Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
p1stonhead said:
The heck has happened this month?!
An awful lot of FUD form the shorts...Oh and Elons twitter rants.
That and a new production line flown in from Europe and setup, already running, 5000 model 3's per week looks easily achievable soon and 7000+ on the horizon. Plus 4000 redundancies.
As I said several pages ago, 5k a week is coming, and that is enough for tesla to be profitable.
Once the fear of bankruptcy has gone the clever shorts will take the loss and bail. The stupid ones are holding on and trying to create more media bulls
t.They even tried to claim the new production line ( with finished model 3 dual motor performance version) was faked lol
RobDickinson said:
How going long works.. Aka boring usual investment.
You buy a share at say 300, hope it increases in value, if it does you can sell at a profit. Sometimes you get dividends.
Max possible to gain unlimited.
Max possible to loose is 300.
How going short works. Aka betting on failure.
Someone else buys a share. Share price gets to 300.
They loan you their share for an interest payment, say 10 percent pa.
You sell that share for 300, put that in a bank or whatever.
At some future point you have to buy a share back to return to the original owner. You hope the share price has fallen.
Max to gain is 300
Max to loose is ~unlimited.
Now when you short stock you need to keep funds on hand with the broker to cover your position. So unlimited really just means whatever funds you have allocated. Once you reach this limit the broker automatically buys a share back and hands it over to the original owner.
If this happens at 600 you've lost 300 plus interest. Plus this adds demand and pushes up the price of the stock.
As the price goes up this forces more shorts to bail, putting more upward pressure on the price.
For Tesla about a third of the liquid stock in the market is shorted, 12bn worth. So when this happens you will see a short squeeze that pushes out more and more short sellers, because that much stock buying pushes the price up a lot.
Every 20 on tsla is another billion lost by the shorts...
The short seller isn't an investor, doesn't own any stock.
What's the shorts reasoning? We'll up until last month it was Tesla wouldn't be able to make enough model 3s to meet demand and be profitable.
This month that's changed. Now they can make enough cars but there's no demand.
Really... Apparently. Once the order book is complete no one else will want a model 3.. fkwits.
Tesla seem to be able to sell S and X without a problem the 3 will sell just fine. Plus the short situation will be screwed before Tesla run out of current m3 orders anyhow.
I don’t like shorts and I don’t, but there’s another aspect as you have put a very anti short view. Shares are a mixture of fundamentals and sentiment, sentiment being the belief in how well a company’s fundamentals will improve over time. Teslas 40B valuation is largely predicated on sentiment, the fundamentals (ie how they are trading today) is piss poor. It’s all about potential. You buy a share at say 300, hope it increases in value, if it does you can sell at a profit. Sometimes you get dividends.
Max possible to gain unlimited.
Max possible to loose is 300.
How going short works. Aka betting on failure.
Someone else buys a share. Share price gets to 300.
They loan you their share for an interest payment, say 10 percent pa.
You sell that share for 300, put that in a bank or whatever.
At some future point you have to buy a share back to return to the original owner. You hope the share price has fallen.
Max to gain is 300
Max to loose is ~unlimited.
Now when you short stock you need to keep funds on hand with the broker to cover your position. So unlimited really just means whatever funds you have allocated. Once you reach this limit the broker automatically buys a share back and hands it over to the original owner.
If this happens at 600 you've lost 300 plus interest. Plus this adds demand and pushes up the price of the stock.
As the price goes up this forces more shorts to bail, putting more upward pressure on the price.
For Tesla about a third of the liquid stock in the market is shorted, 12bn worth. So when this happens you will see a short squeeze that pushes out more and more short sellers, because that much stock buying pushes the price up a lot.
Every 20 on tsla is another billion lost by the shorts...
The short seller isn't an investor, doesn't own any stock.
What's the shorts reasoning? We'll up until last month it was Tesla wouldn't be able to make enough model 3s to meet demand and be profitable.
This month that's changed. Now they can make enough cars but there's no demand.
Really... Apparently. Once the order book is complete no one else will want a model 3.. f
kwits. Tesla seem to be able to sell S and X without a problem the 3 will sell just fine. Plus the short situation will be screwed before Tesla run out of current m3 orders anyhow.
When sentiment is sky high, good news just results in the conversion of sentiment to actual, performance.. the product is the same. And over the last few years this has resulted in a relatively u spectacular growth (the Nasdaq as a whole has outperformed Tesla). So good news is has little upside, but if you can shake the sentiment, and the sentiment falls, so will the price, hence the spamming of bad news.
An example of that, the share price was actually falling and is still below the point it was before M3 production commenced. The reality of M3 production hasn’t boosted the share price. It’s going up now but that’s more in response to Musk finally admitted his solar city bail out was a mistake and cutting costs there ruthlessly and zip to do with M3.
Another example is the old saying buy on the rumour, sell on the fact. Rumour is the sentiment good stuff will happen.
Tesla has a massive amount of positive sentiment propping up the share price - it’s all about what might happen, way beyond every other company and the shorts are hoping they can burst a bit if that, and for the last 6 months or so they’ve been winning until this week.
RobDickinson said:
500 model 3's a day this week so 3500 or so a week. Looking at 5000 a week soon.
They need somewhere around 2500-3000 to break even, 5000 would put them in profit just as predicted..
Looks like those shorts will be burned yet again.
Personally I think shorting a manufacturer with full order books as they scale up production particularly stupid.
15th may...They need somewhere around 2500-3000 to break even, 5000 would put them in profit just as predicted..
Looks like those shorts will be burned yet again.
Personally I think shorting a manufacturer with full order books as they scale up production particularly stupid.
Only just. Expect it to break 385 high soon.
Its true the shares dropped after the m3 launch because production didnt ramp as expected. Its still not going to reach what was talked about last year but 5000+ is enough to make a profit, for tesla not to go bust and to continue to increase production.
Its true the shares dropped after the m3 launch because production didnt ramp as expected. Its still not going to reach what was talked about last year but 5000+ is enough to make a profit, for tesla not to go bust and to continue to increase production.
I agree, I don’t see them going bust at all, Musk has already sent a number of messages about getting costs under control, that’s sensible even if a little boring. But being boring will also push against the shorters as it’s effectively delivering on some of those promises and leaving less to chip away at.
Looking at the massive effort there has been on youtube of late trying to sway public opinion and build faith in Elon Musk I'm not surprised about the stock price . Tesla have clearly been reading the Trump playbook on how to spin negative press into "Fake News"
Whilst the stock price is interesting you suggest imminent demise when it drops or crow about how Tesla has been turned around when it rises , its the balance sheet that will ultimately demonstrate that
Whilst the stock price is interesting you suggest imminent demise when it drops or crow about how Tesla has been turned around when it rises , its the balance sheet that will ultimately demonstrate that
Youtube?
You've missed the sustained attack via pretty much every other media recently?
In the last couple of months on bbc tesla negative stories:
Tesla on fire: UK director Michael Morris' car bursts into flames
Elon Musk fends off challenge to Tesla control
Tesla hit parked police car 'while using Autopilot'
Tesla Autopilot: Name deceptive, claim groups
Elon Musk to fix Tesla 'braking flaw'
Tesla's Elon Musk overhauls management
Is Tesla heading for trouble?
Business Matters: Tesla Reports Worst Ever Quarterly Loss
etc
You've missed the sustained attack via pretty much every other media recently?
In the last couple of months on bbc tesla negative stories:
Tesla on fire: UK director Michael Morris' car bursts into flames
Elon Musk fends off challenge to Tesla control
Tesla hit parked police car 'while using Autopilot'
Tesla Autopilot: Name deceptive, claim groups
Elon Musk to fix Tesla 'braking flaw'
Tesla's Elon Musk overhauls management
Is Tesla heading for trouble?
Business Matters: Tesla Reports Worst Ever Quarterly Loss
etc
Edited by RobDickinson on Tuesday 19th June 10:33
RobDickinson said:
Youtube?
You've missed the sustained attack via pretty much every other media recently?
No I have seen respected business analysts give their opinions on a company yet to turn a profit , yes however I am now seeing a great deal of pro Elon Musk videos on youtube, one of them has this tagline on their channel You've missed the sustained attack via pretty much every other media recently?
'Never bet against Elon Musk.'
'In Musk We Trust'
Teslas market Cap is 62B, BMW is 54B - there's no way you can equate the balance sheet, product range, engineering depth, quality of supply chain, or profitability of the two, yet Tesla is higher. Its potential, its not yet real. I don't think anyone should be under an illusion that if it's wasn't for the negative press the share price would be higher still. That doesn't mean Tesla are in trouble etc, many many many people are betting that they will deliver on their potential - this is proven by the share price giving a market cap of 62B. Its the nature of stock markets.
If Teslas share price halved and them stemmed the cash burn, they'd still happily exist indefinitely.
I read something regarding the need to scale their infrastructure rapidly. With the M3 coming it will double the number of Tesla cars out there within 12 months or so, that means twice the service centres, tice the super chargers (if they want superchargers to remain a differentiator to the competition), double the throughput of the supply chain to get spares where they are needed, double the trained mechanics.. double everything that's taken 6-7 years to get here, and here being a position thats struggling massively with current demand. Plenty of stories over multiple weeks waiting for an appointment for a warranty fix. Tesla therefore would be wise to switch some focus to this rather than yet another model before they lose their customer loyalty.
If Teslas share price halved and them stemmed the cash burn, they'd still happily exist indefinitely.
I read something regarding the need to scale their infrastructure rapidly. With the M3 coming it will double the number of Tesla cars out there within 12 months or so, that means twice the service centres, tice the super chargers (if they want superchargers to remain a differentiator to the competition), double the throughput of the supply chain to get spares where they are needed, double the trained mechanics.. double everything that's taken 6-7 years to get here, and here being a position thats struggling massively with current demand. Plenty of stories over multiple weeks waiting for an appointment for a warranty fix. Tesla therefore would be wise to switch some focus to this rather than yet another model before they lose their customer loyalty.
I was in a Tesla store yesterday, whilst the interior isn’t shabby it certainly isn’t a VAG quality (just a first impression) and the dash....a massive screen in the centre Oh yuk
Now a jumbo IPad may be the height of tech but it is somewhat distracting. Have to say the design of these are not for me and once they become common place my guess is Tesla will just be another supplier of automotives
It did make me chuckle somewhat when the sales woman claimed Tesla did not use Marketing to sell their cars.......
Now a jumbo IPad may be the height of tech but it is somewhat distracting. Have to say the design of these are not for me and once they become common place my guess is Tesla will just be another supplier of automotives
It did make me chuckle somewhat when the sales woman claimed Tesla did not use Marketing to sell their cars.......
Toaster said:
I was in a Tesla store yesterday, whilst the interior isn’t shabby it certainly isn’t a VAG quality (just a first impression) and the dash....a massive screen in the centre Oh yuk
They're american and pretty much all american cars are built to the same quality. The massive screen is more than a massive screen, its a change of ethos in how you provide control to features in the car, they add extra software buttons from time to time, something you simply can't do in a traditional car.The simple answer is if you don't like it, don't buy it. I don't like Audis having owned one. I don't like Mercs either for the same reason. But these things come and go, be boring if we all thought the same.
Toaster said:
It did make me chuckle somewhat when the sales woman claimed Tesla did not use Marketing to sell their cars.......
I think she meant to say they don't advertise in the press, its slightly different. They have for a number of years done pop up stands, taken retail outlets, gone to shows etc, they just don't pay for a full colour spread in Car magazine. Heres Johnny said:
I think she meant to say they don't advertise in the press, its slightly different. They have for a number of years done pop up stands, taken retail outlets, gone to shows etc, they just don't pay for a full colour spread in Car magazine.
Or sponsor racetracks, or F1 teams, yada yada.Personally I think they have gotten extremely far all things considered.
In the past 10-20 years we have been looking at non stop conslidations and a brand new company coming out of nowhere was unthinkable.
Toaster said:
I was in a Tesla store yesterday, whilst the interior isn’t shabby it certainly isn’t a VAG quality (just a first impression) and the dash....a massive screen in the centre Oh yuk
Now a jumbo IPad may be the height of tech but it is somewhat distracting. Have to say the design of these are not for me and once they become common place my guess is Tesla will just be another supplier of automotives
It did make me chuckle somewhat when the sales woman claimed Tesla did not use Marketing to sell their cars.......
I have a Model X. As I said in one of these threads, I think it is a £60k car in terms of what you get (size, features, luxury, build quality) for which they charge £100k. Is it worth it? Yes and no. It is for the cool factor/first adopter/environmental smugness/0-60 hilarity/talking point/funky experience/cheap running costs. I've never known my wife get so attached to a car in the 30 years I've known her. But it is silly money if you have to count every penny. The looks and interior are marmite too. Now a jumbo IPad may be the height of tech but it is somewhat distracting. Have to say the design of these are not for me and once they become common place my guess is Tesla will just be another supplier of automotives
It did make me chuckle somewhat when the sales woman claimed Tesla did not use Marketing to sell their cars.......
Not for everyone but I was slightly surprised how much I have liked the car (it would be my first choice for a family trip out of my little fleet), especially as buying it was the worst car experience I've had in my life by a comfortable factor.
AstonZagato said:
I have a Model X. As I said in one of these threads, I think it is a £60k car in terms of what you get (size, features, luxury, build quality) for which they charge £100k.
And at one point Tesla did charge a 'reasonable' amount for the X, which is why we ordered one instead of a S. I looked at the possibility of changing to a P100D X recently, but to spend nearly £70k more on basically an identical car in-exchange for a 2 second drop in 0-60 times.....I wish I was rich enough to jusifty that kind of spending on a car
.
AstonZagato said:
I have a Model X. As I said in one of these threads, I think it is a £60k car in terms of what you get (size, features, luxury, build quality) for which they charge £100k. Is it worth it? Yes and no. It is for the cool factor/first adopter/environmental smugness/0-60 hilarity/talking point/funky experience/cheap running costs. I've never known my wife get so attached to a car in the 30 years I've known her. But it is silly money if you have to count every penny. The looks and interior are marmite too.
Not for everyone but I was slightly surprised how much I have liked the car (it would be my first choice for a family trip out of my little fleet), especially as buying it was the worst car experience I've had in my life by a comfortable factor.
I wouldn't ever say that someone shouldn't buy one, and clearly you have found it a delight to own. I like Marmite but not this car, would you swap it for say a Jaguar I Pace in the future?Not for everyone but I was slightly surprised how much I have liked the car (it would be my first choice for a family trip out of my little fleet), especially as buying it was the worst car experience I've had in my life by a comfortable factor.
Heres Johnny said:
Toaster said:
I was in a Tesla store yesterday, whilst the interior isn’t shabby it certainly isn’t a VAG quality (just a first impression) and the dash....a massive screen in the centre Oh yuk
They're american and pretty much all american cars are built to the same quality. The massive screen is more than a massive screen, its a change of ethos in how you provide control to features in the car, they add extra software buttons from time to time, something you simply can't do in a traditional car.The simple answer is if you don't like it, don't buy it. I don't like Audis having owned one. I don't like Mercs either for the same reason. But these things come and go, be boring if we all thought the same.
Toaster said:
It did make me chuckle somewhat when the sales woman claimed Tesla did not use Marketing to sell their cars.......
I think she meant to say they don't advertise in the press, its slightly different. They have for a number of years done pop up stands, taken retail outlets, gone to shows etc, they just don't pay for a full colour spread in Car magazine. I know TESLA like some American companies do take a differing route where they spend their marketing budget but a pop up stand or a retail outlet is still marketing.
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