Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Burwood]

AstonZagato said:

Burwood said:

You have to laugh Space X apparently worth 10X revenue. Who comes up with this st. I predict the man will fall on his sword and soon. And what's the bet his fans will blame everyone but Musk for that failure.

There are currently 33 companies in the S&P500 trading on >10x revenues. So perhaps not far fetched.

However, the last time there were more companies trading above that metric was March 2000 when the number was 36. It didn't end well...

Don't remind me

[Tuna]

DonkeyApple said:

Tuna said:

Surely the bigger problem is that it has been financed as a company that was going to disrupt the auto industry, so it is utterly dependent on shareholders that expect something that will be bigger than VW or Toyota and overturn the car industry? That means that acting like 'just a car company' is against the shareholders' interests.

So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.

Recent share price actions points to the exact opposite. The shareholders are all demanding revenues with profit today and punishing anything that is linked to possible revenues down the line. That’s the big change over the last 12 months. ‘Just a car company’ is precisely what the investors are demanding today and that’s what the company needs to deliver before continuing on its longer term path.

Well yes, there is the big shift, but it's a relatively recent phenomenon as share holders have realised that to make jam tomorrow, you need to not go bust today. That doesn't help Tesla because it spent the last ten years in 'jam tomorrow mode'.

What I'm trying to say is Tesla was built on promises, and suddenly people are asking how sustainable that is if the short term output doesn't look to be quite as disruptive as they thought.

[hyphen]

Tuna said:

Surely the bigger problem is that it has been financed as a company that was going to disrupt the auto industry, so it is utterly dependent on shareholders that expect something that will be bigger than VW or Toyota and overturn the car industry? That means that acting like 'just a car company' is against the shareholders' interests.

So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.

Majority of the shares are held by institutions aren't they?

They don't care about Tesla being disruptive you would think.

They probably just hope to ride this bandwagon and, if the music stops, cash out at a profit.

[Burwood]

hyphen said:

Tuna said:

Surely the bigger problem is that it has been financed as a company that was going to disrupt the auto industry, so it is utterly dependent on shareholders that expect something that will be bigger than VW or Toyota and overturn the car industry? That means that acting like 'just a car company' is against the shareholders' interests.

So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.

Majority of the shares are held by institutions aren't they?

They don't care about Tesla being disruptive you would think.

They probably just hope to ride this bandwagon and, if the music stops, cash out at a profit.

Depending on the fund, many are forced to buy the stock. I think they care that since 2016 we’ve seen the broad index add 15% and tech indexes add 20. Tesla is negative.

[RobDickinson]

how positive would you be if you bought in when Musk did?

[DonkeyApple]

Tuna said:

Well yes, there is the big shift, but it's a relatively recent phenomenon as share holders have realised that to make jam tomorrow, you need to not go bust today. That doesn't help Tesla because it spent the last ten years in 'jam tomorrow mode'.

What I'm trying to say is Tesla was built on promises, and suddenly people are asking how sustainable that is if the short term output doesn't look to be quite as disruptive as they thought.

I agree. To coin a phrase ‘they’ve got to be in it to win it’ and that’s really what it is suddenly all about. Any talk of future revenues are of zero relevance to the equity holders if they get wiped out. Just like this time last year there is a really strong chance that the bond holders end up owning all the equity. Which has to be pretty appealing to them right now if they believe there is still jam tomorrow.

[Burwood]

RobDickinson said:

how positive would you be if you bought in when Musk did?

I would have sold a long time ago. Less than today’s price. To be honest I never would have dabbled in them back then.

[gangzoom]

Burwood said:

Every review i've watched has said that the Tesla is not as well bolted together. Quality of materials. Feel factor. That's what they say. Are they making it up?

The cars don't have as much soft touch plastics or trim clips as some, but overall quality is fine.

I just cleaned ours in preparation for bank holiday/summer road trips. Your be hard pressed to tell these seats have been abused by child seats/toddlers/trips to the tip since day one of ownership some 24k ago.

.



I would also suggest soft touch plastics have little correlation to build quality, look who finished last in the latest see JD Power survey, Tesla are often as bad. If you build quality most premium cars are awful.

https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2019...

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 20th May 05:49

[RobDickinson]

If you watch the autogefühl reviews of the 3 and eqc etc you can see the difference in the interior.

It's relative minor details but important to some

[Witchfinder]

The Teslas I've driven and ridden in have felt roughly equivalent in quality to the Fords I've owned. Not bad, but not really up there with the Audi's I've had. Good materials for the most part, but a bit squeaky with the occasional rattle. There's something about a feeling of solidity. I'd say they're not too far off Volkswagen, at least on the inside.

[Burwood]

Gangzoom- Id love ivory seats but kids put me off. You're brave

[ntiz]

Witchfinder said:

The Teslas I've driven and ridden in have felt roughly equivalent in quality to the Fords I've owned. Not bad, but not really up there with the Audi's I've had. Good materials for the most part, but a bit squeaky with the occasional rattle. There's something about a feeling of solidity. I'd say they're not too far off Volkswagen, at least on the inside.

To me it’s never been about the materials it’s the way they seem to put it together. In both of my cars the dash doesn’t fit around the screen properly. I can actually fit my little finger in the gap. I have had to have the clips in my doors replaced 3 times because the door card just falls off in my hand. The leather and wood etc is actually nice stuff. Which makes it all the more frustrating.

It baffles me that someone walks around some of these cars with a quality control check list and says “yep that’s perfect” then sends it off to a customer.

[anonymous-user]

MUSK, just install a gopro inside one of your beta FSD vehicles, and make all this go away.

Why wouldn't you?

[Burwood]

RobDickinson said:

If you watch the autogefühl reviews of the 3 and eqc etc you can see the difference in the interior.

It's relative minor details but important to some

That reviewer is exceptional at his job. He makes not having 100% perfect English a plus. I always tune in for his thoughts on various cars. I guy seems very happy

[coetzeeh]

ooffff - sub $200 now

[anonymous-user]

And, in line with the share price move, the bonds are trading down to the low 80s. Which pushes the yield up to 8.8%

[Munter]

ntiz said:

It baffles me that someone walks around some of these cars with a quality control check list and says “yep that’s perfect” then sends it off to a customer.

I think you've got the internal monologue wrong there. I suspect it's more like: "Yep that's all there"

[gangzoom]

Burwood said:

Gangzoom- Id love ivory seats but kids put me off. You're brave

We've had Fruit shoots, chocolate of all kinds, mud (which looks like chocolate after a while), wee, and at least one bit of toddler poo on those seats, but you couldn't tell by just looking .

The Google Huawei situation looks bad for everyone interested in tech though, each Tesla sold have stupid number of cameras all round and the Model 3 even in the interior, the cars talk to Tesla all the time. It's not hard to see the party banning Tesla outright from China overnight for spying risks.

If Tesla is banned from China its surely game over? The China/US trade war though is going to hurt lots more people if it escalates.

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 20th May 16:37

[Burwood]

gangzoom said:

Burwood said:

Gangzoom- Id love ivory seats but kids put me off. You're brave

We've had Fruit shoots, chocolate of all kinds, mud (which looks like chocolate after a while), wee, and at least one bit of toddler poo on those seats, but you couldn't tell by just looking .

The Google Huawei situation looks bad for everyone interested in tech though, each Tesla sold have stupid number of cameras all round and the Model 3 even in the interior, the cars talk to Tesla all the time. It's not hard to see the party banning Tesla outright from China overnight for spying risks.

If Tesla is banned from China its surely game over? The China/US trade war though is going to hurt lots more people if it escalates.

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 20th May 16:37

It will be resolved soon enough.

My wife's car rear seats are like a buffet. Im cleaning it weekly and it still looks like a tip. Rasins and hoola hoops are particularly invasive. I need to remove the back seat and hose it out. Those Innocent smoothies are a nightmare

[anonymous-user]

https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1130470005...

Tesla: Pulled off an engineering/design miracle, stock now ~ flat over six years.

Domino's: New pizza sauce, stock up 6x in six years.

H/t Morgan Housel

Elon is in to the end

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/34210735204192...

“Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out.“

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 20th May 20:39