Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
skwdenyer said:
Heres Johnny said:
I don't know what you're going on about but I have trouble not staring at people with a big boil on their face, doesn't make them attractive.
I've got enough data points to make your eyes weep at some of the price changes. A 2017 MX 100D average advertised price has dropped 11k in the last 3 months, it was holding its value fairly well, but its on a free fall at the moment as the P100Ds are tumbling after the price cuts earlier in the year.
These are the average advertsied prices each quarter for the make and model
Advertised price =/= transaction price.I've got enough data points to make your eyes weep at some of the price changes. A 2017 MX 100D average advertised price has dropped 11k in the last 3 months, it was holding its value fairly well, but its on a free fall at the moment as the P100Ds are tumbling after the price cuts earlier in the year.
These are the average advertsied prices each quarter for the make and model
And I’m not at all surprised at those values if they are indeed transaction prices. A Model X is a big chunk of change, it is not a mass market vehicle, and it’s purchase will be driven by sentiment - something that has been very volatile of late.
Forgive me for saying so, but your apparent misapprehension is that deals (and prices) are driven solely or mainly by sentiment about the vehicle itself, and not also (and possibly predominantly) by external forces.
Does that make it “harder” to move on than say a BMW? Undoubtedly, but that was always apparent. Just as values of Astons, McLarens and so on are volatile and demand can be patchy.
To pull this back to the thread title, does this unsurprising feature of the pricey car market indicate an inherent weakness in the brand so much so that it calls into question Tesla’s survival? For me the answer is “not obviously.”
I specifically said advertised prices because I know full well that advertised does not equal transaction price
One thing for sure however is if the advertised price has fallen by 11k the transaction tin price will also have come down.
I could also quite happily publish the average listing time for a car back then and now as that gives a barometer for ease of sale. But you can pay for that like the dealers do.
Take the two in combination though and we can see the price maintained a heathy level until recently where both the listing price and time to sell are heading in a bad direction for the seller. What was the external force you are thinking of? Not the ipace, that launched last year and no blip on the MX price. The price change is driven more by Tesla slashing the P car prices which depressed all models below would be my guess. But before then, for a year, the prices held up very well. It’s the change in behaviour that’s significant.
A bmw 7 series is bad, ive not said it wasn’t, but you’re looking at the first order analysis of the numbers and change. A 7 series has always been shocking, it’s why BMW discount by 20% on new and from that level the depreciation isnt as marked as you might think. Volume of supply is also very light on the 7, it’s not really a comparison worth making.
jjwilde said:
Trump had/has a Tesla before he was president. So I think the redneck types are ok with Tesla.
The Tesla truck would pull a boat sure, but you might want to look at the Rivian truck for now.
Oh and I found this, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQBRyR1JGBo a ModelX pulling a 287,000pound plane. A record apparently.
A fat bloke in a wooly hat towed an aircraft just using a ladder to get started. I really don't think a Model X towing an aircraft is any more relevant to towing a boat day to day on the roads The Tesla truck would pull a boat sure, but you might want to look at the Rivian truck for now.
Oh and I found this, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQBRyR1JGBo a ModelX pulling a 287,000pound plane. A record apparently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_jEUpDP2U0
jjwilde said:
I just wish the ModelS prices would fall more! I expected there to be a lot of them in the £20-30k bracket by now (I was basing my guesses on the 7 series) but the damn things just have not budged much in 2 years. Oh well bring on my 3 (poverty spec).
Exactly used S/Xs both should be ALOT cheaper.Our previous X would have been nearly 2.5 years old by now, and if it followed traditional deprecation should be not far off £35k, but good luck finding a used X for £45k let alone £35k.
Used EVs prices are all nuts still, buying new/pre reg/ex demo makes much more sense if you can afford it.
When we got our X in 2017 I did a quick 'sense' check on whats the going rate for a 7 seater family SUV, £70k appeared to be about the benchmark for Q7/RRs etc.
.
Looking at Autotrader today 2017 Q7s in similar spec are £35k+, so bang on line with hitting 50% depreciation at 3 years, so £30k in 2020.
A new LR X before options is now £82k, you have to be crazy to pay anything close to £70k for a used 2 year old 100D, even £60k is too much, prices need to be under £50k to make any sense buying used over new.
Used Tesla prices have a long way to drop before they make sense as used buys.
.Looking at Autotrader today 2017 Q7s in similar spec are £35k+, so bang on line with hitting 50% depreciation at 3 years, so £30k in 2020.
A new LR X before options is now £82k, you have to be crazy to pay anything close to £70k for a used 2 year old 100D, even £60k is too much, prices need to be under £50k to make any sense buying used over new.
Used Tesla prices have a long way to drop before they make sense as used buys.
Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 20th July 19:31
Witchfinder said:
Nobody pays list for an Audi of any sort.
Even with 20% discount new, a £35k Q7 now equates to 37.5% depreciation, which for industry standards is amazing given its a mass produced family wagon. By the same figures our old X should be on sale for £44k.Can you show me a used X for £44k??
Which ever way you look at it used S/X are way way over priced, and have plenty of room to fall.
Feel free to go and buy a used 100D X for £70k, but when a new one is £83k that really makes no sense at all.
gangzoom said:
When we got our X in 2017 I did a quick 'sense' check on whats the going rate for a 7 seater family SUV, £70k appeared to be about the benchmark for Q7/RRs etc.
[Img]https://live.staticflickr.com/2853/34065826985_116798c8fb_z_d.jpg[/thumb].
Looking at Autotrader today 2017 Q7s in similar spec are £35k+, so bang on line with hitting 50% depreciation at 3 years, so £30k in 2020.
A new LR X before options is now £82k, you have to be crazy to pay anything close to £70k for a used 2 year old 100D, even £60k is too much, prices need to be under £50k to make any sense buying used over new.
Used Tesla prices have a long way to drop before they make sense as used buys.
Equally if you looked a premium sports saloons/hatches like the Porsche Panamera v MS, even the diesel, they’ve held their value better than an MS over the last 2-3 years.[Img]https://live.staticflickr.com/2853/34065826985_116798c8fb_z_d.jpg[/thumb].
Looking at Autotrader today 2017 Q7s in similar spec are £35k+, so bang on line with hitting 50% depreciation at 3 years, so £30k in 2020.
A new LR X before options is now £82k, you have to be crazy to pay anything close to £70k for a used 2 year old 100D, even £60k is too much, prices need to be under £50k to make any sense buying used over new.
Used Tesla prices have a long way to drop before they make sense as used buys.
Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 20th July 19:31
That wasn't the point I was making really. The Model X is, in my opinion, massively overpriced anyway. It commands a premium because it's a rarity, and because EVs in general have strong residuals. Q7s are ten a penny, mostly diesel (which has fallen out of favour), and start cheaper anyway.
Witchfinder said:
That wasn't the point I was making really. The Model X is, in my opinion, massively overpriced anyway.
Thats exactly my point!! Not just Teslas but ALL EVs are way overpriced which is why none are really selling. Personally I have no problems paying early adopter tax for new tech, but most people aren't so silly.
Just look at the MGZ thread, people are seriously talking about paying over £20k+ for a MG, that even brand new/un released the manufacture is throwing in a £3.5k 'discount'.
People need their heads checking, £20k+ for a MG, £30k+ for a Hyundai/Kia hatchback, its like reverse Pistonheads.com!! People moan about EVs having no 'soul', at least with a brand like Tesla I cannot see how anyone can claim that just based on the amount of 'emotion' on this thread. But a MG EV, seriously that is literally a box of batteries on wheels, its going to be nice am sure, and have the character/soul of any other current MG.
I love EVs, but they simply haven't got any more accessible to the mass market since 2015. No wonder EVs still sell tiny numbers, and will remain so till prices become actually realistic.
We paid £13.5k for a fully loaded top spec pre reg Honda Civic a while a ago, which I argue is still a more desirable car than any MG/Kia/Hyundai, that is how much 200 miles+ range EVs need to cost for sales to really take off.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 21st July 06:35
On the front of used Tesla's incase people aren't aware something is brewing regarding the older 85kWh battery packs, which up untill now has been considered the 'best' battery pack Tesla had developed. Suffering none of the early degredation seen in 90 packs and even no SC throttling seen with ALL current 75/100 packs.
However whilst investigating Tesla fires in China Tesla have clearly uncovered something. Software pushed to cars have now cut usable kWh and reduced charging speed. Maybe Audi aren't nuts to restrict the use of the eTron to 80% of the pack
.
So anyone looking at a used 85S or the rare 75 S/X with a 85 pack need to keep an eye on how this is going to pan out.
https://insideevs.com/news/360878/model-s-fire-upd...
I think its also a good example on how no one actually knows the effects of 200/300KW+ on future battery life. Woudlnt surprise me if Tesla starts throttling SC speeds on all their cars, even though they just sent out a software update to increase speeds.
However whilst investigating Tesla fires in China Tesla have clearly uncovered something. Software pushed to cars have now cut usable kWh and reduced charging speed. Maybe Audi aren't nuts to restrict the use of the eTron to 80% of the pack
.So anyone looking at a used 85S or the rare 75 S/X with a 85 pack need to keep an eye on how this is going to pan out.
https://insideevs.com/news/360878/model-s-fire-upd...
I think its also a good example on how no one actually knows the effects of 200/300KW+ on future battery life. Woudlnt surprise me if Tesla starts throttling SC speeds on all their cars, even though they just sent out a software update to increase speeds.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 21st July 06:54
gangzoom said:
Thats exactly my point!!
Not just Teslas but ALL EVs are way overpriced which is why none are really selling. Personally I have no problems paying early adopter tax for new tech, but most people aren't so silly.
I agree, but it's not as clear cut when you take running costs into account, especially in a territory where fuel is very expensive like the UK. For me, that's worth £2,500 per year. It's still not enough, but it narrows the gap.Not just Teslas but ALL EVs are way overpriced which is why none are really selling. Personally I have no problems paying early adopter tax for new tech, but most people aren't so silly.
gangzoom said:
On the front of used Tesla's incase people aren't aware something is brewing regarding the older 85kWh battery packs, which up untill now has been considered the 'best' battery pack Tesla had developed. Suffering none of the early degredation seen in 90 packs and even no SC throttling seen with ALL current 75/100 packs.
However whilst investigating Tesla fires in China Tesla have clearly uncovered something. Software pushed to cars have now cut usable kWh and reduced charging speed. Maybe Audi aren't nuts to restrict the use of the eTron to 80% of the pack.
So anyone looking at a used 85S or the rare 75 S/X with a 85 pack need to keep an eye on how this is going to pan out.
https://insideevs.com/news/360878/model-s-fire-upd...
I think its also a good example on how no one actually knows the effects of 200/300KW+ on future battery life. Woudlnt surprise me if Tesla starts throttling SC speeds on all their cars, even though they just sent out a software update to increase speeds.
Haha it's like forced apple updates thst pwn your iphone performance "for your benefit" about 2 months before it's 2nd birthday (conveniently allowing you to upgrade to the new one when your contract is up).However whilst investigating Tesla fires in China Tesla have clearly uncovered something. Software pushed to cars have now cut usable kWh and reduced charging speed. Maybe Audi aren't nuts to restrict the use of the eTron to 80% of the pack
.So anyone looking at a used 85S or the rare 75 S/X with a 85 pack need to keep an eye on how this is going to pan out.
https://insideevs.com/news/360878/model-s-fire-upd...
I think its also a good example on how no one actually knows the effects of 200/300KW+ on future battery life. Woudlnt surprise me if Tesla starts throttling SC speeds on all their cars, even though they just sent out a software update to increase speeds.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 21st July 06:54
RobDickinson said:
Cheaper used EVs get the more they will push out and down ICE car values.
Here you have $10k leafs, vs anything else to drive round a city that would cost you that in just fuel over 3-4 years.
Fuel cost based on how many miles per year? If just driving round a city, low?Here you have $10k leafs, vs anything else to drive round a city that would cost you that in just fuel over 3-4 years.
Also with NZ I would imagine people travel more rural regularly, so is the charger network any good yet? And how much is the cost?
RobDickinson said:
I always find it funny how their advantage is greater than they've been making the MS when companies like BMW have been making the i3 for years and is a much more mature car than the roadster ever was. Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff