Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
I see they've changed the pricing again, this time they've altered what you'll pay off you add FSD after purchase (it's now the same as of you spec it when you order).
Back when I was considering buying a Model-S around the middle of last year, the constant price and interest rate changes really made me nervous about it. You literally have no idea if you're going to buy a car today for £68k, only to find the price drops by £5k next week.
Back when I was considering buying a Model-S around the middle of last year, the constant price and interest rate changes really made me nervous about it. You literally have no idea if you're going to buy a car today for £68k, only to find the price drops by £5k next week.
RobDickinson said:
DonkeyApple said:
Lend is estimated to be closer to $1b than 0.5b
I thought you are supposed to know what the f
k you are talking about? honestly you spew bullst at every damned chance and never back a fking word of it up. If you had a f
king clue you would know this stuff is public and reported, no need to estimate.https://ir.tesla.com/node/19821/html
Here is the relevant section if you are too f
king dumb to scroll."As of April 30, 2019, the outstanding balance under these loans is approximately $208.9 million. In addition, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, an affiliate of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, has made various extensions of credit to Mr. Musk and the Trust. Interest on these loans accrues at market rates, and Goldman Sachs Bank USA received customary fees and expense reimbursements in connection with these loans. As of April 30, 2019, the outstanding balance under these loans is approximately $213.0 million. Finally, Bank of America, N.A., an affiliate of Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, has made extensions of credit to the Trust and guaranteed by Mr. Musk, which are secured by shares of Tesla. Interest on the loans accrues at market rates, and Bank of America, N.A. received customary fees in connection with these loans. As of April 30, 2019, the outstanding loan balance was approximately $85.5 million. "
Here is the share pledge also.
https://ir.tesla.com/node/19726/html
Now this is the absolute last time i respond to your outstanding complete and utter irrelevant drivel.
sambucket said:
yes someone else could buy them, but would it be the same investment in the software?
I've had x3 software updates this week, the latest has introduced 'navigate on AutoPilot' , new dynamic dash display for better blind spot monitoring, and the web browser is now working well again.No other car company has any where the ambition or skill set Tesla has in the software department, and if Tesla goes down I cannot see VAG spending anywhere near as much on software.
Tesla's fate really is out of their hands, if battery prices aren't falling as predicted and they cannot get a $35k Model 3 to be profitable in the next few months its game over, really quite simple.
It's a real bummer, that uncertainty over software is impacting (my) purchasing decisions. Software won't just freeze in time like legacy auto systems. There is burn involved in even treading water.
And that's not even touching upon other issues like parts, service etc. But software is massively important to Tesla. It's a big differentiator with pros and cons.
All this uncertainty created by changing prices, I hope it's all worth it. Find it hard to beleive it would have been less damaging to just come clean in Jan about demand, and say 'we are slashing prices now to clear inventory, kicking profit into 2022 and prioritising system stability over everything else'. Price would have dived to 200 from 320, but at least there is transparentcy and people can make purchasing stability from relative certainty.
And that's not even touching upon other issues like parts, service etc. But software is massively important to Tesla. It's a big differentiator with pros and cons.
All this uncertainty created by changing prices, I hope it's all worth it. Find it hard to beleive it would have been less damaging to just come clean in Jan about demand, and say 'we are slashing prices now to clear inventory, kicking profit into 2022 and prioritising system stability over everything else'. Price would have dived to 200 from 320, but at least there is transparentcy and people can make purchasing stability from relative certainty.
gangzoom said:
sambucket said:
yes someone else could buy them, but would it be the same investment in the software?
I've had x3 software updates this week, the latest has introduced 'navigate on AutoPilot' , new dynamic dash display for better blind spot monitoring, and the web browser is now working well again.No other car company has any where the ambition or skill set Tesla has in the software department, and if Tesla goes down I cannot see VAG spending anywhere near as much on software.
Tesla's fate really is out of their hands, if battery prices aren't falling as predicted and they cannot get a $35k Model 3 to be profitable in the next few months its game over, really quite simple.
Toaster said:
ersonally I can't get excited about software drops dynamic/automatic this or that. I get in the car turn the key and go from A-B I bet 95% of drivers are like this. Dont get me wrong I love my cars and vans but have a life, I also get fed up of updates on my phone and computer I also like technology, what it does for me but for heavens sake I think often these updates are just like marketing tricks to keep the influenceable and xxxx interested in a company (hope that doesn't sound rude it wasn't meant to be).
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car! sambucket said:
Toaster said:
ersonally I can't get excited about software drops dynamic/automatic this or that. I get in the car turn the key and go from A-B I bet 95% of drivers are like this. Dont get me wrong I love my cars and vans but have a life, I also get fed up of updates on my phone and computer I also like technology, what it does for me but for heavens sake I think often these updates are just like marketing tricks to keep the influenceable and xxxx interested in a company (hope that doesn't sound rude it wasn't meant to be).
Tesla is a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car! Have a look at a company you may or may not have heard of
https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=21...
https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=34... (2003)
https://www.windriver.com/automated-to-autonomous/
https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=12...
Its been going on a long time its not Tesla leading the way its Tesla who have no other legacy product and its marketing machine
Toaster said:
Oh I understand that, but who cares if they are a software company all manufacturers will be down this road look at the 2015 article about John Deer https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/...
https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=21...
Have a look at a company you may or may not have heard of https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=34... (2003)
https://www.windriver.com/automated-to-autonomous/
https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=12...
Its been going on a long time its not Tesla leading the way its Tesla who have no other legacy product and its marketing machine
Exucation that is the tricky bit. And to give Tesla some credit, they are successfully operating and testing market leading software in almost 500k cars on the road right now.https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=21...
Have a look at a company you may or may not have heard of https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=34... (2003)
https://www.windriver.com/automated-to-autonomous/
https://www.windriver.com/news/press/pr.html?ID=12...
Its been going on a long time its not Tesla leading the way its Tesla who have no other legacy product and its marketing machine
There is always better software, better cars, better scientists. But no one else is executing right now like Tesla is in this space. Mobileye is a very large execption.
RobDickinson said:
DonkeyApple said:
Lend is estimated to be closer to $1b than 0.5b
I thought you are supposed to know what the fk you are talking about? honestly you spew bullst at every damned chance and never back a fking word of it up. If you had a f
king clue you would know this stuff is public and reported, no need to estimate.https://ir.tesla.com/node/19821/html
Here is the relevant section if you are too f
king dumb to scroll."As of April 30, 2019, the outstanding balance under these loans is approximately $208.9 million. In addition, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, an affiliate of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, has made various extensions of credit to Mr. Musk and the Trust. Interest on these loans accrues at market rates, and Goldman Sachs Bank USA received customary fees and expense reimbursements in connection with these loans. As of April 30, 2019, the outstanding balance under these loans is approximately $213.0 million. Finally, Bank of America, N.A., an affiliate of Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, has made extensions of credit to the Trust and guaranteed by Mr. Musk, which are secured by shares of Tesla. Interest on the loans accrues at market rates, and Bank of America, N.A. received customary fees in connection with these loans. As of April 30, 2019, the outstanding loan balance was approximately $85.5 million. "
Here is the share pledge also.
https://ir.tesla.com/node/19726/html
Now this is the absolute last time i respond to your outstanding complete and utter irrelevant drivel.
So, $500m is what he has borrowed from the institutions that took part in the funding round.
A little note from your own documents:
Elon Musk has pledged shares of our common stock to secure certain bank borrowings. If these shares are sold pursuant to the pledges, such sales could cause our stock price to decline.
Certain banking institutions have made extensions of credit to Elon Musk, our Chief Executive Officer. We are not a party to these loans, which are partially secured by pledges of a portion of the Tesla common stock currently owned by Mr. Musk. If the price of our common stock were to decline substantially and Mr. Musk were unable to avoid a sale of the pledged shares (for example, by contributing additional collateral or reducing his leverage), Mr. Musk may be forced by one or more of the banking institutions to sell shares of Tesla common stock under the terms of his loans. Any such sales could cause the price of our common stock to decline.
Now, do try to be civilised and do stop talking total tripe about the mechanisms of collaterised lending. Maybe stick to posting propaganda about how everyone in the world is buying a Tesla and that it’s all everybody else’s fault?
Oh and don’t forget, he’s not Tony Stark and he’s not your BFF.
Seekingalpha talks of $1bn of loans for Musk against his shares and mentions $213 as the margin call price
However, it also says that (only) 13.4m shares are pledged
I would say there is a question over it's accuracy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257765-elon-musk...
However, it also says that (only) 13.4m shares are pledged
I would say there is a question over it's accuracy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257765-elon-musk...
DonkeyApple said:
Now, do try to be civilised and do stop talking total tripe about the mechanisms of collaterised lending. Maybe stick to posting propaganda about how everyone in the world is buying a Tesla and that it’s all everybody else’s fault?
It'd be an improvement Rob if you were to stop using so many profanities in your posts too. You may think they emphasis your point but they're bordering on infantile and don't do you any favours.Anyway, back to Tesla. All quiet on the UK Model 3's - are the first deliveries still coming in a couple of weeks or was June a pipedream? I'm not sure how long a ship takes to sail from the West coast to here but I'd imagine it'll have to set off very soon to make even the end of June.
JPJPJP said:
Seekingalpha talks of $1bn of loans for Musk against his shares and mentions $213 as the margin call price
However, it also says that (only) 13.4m shares are pledged
I would say there is a question over it's accuracy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257765-elon-musk...
Yup. The issue with SA as well as ZeroHedge is that they are really just distribution networks for uncorruburated retail propaganda like many of the EV websites. However, it also says that (only) 13.4m shares are pledged
I would say there is a question over it's accuracy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257765-elon-musk...
I believe that the 13.4m relates to the total facility but the debate is how much has been drawn down upon against that facility to date. The bulk of any draw has been at a substantially higher share price than today’s levels.
Musk has another 20m shares to technically throw into the pot but that isn’t how the margining works in reality. What typically happens in a draw-down event that leads to a margin call is that the counterparty sees little positive value in taking in even more of the same stock as collateral because in reality this increases your risk instead of reducing so you will push for cash, other collateral and even reduce the margin of the existing collateral. Something to bear in mind is that one of the fastest ways for a lender to derisk their exposure is to sell stock short on their book knowing that what they are effectively doing is selling the client’s stock in a way that doesn’t get reported as a client sale until the short is settled as X point in the future. There will be shorting already for hedging purposes, the cost of which will be being borne by the borrower.
A real risk is that an entity once it enters a margin call situation can become totally beholden to the lender if they do not have cash to fund the gap. You can have the situation that the lender holds all the cards and knows that they can start selling the client stock whenever they wish and that this will destroy all equity value. It’s at that point they can politely ask for the client’s other companies, houses, planes, boats and a turn on the wife for everyone in the credit department.
Borrowing against a stock holding in your own company is extremely common and for the most part beneficial but when it goes wrong then it is devastating and the borrower hands over total control to their creditors.
gangzoom said:
No other car company has any where the ambition or skill set Tesla has in the software department, and if Tesla goes down I cannot see VAG spending anywhere near as much on software.
Everyone else has realised that you don't build everything by yourself, you bring the best vendors in to supply you. Hence most OEMs seem likely to put native Android into their cars, as seen in the Polestar 2. Tesla with their proprietary software and charging system are starting to look increasingly like Blackberry.Edited by Witchfinder on Wednesday 22 May 16:03
Witchfinder said:
Everyone else has realised that you don't build everything by yourself, you bring the best vendors in to supply you. Hence most OEMs seem likely to put native Android into their cars, as seen in the Polestar 2. Tesla with their proprietary software and charging system are starting to look increasingly like Blackberry.
Do you think Polestar has a long future with Android, given recent events and Chinese links? There are noises that Huawei will move into the car OS space which given polestar's plans for China, might be tempting for them. Maybe not a terrible idea to have control of your own OS right now. Assuming China lets Tesla use it.
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 22 May 16:34
DonkeyApple said:
Borrowing against a stock holding in your own company is extremely common and for the most part beneficial but when it goes wrong then it is devastating and the borrower hands over total control to their creditors.
Absolutely nothing to do with EV's or Tesla but I think that's what scuppered Simon Jordan who owned Crystal Palace FC.Witchfinder said:
Everyone else has realised that you don't build everything by yourself, you bring the best vendors in to supply you. Hence most OEMs seem likely to put native Android into their cars, as seen in the Polestar 2. Tesla with their proprietary software and charging system are starting to look increasingly like Blackberry.
Given what's happened to Hawai I would suggest relying on Android is the last thing you want to do. Edited by Witchfinder on Wednesday 22 May 16:03
Volvo is a now a Chinese company, if Google can ineffect 'disown' Hawai for essentially political reasons why not Volvo? Equally China can kill Tesla (or any other western brand) in China overnight.
gangzoom said:
Given what's happened to Hawai I would suggest relying on Android is the last thing you want to do.
Volvo is a now a Chinese company, if Google can ineffect 'disown' Hawai for essentially political reasons why not Volvo? Equally China can kill Tesla (or any other western brand) in China overnight.
My Golf has built in Nav that I never use because I hook up my phone and use Google Maps. The car has both the Apple and Android car software built in, and any updates can be done on the phone - there's no need for VW to support anything else, really.Volvo is a now a Chinese company, if Google can ineffect 'disown' Hawai for essentially political reasons why not Volvo? Equally China can kill Tesla (or any other western brand) in China overnight.
In fact, Android Auto doesn't even need Android Auto to be enabled on the car, it's a separate App (and what I use in the S2000 as that has no modern tech/touchscreen.
To summarise, there's no real need for manufacturers to provide software updates, as the phone makers will do it for them.
gangzoom said:
Given what's happened to Hawai I would suggest relying on Android is the last thing you want to do.
Tesla's code is just as subject to restrictions as Android, but the cost for them to process regulatory and trade hurdles is higher as they have to shoulder more of the burden of proof.If you see how many security fixes go into Android (or Windows, iOS, Linux etc.) at each update, there's no reason to want to have to do that yourself. Especially when the software you're sending out has access to a few tons of lethal machinery. The ideal is just as with phones - let someone else do the heavy lifting and then skin it and add your own unique apps. There's no value to end customers of having compiled your own kernel or written your own bluetooth drivers.
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