Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Heres Johnny]

gangzoom said:

'all existing Model S and Model X owners who wish to purchase a new Model S or Model X Performance car will get the Ludicrous Mode upgrade, a $20,000 value, at no additional charge.'

Oh dear, I have fears for our early mortgage repayment plan .

Its also funny that for the last 2 years, ludicrous has been included as part of the performance cars, they make it an option and then a few weeks later call it a free upgrade when they make it free again. Its amateurish marketing

But I suspect as they've just released a new drive train and faster charging with longer range, they need to get shot of the old inventory somehow.

[DonkeyApple]

sambucket said:

I'm amazed the share is green today. Warns investors not to expect any profit at all, until they crack L5 FSD. Share up 2$!!!

Back to being a tech company then.

Market is already pricing in negative results so it’s more a matter of how bad or good the loss is v consensus. TSLA stock often goes relatively quiet in the final couple of days to data and forward guidance anyway.

I think the general stock view is that if it holds above 250 tomorrow then it will remain in its current trading range for quite some time to come.

Forward guidance is the main thing here. They have the 10k late deliveries of Q1 to bolster q2 and by now their exporting system should be efficient so we should here about delivery numbers much higher than q1. And there will probably be clarity on the Emissions credit pooling deal and how that will be booked to account and guidance on its worth.

Plus, the real reason for it not slipping yesterday is that Musk has delivered a new story for tomorrow’s jam.

[anonymous-user]

DonkeyApple said:

Plus, the real reason for it not slipping yesterday is that Musk has delivered a new story for tomorrow’s jam.

But yesterday's "new story" included new guidance that we should not expect profit in Q2, or any quarter for foreseeable. (though I may have misunderstood what he meant by 'cash flow neutral' - maybe that's just for lease?) Which is new info potentially not yet priced in. So I would have thought the stock would drop on that news.

Also with the SX refresh timed for today.... there is a lot of distraction going on. I would be happy with 250.

[Heres Johnny]

sambucket said:

DonkeyApple said:

Plus, the real reason for it not slipping yesterday is that Musk has delivered a new story for tomorrow’s jam.

But yesterday's "new story" included new guidance that we should not expect profit in Q2, or any quarter for foreseeable. Which is new info potentially not yet priced in. So I would have thought the stock would drop on that news.

Also with the SX refresh timed for today.... there is a lot of distraction going on. I would be happy with 250.

If you look back at the trading over the last few days the share hit exactly 260 then bounced, that looks like a buy trigger point, if it breaks through that, or the 250 DA refers to, its going to drift lower. My hunch is it will, as good as the FSD talk was, we heard something similar 3 years and the market is increasingly going to want less talk and more action from Tesla as the talk is cheap

[DonkeyApple]

sambucket said:

But yesterday's "new story" included new guidance that we should not expect profit in Q2, or any quarter for foreseeable. (though I may have misunderstood what he meant by 'cash flow neutral' - maybe that's just for lease?) Which is new info potentially not yet priced in. So I would have thought the stock would drop on that news.

Also with the SX refresh timed for today.... there is a lot of distraction going on. I would be happy with 250.

Who in the market was expecting any profit this year? Guidance that there won’t be a catastrophic loss is hugely positive.

The big play this year is what sort of funding they are going to need to raise. If they can baton down the hatches and just have a flat year and push out more jam tomorrow then that’s going to be much better than having to go out and raise a few $B in Q3.

I don’t think anyone wants to see TSLA at 250 because the general consensus is that the downside momentum of it breaks and holds below that level is big. You can imagine therefor the number of sell orders that will probably hit the market as that’s a massive stop position plus the shorts that would enter.

I suspect that if it were to break below 250 then we would see 230.

The key tonight is to affirm that they don’t need to raise more money really.

[anonymous-user]

DonkeyApple said:

Who in the market was expecting any profit this year? Guidance that there won’t be a catastrophic loss is hugely positive.

Yahoo finance currently has FY 2019 consensus of 2.72 EPS.

[Tuna]

REALIST123 said:

But wouldn’t investors be interested in a plan to improve build quality by an order of magnitude, reduce cost and subsequently price, and significantly increase sales?

Why would Tesla commit to something that requires significant immediate change, over something that promises miracles at some undefined point in the future? This isn't about what investors (and certainly not customers) actually want, this is about Tesla keeping the money flowing. It seems all of the talk was about smart taxis, and suddenly the idea of cheap mass market private transport is being put on the back burner. Tesla are trying to shift the focus of investors, not pander to them.

At least, that's my impression.

[DonkeyApple]

sambucket said:

Yahoo finance have FY 2019 consensus of 2.72 EPS.

Back in Jan it was over 3 but more importantly every participant had a positive number and expected profit. That has obviously all changed but with TSLA you have analysts with wild numbers in the mix as they seek to use the publicity to get their name in the media and that makes things like published EPS much less relevant than it would be for other stocks.

The 2.7 is also historic and we know that it will change post Q1 data so the market isn’t really interested in what it was yesterday but where they see it being.

Also, don’t forget that we are expecting a loss in Q1 so that to be flat at the end of Q4 means they are still giving guidance of profitablity in all later quarters. That’s a very positive outlook.

If you imagine that they book a big loss in Q1 but each subsequent quarter shows a growing profit then even if the net final result is zero it bodes fantastically well for 2020 just as those rising numbers did in 2018.

Most analysts whose view comprise the consensus have been downgrading targets but the wider play is no longer about eeking out a profit in 2019 its about not having to tap the market for capital and confirming true market demand. People like myself hold the view that natural demand is much lower than the extreme bulls believe and that the business will restructure and settle into a modest position in the market place. Others believe that everyone wants an EV and will pay a premium in money and inconvenience to have one and that this will keep driving demand regardless of global economics or any conventional consumer theories.

Musk spent last year calling some of the brightest and best people on Wall Street dumb. The other day he decided to announce that all the very bright and brilliant people in Silicon Valley currently working on FSD are dumb. He is blaming Panasonic for customers not buying enough of his cars. He is attacking the SEC. He is threatening ex employees. Senior staff are leaving at an above average rate. Larry Ellison is saying nothing. He’s up to his eyeballs in debt. Anyone who were to look at this stock with a fresh and unbiased set of eyes would appreciate that it’s a real mess with much more downside to upside. A total gamble. And that wasn’t where we were meant to be in 2019.

As for tonight’s data, well trading volumes are modest and price is stable and that suggests that the Q1 loss will have to be much higher than expected to drive the price downwards. This is still a stock that wants to go up and if the numbers are inline and Q2 delivery guidance is back on track then I don’t think there will be any foreworks.

Edited by DonkeyApple on Wednesday 24th April 10:14

[Heres Johnny]

DonkeyApple said:

Musk spent last year calling some of the brightest and best people on Wall Street dumb. The other day he decided to announce that all the very bright and brilliant people in Silicon Valley currently working on FSD are dumb. He is blaming Panasonic for customers not buying enough of his cars. He is attacking the SEC. He is threatening ex employees. Senior staff are leaving at an above average rate. Larry Ellison is saying nothing. He’s up to his eyeballs in debt. Anyone who were to look at this stock with a fresh and unbiased set of eyes would appreciate that it’s a real mess with much more downside to upside. A total gamble. And that wasn’t where we were meant to be in 2019.

ah, but he has a vision of utopia where every $35k M3 will go out and earn its weight in gold while you're not using it.

[RobDickinson]

Tesla this year so far...

Model S/X

More range 370/325 miles

200/145kw charging

Air suspension


Supercharger v3 250kw

HW3/FSD

Gigafactory 3


Navigate on Ap

Advanced Summon

dog mode

fart app

atari games

romance mode

sentry mode

dashcam

App improvements - seat heating, service apts, media etc


Model 3

250kw charging

$35k version

track mode

European sales

Leasing

5% more power/faster acceleration

Longer range for LR RWD


Model Y reveal

[jjwilde]

I'm looking forward to the Semi now, especially because so many people think it's impossible.

Does anyone here still think they won't deliver on the semi after all this?

[DonkeyApple]

Heres Johnny said:

ah, but he has a vision of utopia where every $35k M3 will go out and earn its weight in gold while you're not using it.

If he can sell a $40k asset that yields $30k a year gross then we are all billionaires. This is the product that all people who don’t want to work have been been waiting for all their lives. The investment that defies all fiscal concepts since the dawn of commerce.

Obviously the real number to note is his 18c/mile cost projection. That’s exciting because if true then minicabs are going to cost barely 20c/mile and there will be absolutely no point in anyone owning a car any more.

I guess the risk is that all the other Silicon Valley ‘idiots’ haven’t got it wrong and that they will develop a FSD product that isn’t restricted to just a single car company’s product range but can be rolled out on every new car on the planet. Frankly, if Tesla do get an FSD product and the licences to use it without a pilot then selling it outside of their product range will be forced upon them buy the shareholders.

[gangzoom]

DonkeyApple said:

That’s exciting because if true then minicabs are going to cost barely 20c/mile and there will be absolutely no point in anyone owning a car any more.

Surely you must realise that IS the point of Elons gamble with FSD and Tesla.

My daughter thinks music and video just 'appears' on screens like magic, the concept of 'owning' digital media is now nearly redundant let alone physical media like a CD. The concept of 'ownership' is changing for the kids growing up.

For the vast majority of people the only point of owing a car is to get from A to B in a more comfortable/convenient way than using public transport.

Even though I like to 'own' our cars, but coming to think about it if we had a 'shared' family car with FSD to do local family errands so sent around town by it self it would work fine.

However if than needed to get my parents from London Leicester that would be a pain, because we have to send the car on a 4hr round trip. But if we could 'rent' an identical car for them for that trip at a cost of 10-15p/mile than why would we 'send' our own car at a cost of 6-8p/mile, even though rental is twice as much the absolute value is tiny - especially if you factor in capital investment needed for owing our car. Take it one step further if there was a fleet of identical cars locally which we could just summon and use when ever, why would we even bother 'owning' our own car??

The key to all this cost, for any of it to work the cost per mile of the rental has to be in a similar ball park to what our current EV costs to run - 10p/mile once you factor in fuel/tyres/insurance.

With any human cost factored in thats not going to happen, average speed around town in 20mph at the most, so even if you double that 10p to 20p per mile, a human driver would get less than £4/hr which clearly never going to happen.

Hence the whole of Tesla's existence really now does 100% depend on been able to deliver FSD, even on a $35k Model 3. As the price of the cars will become irrelevant if Tesla in effect becomes a personal transportation company.

No other car manufacture will be able to compete, or get close to the $/mile Tesla can offer personal transportation at. The number of cars Tesla sell/produce at this point becomes irrelevant, as income will be generated by passenger miles delivered. Hence from this point onwards Musk can justify ignoring all data points on production/sales volumes.

BUT Google still haven't cracked FSD, even with almost unlimited access to computing hardware and software talent.

FSD is the biggest gamble/risk in Tesla history. I would say the chances of Musk pulling it off is less than 10%.

Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 24th April 12:20

[DonkeyApple]

I fully understand. I have the Uber prospectus. I also fully understand why you won’t be grossing a $30k income and why restricting your tech to just a small subject of available cars is not smart.

The whole FSD parade was just an attempt to reinvigorate the jam tomorrow policy that maintains the massive share premium. There wasn’t anything new in the business case outline.

[gangzoom]

If you really like conspiracy theories than you could say Space X was setup to purely enable Musk to fool share holders.

Selling an utopian view of personal transportation to a cynical group of investors I would say would is normally impossible. Infact if you went on Dragons Den with the same pitch the camera crew would be laughing so hard they wouldn't be able to film anything...

But when the same person has delivered Thunderbird 1 in real life x2, that bit of 'what if' creeps in.....

[DonkeyApple]

The real difference between the two enterprises is simply Gwynne Shotwell. Tesla should stick an intelligent woman in at Tesla and just get the business run professionally and selling cars for a profit. SpaceX is proof of what can be achieved with a great idea and great ambition when a professional person is left to make it happen.

[gangzoom]

DonkeyApple said:

Tesla should stick an intelligent woman in at Tesla and just get the business run professionally and selling cars for a profit.

That ship has sailed, Tesla will now be judged purely on their ability to deliver something no one else has done even as a tech demo let alone mass produce.

If you want Tesla to fail, Elon has handed you the perfect hand. Go all in and just wait for your reward....but the picture of those Thunderbirds is what should keep you awake at night.

Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 24th April 13:05

[anonymous-user]

On balance I think Musk is a great CEO, a great salesperson too. He obviously has a lot of weaknesses and faults. But I don't think tesla would be at current revenue today without him.

[DonkeyApple]

gangzoom said:

That ship has sailed, Tesla will now be judged purely on their ability to deliver something no one else has done even as a tech demo let alone mass produce.

If you want Tesla to fail, Elon has handed you the perfect hand. Go all in and just wait for your reward....but the picture of those Thunderbirds is what should keep you awake at night.

Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 24th April 13:05

It’s a far too simplistic retail punter, footballist mindset to conflate thinking something will fail with wanting it to fail. And frankly, it is of course offensive because of the thousands of jobs involved. And there is only one person playing fast and lose with thousands of livelihoods for their only personal gratification and he is enabled by his acolytes. Believing a firm in its current structure will not survive is not remotely the same or even linked to actually wanting a business to fail.

[DragonflyTrumpeter]

RobDickinson said:

Tesla this year so far...

Model S/X

More range 370/325 miles

200/145kw charging

Air suspension


Supercharger v3 250kw

HW3/FSD

Gigafactory 3


Navigate on Ap

Advanced Summon

dog mode

fart app

atari games

romance mode

sentry mode

dashcam

App improvements - seat heating, service apts, media etc


Model 3

250kw charging

$35k version

track mode

European sales

Leasing

5% more power/faster acceleration

Longer range for LR RWD


Model Y reveal

Can I ask what the point is of that long winded crap or is it just to fit in with your previous 25k posts re the info that is all over here? I was particularly impressed with the dash cam you mentioned, ground-breaking stuff and maybe worthy of a thread on it's own.

How is your Mitsubishi ICE doing btw, still going strong?