Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
gangzoom said:
And once Tesla start European/Asia Model 3 delivery do you think the figures will look any different?
Who knows for sure? I doubt the established manufacturers will twiddle their respective thumbs whilst Tesla take them out of their most profitable markets. It's disingenuous at best to focus entirely one market when competitors sell to many other markets, unless you have some kind of agenda.gangzoom said:
JPJPJP said:
Does that mean it is making 3s faster than it is selling them?
Bodes well for later months if so - as it gets to grips with fulfilment, those numbers might increase
Commitment to profit & positive cash. Essential to hit both to give some breathing space on bonds etc.
Tesla sold almost the same number of cars+trucks as BMW North America in August, and out sold Mercedes.Bodes well for later months if so - as it gets to grips with fulfilment, those numbers might increase
Commitment to profit & positive cash. Essential to hit both to give some breathing space on bonds etc.
Bare in mind the Model 3 is still production constained even without the cheaper version Tesla will end Q4 2018 selling more cars than BMW in North America.
BMW North American sales apparently fell 18% YoY in August, no idea about how BMW sales are going but if trend continues BMW will start feeling some serious issues. Am not sure any car company can withstand near 20% drop in sales in a 12 months period.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-outsold-bmw-pa...
https://insideevs.com/bmw-plug-in-electric-car-sal...
BMW EV & Plug-In Hybrid Sales Are Up 49% Globally, 646% In China
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/20/bmw-ev-plug-i...
The problem is that when there are such strong agendas at play the basic data can be skewed any which way. And the modern trend of penning a supposedly legitimate article around a third party, unaccountable tweet creates an awful lot more fluff than there ever used to be.
The interesting data in reality that is currently being published is the growth data in hybrids. That’s the really important and relevant data for the EV industry. The hybrid is the gateway product to the eventual EV market and real growth in that current market very strongly underpins future projected growth in the EV market.
Mr2Mike said:
Who knows for sure? I doubt the established manufacturers will twiddle their respective thumbs whilst Tesla take them out of their most profitable markets. It's disingenuous at best to focus entirely one market when competitors sell to many other markets, unless you have some kind of agenda.
I would hope BMW North America is screaming at BMW HQ to get a proper Model 3 rivial to market ASAP, and not just an X3 with a battery stuffed in.Tesla has an agenda which I fully support and its one of the reasons I have bought a Tesla. Their aim to convert all passenger car sales to EVs ASAP. Judging by how Model 3 sales are going I would say any manfacture who isn't working flat out on an EV is on borrowed time.
gangzoom said:
Tesla has an agenda which I fully support and its one of the reasons I have bought a Tesla. Their aim to convert all passenger car sales to EVs ASAP. Judging by how Model 3 sales are going I would say any manfacture who isn't working flat out on an EV is on borrowed time.
But you simply can’t make that judgement on the current sales figures because they are fulfilment of pre-orders and there is no data or evidence yet to support any claim that such numbers are a new norm in direct month on month product sales and that BMW must roll off an extra 20.000 EVs a month to compete. We need to wait until we clear the delivery of the 500,000 pre-orders before we can see true monthly demand to contrast against the competition.
DonkeyApple said:
But you simply can’t make that judgement on the current sales figures because they are fulfilment of pre-orders and there is no data or evidence yet to support any claim that such numbers are a new norm in direct month on month product sales and that BMW must roll off an extra 20.000 EVs a month to compete.
We need to wait until we clear the delivery of the 500,000 pre-orders before we can see true monthly demand to contrast against the competition.
it depends on you POV though. 500k pre-orders before anyone drove the car is probably the most for any vehicle in history which is pretty good evidence of strong market demand.We need to wait until we clear the delivery of the 500,000 pre-orders before we can see true monthly demand to contrast against the competition.
It could be argued market demand will become higher once test drives become available.
However Tesla have it pretty easy at the moment due to lack of realistic competitors, lets wait until after 2020 and see what Tesla sales are vs the EV competition, only then can we judge how they are viewed.
Questions are now being raised over the Boards ability to govern due to repeated unpredictable behaviour by their CEO. The Tesla Bonds now cost 17% of the value to insure and the rating on said Bonds is 1 notch away from Distressed Status. In my opinion Musks crazy behaviour is a Tesla ops barometer. Things must be terrible at work if he's going the big crazy on twitter. Who in their right mind would invest in this guy
WestyCarl said:
DonkeyApple said:
But you simply can’t make that judgement on the current sales figures because they are fulfilment of pre-orders and there is no data or evidence yet to support any claim that such numbers are a new norm in direct month on month product sales and that BMW must roll off an extra 20.000 EVs a month to compete.
We need to wait until we clear the delivery of the 500,000 pre-orders before we can see true monthly demand to contrast against the competition.
it depends on you POV though. 500k pre-orders before anyone drove the car is probably the most for any vehicle in history which is pretty good evidence of strong market demand.We need to wait until we clear the delivery of the 500,000 pre-orders before we can see true monthly demand to contrast against the competition.
It could be argued market demand will become higher once test drives become available.
However Tesla have it pretty easy at the moment due to lack of realistic competitors, lets wait until after 2020 and see what Tesla sales are vs the EV competition, only then can we judge how they are viewed.
RJG46 said:
p1stonhead said:
But he openly said he would spend his last penny on his companies and live in their basement if he had to.
Can we believe that when we see it. He does have a rather strange relationship with the truth.I read that when he first invested in Tesla he had earmarked around half his fortune for the venture. It wasn't long though before he had to put the other half in as well. On an investment which was incredibly risky and could easily fail.
His attitude to risk is something about him that I find astounding.
EddieSteadyGo said:
His attitude to risk is something about him that I find astounding.
Yes, especially with his software releases that introduce phantom braking for no reason when doing 70 on a motorway or the early days of "no need to hold the steering wheel, in fact, climb in the back, passenger seat, whatever you fancy" before the regulators tugged him, I know your point was about investment risk but he looks at risk in general very differently and not always for the better. . Heres Johnny said:
Yes, especially with his software releases that introduce phantom braking for no reason when doing 70 on a motorway or the early days of "no need to hold the steering wheel, in fact, climb in the back, passenger seat, whatever you fancy" before the regulators tugged him, I know your point was about investment risk but he looks at risk in general very differently and not always for the better. .
Yes, I'm sure this is true. His mindset is hard to empathise with - and it could also be linked to why he gets into pointless and unwinnable spats on Twitter. Very unusual.RobDickinson said:
We need to wait for them to sell half a million before we can start counting them 
Don’t be so dense. You have to work through the pre-orders before you see ongoing demand and sales. This really is not difficult stuff. It would have been covered at any competent school surely?
Burwood said:
From Whatcar Reliability Survey, released yesterday. Tesla now worse than Landrover. The good news is it doesn't seem to impact LR. The big negative is all the warranty work which is very expensive.
What is of mild interest is that you can draw some very clear correlations between how Tesla is run, how their product is built and it’s quality with Peter Wheeler’s TVR. The product quality is abysmal, almost 70s level of inconsistency. Only a true brand fan can turn a blind eye to paying that much money for such a poor product. And that issue means product keeps coming back to service centres for repairs that should never have been needed and each event eats into that original sales margin.
Without Musk’s persona and gravitas this is not a product that any Western premium consumer would ever have tolerated.
Given my love of TVRs and Range Rovers, I really own got to want a Tesla.
DonkeyApple said:
What is of mild interest is that you can draw some very clear correlations between how Tesla is run, how their product is built and it’s quality with Peter Wheeler’s TVR.
The product quality is abysmal, almost 70s level of inconsistency. Only a true brand fan can turn a blind eye to paying that much money for such a poor product. And that issue means product keeps coming back to service centres for repairs that should never have been needed and each event eats into that original sales margin.
Without Musk’s persona and gravitas this is not a product that any Western premium consumer would ever have tolerated.
Given my love of TVRs and Range Rovers, I really own got to want a Tesla.
Interesting stats, my Model S has been fault free in the 5k since I picked it up the second time...The product quality is abysmal, almost 70s level of inconsistency. Only a true brand fan can turn a blind eye to paying that much money for such a poor product. And that issue means product keeps coming back to service centres for repairs that should never have been needed and each event eats into that original sales margin.
Without Musk’s persona and gravitas this is not a product that any Western premium consumer would ever have tolerated.
Given my love of TVRs and Range Rovers, I really own got to want a Tesla.
The first time I picked it up it had a cracked roof and a paint swirl....i knew about the paint swirl (dealer had phoned to advise they couldn't rectify in time so I agreed to pick up and return with a courtesy car to cover repairs) but no-one knew about the crack roof (full glass panoramic) until we left the dealers. Turned round and headed straight back obviously. They were shocked etc and to be fair the service was very good at managing the whole repair, keeping me informed etc and i got to thrash their loaner around for 2 weeks.
I traded a Lexus for the Tesla and the built quality on that was ahead but not IMHO by a massive amount. I love the car but I'm not a fan boy who doesn't see the faults with car, service and company and not criticise accordingly,
My brother has a Range Rover which is no stranger to the dealerships around him, and his TVR sits mainly in his garage gathering dust...
arfursleep said:
Interesting stats, my Model S has been fault free in the 5k since I picked it up the second time...
The first time I picked it up it had a cracked roof and a paint swirl....i knew about the paint swirl (dealer had phoned to advise they couldn't rectify in time so I agreed to pick up and return with a courtesy car to cover repairs) but no-one knew about the crack roof (full glass panoramic) until we left the dealers. Turned round and headed straight back obviously. They were shocked etc and to be fair the service was very good at managing the whole repair, keeping me informed etc and i got to thrash their loaner around for 2 weeks.
I traded a Lexus for the Tesla and the built quality on that was ahead but not IMHO by a massive amount. I love the car but I'm not a fan boy who doesn't see the faults with car, service and company and not criticise accordingly,
My brother has a Range Rover which is no stranger to the dealerships around him, and his TVR sits mainly in his garage gathering dust...
Good post - I feel sure that DonkeyApple is teasing some of the more enthusiastic Tesla supporters for a little bit of sport The first time I picked it up it had a cracked roof and a paint swirl....i knew about the paint swirl (dealer had phoned to advise they couldn't rectify in time so I agreed to pick up and return with a courtesy car to cover repairs) but no-one knew about the crack roof (full glass panoramic) until we left the dealers. Turned round and headed straight back obviously. They were shocked etc and to be fair the service was very good at managing the whole repair, keeping me informed etc and i got to thrash their loaner around for 2 weeks.
I traded a Lexus for the Tesla and the built quality on that was ahead but not IMHO by a massive amount. I love the car but I'm not a fan boy who doesn't see the faults with car, service and company and not criticise accordingly,
My brother has a Range Rover which is no stranger to the dealerships around him, and his TVR sits mainly in his garage gathering dust...
DonkeyApple said:
Burwood said:
From Whatcar Reliability Survey, released yesterday. Tesla now worse than Landrover. The good news is it doesn't seem to impact LR. The big negative is all the warranty work which is very expensive.
What is of mild interest is that you can draw some very clear correlations between how Tesla is run, how their product is built and it’s quality with Peter Wheeler’s TVR. The product quality is abysmal, almost 70s level of inconsistency. Only a true brand fan can turn a blind eye to paying that much money for such a poor product. And that issue means product keeps coming back to service centres for repairs that should never have been needed and each event eats into that original sales margin.
Without Musk’s persona and gravitas this is not a product that any Western premium consumer would ever have tolerated.
Given my love of TVRs and Range Rovers, I really own got to want a Tesla.
Tesla aren’t British.
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