Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
sambucket said:
Exucation that is the tricky bit. And to give Tesla some credit, they are successfully operating and testing market leading software in almost 500k cars on the road right now.
There is always better software, better cars, better scientists. But no one else is executing right now like Tesla is in this space. Mobileye is a very large execption.
Oh I am not deriding Tesla what I am saying is that there are nice players out there that supply software stuff Tesla has not created this from the ground up. As an example my understanding is that Tesla used FOTA software from Redbend. It is not uncommon for any software developer to use 3rd pay high end stuff from companies most of us have never heard of.There is always better software, better cars, better scientists. But no one else is executing right now like Tesla is in this space. Mobileye is a very large execption.
DonkeyApple said:
Yup. The issue with SA as well as ZeroHedge is that they are really just distribution networks for uncorruburated retail propaganda like many of the EV websites.
I believe that the 13.4m relates to the total facility but the debate is how much has been drawn down upon against that facility to date. The bulk of any draw has been at a substantially higher share price than today’s levels.
Musk has another 20m shares to technically throw into the pot but that isn’t how the margining works in reality. What typically happens in a draw-down event that leads to a margin call is that the counterparty sees little positive value in taking in even more of the same stock as collateral because in reality this increases your risk instead of reducing so you will push for cash, other collateral and even reduce the margin of the existing collateral. Something to bear in mind is that one of the fastest ways for a lender to derisk their exposure is to sell stock short on their book knowing that what they are effectively doing is selling the client’s stock in a way that doesn’t get reported as a client sale until the short is settled as X point in the future. There will be shorting already for hedging purposes, the cost of which will be being borne by the borrower.
A real risk is that an entity once it enters a margin call situation can become totally beholden to the lender if they do not have cash to fund the gap. You can have the situation that the lender holds all the cards and knows that they can start selling the client stock whenever they wish and that this will destroy all equity value. It’s at that point they can politely ask for the client’s other companies, houses, planes, boats and a turn on the wife for everyone in the credit department.
Borrowing against a stock holding in your own company is extremely common and for the most part beneficial but when it goes wrong then it is devastating and the borrower hands over total control to their creditors.
What if the borrower isn't married?I believe that the 13.4m relates to the total facility but the debate is how much has been drawn down upon against that facility to date. The bulk of any draw has been at a substantially higher share price than today’s levels.
Musk has another 20m shares to technically throw into the pot but that isn’t how the margining works in reality. What typically happens in a draw-down event that leads to a margin call is that the counterparty sees little positive value in taking in even more of the same stock as collateral because in reality this increases your risk instead of reducing so you will push for cash, other collateral and even reduce the margin of the existing collateral. Something to bear in mind is that one of the fastest ways for a lender to derisk their exposure is to sell stock short on their book knowing that what they are effectively doing is selling the client’s stock in a way that doesn’t get reported as a client sale until the short is settled as X point in the future. There will be shorting already for hedging purposes, the cost of which will be being borne by the borrower.
A real risk is that an entity once it enters a margin call situation can become totally beholden to the lender if they do not have cash to fund the gap. You can have the situation that the lender holds all the cards and knows that they can start selling the client stock whenever they wish and that this will destroy all equity value. It’s at that point they can politely ask for the client’s other companies, houses, planes, boats and a turn on the wife for everyone in the credit department.
Borrowing against a stock holding in your own company is extremely common and for the most part beneficial but when it goes wrong then it is devastating and the borrower hands over total control to their creditors.
gangzoom said:
I've had x3 software updates this week, the latest has introduced 'navigate on AutoPilot' , new dynamic dash display for better blind spot monitoring, and the web browser is now working well again.
.
..of which one was a bug fix because they screwed up an earlier release. The number of updates is less important than the quality.
gangzoom said:
No other car company has any where the ambition or skill set Tesla has in the software department
As you like posting videos... take a look at Mercs augmented reality sat nav, available on the entry A class cars.... Merc are so in the dark ages..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SatR7T8PsY
Or BMWs external view of the car they generate dynamically...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RziW6FPfLGQ
sambucket said:
Toaster said:
ersonally I can't get excited about software drops dynamic/automatic this or that. I get in the car turn the key and go from A-B I bet 95% of drivers are like this. Dont get me wrong I love my cars and vans but have a life, I also get fed up of updates on my phone and computer I also like technology, what it does for me but for heavens sake I think often these updates are just like marketing tricks to keep the influenceable and xxxx interested in a company (hope that doesn't sound rude it wasn't meant to be).
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car! The fact that the car has to have continous updates, would be a major negative in my world. It certainly not an "appeal" at all.
Heres Johnny said:
gangzoom said:
I've had x3 software updates this week, the latest has introduced 'navigate on AutoPilot' , new dynamic dash display for better blind spot monitoring, and the web browser is now working well again.
.
..of which one was a bug fix because they screwed up an earlier release. The number of updates is less important than the quality.
gangzoom said:
No other car company has any where the ambition or skill set Tesla has in the software department
As you like posting videos... take a look at Mercs augmented reality sat nav, available on the entry A class cars.... Merc are so in the dark ages..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SatR7T8PsY
Or BMWs external view of the car they generate dynamically...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RziW6FPfLGQ
monkfish1 said:
sambucket said:
Toaster said:
ersonally I can't get excited about software drops dynamic/automatic this or that. I get in the car turn the key and go from A-B I bet 95% of drivers are like this. Dont get me wrong I love my cars and vans but have a life, I also get fed up of updates on my phone and computer I also like technology, what it does for me but for heavens sake I think often these updates are just like marketing tricks to keep the influenceable and xxxx interested in a company (hope that doesn't sound rude it wasn't meant to be).
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car! The fact that the car has to have continous updates, would be a major negative in my world. It certainly not an "appeal" at all.
Heres Johnny said:
As you like posting videos... take a look at Mercs augmented reality sat nav, available on the entry A class cars....
Well when Tesla go bankrupt later this year thats great news, I'll happily swap our X for an EQC if needed
.Am surprised you haven't sold your S yet? I've already taken all the inteiror photos of X ready for the ad.
gangzoom said:
Well when Tesla go bankrupt later this year thats great news, I'll happily swap our X for an EQC if needed.
Am surprised you haven't sold your S yet? I've already taken all the inteiror photos of X ready for the ad.
After what has been on your seats I am not sure anyone on here will be buying it .Am surprised you haven't sold your S yet? I've already taken all the inteiror photos of X ready for the ad.
Burwood said:
Are you being facetious Johnny? I'm not entirely sure. BMW/Merc look pretty good to me
SarcasticThe idea that only Tesla can write sexy software is a joke. They’ve nothing sexy by way of UI in comparison, that just leaves self driving which has now caught up with Mobileye from 3-4 years ago.
I don’t want Tesla to go bust (I bought shares yesterday, I wonder if the vocal supporters have?) , but like being an alcoholic (so I’m told) the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. I’m not sure Musk and his fanbois acknowledge they have any
Heres Johnny said:
Sarcastic
The idea that only Tesla can write sexy software is a joke. They’ve nothing sexy by way of UI in comparison, that just leaves self driving which has now caught up with Mobileye from 3-4 years ago.
I don’t want Tesla to go bust (I bought shares yesterday, I wonder if the vocal supporters have?) , but like being an alcoholic (so I’m told) the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. I’m not sure Musk and his fanbois acknowledge they have any
We must have driven different Teslas. UI is like 5% of the software btwThe idea that only Tesla can write sexy software is a joke. They’ve nothing sexy by way of UI in comparison, that just leaves self driving which has now caught up with Mobileye from 3-4 years ago.
I don’t want Tesla to go bust (I bought shares yesterday, I wonder if the vocal supporters have?) , but like being an alcoholic (so I’m told) the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. I’m not sure Musk and his fanbois acknowledge they have any
Brave to buy at 200. I’m as bullish as anyone (long term) but short term looks very rough I fully expect to see 150 by end of month.
Ryder35 said:
gangzoom said:
Well when Tesla go bankrupt later this year thats great news, I'll happily swap our X for an EQC if needed.
Am surprised you haven't sold your S yet? I've already taken all the inteiror photos of X ready for the ad.
After what has been on your seats I am not sure anyone on here will be buying it .Am surprised you haven't sold your S yet? I've already taken all the inteiror photos of X ready for the ad.
Tuna said:
gangzoom said:
Given what's happened to Hawai I would suggest relying on Android is the last thing you want to do.
Tesla's code is just as subject to restrictions as Android, but the cost for them to process regulatory and trade hurdles is higher as they have to shoulder more of the burden of proof.If you see how many security fixes go into Android (or Windows, iOS, Linux etc.) at each update, there's no reason to want to have to do that yourself. Especially when the software you're sending out has access to a few tons of lethal machinery. The ideal is just as with phones - let someone else do the heavy lifting and then skin it and add your own unique apps. There's no value to end customers of having compiled your own kernel or written your own bluetooth drivers.
For example, if every car uses the same software then the front cover of motering articles will have nothing to say as the next the generation of car buyers have zero interest in the more traditional differentiators.
In the coming decades we will probably see tech companies merging with automotive or similar big changes.
I guess the big unknown is whether the car carries the tech or the driver’s smartphone does.
If we are heading into an era where people don’t privately own a car but instead summon one when needed then maybe the entire ‘ID’ and ‘settings’ will be on the person’s phone and whatever car turns up from their chosen ‘brand image projection’ company automatically sets itself up based on information held on the phone?
So what software do they write that is good?
UI is just a skin
Radio, Spotify, etc are poorly implemented versions
Satnav is passable but not as good as Waze
AP is very variable, feature rich but immature in execution with bugs, phantom braking etc an regulators starting to frown on its abuse
Windscreen wipers and high beam that are patchy
Security without two factor auth etc
Websites that often contradict basic performance stats on models
If someone can point me at something other than over the air updates I’m all ears.
And yes, 200 is looking expensive now
UI is just a skin
Radio, Spotify, etc are poorly implemented versions
Satnav is passable but not as good as Waze
AP is very variable, feature rich but immature in execution with bugs, phantom braking etc an regulators starting to frown on its abuse
Windscreen wipers and high beam that are patchy
Security without two factor auth etc
Websites that often contradict basic performance stats on models
If someone can point me at something other than over the air updates I’m all ears.
And yes, 200 is looking expensive now
Heres Johnny said:
So what software do they write that is good?
UI is just a skin
Radio, Spotify, etc are poorly implemented versions
Satnav is passable but not as good as Waze
AP is very variable, feature rich but immature in execution with bugs, phantom braking etc an regulators starting to frown on its abuse
Windscreen wipers and high beam that are patchy
Security without two factor auth etc
Websites that often contradict basic performance stats on models
If someone can point me at something other than over the air updates I’m all ears.
And yes, 200 is looking expensive now
Why did you buy at 200?UI is just a skin
Radio, Spotify, etc are poorly implemented versions
Satnav is passable but not as good as Waze
AP is very variable, feature rich but immature in execution with bugs, phantom braking etc an regulators starting to frown on its abuse
Windscreen wipers and high beam that are patchy
Security without two factor auth etc
Websites that often contradict basic performance stats on models
If someone can point me at something other than over the air updates I’m all ears.
And yes, 200 is looking expensive now
DonkeyApple said:
For example, if every car uses the same software then the front cover of motering articles will have nothing to say as the next the generation of car buyers have zero interest in the more traditional differentiators.
Well I'm still looking forward to a car stereo that can play music from my phone and doesn't throw a fit when my wife gets in with her phone. Some of that integration stuff isn't about one company writing 'better' software than the others, it's about standards being imposed by players sensible enough to not be screwing around trying to 'lock you in', That's not a differentiator... it's the opposite
Heres Johnny said:
And yes, 200 is looking expensive now
Am really puzzled why you would put MORE money into a company that is doomed to fail? Surely owning one of these things is a big enough gamble at present without having to fork out more cash? If I had the write off accident tomorrow and was offered £75K cheque again I would grad bit and run a mile.
Burwood said:
monkfish1 said:
sambucket said:
Toaster said:
ersonally I can't get excited about software drops dynamic/automatic this or that. I get in the car turn the key and go from A-B I bet 95% of drivers are like this. Dont get me wrong I love my cars and vans but have a life, I also get fed up of updates on my phone and computer I also like technology, what it does for me but for heavens sake I think often these updates are just like marketing tricks to keep the influenceable and xxxx interested in a company (hope that doesn't sound rude it wasn't meant to be).
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car! The fact that the car has to have continous updates, would be a major negative in my world. It certainly not an "appeal" at all.
monkfish1 said:
Burwood said:
monkfish1 said:
sambucket said:
Toaster said:
ersonally I can't get excited about software drops dynamic/automatic this or that. I get in the car turn the key and go from A-B I bet 95% of drivers are like this. Dont get me wrong I love my cars and vans but have a life, I also get fed up of updates on my phone and computer I also like technology, what it does for me but for heavens sake I think often these updates are just like marketing tricks to keep the influenceable and xxxx interested in a company (hope that doesn't sound rude it wasn't meant to be).
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car! The fact that the car has to have continous updates, would be a major negative in my world. It certainly not an "appeal" at all.
sambucket said:
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car!
Part of the reason why I didn't pull the trigger in April when they launched the SR+ versions in Germany.It's nice to have car software evolve, getting new features over the air for free is a plus. But it's also nice to have well defined working stuff out of the box and being able to rely on that. I think they need to evolve if they want to attract 'regular' buyers that like the product but look at the total proposition objectively.
Plus:
- among the most efficient EVs on the market.
- good range, nice to drive, quick.
- super charger network + CCS compatibility is very flexible
- neat styling inside and out, positive image, positive image
- software updates OTA can introduce nice new features for free but code seems to also regress frequently and OTA mechanism allows Tesla to ship half baked stuff.
- parts supply is very unreliable for a mass produced car
- electronics are closed source. no way for ex-network garages to do anything complex
- the company and product are unpredictable, from pricing to ordering process to resale values to insurance costs to TCO...
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