Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Burwood]

RobDickinson said:

T-195 said:

Let's see how well Tesla are doing when people that know how to build a car enter the market.

what like jaguar and audi?

VAG, Mercedes, BMW.

Do you see anything to celebrate in that result, Rob? I’m not being a smart ass btw. It’s a pretty dire position. Demand has stalled. Forget inability to deliver.

[anonymous-user]

I didn't see any specific mention of the treatment of the money from the emissions deal with Fiat - did I miss it, or is it of no importance?

[Witchfinder]

Let's give credit where it's due. The Germans' range, performance, and self-driving technology are a generation behind Tesla at the moment.

[RobDickinson]

JPJPJP said:

I didn't see any specific mention of the treatment of the money from the emissions deal with Fiat - did I miss it, or is it of no importance?

Its secret, as per agreement with fiat so we wont find out about it.

Burwood said:

VAG, Mercedes, BMW.

Do you see anything to celebrate in that result, Rob? I’m not being a smart ass btw. It’s a pretty dire position. Demand has stalled. Forget inability to deliver.

VAG cant get batteries for their flagship Audi suv, they are on a 6 hr day producing

EQC could be interesting when it launches, we'll have to see.

BMW? the ix3? thats going to be pretty average at best

[Burwood]

Witchfinder said:

Let's give credit where it's due. The Germans' range, performance, and self-driving technology are a generation behind Tesla at the moment.

Even if true, I’m not sure what your point is. My point is; Tesla has entire market but making losses. Next year they face fierce competition. No impact? Please

[RobDickinson]

Losses mostly down to not selling 10,000 model 3's they've already build and lower S/X sales which they have addressed somewhat.

They've $6bn in model 3's they just couldnt deliver in time.

[Burwood]

JPJPJP said:

I didn't see any specific mention of the treatment of the money from the emissions deal with Fiat - did I miss it, or is it of no importance?

I havnt looked at the annual report but it must be added to revenue, perhaps under the Energy division. Everywhere it is sited they call it Revenue. It started flowing in FY18 so assume it’s 200m plus per annum run rate. Although the credits had value before being sold so the historical treatment could very well be an accrual in 2018 to some intangible/ revenue and it’s a balance sheet move on receipt of cash.

[DonkeyApple]

It’s the same old issue. When they were selling the S and the X they were selling to people who had money. With the 3 they have crossed the Rubicon into the consumer world where the people who want the product don’t have the money.

The solar roof stuff, all that holistic waffle has been replaced with the new waffle about car prostitution and being the best chip maker in the world. Another year of jam tomorrow.

But he’s now talking about raising capital finally and although that’ll be a drag on the share price it’s what a lot of people needed to hear to be reassured that he wasn’t completely insane.

[RobDickinson]

Burwood said:

JPJPJP said:

I didn't see any specific mention of the treatment of the money from the emissions deal with Fiat - did I miss it, or is it of no importance?

I havnt looked at the annual report but it must be added to revenue, perhaps under the Energy division. Everywhere it is sited they call it Revenue. It started flowing in FY18 so assume it’s 200m plus per annum run rate. Although the credits had value before being sold so the historical treatment could very well be an accrual in 2018 to some intangible/ revenue and it’s a balance sheet move on receipt of cash.

Fiat deal was only signed in Feb afik, this isnt ZEV credits and I dont think any payment has yet been made

[PMacanGTS]

Witchfinder said:

Let's give credit where it's due. The Germans' range, performance, and self-driving technology are a generation behind Tesla at the moment.

I'm not so sure. On the software side, they've certainly got a head start in terms of million of miles of real world data to improve AI. However, Porsche have been developing their ev technology for a long time, and have invested billions of Euros. When they launch the Taycan later this year I expect that to be an instant Model S killer.

[RobDickinson]

PMacanGTS said:

Witchfinder said:

Let's give credit where it's due. The Germans' range, performance, and self-driving technology are a generation behind Tesla at the moment.

I'm not so sure. On the software side, they've certainly got a head start in terms of million of miles of real world data to improve AI. However, Porsche have been developing their ev technology for a long time, and have invested billions of Euros. When they launch the Taycan later this year I expect that to be an instant Model S killer.

They Taycan is rated at 311 miles NEDC which will work out to 250miles or less EPA, less than the 2012 model s.

[gangzoom]

Why are people even bothering with looking at production/sales, with FSD in a $35k product, Tesla will take over personal transportation. Undercut all Taxi services, public transport, and current car ownership models.....

If Tesla gets FSD sorted VAG/BMW etc will simplify by priced out of the market. You have to really love your BMW to keep paying 50p+/mile when you factor in all costs, versus 10-20p/mile for a car that you don't even need to bother driving let alone own.

The real question now is if Tesla can deliver FSD or not. The regulatory stuff is hot air, and if Tesla can demo their tech is good enough that will be enough keep all the investors happy, as the ultimate goal is literally world changing.

Even Google hasn't been so bold with their FSD promises, and Uber so untrusting of their own tech they turn off half the safety kit off in their test mules. Traditional car manufactures are no where near, and most relying on third party support for any kind of autonomy.

FSD is a bigger disruptor to the auto industry than EVs, it just happens you need EVs to make the numbers work. Musk may be just making all this up and the best con man the stock market has ever seen, but there is just a tiny chance he might be able to deliver.

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 25th April 09:32

[RobDickinson]

Elon has pretty much bet the company on that, designing and building your own chip has cost them $1bn plus I suspect with the rest, 150 AI hires this year etc It looks like it is going OK so far but its still a gamble

[PMacanGTS]

RobDickinson said:

They Taycan is rated at 311 miles NEDC which will work out to 250miles or less EPA, less than the 2012 model s.

No one really cares about range when you get over 250 miles. No one drives further than that without needing to take a piss.

[EddieSteadyGo]

PMacanGTS said:

When they launch the Taycan later this year I expect that to be an instant Model S killer.

Taycan will be successful, if for no other reason than the badge. But it won't kill Model S or Tesla.

The reason is due to how much risk they are prepared to take with their engineering design decisions. Musk is prepared to push far closer to the edge of the envelope than most traditional auto companies.

Legacy automakers are quite rightly concerned about reputation risk, cost of warranty issues, and future legal liabilities if they get it wrong. So they take more cautious decisions (or they restrict the volume of the product to minimise the risk in that way).

We can see this in the recent EV efforts from Mercedes and Audi. Lots of money spent, but the product specs don't match Tesla.

Musk, on the other hand, is prepared to take pretty much any risk and deal with the consequences later if it goes wrong. So he is prepared to use more exotic methods of magnet construction for his motors. Or he is prepared to allow a far higher portion of the battery capacity to be used than might be prudent for those doing a lot of rapid charging. He is prepared to call the Tesla driver assistance features "auto-pilot", when anyone objective knows that is overselling its capabilities. And he sold a "Full Self Driving" capability on his cars for several years, knowing full well he doesn't know if it will ever be possible.

The problem is, if these risks go bad, Tesla are going to need a lot of money to put them right. But most customers won't be thinking about these issues. Hence why I suspect their products will continue to look very competitive at the headline levels.

[gangzoom]

RobDickinson said:

Elon has pretty much bet the company on that, designing and building your own chip has cost them $1bn plus I suspect with the rest, 150 AI hires this year etc It looks like it is going OK so far but its still a gamble

Hardware and HR hires is not a guarantee of success.

IBM, Mayo Clinic, Google have spent billions $$$ in trying to 'train' DeepBlue to 'predict' medical care better than doctors. Afterall if you can run a hospital without doctors your profit margins will shoot so high up your drown in money.

But so far all they have achieved is wasted ALOT of $$$, whilst the Mayo Clinic still has to employ Doctors. The NHS tried something much less ambitious with NHS direct, deliver healthcare without having to invest in HR, that got stopped after less than 6 months.

Neural networks are the gene therapy/nuclear fusion of the software world. Loads of potential but decades of work has yielded little results - Humans are simply much harder to replace than first thought.

Musk isn't an idiot but he also isn't on the same intellect level as the guys at DeepMind - I don't think Musk has ever looked at a Nature paper let alone been able to publish in Nature almost on demand - Starcraft been referenced in Nature, that is coming, the ultimate nerd conquest. But Google doesn't think the DeepMind team can deliver full autonomy, so am not sure who can??

Its a really exciting time to be alive interms of seeing how this plays out. The promise of ture AI is so great, but we are still so far from releasing it. Having a great idea is easy, but the devil is in the detail, and detail is what may stop FSD from ever happening.

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 25th April 09:48

[RobDickinson]

PMacanGTS said:

RobDickinson said:

They Taycan is rated at 311 miles NEDC which will work out to 250miles or less EPA, less than the 2012 model s.

No one really cares about range when you get over 250 miles. No one drives further than that without needing to take a piss.

According to https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to...

Converting the Taycan 311 mile NEDC to EPA gives 217 miles. ( divide by 1.43)

Lets hope it does better...

[Digga]

PMacanGTS said:

RobDickinson said:

They Taycan is rated at 311 miles NEDC which will work out to 250miles or less EPA, less than the 2012 model s.

No one really cares about range when you get over 250 miles. No one drives further than that without needing to take a piss.

Those who know, will know...

[EddieSteadyGo]

RobDickinson said:

Elon has pretty much bet the company on that, designing and building your own chip has cost them $1bn plus I suspect with the rest, 150 AI hires this year etc It looks like it is going OK so far but its still a gamble

This "full stack" approach from Tesla looks quite arrogant to me. And it adds a lot of risk. And it doesn't maximise the opportunity.

So Tesla want to build the chip, the software, the main hardware, and then sell the car. So like a full stack.

If they make a mistake, or it turns out someone else finds a much better solution (which is highly possible when you are at the cutting edge of tech), they risk the whole thing.

Whereas if they continued using strategic partners, like their previous approach with Nvidia, they can share the investment cost with other companies and help target their own money into areas like the software, which should be their USP. They won't control the full IP in this way, but being realistic they aren't going to beat Nvidia or Intel or AMD over the long term at making chips.

[Burwood]

RobDickinson said:

PMacanGTS said:

Witchfinder said:

Let's give credit where it's due. The Germans' range, performance, and self-driving technology are a generation behind Tesla at the moment.

I'm not so sure. On the software side, they've certainly got a head start in terms of million of miles of real world data to improve AI. However, Porsche have been developing their ev technology for a long time, and have invested billions of Euros. When they launch the Taycan later this year I expect that to be an instant Model S killer.

They Taycan is rated at 311 miles NEDC which will work out to 250miles or less EPA, less than the 2012 model s.

Few will care. As I have said before, it's the overall package not the range or winning a 0-60