Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
REALIST123 said:
Witchfinder said:
skwdenyer said:
The S is S-class in size and price so that rather defines the comparators.
Surely not? The S-Class is between 50 and 250mm longer, depending on wheelbase. The Audi A7 is almost exactly the same length as the Model-S, and is closer in that they are both 5-door hatchbacks.There’s no “right” answer but what is certainly true is that the Model S is soaking up a lot of purchases at that particular price level.
Depends on the country too
A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
JPJPJP said:
Depends on the country too
A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
£89K for a Velar A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
JPJPJP said:
Depends on the country too
A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
And that’s the big unknown that is causing so much speculation, the fact that EV sales dominate in countries that have both large per capita wealth and large tax incentives. A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
The data from Norway can be argued either way. That EVs are in demand because people have wealth or because the tax system makes them a better choice.
It’s still very muddy.
DonkeyApple said:
JPJPJP said:
Depends on the country too
A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
And that’s the big unknown that is causing so much speculation, the fact that EV sales dominate in countries that have both large per capita wealth and large tax incentives. A comparable ice car in purchase price terms in Norway would be something much smaller than an s class
An e200 4matic auto costs more than an s75 on this list from the tax office
https://www.skatteetaten.no/globalassets/skjema/20...
The data from Norway can be argued either way. That EVs are in demand because people have wealth or because the tax system makes them a better choice.
It’s still very muddy.
But otherwise agreed there are effects that are perhaps hard to model.
This is what tax incentives can do, and cause when they go
Hong kong, just about stopped after they went albeit with a big swan song
And in Denmark
Now in both cases the incentives were pretty large so it’s going to be interesting what happens in the US with a modest reduction. There’s also the psychology of the buyer - 3k off the car from the gov feels great, 3k off the car from Tesla doesn’t., even though what you pay is the same
Hong kong, just about stopped after they went albeit with a big swan song
And in Denmark
Now in both cases the incentives were pretty large so it’s going to be interesting what happens in the US with a modest reduction. There’s also the psychology of the buyer - 3k off the car from the gov feels great, 3k off the car from Tesla doesn’t., even though what you pay is the same
RobDickinson said:
Heres Johnny said:
So here’s the question on US M3 numbers which outsold BMW 3 series etc. This year we’ll have the new 3 series, reduced M3 tax incentives etc,.. so what the number going to be. I can’t see the M3 staying ahead at all. That’s not a critism of Tesla, make hay when you can, it’s the views of some that one good quarter means BMW etc are dead, the whole world has changed etc.
Heres Johnny said:
So here’s the question on US M3 numbers which outsold BMW 3 series etc. This year we’ll have the new 3 series, reduced M3 tax incentives etc,.. so what the number going to be. I can’t see the M3 staying ahead at all. That’s not a critism of Tesla, make hay when you can, it’s the views of some that one good quarter means BMW etc are dead, the whole world has changed etc.
I think thats going to be the real interesting battle in US and Europe this year. The best of the old school ICE against the newcomer.
Last year it was 45k vs 140k, but that was the old 3 series and a Tesla 100% focused on selling 3's in USA with the full tax credit
Whoah that first graph was wrong... looks like 2014/15 BMW sold 140k or so of 3/4's so similar number to 2018 model 3s
Edited by RobDickinson on Sunday 27th January 08:04
Heres Johnny said:
So here’s the question on US M3 numbers which outsold BMW 3 series etc. This year we’ll have the new 3 series, reduced M3 tax incentives etc,.. so what the number going to be. I can’t see the M3 staying ahead at all. That’s not a critism of Tesla, make hay when you can, it’s the views of some that one good quarter means BMW etc are dead, the whole world has changed etc.
The world is constantly changing, history is full of companies that failed to change in time.BMW is actually pretty well positioned, they have the tech and plenty of customer loyalty, all that's needed is some bravery at the top to commit. Its the lower cost manfactues actually are much more exposed.
Toyota will be in a world of pain of Camry and Corrolla sales continue to fall this year in the US. Toyota's refusal to develop EVs really is mind boggling, yes some people really do need combustion cars but those people are few.
Lexus is a big if not bigger than BMW/Merc in the US, I just cannot see how they are going to compete as everyone else is slowly but surely bringing out EVs.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 27th January 08:28
gangzoom said:
Toyota will be in a world of pain of Camry and Corrolla sales continue to fall this year in the US. Toyota's refusal to develop EVs really is mind boggling, yes some people really do need combustion cars but those people are few.
American's are buying trucks and SUVs... passenger car's are a dying market.What's really amazing from the Nokia story is how no one predicted the massive change in consumer behaviour. Even in 2007 the year the iPhone was launched Nokia had their best year ever, no amount of analysis would have predicated how the company was already doomed, why would you doubt a company that madr one in four phones sold that year??
Cars have much longer gestation than phones, but all the signs are consumers want EVs, and demand is far out stripping supply, waiting list on the Kona is up to 10 months now I belive - Who would have predicated such demand for a £30k smalll Hyundai with about as much styling as a box.
The next few years will see big changes in the auto industry. But governments like to save car companies, Ford, GM, Fiat, Renualt all should be dead by now, its only the UK government who seem to be willing to let their national car manfactues die.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/27/noki...
Cars have much longer gestation than phones, but all the signs are consumers want EVs, and demand is far out stripping supply, waiting list on the Kona is up to 10 months now I belive - Who would have predicated such demand for a £30k smalll Hyundai with about as much styling as a box.
The next few years will see big changes in the auto industry. But governments like to save car companies, Ford, GM, Fiat, Renualt all should be dead by now, its only the UK government who seem to be willing to let their national car manfactues die.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/27/noki...
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 27th January 08:48
DonkeyApple said:
And that’s the big unknown that is causing so much speculation, the fact that EV sales dominate in countries that have both large per capita wealth and large tax incentives.
The data from Norway can be argued either way. That EVs are in demand because people have wealth or because the tax system makes them a better choice.
It’s still very muddy.
The Norwegians in particular are being heavily inventivised away from buying ICE Cars.The data from Norway can be argued either way. That EVs are in demand because people have wealth or because the tax system makes them a better choice.
It’s still very muddy.
Where Norway leads, the world follows. Not.
California is one of only 4 states in America where you can lease purchase an EV.
gangzoom said:
What's really amazing from the Nokia story is how no one predicted the massive change in consumer behaviour. Even in 2007 the year the iPhone was launched Nokia had their best year ever, no amount of analysis would have predicated how the company was already doomed, why would you doubt a company that madr one in four phones sold that year??
Cars have much longer gestation than phones, but all the signs are consumers want EVs, and demand is far out stripping supply, waiting list on the Kona is up to 10 months now I belive - Who would have predicated such demand for a £30k smalll Hyundai with about as much styling as a box.
The next few years will see big changes in the auto industry. But governments like to save car companies, Ford, GM, Fiat, Renualt all should be dead by now, its only the UK government who seem to be willing to let their national car manfactues die.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/27/noki...
Cars are much more expensive than phones. Most buy what they can afford and that isn’t an EV just yet. Cars have much longer gestation than phones, but all the signs are consumers want EVs, and demand is far out stripping supply, waiting list on the Kona is up to 10 months now I belive - Who would have predicated such demand for a £30k smalll Hyundai with about as much styling as a box.
The next few years will see big changes in the auto industry. But governments like to save car companies, Ford, GM, Fiat, Renualt all should be dead by now, its only the UK government who seem to be willing to let their national car manfactues die.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/27/noki...
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 27th January 08:48
Nothing like phones. If you could afford a Nokia, you could afford an iPhone. Simply a matter of choice.
REALIST123 said:
gangzoom said:
What's really amazing from the Nokia story is how no one predicted the massive change in consumer behaviour. Even in 2007 the year the iPhone was launched Nokia had their best year ever, no amount of analysis would have predicated how the company was already doomed, why would you doubt a company that madr one in four phones sold that year??
Cars have much longer gestation than phones, but all the signs are consumers want EVs, and demand is far out stripping supply, waiting list on the Kona is up to 10 months now I belive - Who would have predicated such demand for a £30k smalll Hyundai with about as much styling as a box.
The next few years will see big changes in the auto industry. But governments like to save car companies, Ford, GM, Fiat, Renualt all should be dead by now, its only the UK government who seem to be willing to let their national car manfactues die.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/27/noki...
Cars are much more expensive than phones. Most buy what they can afford and that isn’t an EV just yet. Cars have much longer gestation than phones, but all the signs are consumers want EVs, and demand is far out stripping supply, waiting list on the Kona is up to 10 months now I belive - Who would have predicated such demand for a £30k smalll Hyundai with about as much styling as a box.
The next few years will see big changes in the auto industry. But governments like to save car companies, Ford, GM, Fiat, Renualt all should be dead by now, its only the UK government who seem to be willing to let their national car manfactues die.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/27/noki...
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 27th January 08:48
Nothing like phones. If you could afford a Nokia, you could afford an iPhone. Simply a matter of choice.
But they're not sitting on their hands, people often forget that BMW have had a full EV for quote a few years, Merc owned a slug of Tesla at one point, they#ve let Tesla shift market perception while letting the price points on battery tech move more cost favourably and they're now stepping in to join the party. Listening to some commentators you'd think the long time established car makers are all still in denial..
gangzoom said:
I see not having to swap cars every 2/3 years as one of the best things about owning something like a Tesla. Our car does 100% of what we need it to do (expect for a handful of work trips in the year), and its been used/driven for non work miles far more than any other car I have owned.
I always find this viewpoint strange.Of the issues you've had with cars, how many have been for engines vs the rest? I used to run new cars (co. car), now they're 12 and 14 years old. In all cases (new and old), problems tend to be suspension / brakes and not engines. IMO the drive to change company cars every 2-3 years is a combo of the tax scheme (you pay the same as an employee for brand new of 10 years old, it's just the P11D value based on new price) plus lease companies liking _not_ having to worry about warranty costs because that risk is shouldered by the manufacturer.
So if it's private, not a company car - surely ease of repair / parts availability would be key in keeping it vaiable? This is working _against_ Tesla not for it - you need their software island to do most things (that you can't get) and they won't sell parts. As a car gets older and less valuable, the appetite for main dealer decreases, especially branded OEM parts - that 100% premium for an Audi box vs a Brembo box really does hold less attraction once your (once 60k) car is worth 15 grand...
gangzoom said:
The world is constantly changing, history is full of companies that failed to change in time.
BMW is actually pretty well positioned, they have the tech and plenty of customer loyalty, all that's needed is some bravery at the top to commit. Its the lower cost manfactues actually are much more exposed.
Toyota will be in a world of pain of Camry and Corrolla sales continue to fall this year in the US. Toyota's refusal to develop EVs really is mind boggling, yes some people really do need combustion cars but those people are few.
Lexus is a big if not bigger than BMW/Merc in the US, I just cannot see how they are going to compete as everyone else is slowly but surely bringing out EVs.
There still isn’t any business case for building an expensive EV to sell to poor people who can’t afford it. It’s not that Toyota are morons or negligent or lagging it is that they know that as of yet the costs of EV manufacture do not yet favour their brand position in the market place. The Korean firms are the first to test the water in this regard by offering an extremely expensive EV under a low cost brand and we will all see the data over the coming years. BMW is actually pretty well positioned, they have the tech and plenty of customer loyalty, all that's needed is some bravery at the top to commit. Its the lower cost manfactues actually are much more exposed.
Toyota will be in a world of pain of Camry and Corrolla sales continue to fall this year in the US. Toyota's refusal to develop EVs really is mind boggling, yes some people really do need combustion cars but those people are few.
Lexus is a big if not bigger than BMW/Merc in the US, I just cannot see how they are going to compete as everyone else is slowly but surely bringing out EVs.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 27th January 08:28
The prestige brands are moving forward as there is a market there but that market is not exactly a big one and there are huge economic uncertainties in the short term with regards to global govt tax incentives and things like the stalling Chinese economy. They have to be cautious while a company like Tesla is at precisely the other end of the market and must not be cautious.
There is also the issue of battery supply anyway. There are not enough being produced as of yet to enable the global manufacturers to turn on the production taps and bring their economies of scale to bear so it’s all moot at present anyway.
The reality is that there just aren’t the barriers to entry to EV production that there have tended to be with ICE. And so firms can afford to wait until they can build an EV that their brand consumers can afford and wish to buy rather than throwing money away for a few years trying to flog products that they know their target brand consumer cannot afford or does not want.
Arguably VW’s delivery of ‘peoples’ EVs is going to be the truly big EV event so far. And it may well just show that the whole Tesla thing has been a bit of a flash in the pan and that what future EV buyers want is a product that does almost everything they need a car to do, can save them money and can be rented with the lowest monthly amount for the brand status/position. Or it may highlight that future EV owners in fact just want a product with Tesla on the back as it is the brand that they are keen to be associated with and not the concept of EV.
What Tesla has massively achieved and that is of huge, huge value and why the brand is here to stay unless Musk does something horrific to repulse consumers which doesn’t seem likely, is that they have captured to brand loyalty of the Millenial and younger market ahead of the evil scum incumbents who sit in their stuffy boardrooms punching kittens and laughing maniacally. But that’s a benefit that will take years to deliver reward.
This little side article makes a couple of interesting observations:
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-influencing-...
Agreed. There is simply not the battery capacity to cover the volume of ICE cars. The reason, too expensive just now. Toyota are doing something. They are in bed with Panasonic.
BMW will have what on paper looks like a winner for 2021 in the i4. The battery scaling is similar to Nand Flash(SSDs). Started at very high prices. Now peanuts. Im not saying batteries will be peanuts by 15-20% cost reduction per annum is going to see sub USD20k cars within a few years. I am sure Tesla were laughed at originally and yes it's a case of play catch up. But catch up they will. The winner in all of this will be the consumer.
If you read, even today, some of the sites that evangelise Tesla, they are deluded in the extreme. Claiming Tesla are not a car company but an energy company and apparently only they know how to assemble the battery packs with robots which are so fast you need a strobe light to see them move. What a load of b
ks. Cutting edge tech is available to any company with the money to buy it.
BMW will have what on paper looks like a winner for 2021 in the i4. The battery scaling is similar to Nand Flash(SSDs). Started at very high prices. Now peanuts. Im not saying batteries will be peanuts by 15-20% cost reduction per annum is going to see sub USD20k cars within a few years. I am sure Tesla were laughed at originally and yes it's a case of play catch up. But catch up they will. The winner in all of this will be the consumer.
If you read, even today, some of the sites that evangelise Tesla, they are deluded in the extreme. Claiming Tesla are not a car company but an energy company and apparently only they know how to assemble the battery packs with robots which are so fast you need a strobe light to see them move. What a load of b
ks. Cutting edge tech is available to any company with the money to buy it.gangzoom said:
The world is constantly changing, history is full of companies that failed to change in time.
BMW is actually pretty well positioned, they have the tech and plenty of customer loyalty, all that's needed is some bravery at the top to commit. Its the lower cost manfactues actually are much more exposed.
Toyota will be in a world of pain of Camry and Corrolla sales continue to fall this year in the US. Toyota's refusal to develop EVs really is mind boggling, yes some people really do need combustion cars but those people are few.
Lexus is a big if not bigger than BMW/Merc in the US, I just cannot see how they are going to compete as everyone else is slowly but surely bringing out EVs.
Hybrids are the most likely vehicles to be practical for the USA market, which is where Toyota/Lexus are placing their bet.BMW is actually pretty well positioned, they have the tech and plenty of customer loyalty, all that's needed is some bravery at the top to commit. Its the lower cost manfactues actually are much more exposed.
Toyota will be in a world of pain of Camry and Corrolla sales continue to fall this year in the US. Toyota's refusal to develop EVs really is mind boggling, yes some people really do need combustion cars but those people are few.
Lexus is a big if not bigger than BMW/Merc in the US, I just cannot see how they are going to compete as everyone else is slowly but surely bringing out EVs.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 27th January 08:28
gangzoom said:
I see not having to swap cars every 2/3 years as one of the best things about owning something like a Tesla. Our car does 100% of what we need it to do (expect for a handful of work trips in the year), and its been used/driven for non work miles far more than any other car I have owned.
Because the UK is overrun with Tesla Service Centres for when stuff starts going wrong on a regular basis.Edited by gangzoom on Friday 25th January 11:07
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