Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
JPJPJP said:
https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1130470005...
Tesla: Pulled off an engineering/design miracle, stock now ~ flat over six years.
Domino's: New pizza sauce, stock up 6x in six years.
H/t Morgan Housel
Elon is in to the end
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/34210735204192...
“Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out.“
I have to say. Anyone in banking knows that you don’t have to sell stock to cash in. He’s mortgaged already. Banks provide a nice facility to unlock corner stone holders equity to mask a sale. Musk is selling Tesla stock like a MF and no one knows. He will be sweating bullets now. The banks could start selling. He’s deep into negative margin. Unless things change they are bust. Tesla: Pulled off an engineering/design miracle, stock now ~ flat over six years.
Domino's: New pizza sauce, stock up 6x in six years.
H/t Morgan Housel
Elon is in to the end
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/34210735204192...
“Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out.“
Edited by JPJPJP on Monday 20th May 20:39
Burwood said:
I have to say. Anyone in banking knows that you don’t have to sell stock to cash in. He’s mortgaged already. Banks provide a nice facility to unlock corner stone holders equity to mask a sale. Musk is selling Tesla stock like a MF and no one knows. He will be sweating bullets now. The banks could start selling. He’s deep into negative margin. Unless things change they are bust.
Musk being bust and Tesla being bust aren’t the same thing.I’m up 2% today as I bought at 200, It’s anyone’s guess where it will be in a week.
He’ll certainly have been assigning more stock to cover his margin. He’s restricted to being only 4x leveraged.
It seems a bit pointless tweeting FILO given that the slightest whiff of public selling and he would completely destroy the company before he’d worked more than a few million.
Anyway, it seems to have found a firm floor off 200. The sell off today was about the macro economics of the China trade war and Friday about autopilot news that probably guaranteed there won’t be a million minicabs next year, which anyone sober or non religious knew anyway. My gut feeling is that this close above 200 suggests the current rebasing is done and that eyes will be more focused on Q2 data looking at sales. So long as those numbers are better than Q1 then it’s probably going to tick along looking at cash burn.
If they do need more money to get the Y on sale and China up and running then it seems unlikely that even the most cavalier investment manager would be willing to lob in his clients’ money and risk losing their job and that leaves a debt for equity deal as the front runner. In reality that might be the best thing for the company. If they can’t tap WS with equity sales any more then the listing serves no purpose. Get rid of the listing, get rid of the drag on the business, let the bond holders take it over and take it forward.
It seems a bit pointless tweeting FILO given that the slightest whiff of public selling and he would completely destroy the company before he’d worked more than a few million.
Anyway, it seems to have found a firm floor off 200. The sell off today was about the macro economics of the China trade war and Friday about autopilot news that probably guaranteed there won’t be a million minicabs next year, which anyone sober or non religious knew anyway. My gut feeling is that this close above 200 suggests the current rebasing is done and that eyes will be more focused on Q2 data looking at sales. So long as those numbers are better than Q1 then it’s probably going to tick along looking at cash burn.
If they do need more money to get the Y on sale and China up and running then it seems unlikely that even the most cavalier investment manager would be willing to lob in his clients’ money and risk losing their job and that leaves a debt for equity deal as the front runner. In reality that might be the best thing for the company. If they can’t tap WS with equity sales any more then the listing serves no purpose. Get rid of the listing, get rid of the drag on the business, let the bond holders take it over and take it forward.
Heres Johnny said:
Burwood said:
I have to say. Anyone in banking knows that you don’t have to sell stock to cash in. He’s mortgaged already. Banks provide a nice facility to unlock corner stone holders equity to mask a sale. Musk is selling Tesla stock like a MF and no one knows. He will be sweating bullets now. The banks could start selling. He’s deep into negative margin. Unless things change they are bust.
Musk being bust and Tesla being bust aren’t the same thing.I’m up 2% today as I bought at 200, It’s anyone’s guess where it will be in a week.
I was really hoping they push other car companies to make even better cars. The consumer is the loser. I hope I’m wrong
Heres Johnny said:
Musk being bust and Tesla being bust aren’t the same thing.
They can be though. Nothing that’s happening at Tesla hasn’t been seen a thousand times before. In a prolonged negative situation he can only keep funding margin with equity for a relatively short period until the margin percentage is increased dramatically to compensate for the increasing counter party risk and then its cash only, no stock and if there’s no cash then the stock held as collateral starts to be sold off which in this situation would be total wipe out for the company unless they offered it off exchange for pennies in the pound to the bond holders as part of a total debt for equity transition.
I can’t quite believe that it would come to that but he has been a total cowboy and utterly dishonest which is why he finds himself where he is today as it all catches up with him.
OK so...
Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
RobDickinson said:
OK so...
Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
Obviously. The whole industry is getting a kicking because consumers are running out of debt after an insane 20 year binge with only a 1 year half time. Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
If everyone is getting a kicking then the weakest, the ones with the weakest sales, weakest prospects, smallest cash reserves, weakest ability to borrow are the ones who might not get back up.
In a room where you have to back someone you are going to take backing from the weak and divert to the strong.
Absolutely nothing about any of this is remotely complex are difficult to comprehend.
To add to all of the macro economic global issues you have an industry which has absolutely no need to rush headlong into making EV at a rate that consumers or suppliers cannot handle as they have revenues from ICE and while the transition will be costly they don’t have to bet the farm whereas TSLA is a one trick pony with zero revenues from anything other than EV sales which to add further to their woes are only being bought where there are tax subsidies which further compounds the risks.
PS Have you worked out yet that Elon Musk isn’t Tony Stark?
RobDickinson said:
OK so...
Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
Frankly I’ve never thought car companies make any money at all. Every 10 years they go bust. Consumers demand new models every 5-6 years. Sucking billions for £300 net profit per car. Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
RobDickinson said:
OK so...
Ford are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
Whole industry in sFord are firing 7000, BMW loosing heaps - recalling thousands of cars for catching fire (No NHTSA investigation..?), Mercedes sales falling, GM is a mess, Nissan profits hit rock bottom - likely to continue to fall, FCA recall 400,000 cars, huge inventory of unwanted ICE cars yet Tesla have problems...
t. Have to dip into retained profits, or rely on subsidy.Tesla have never made a profit to retain. Have had gazillions in subsidies alteady, so teet is dry.
Oops.
Burwood said:
Frankly I’ve never thought car companies make any money at all. Every 10 years they go bust. Consumers demand new models every 5-6 years. Sucking billions for £300 net profit per car.
I agree. It's almost like the free market is being fked by there being too many players who exist on state subsidy or something Since car makers have struggled to be profitable (on the whole) during the biggest spending spree the world has ever seen, i wonder how they're all set once the banks run out of mugs to loan money to?
Still, some car companies are very profitable indeed. They are the ones that have branched out into merchendising!
Burwood said:
Frankly I’ve never thought car companies make any money at all. Every 10 years they go bust. Consumers demand new models every 5-6 years. Sucking billions for £300 net profit per car.
Consumers demand new models as the car companies don't build their cars to last more than 6 years without major bills.hyphen said:
Consumers demand new models as the car companies don't build their cars to last more than 6 years without major bills.
Consumers are also keeping cars longer and longer realising they can last more than 3 years heck they can last 4/5/6/7/8/9+++ years. That knowledge and the massive entry price and the law of diminishing returns means people sit tight and then only change much later. A good scrappage scheme will help hugely.
Also the whole EV thing people know it’s coming and trying to find how many ICE they will have to buy or stretch out one or two then into EV they go
Welshbeef said:
Consumers are also keeping cars longer and longer realising they can last more than 3 years heck they can last 4/5/6/7/8/9+++ years. That knowledge and the massive entry price and the law of diminishing returns means people sit tight and then only change much later.
A good scrappage scheme will help hugely.
Also the whole EV thing people know it’s coming and trying to find how many ICE they will have to buy or stretch out one or two then into EV they go
The problem is that the data doesn’t show the truth in the case of the UK. We have the massive acceleration of car purchasing from the mid 90s when consumer debt was deregulated and then the near zero sales of the Credit Crunch. A good scrappage scheme will help hugely.
Also the whole EV thing people know it’s coming and trying to find how many ICE they will have to buy or stretch out one or two then into EV they go
In the UK we’ve recently dropped from a rather low 8 years to about 7 if I recall.
The UK is split into those who run old cars and those trapped in debt facilities where they have to keep cycling through new vehicles every couple of years. But the government works rather quite hard to target that first group and stimulate them to buy.
The simple environmental problem facing cars is exactly the same as it is in all areas and that is the weaponisingnof consumers with unfettered debt. The Governments of the West from the mid 90s deliberately lifted more and more regulations that limited how much people could borrow so as to stimulate an artificial feel good factor of everyone feeling more wealthy and assets such as property rapidly rising as the amount of money available to fuel inflation was rising year in year. Within an incredible short space of time the whole Western society shifted from just buying goods out of income to importing absolutely vast amounts of goods using today’s income, tomorrow’s income, their pension provisions and ultimately income they would never earn!
We as a society manifestly do not need a scrappage scheme we need a reversal of consumption habits and that means going back to limiting consumer debt which only serves to impoverish. 20 years of excess lending and everyone is poorer not wealthier.
It’s the big elephant in the room. Any sane person knows that you cannot fix a problem caused by excess human consumption by consuming more goods. It can only be solved by consuming less.
As pointed out, the global car industry is hideously inefficient and intensely deeply woven into local governments. They live on endless subsidies and rely on governments to regularly change laws to stimulate product demand and to change regulation to facilitate consumer debt empowerment.
But is any action being taken to change the automotive industry? To ween it off subsidies and bailouts? To disarm consumers so that they cannot just endlessly buy goods that they don’t need? To incentivise manufacturers to make cars that last a lifetime? No. Nothing is actually changing. Even the farce of the supposed EV revolution is all about subsidies and consumer debt facilities. In the cold light of day it is not a solution nor improvement but just more of the same toxic excess consumerism. And Tesla is the absolute poster boy of that excess consumption as individuals have rushed to have the latest gadget not because they have needed are car or even cared about the environment. The latter is something consumers just say to justify buying what they want when they want.
Revert consumer credit to being linked properly to a consumers wealth and watch the excess consumption that is poisoning everyone just evaporate. Watch people over night suddenly start looking after their car and making it last three times longer because they can no longer throw it away every two years for something more shiny.
In reality we want the exact opposite of a scrappage scheme. The concept of a scrappage scheme is that absolute antithis of common sense and the poster boy for the insanity that is the car industry.
DonkeyApple said:
The problem is that the data doesn’t show the truth in the case of the UK. We have the massive acceleration of car purchasing from the mid 90s when consumer debt was deregulated and then the near zero sales of the Credit Crunch.
In the UK we’ve recently dropped from a rather low 8 years to about 7 if I recall.
The UK is split into those who run old cars and those trapped in debt facilities where they have to keep cycling through new vehicles every couple of years. But the government works rather quite hard to target that first group and stimulate them to buy.
The simple environmental problem facing cars is exactly the same as it is in all areas and that is the weaponisingnof consumers with unfettered debt. The Governments of the West from the mid 90s deliberately lifted more and more regulations that limited how much people could borrow so as to stimulate an artificial feel good factor of everyone feeling more wealthy and assets such as property rapidly rising as the amount of money available to fuel inflation was rising year in year. Within an incredible short space of time the whole Western society shifted from just buying goods out of income to importing absolutely vast amounts of goods using today’s income, tomorrow’s income, their pension provisions and ultimately income they would never earn!
We as a society manifestly do not need a scrappage scheme we need a reversal of consumption habits and that means going back to limiting consumer debt which only serves to impoverish. 20 years of excess lending and everyone is poorer not wealthier.
It’s the big elephant in the room. Any sane person knows that you cannot fix a problem caused by excess human consumption by consuming more goods. It can only be solved by consuming less.
As pointed out, the global car industry is hideously inefficient and intensely deeply woven into local governments. They live on endless subsidies and rely on governments to regularly change laws to stimulate product demand and to change regulation to facilitate consumer debt empowerment.
But is any action being taken to change the automotive industry? To ween it off subsidies and bailouts? To disarm consumers so that they cannot just endlessly buy goods that they don’t need? To incentivise manufacturers to make cars that last a lifetime? No. Nothing is actually changing. Even the farce of the supposed EV revolution is all about subsidies and consumer debt facilities. In the cold light of day it is not a solution nor improvement but just more of the same toxic excess consumerism. And Tesla is the absolute poster boy of that excess consumption as individuals have rushed to have the latest gadget not because they have needed are car or even cared about the environment. The latter is something consumers just say to justify buying what they want when they want.
Revert consumer credit to being linked properly to a consumers wealth and watch the excess consumption that is poisoning everyone just evaporate. Watch people over night suddenly start looking after their car and making it last three times longer because they can no longer throw it away every two years for something more shiny.
In reality we want the exact opposite of a scrappage scheme. The concept of a scrappage scheme is that absolute antithis of common sense and the poster boy for the insanity that is the car industry.
The average age in 2017 was 8.1 years and slowly rising. In the UK we’ve recently dropped from a rather low 8 years to about 7 if I recall.
The UK is split into those who run old cars and those trapped in debt facilities where they have to keep cycling through new vehicles every couple of years. But the government works rather quite hard to target that first group and stimulate them to buy.
The simple environmental problem facing cars is exactly the same as it is in all areas and that is the weaponisingnof consumers with unfettered debt. The Governments of the West from the mid 90s deliberately lifted more and more regulations that limited how much people could borrow so as to stimulate an artificial feel good factor of everyone feeling more wealthy and assets such as property rapidly rising as the amount of money available to fuel inflation was rising year in year. Within an incredible short space of time the whole Western society shifted from just buying goods out of income to importing absolutely vast amounts of goods using today’s income, tomorrow’s income, their pension provisions and ultimately income they would never earn!
We as a society manifestly do not need a scrappage scheme we need a reversal of consumption habits and that means going back to limiting consumer debt which only serves to impoverish. 20 years of excess lending and everyone is poorer not wealthier.
It’s the big elephant in the room. Any sane person knows that you cannot fix a problem caused by excess human consumption by consuming more goods. It can only be solved by consuming less.
As pointed out, the global car industry is hideously inefficient and intensely deeply woven into local governments. They live on endless subsidies and rely on governments to regularly change laws to stimulate product demand and to change regulation to facilitate consumer debt empowerment.
But is any action being taken to change the automotive industry? To ween it off subsidies and bailouts? To disarm consumers so that they cannot just endlessly buy goods that they don’t need? To incentivise manufacturers to make cars that last a lifetime? No. Nothing is actually changing. Even the farce of the supposed EV revolution is all about subsidies and consumer debt facilities. In the cold light of day it is not a solution nor improvement but just more of the same toxic excess consumerism. And Tesla is the absolute poster boy of that excess consumption as individuals have rushed to have the latest gadget not because they have needed are car or even cared about the environment. The latter is something consumers just say to justify buying what they want when they want.
Revert consumer credit to being linked properly to a consumers wealth and watch the excess consumption that is poisoning everyone just evaporate. Watch people over night suddenly start looking after their car and making it last three times longer because they can no longer throw it away every two years for something more shiny.
In reality we want the exact opposite of a scrappage scheme. The concept of a scrappage scheme is that absolute antithis of common sense and the poster boy for the insanity that is the car industry.
Of course, that’s the average and implies that there are many much older. The average age of cars at scrapping is about 14 years.
ICEs will be around for a while yet.
Yeah but no but yeah.
We need to consume less. But it would be good if we can start replacing the new cars going into the global fleet with vehicles that pollute less.
My wife wanted a Toyota Landcruiser V8. I persuaded her that a Tesla was a better solution (helped by the fact that you can’t buy the Toyota in the U.K. anymore). She is very happy indeed - actually happier than if we’d bought the Toyota. Lifetime emissions for the Tesla will be a fraction of the Toyota’s.
We need to consume less. But it would be good if we can start replacing the new cars going into the global fleet with vehicles that pollute less.
My wife wanted a Toyota Landcruiser V8. I persuaded her that a Tesla was a better solution (helped by the fact that you can’t buy the Toyota in the U.K. anymore). She is very happy indeed - actually happier than if we’d bought the Toyota. Lifetime emissions for the Tesla will be a fraction of the Toyota’s.
Burwood said:
red_slr said:
My Tesla deposit arrived back in my account, was starting to worry a bit tbh!
Why did you cancel?Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff