs at work (from local solar on company roof) and then taking most of that energy home with them to run their house overnight! A scheme that REDUCES the reliance on our grid (and leverages a high level of renewables too, and all pretty much for free (just needs tax incentives for companies to install the solar arrays)
Max_Torque said:
As more and more people buy EVs the infrastructure will increase to support that need. As what won't happen is people actually driving further. My daily commute takes around 7 to 8kWH. Off a std 10A mains socket, that means a charge time of around 4 hrs, which can be fitted into my day ANY time during the 22 hrs i'm not driving the car. So, just because your new EV has a 100kWh battery doesn't mean you're going to use that extra capacity, and hence need to charge it up.
As i have said many times, the 'end game' is people charging big capacity EVs at work (from local solar on company roof) and then taking most of that energy home with them to run their house overnight! A scheme that REDUCES the reliance on our grid (and leverages a high level of renewables too, and all pretty much for free (just needs tax incentives for companies to install the solar arrays)
I'm not sure I agree with that. As i have said many times, the 'end game' is people charging big capacity EVs at work (from local solar on company roof) and then taking most of that energy home with them to run their house overnight! A scheme that REDUCES the reliance on our grid (and leverages a high level of renewables too, and all pretty much for free (just needs tax incentives for companies to install the solar arrays)
Travel costs do come into families decisions to go somewhere or not. If it's practically free to do it or fractions of what an ICE would cost then you may start to see more and more frequent trips.
In turn that would be great for the UK tourism economy and spreading the wealth around the UK.
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