Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
There is also the issue of battery supply anyway. There are not enough being produced as of yet to enable the global manufacturers to turn on the production taps and bring their economies of scale to bear so it’s all moot at present anyway.
I think that's the big risk for anyone who isn't already serious focussing on EVs - battery production capacity is obviously increasing at a huge rate but the new capacity for some time to come appears to already be accounted for under contracts which are being signed now. Surely any company which isn't already signing supply contracts has got to run the risk of simply not being able to get hold of batteries as and when EVs do become genuinely mainstream? Personally I don't see Tesla being the major risk to the established market players. I think the major threat comes from the east - with Hyundai/Kia pushing themselves upmarket and pursuing enormously ambitious EV roll-out plans and the Chinese car manufacturers continuing to catch up the Western manufacturers in terms of quality whilst their domestic market is pushing towards EVs to improve their dire city air quality. I don't think they're going to challenge the badge power of the big German companies but I could see companies like PSA, Ford of Europe and Opel getting into in serious trouble.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 27th January 14:37
kambites said:
I think the major threat comes from the east - with Hyundai/Kia pushing themselves upmarket and pursuing enormously ambitious EV roll-out plans and the Chinese car manufacturers continuing to catch up the Western manufacturers in terms of quality whilst their domestic market is pushing towards EVs to improve their dire city air quality.
South Korea's push to EV adoption is driven by air quality too. Although it's not as bad as their Chinese neighbours, it is many times worse than what we have in Western Europe.I still think that targeting taxi, van and bus transport for electrification should be much higher on the agenda than private cars if you want to drive up air quality in UK cities. I'm still a little surprised Tesla haven't got a van in their roadmap of vehicles to come.
http://aqicn.org/map/europe/#@g/46.8306/1.7139/4z
I realise this live data can be weather dependant and air quality in the UK is typically much worse on hot summers days but it give you a good idea of the current state of things.
Edited by Smiljan on Sunday 27th January 14:54
They already are, something over 20 million cars sold by Hyundai last year alone.
Things are cooling off in China for them though with sales down and news of cuts at their 4 Chinese car factories. I think all the talk of Tesla surviving or not is great but it’s virtually impossible to say what’ll happen to any car manufacturer in the future.
Might explain why the big European manufacturers have been cautious not to enter the EV market too soon.
Things are cooling off in China for them though with sales down and news of cuts at their 4 Chinese car factories. I think all the talk of Tesla surviving or not is great but it’s virtually impossible to say what’ll happen to any car manufacturer in the future.
Might explain why the big European manufacturers have been cautious not to enter the EV market too soon.
kambites said:
DonkeyApple said:
There is also the issue of battery supply anyway. There are not enough being produced as of yet to enable the global manufacturers to turn on the production taps and bring their economies of scale to bear so it’s all moot at present anyway.
I think that's the big risk for anyone who isn't already serious focussing on EVs - battery production capacity is obviously increasing at a huge rate but the new capacity for some time to come appears to already be accounted for under contracts which are being signed now. Surely any company which isn't already signing supply contracts has got to run the risk of simply not being able to get hold of batteries as and when EVs do become genuinely mainstream? Personally I don't see Tesla being the major risk to the established market players. I think the major threat comes from the east - with Hyundai/Kia pushing themselves upmarket and pursuing enormously ambitious EV roll-out plans and the Chinese car manufacturers continuing to catch up the Western manufacturers in terms of quality whilst their domestic market is pushing towards EVs to improve their dire city air quality. I don't think they're going to challenge the badge power of the big German companies but I could see companies like PSA, Ford of Europe and Opel getting into in serious trouble.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 27th January 14:37
Burwood said:
The Koreans will struggle to threaten VAG/BMW/Merc. I'm a self confessed and unapologetic badge snob but i'll qualify that in saying, they are just better, the Germans ). I'd buy Lexus i suppose, well I admire the big saloons. In 10-20 years maybe Asia will produce cars on par. When I was a teen I had a Corolla GT which was the cats whiskers in its day. 1987
Hmm, I'm the opposite. I've never owned an eastern car but from recent second-hand experience (my parents and brother both have Kias) I'd say they are generally better built and engineered than the German cars I've owned and experienced. The thing they tend to lack is the thin vaneer of "luxury" the Germans are so good at.I think the Koreans are already starting to challenge VAG in the form of Skoda and Seat and to a lesser extent VW themselves. I agree they're going to struggle to go up against BMW, Mercedes or Audi in the UK and possibly in the rest of western Europe but Western Europe is a relatively small part of the global car market these days. I think they're putting serious pressure on Honda and Toyota too.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 27th January 17:00
I did have a very quick look but couldn't actually see figures for 2017 on my rather crappy little phone.
Rather easier on a computer. It looks like they're the third biggest manufacturer on about 8m which is still far bigger than I'd realised! I thought they were half that, behind Ford, GM, etc. In that case I'll refise my finger in the air prediction to say they'll be the biggest car manufacturer in the world in ten years' time (unless someone like Geely comes out of the blue).
Rather easier on a computer. It looks like they're the third biggest manufacturer on about 8m which is still far bigger than I'd realised! I thought they were half that, behind Ford, GM, etc. In that case I'll refise my finger in the air prediction to say they'll be the biggest car manufacturer in the world in ten years' time (unless someone like Geely comes out of the blue).
REALIST123 said:
Cars are much more expensive than phones. Most buy what they can afford and that isn’t an EV just yet.
Nothing like phones. If you could afford a Nokia, you could afford an iPhone. Simply a matter of choice.
Just yet.. Production price parity in 2 years and ev are a lot cheaper to run. Nothing like phones. If you could afford a Nokia, you could afford an iPhone. Simply a matter of choice.
kambites said:
I think that's the big risk for anyone who isn't already serious focussing on EVs - battery production capacity is obviously increasing at a huge rate but the new capacity for some time to come appears to already be accounted for under contracts which are being signed now. Surely any company which isn't already signing supply contracts has got to run the risk of simply not being able to get hold of batteries as and when EVs do become genuinely mainstream?
Personally I don't see Tesla being the major risk to the established market players. I think the major threat comes from the east - with Hyundai/Kia pushing themselves upmarket and pursuing enormously ambitious EV roll-out plans and the Chinese car manufacturers continuing to catch up the Western manufacturers in terms of quality whilst their domestic market is pushing towards EVs to improve their dire city air quality. I don't think they're going to challenge the badge power of the big German companies but I could see companies like PSA, Ford of Europe and Opel getting into in serious trouble.
I agree with that entirely. EVs are the big way that China will take massive market share in the West in the years to come and it will be at the cost of share to the incumbent Weatern brands that operate at the bottom. Personally I don't see Tesla being the major risk to the established market players. I think the major threat comes from the east - with Hyundai/Kia pushing themselves upmarket and pursuing enormously ambitious EV roll-out plans and the Chinese car manufacturers continuing to catch up the Western manufacturers in terms of quality whilst their domestic market is pushing towards EVs to improve their dire city air quality. I don't think they're going to challenge the badge power of the big German companies but I could see companies like PSA, Ford of Europe and Opel getting into in serious trouble.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 27th January 14:37
kambites said:
I did have a very quick look but couldn't actually see figures for 2017 on my rather crappy little phone.
Rather easier on a computer. It looks like they're the third biggest manufacturer on about 8m which is still far bigger than I'd realised! I thought they were half that, behind Ford, GM, etc. In that case I'll refise my finger in the air prediction to say they'll be the biggest car manufacturer in the world in ten years' time (unless someone like Geely comes out of the blue).
Rather easier on a computer. It looks like they're the third biggest manufacturer on about 8m which is still far bigger than I'd realised! I thought they were half that, behind Ford, GM, etc. In that case I'll refise my finger in the air prediction to say they'll be the biggest car manufacturer in the world in ten years' time (unless someone like Geely comes out of the blue).
Well at least you're more accurate than me. I was only 12 million out. Oops.Anyway, moving on.....
RobDickinson said:
REALIST123 said:
Cars are much more expensive than phones. Most buy what they can afford and that isn’t an EV just yet.
Nothing like phones. If you could afford a Nokia, you could afford an iPhone. Simply a matter of choice.
Just yet.. Production price parity in 2 years and ev are a lot cheaper to run. Nothing like phones. If you could afford a Nokia, you could afford an iPhone. Simply a matter of choice.
DonkeyApple said:
2 years is arguably very bullish. It’s going to happen but it’s going to be a while longer than 2 years before we see £12-15k new EVs which is where the bulk of the new car action is.
IIRC the mean average list price for new car sales in the UK is about £30k. I suppose the median will be rather lower than that but I don't think it's going to be <£20k. EVs have a way to go but once (if?) consumer confidence increases to match that of ICE powered vehicles, the lower running costs are bound to prop up used prices which will bring down total cost of ownership for new buyers considerably. How quickly consumer confidence will rise is anyone's guess; people don't trust change.
I doubt buying (leasing, whatever) a 60kwh Kona EV this year will cost any more over 3 years and 30k miles than a similarly specced petrol or diesel one.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 27th January 17:35
kambites said:
Smiljan said:
They already are, something over 20 million cars sold by Hyundai last year alone.
Really? I thought VAG and Toyota were the biggest companies, each selling around 10m? Edited by Burwood on Sunday 27th January 17:50
samsock said:
It is very crowded at the top. The largest 5 automakers have similar market share 6-8%, and no car company, least of all Tesla, is likely to disrupt this any time soon.
Correct. And therein reason is due to the sheer infrastructure required to do so. Tesla are niche and will remain so for a very long time.Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff