Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Toaster]

Just looked at Tesla Share price, I do not hold Tesla share's and wondered where out was to date regarding musk's 420 comment the news looks interesting

Tesla’s Stock Crashes as Wall Street Predicts Armageddon

: Tesla’s stock is down another 6% today, the sixth consecutive session TSLA shares have fallen. It is now down 40% year-to-date.

https://www.ccn.com/tesla-stock-crashes-wall-stree...

[anonymous-user]

Elon basically admitted in that leaked email that guidance is nowhere near certain, and they might hit 90k with a lot of luck.

And of course he has leaked similar emails that proved wildly optimstic before.

yet I still bought back in today. I miss my tesla shares....

Glutton for punishment. It's like an abusive relationship. Is this gaslighting?

[Burwood]

sambucket said:

Elon basically admitted in that leaked email that guidance is nowhere near certain, and they might hit 90k with a lot of luck.

And of course he has leaked similar emails that proved wildly optimstic before.

yet I still bought back in today. I miss my tesla shares....

Glutton for punishment. It's like an abusive relationship. Is this gaslighting?

Who hasn’t been in such a relationship
Unless you’re Karen Valentine

[DonkeyApple]

sambucket said:

Any reason why you think Q2 earnings will surprise?

The reason why I think it’s likely is that a lot of the current analysis has stopped focusing on the key metric of sales, which is the only relevant metric at this moment in time. They’ve been diverted by more exciting things and that can typically lead to a situation where the key metric isn’t actually as cr4p as the market ended up pricing in due to the frenzy around other matters. If that makes sense?

There’s blood in the water and lots of thrashing about but take a step back and away from it all and nothing has changed at all. It’s still a company that lives or dies tomorrow on its sales. That is all that matters. If they sell enough cars then they can stem the cash drain and stay alive.

The market at the moment is behaving as if the sales numbers for Q2 will be the same as Q1. I don’t think that’s likely. They have the 10k units that were in transit, they still have backorders to fulfill and we are now 6 months in to them learning how to post a product another country, a very simple task that they made very difficult by assuming everyone in the world is an idiot and that they knew how to do it properly.

I think the sales figs will be better than Q1. The general numbers will look better as there isn’t the bond repayment to create such an exciting headline, they’ve had another three months to trim capex etc.

I’m currently on holiday but noticed this morning that Musk spoke yesterday and the price rallied. That’s the first time he has spoken and the market hasn’t flogged his stock because he was still yammering in about all that irrelevant jam tomorrow fantasy cr4p. He got a positive response because he was talking about jam today. That is the only thing that matters and he seems to be having an extremely hard time comprehending that for the first time in his life he has to join the human race and stop living in his fantasy world where everyone is an idiosyncratic and he is the chosen one who knows how to do everything correctly.

[AstonZagato]

Elon seems to have shifted his pixie dust sprinkling to SpaceX for the time being:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-482...
Talking about launching 12,000 satellites to create a global internet broadband provider. To put it into context, the current number of operational satellites is c.2,000.

[Burwood]

AstonZagato said:

Elon seems to have shifted his pixie dust sprinkling to SpaceX for the time being:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-482...
Talking about launching 12,000 satellites to create a global internet broadband provider. To put it into context, the current number of operational satellites is c.2,000.

The guy is a piece of work. Tesla is teetering on bankruptcy and he needs 10b to achieve this. Someone elses money, again. He thinks it's no problem if Space X gets a 100b valuation.

[AstonZagato]

Burwood said:

AstonZagato said:

Elon seems to have shifted his pixie dust sprinkling to SpaceX for the time being:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-482...
Talking about launching 12,000 satellites to create a global internet broadband provider. To put it into context, the current number of operational satellites is c.2,000.

The guy is a piece of work. Tesla is teetering on bankruptcy and he needs 10b to achieve this. Someone elses money, again. He thinks it's no problem if Space X gets a 100b valuation.

Well "teetering on bankruptcy" is a touch strong. It's still a $35bn market cap company with $4bn of cash on the balance sheet. It does face some significant problems in the medium-term, unless it can sort numerous issues but it is in no short-term danger.

[anonymous-user]

DonkeyApple said:

The reason why I think it’s likely is that a lot of the current analysis has stopped focusing on the key metric of sales, which is the only relevant metric at this moment in time. They’ve been diverted by more exciting things and that can typically lead to a situation where the key metric isn’t actually as cr4p as the market ended up pricing in due to the frenzy around other matters. If that makes sense?

There’s blood in the water and lots of thrashing about but take a step back and away from it all and nothing has changed at all. It’s still a company that lives or dies tomorrow on its sales. That is all that matters. If they sell enough cars then they can stem the cash drain and stay alive.

That does make sense. Panic came from "Tesla will be bankrupt in 10 months". But to reframe in a more positive way, 10 months is probably the furthest from bankruptcy Tesla has ever been! They actually have a bit of a runway now to prove they can sell out production at reasonable margins. And if that can be demonstrated, attention will turn back to CAGR which is what drove the high price in the first place.

[Burwood]

AstonZagato said:

Burwood said:

AstonZagato said:

Elon seems to have shifted his pixie dust sprinkling to SpaceX for the time being:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-482...
Talking about launching 12,000 satellites to create a global internet broadband provider. To put it into context, the current number of operational satellites is c.2,000.

The guy is a piece of work. Tesla is teetering on bankruptcy and he needs 10b to achieve this. Someone elses money, again. He thinks it's no problem if Space X gets a 100b valuation.

Well "teetering on bankruptcy" is a touch strong. It's still a $35bn market cap company with $4bn of cash on the balance sheet. It does face some significant problems in the medium-term, unless it can sort numerous issues but it is in no short-term danger.

It is a touch strong. A reaction to how frivolous the Space X news is.

[Witchfinder]

To put the number of satellites into context, each one is tiny, and they can be launched sixty at a time. It's not the same as launching one big satellite.

[Heres Johnny]

Witchfinder said:

To put the number of satellites into context, each one is tiny, and they can be launched sixty at a time. It's not the same as launching one big satellite.

Yep - India put over 100 into orbit in one go 2 years ago.

But its still better than not being able to do it.

[Tuna]

Witchfinder said:

To put the number of satellites into context, each one is tiny, and they can be launched sixty at a time. It's not the same as launching one big satellite.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html

[AstonZagato]

Fun infographic of US EV sales by model from Jan 2012 to today.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/37424...

[anonymous-user]

Appreciating that it isn't perfect data, but I am not seeing signs on model3vins.com of any evidence of improving sales in the US, Norway or Netherlands

I know there is the 10k surge to hit the data at some point soon - when the boat comes in

But even so, there needs to be a storming week next week to make May look good as far as I can see

Leaks of an email from Elon to the contrary though

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-will-beat-q4-...

"From: Elon Musk

Date: Wed 5/22/2019 10:45 PM

To: Everybody

As of yesterday, we had over 50,000 net new orders for this quarter. Based on current trends, we have a good chance of exceeding the record 90,700 deliveries of Q4 last year and making this the highest deliveries/sales quarter in Tesla history!

In order to achieve this, we need sustained output of 1,000 Model 3’s per day. Almost all parts of the Model 3 production system have exceeded 1000 units on multiple days (congratulations!!) and we’ve averaged about 900/day this week, so we’re only about 10% away from 7000/week.

If we rally hard, we can do it!

Thanks for your great work,

Elon​"

Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 24th May 15:46

[gangzoom]

AstonZagato said:

Fun infographic of US EV sales by model from Jan 2012 to today.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/37424...

So essentially if Tesla went pop this year the EV market might as well be dead .

[anonymous-user]

How useful have VINs been historically at forecasting deliveries? Did VINs predict Q1 miss?

[Heres Johnny]

sambucket said:

How useful have VINs been historically at forecasting deliveries? Did VINs predict Q1 miss?

No - far from it - Bloomberg were something like over by 35% and I have an MS and MX one which was also over - how much to do with the "in transit" inventory I don't know. Maybe Dec was a funny month and Jan simply caught up which gave the impression of more stuff being built and shipped but it was hangovers from Dec.

[anonymous-user]

sambucket said:

How useful have VINs been historically at forecasting deliveries? Did VINs predict Q1 miss?

The miss wasn't obvious in the data, but it did show that there was no upside surprise coming and that it would be close.

But that was no different to the broader expectation in the market really, so the value of the data as a forecasting tool is very limited

What the data does show (imo and with many caveats that could lead to it being wholly wrong) is that the S is a busted flush and that the X is only selling at a fraction of the rate it was prior to the 3 being launched

[Heres Johnny]

JPJPJP said:

The miss wasn't obvious in the data, but it did show that there was no upside surprise coming and that it would be close.

But that was no different to the broader expectation in the market really, so the value of the data as a forecasting tool is very limited

What the data does show (imo and with many caveats that could lead to it being wholly wrong) is that the S is a busted flush and that the X is only selling at a fraction of the rate it was prior to the 3 being launched

Tesla might not care if the 75D MS orders are heading to P3D orders as the margin is probably higher on the 3

And "a fraction"... well 9/10s is a fraction

[Tuna]

gangzoom said:

So essentially if Tesla went pop this year the EV market might as well be dead .

That seems to be the issue. I think Tesla need to see an uptick in their competitors, which would indicate a growing interest in the whole sector rather than people who just want 'a Tesla'.