Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
jjwilde said:
They almost sold as many units as a 2015 Tesla? I mean if next months are as good then cool, something is happening. I will wait and see.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-demand-for-small-cars-weakens-more-auto-makers-drop-them-from-u-s-lineups-11547391601America is large vehicle land. Its why Tesla launched the X so quick...
During the Model Y launch, they teased with images of a Pickup.
As that's the American markets predominately buy, Pickups and SUV's, smaller car sales have been on the decline for a while. Both Jag and Audi could have launched a small EV first, would have been simpler probably, but they didn't want to.
If they can compete with the spacious X and its cool doors and other cool factors, then they will compete elsewhere too.
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 19:28
New report about the European landscape:
Report: https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/file...
Funded by https://www.transportenvironment.org/funders:
214 Electrics may be available to buy in 2021 and in 2025:
Report: https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/file...
Funded by https://www.transportenvironment.org/funders:
214 Electrics may be available to buy in 2021 and in 2025:
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 20:32
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 20:33
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 20:34
Sambucket said:
Hyphen, what are you getting at? Your charts lack context. Do you think other companies releasing BEVs make it less likely that Tesla will survive?
Not sure I really get your point.
The scale of the competition on the horizon.Not sure I really get your point.
Tesla fan boi's on here are convinced that their 'domination' of a currently tiny segment will translate to becoming a leading mass producer, and that the traditional manufacturers will struggle to produce EV's to Tesla's level. Whereas all indications are that Tesla will remain a niche manufacturer, and we all know what happens to those- eventually fail or are bought out.
At end of 2019 Tesla will be at 500k production levels.
By 2028 there will (given the 78 gigafactorys planned) be a rough limit of 25 million ev's a year production.
Tesla without any further expansion will have 4% of that market.
Remember Tesla is currently doubling production every year or so.
I'm pretty unclear where a Tesla killer is coming from.
Oh and those fat inefficient audi turds I assume are all parked away from people's homes due to the fire risk awaiting recall. Nice work audi.
By 2028 there will (given the 78 gigafactorys planned) be a rough limit of 25 million ev's a year production.
Tesla without any further expansion will have 4% of that market.
Remember Tesla is currently doubling production every year or so.
I'm pretty unclear where a Tesla killer is coming from.
Oh and those fat inefficient audi turds I assume are all parked away from people's homes due to the fire risk awaiting recall. Nice work audi.
Burwood said:
It’s not a dig. I just don’t know but I think they may have lost money. No one knows except musk and he ain’t saying, yet 
Yeah, really depends what they've spent, euro deliveries cost more but then the average usp is higher and they've reduced costs..Need around 230 million profit to be considered for sp500 inclusion. That would be interesting...
RobDickinson said:
Q1 was a substantial loss for 3 reasons
One off costs
10,000 model 3s built not sold due to international markets
Low s/x sales due to project raven
Q2 broke their sales record by 5k.
Q2 had lower list pricesOne off costs
10,000 model 3s built not sold due to international markets
Low s/x sales due to project raven
Q2 broke their sales record by 5k.
Q2 had higher logistics costs.
Q2 had a delivery mix swing towards the lower price model.
We'll find out on the 24th. All of the above could be savage, or all kf the above could be totally.made irrelevant by production efficiency wins, which have been "next quarter" since about 2017.
Some Gump said:
Haven't tesla themselves forecast a loss?
Yes, but I think that was conservative. No actual numbers involved. "For the second quarter, management said it expected to return to positive free cash flow, but it won't be until Q3 that the company expects to have positive net income."
I'm honestly expecting a roughly break even quarter.
Edited by RobDickinson on Thursday 18th July 21:41
[quote=Some Gump]
Q2 had lower list prices
Q2 had increased logistics costs.
Q2 had a delivery mix swing towards the lower price model./quote]
On those points..
Q2 Tesla increased the base price of the model 3 variants (excluding 35k off men car)
By official statement they reduced logistics costs
I'm not sure what evidence you have for point 3 because almost all the euro cars were high end models, almost no sr+cars have reached Europe, and that's about 30k out of the 77k 3s
Q2 had lower list prices
Q2 had increased logistics costs.
Q2 had a delivery mix swing towards the lower price model./quote]
On those points..
Q2 Tesla increased the base price of the model 3 variants (excluding 35k off men car)
By official statement they reduced logistics costs
I'm not sure what evidence you have for point 3 because almost all the euro cars were high end models, almost no sr+cars have reached Europe, and that's about 30k out of the 77k 3s
hyphen said:
Sambucket said:
Hyphen, what are you getting at? Your charts lack context. Do you think other companies releasing BEVs make it less likely that Tesla will survive?
Not sure I really get your point.
The scale of the competition on the horizon.Not sure I really get your point.
Tesla fan boi's on here are convinced that their 'domination' of a currently tiny segment will translate to becoming a leading mass producer, and that the traditional manufacturers will struggle to produce EV's to Tesla's level. Whereas all indications are that Tesla will remain a niche manufacturer, and we all know what happens to those- eventually fail or are bought out.
But what are "all the indications that Tesla will remain a niche manufacturer?" Few 30 years ago would have predicted the mass-market scale and profitability of today's BMW or Mercedes, for instance. Tesla have a profile that is certainly compatible with those brands' histories. 40 years ago, Audi was an overpriced Ford competitor.
BMW certainly points up the lie in your last line - they were a niche manufacturer, and transitioned into a powerhouse. Their path was not to "eventually fail or ... [be] bought out."
You might point to, say, Saab's as a recent alternate path, but Saab never had a strong brand position (unlike BMW, say, or Tesla). Nobody (least of all Saab themselves) could ever properly articulate what Saab stood for or why customers should buy one. There was no guiding principle, no joined-up objective, nothing about them that was desirable to many car buyers. Some of us loved them for what they were (my family have travelled over 1.5 million miles in Saabs), but that's not at all the same thing.
On Brick Lane tonight, a white 2017 Model X 100D was parked, owned by a chauffeur company who operate only Teslas. Probably 50% of passers by stopped to take a look. At the same time, due to a local Asian wedding, one of the "yoot done good" was parading around in a hired Aventador. That Lamborghini got nary a glance compared to the Tesla.
It should be pointed out that Brick Lane is frequently home to glammed-up Range Rovers, various hired exotica, the odd Bentley or Rolls Royce, some Porsches, etc. Decent cars are not uncommon. Admiring glances are not unusual. But a gaggle of passers-by flocking around a plain white SUV asking "how much" and "how fast" and "only £60k for a 2017 plate with free fuel for life? I'm off to look on Autotrader!" is a little more unusual.
Like it or not, Tesla have achieved traction in the minds of consumers in a way that few non-supercar manufacturers have managed. That has residual value far beyond the current market share or profitability. True, the company can be so mismanaged as to squander that goodwill, but assuming it manages not to do so (and manages also not to burn through cash too fast) then I maintain that Tesla has a great future.
And that doesn't mean they have to outsell VW to achieve it
Here are BMW's sales figures (excluding R-R, Mini, 'bikes) to show a trend (and Tesla's, too) along with a brief look-ahead:| Year | BMW Sales | Tesla Sales |
|---|---|---|
| 1971 | 166,354 | |
| 1972 | 185,188 | |
| 1973 | 193,378 | |
| 1974 | 184,330 | |
| 1975 | 226,688 | |
| 1976 | 275,596 | |
| 1977 | 288,260 | |
| 1978 | 321,196 | |
| 1979 | 335,132 | |
| 1980 | 339,232 | |
| 1981 | 348,946 | |
| 1982 | 377,684 | |
| 1983 | 422,491 | |
| 1984 | 434,266 | |
| 1985 | 440,732 | |
| 1986 | 446,109 | |
| 1987 | 459,502 | |
| 1988 | 486,592 | |
| 1989 | 523,021 | |
| 1990 | 525,866 | |
| 1991 | 552,660 | |
| 1992 | 594,895 | |
| 1993 | 534,397 | |
| 1994 | 573,950 | |
| 1995 | 590,072 | |
| 1996 | 644,107 | |
| 1997 | 675,076 | |
| 1998 | 699,378 | |
| 1999 | 751,272 | |
| 2000 | 822,181 | |
| 2001 | 880,677 | |
| 2002 | 913,225 | |
| 2003 | 928,151 | |
| 2004 | 1,023,583 | |
| 2005 | 1,126,768 | |
| 2006 | 1,185,089 | |
| 2007 | 1,276,793 | |
| 2008 | 1,202,239 | |
| 2009 | 1,068,770 | |
| 2010 | 1,224,280 | |
| 2011 | 1,380,384 | 2,300 * |
| 2012 | 1,540,085 | 2,790 |
| 2013 | 1,655,138 | 22,477 |
| 2014 | 1,811,719 | 31,655 |
| 2015 | 1,905,234 | 50,658 |
| 2016 | 2,003,359 | 76,297 |
| 2017 | 2,088,283 | 103,181 |
| 2018 | 2,125,026 | 245,162 |
| 2019 | 2,160,000 | 400,000 |
| 2020 | 2,200,000 | 600,000 |
Notes:
- Tesla 2011 is cumulative 2008-2011 Roadster sales
- BMW 2019 & 2020 forecasts assumes sustained YOY growth
- Tesla 2019 forecast based on published guidance
- Tesla 2020 forecast assumes no increase in US production, 200k units from China - very tentative!
- BMW results include the joint venture BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd., Shenyang (with for example sals of 2014: 287,466 units, 2015: 287,755 units, 2016: 305,726 units, 2017: 396,749 units, 2018: 491,872 units).
Of course, sales might stagnate, or even fall. But Tesla is already as large as BMW were when they launched the iconic E30 3 series
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