Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
RobDickinson said:
Maxwell would only be worthwhile to someone making a lot of batteries.
If it saves 20% it'll save tesla $1bn or so a year.
It should give them 2000 cycles to 90% which works out to 600,000miles, so thats the million miles Elon was talking about ( at ~> 80% soh) - this is something no other manufacturer cares about really.
And yet there wasn't even a rumour of even a sniff of interest from BYD, CATL, LG Chem, Panasonic, or any auto maker with an interest in EVs that has hinted at making it's own batteries (e.g. VAG), or a PE house with an interest in IP based deals.If it saves 20% it'll save tesla $1bn or so a year.
It should give them 2000 cycles to 90% which works out to 600,000miles, so thats the million miles Elon was talking about ( at ~> 80% soh) - this is something no other manufacturer cares about really.
As I said previously, it might well turn out to be a fantastic bit of business by Tesla. But then again, it might not.
JPJPJP said:
RobDickinson said:
Maxwell would only be worthwhile to someone making a lot of batteries.
If it saves 20% it'll save tesla $1bn or so a year.
It should give them 2000 cycles to 90% which works out to 600,000miles, so thats the million miles Elon was talking about ( at ~> 80% soh) - this is something no other manufacturer cares about really.
And yet there wasn't even a rumour of even a sniff of interest from BYD, CATL, LG Chem, Panasonic, or any auto maker with an interest in EVs that has hinted at making it's own batteries (e.g. VAG), or a PE house with an interest in IP based deals.If it saves 20% it'll save tesla $1bn or so a year.
It should give them 2000 cycles to 90% which works out to 600,000miles, so thats the million miles Elon was talking about ( at ~> 80% soh) - this is something no other manufacturer cares about really.
As I said previously, it might well turn out to be a fantastic bit of business by Tesla. But then again, it might not.
Tesla paid about $200m for it, the previous owners need to be shot if it can deliver $1b of savings a year within 12 months. These deals are often for the people in the company and not the technology.
Maybe some magic will come quickly, but it’s far too cheap to have a secret sauce. The business world doesn’t work that way.
Maybe some magic will come quickly, but it’s far too cheap to have a secret sauce. The business world doesn’t work that way.
Musk said he would give retail investors fair warning if things were to head south. Is this the warning?
Amazing how quickly things turned from profitable all quarters going forward with years of backlog...... to structural unprofitability and the company going bankrupt in 10 months on current trajectory.
Kind of shifty to admit the company is running out of cash in private whilst blagging to investors in public.
How confident can musk be on fsd, if he feels the best use of his time is to check expense sheets personally?
Seems to me musk,failed,to forecast the degree to which 3 would disrupt SX sales.
It can’t be that just a total surprise to musk, so retail investors should be annoyed. I’m considering cancelling my car order over this.
Amazing how quickly things turned from profitable all quarters going forward with years of backlog...... to structural unprofitability and the company going bankrupt in 10 months on current trajectory.
Kind of shifty to admit the company is running out of cash in private whilst blagging to investors in public.
How confident can musk be on fsd, if he feels the best use of his time is to check expense sheets personally?
Seems to me musk,failed,to forecast the degree to which 3 would disrupt SX sales.
It can’t be that just a total surprise to musk, so retail investors should be annoyed. I’m considering cancelling my car order over this.
JPJPJP said:
Electrek did this piece
https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla-completes-max...
It is surely understandable that a $235m deal by a company that burns that much cash in a month of normal business is not viewed by the mainstream media as being the top news story
Given its track record of acquisitions - solar city anyone - the evidence of Tesla being a great acquirer is just not there yet
If maxwell technology is so groundbreaking then, the theory goes, there would have been, at least, noises of other interested parties considering a bid / deal. $235m in the future of batteries is, frankly, washers.
That means it either turns out to be a great piece of business by Tesla, or just noise.
Let’s see
It’s another jam tomorrow deal. As such it is an irrelevance because all that actually matters is that Tesla still exists at the point in time when Maxwell May have a product. In fact it is worse than that because the deal started when TSLA stk was rising and they’ve concluded it during the biggest bear fall in its history. It’s an all stock deal where every morning they’ve sat down at the table and had to offer Maxwells more stock because it’s now worth less than the day before. And Tesla has a strong track record at delivering terrible corporate actions. https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla-completes-max...
It is surely understandable that a $235m deal by a company that burns that much cash in a month of normal business is not viewed by the mainstream media as being the top news story
Given its track record of acquisitions - solar city anyone - the evidence of Tesla being a great acquirer is just not there yet
If maxwell technology is so groundbreaking then, the theory goes, there would have been, at least, noises of other interested parties considering a bid / deal. $235m in the future of batteries is, frankly, washers.
That means it either turns out to be a great piece of business by Tesla, or just noise.
Let’s see
Will Maxwell shareholders be sitting on that TSLA stk or binning it as soon as legally permissible in the open market?
That’s the real issue with the deal. It’s a stock dilution that has further armed the sell side. While at the same time it has a negative EPS somis bow adding to the cash burn.
If TSLA has announced they had binned the deal it would almost certainly have benefitted the share price in its current state.
RobDickinson said:
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
Prove it wrong. 
Rob, you have absolutely no credible comprehension of economics or the markets and have dedicated your life to distributing propaganda and deceptions while willfully remaining ignorant.
However, I persist in educating you as you do show signs of promise and I have noted that you are now spouting as gospel on other EV threads little things that I have taught you over the years.
I’m going to give you a D at this point but you must keep up the good work and try harder with your learning. Maybe ultimately look into joining a different cult like the Taliban or Mormons?
DonkeyApple said:
RobDickinson said:
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
Prove it wrong. Rob, you have absolutely no credible comprehension of economics or the markets and have dedicated your life to distributing propaganda and deceptions while willfully remaining ignorant.
However, I persist in educating you as you do show signs of promise and I have noted that you are now spouting as gospel on other EV threads little things that I have taught you over the years.
I’m going to give you a D at this point but you must keep up the good work and try harder with your learning. Maybe ultimately look into joining a different cult like the Taliban or Mormons?
sambucket said:
Musk said he would give retail investors fair warning if things were to head south. Is this the warning?
Seems to me musk,failed,to forecast the degree to which 3 would disrupt SX sales.
Something that I and others have mentioned on here before. If the data on model3vins is accurate (it is widely accepted as being so), then sales of the S & X in the Netherlands have been absolutely smashed to pieces by the 3Seems to me musk,failed,to forecast the degree to which 3 would disrupt SX sales.
Similar story in Norway, particularly for the S
http://www.model3vins.com/tesla-registrations
Burwood said:
The article says they gave them company stock, JP. So no cash burn 
Several companies claim a pathway to 400 watts per kg. I dont care who wins. The consumer will. They will get there. I like to use the nand flash analogy. Remember when a CF card the size of an after dinner mint held 16mb. Now a micro so can hold 1TB. Not the same physics but they’ll get to wherever they have to be in time. SS batteries next big thing.
The trouble is that the advancement in CF was process improvement - more accurate 'machinery' - and follows decades of steady improvements in technique and delivery.Several companies claim a pathway to 400 watts per kg. I dont care who wins. The consumer will. They will get there. I like to use the nand flash analogy. Remember when a CF card the size of an after dinner mint held 16mb. Now a micro so can hold 1TB. Not the same physics but they’ll get to wherever they have to be in time. SS batteries next big thing.
The battery thing is dependent on novel chemistry and novel manufacturing techniques. The problem being that the more energy you pack into less space, the greater the tendency for spontaneous self disassembly (kaboom!). So the successful inventor isn't required to make what's already made 'more accurately' - they have to come up with a completely unique new way of making things. Specifically things that are difficult and dangerous to make right.
A good indicator of how difficult this is, is the number of articles that mention nanotechnology as a solution. That's the fairy dust of modern research.
So we're looking for a 'breakthrough' - a unique discovery - more than marginal improvements. Many, many companies and research departments have realised how important this is, so it's not as though there aren't a lot of minds trying to identify a solution. Go and search The Register's archive - there are hundreds of articles about different groups announcing a breakthrough that just needs a little more development to get to market (i.e. not go boom when you make it big enough to be useful). So far... nothing.
I'm sure it'll happen with time, but this isn't quite the problem of CF where you continually throw money at improving existing techniques and get a continuous improvement over time. The next battery technology could just as well come from left field as a known big operator in the industry. And it's even possible that the chemistry just isn't stable enough and imposes a hard limit on how dense a battery can become in this sort of use case.
Edited by Tuna on Saturday 18th May 14:16
Heres Johnny said:
DonkeyApple said:
RobDickinson said:
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
Prove it wrong. Rob, you have absolutely no credible comprehension of economics or the markets and have dedicated your life to distributing propaganda and deceptions while willfully remaining ignorant.
However, I persist in educating you as you do show signs of promise and I have noted that you are now spouting as gospel on other EV threads little things that I have taught you over the years.
I’m going to give you a D at this point but you must keep up the good work and try harder with your learning. Maybe ultimately look into joining a different cult like the Taliban or Mormons?
JPJPJP said:
Something that I and others have mentioned on here before. If the data on model3vins is accurate (it is widely accepted as being so), then sales of the S & X in the Netherlands have been absolutely smashed to pieces
Have you also seen this one that shows that the M3 sales have been pretty much a one month wonder in Norway? The data is said to be real time so unless there’s been only one small boat load in the last 6 weeks it’s pretty low 
Yeah sad. I’m converted TO THE DARK SIDE. Should have sold at 290 all the signs were already there. This is just confirmation of what was very clear from price cuts and store closures...
I can live with the low demand and falling share price, but I can’t take the constant bulls
t anymore. Earnings guidance in particular. Maybe a little modesty is needed.
I can live with the low demand and falling share price, but I can’t take the constant bulls
t anymore. Earnings guidance in particular. Maybe a little modesty is needed. Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 18th May 19:47
"to top that off a Model X P100DL inventory black/white interior, with FSD was selling for $99,100 w/ 3400 miles. The craziest part is they were giving a 20k adjustment for current owners making it $79,100 and qualifies for all rebates."
From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
sambucket said:
Yeah sad. I’m converted TO THE DARK SIDE. Should have sold at 290 all the signs were already there. This is just confirmation of what was very clear from price cuts and store closures...
It's learning Sam. And I mean that. I've been there myself. Not with Tesla, but I've overreached myself before with what I *thought* I knew about the market; and it gave me a bloody nose.If you take the lessons now, it will pay back for you later in life.
EddieSteadyGo said:
It's learning Sam. And I mean that. I've been there myself. Not with Tesla, but I've overreached myself before with what I *thought* I knew about the market; and it gave me a bloody nose.
If you take the lessons now, it will pay back for you later in life.
Yes that’s certainly true. In an ideal world, better to learn from other people’s mistakes though!If you take the lessons now, it will pay back for you later in life.
Still hopeful Tesla will do more cool new things, but looks like a long slog.
Reading the full email musk sent, his message wasn’t half as bad as the selected excerpts in the press made out.
But im still interpreting as guidance to expect negative cash flow in all four quarters....
gangzoom said:
"to top that off a Model X P100DL inventory black/white interior, with FSD was selling for $99,100 w/ 3400 miles. The craziest part is they were giving a 20k adjustment for current owners making it $79,100 and qualifies for all rebates."
From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
Wow. I’m really surprised to see you say that as I know you have been very happy with your car. From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
Surely Tesla won’t actually disappear? Maybe not continue as they are now but someone would want to buy it. Haven’t they made a big enough splash for someone like VAG to want them?
Perhaps I am being naive. But isn’t there main problem massive R&D burn? At some point won’t they get sensible and slow down and consolidate what they have which is actually quite a good company.
Or is there a much more fundamental problem like lack of sales?
sambucket said:
Yeah sad. I’m converted TO THE DARK SIDE. Should have sold at 290 all the signs were already there. This is just confirmation of what was very clear from price cuts and store closures...
I can live with the low demand and falling share price, but I can’t take the constant bullst anymore. Earnings guidance in particular. Maybe a little modesty is needed.
If I recall correctly Sam you said it was an immaterial holding. So no biggie.I can live with the low demand and falling share price, but I can’t take the constant bulls
t anymore. Earnings guidance in particular. Maybe a little modesty is needed. Edited by sambucket on Saturday 18th May 19:47
Part if the selloff is due to macro events. It’s a whipsaw market and also very pricey at the moment.
JPJPJP said:
The email is in here
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/17/elon-musk-call...
10 months is quite a long time in Tesla / musk terms
But when the co is burning 700m a quarter and the shares are down a whack since the recent money raise, it can still pass quickly
Whether maxwell will play a big part anytime is yet to be seen. There is some good tech in there, but I’m not sure at what stage of development / commercialisation it is at yet
I saw on the millwardbrown brand rank that Tesla brand value was up 60% in 2018.
It's funny how the press misrepresents literally everything related to Tesla. Almost like there is an agenda. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/17/elon-musk-call...
10 months is quite a long time in Tesla / musk terms
But when the co is burning 700m a quarter and the shares are down a whack since the recent money raise, it can still pass quickly
Whether maxwell will play a big part anytime is yet to be seen. There is some good tech in there, but I’m not sure at what stage of development / commercialisation it is at yet
I saw on the millwardbrown brand rank that Tesla brand value was up 60% in 2018.
What Elon said is that at q1 cash burn rate the funds raised would be gone in 10 months, simple maths..
But the press pretty much entirety reported that Tesla would be bancrupt in 10 months.
Not really the same thing
RobDickinson said:
JPJPJP said:
The email is in here
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/17/elon-musk-call...
10 months is quite a long time in Tesla / musk terms
But when the co is burning 700m a quarter and the shares are down a whack since the recent money raise, it can still pass quickly
Whether maxwell will play a big part anytime is yet to be seen. There is some good tech in there, but I’m not sure at what stage of development / commercialisation it is at yet
I saw on the millwardbrown brand rank that Tesla brand value was up 60% in 2018.
It's funny how the press misrepresents literally everything related to Tesla. Almost like there is an agenda. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/17/elon-musk-call...
10 months is quite a long time in Tesla / musk terms
But when the co is burning 700m a quarter and the shares are down a whack since the recent money raise, it can still pass quickly
Whether maxwell will play a big part anytime is yet to be seen. There is some good tech in there, but I’m not sure at what stage of development / commercialisation it is at yet
I saw on the millwardbrown brand rank that Tesla brand value was up 60% in 2018.
What Elon said is that at q1 cash burn rate the funds raised would be gone in 10 months, simple maths..
But the press pretty much entirety reported that Tesla would be bancrupt in 10 months.
Not really the same thing
Edited by Burwood on Saturday 18th May 21:51
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